Player Evaluation

Hollinger’s Player Projections

To read the full 2009-10 projections you’ll need to be an ESPN Insider. Here are some mini summaries for a couple players, just a little taste.

Jarrett Jack

Combo guard who can defend 2s. Can take turns playing the point for short stints with the second unit; tendency to dominate the ball won’t be as much of a factor with the Raps. Overpaid for a player with middling production by focusing on the final two months of the season and ignoring the rest. Likely to produce a PER in the low teens and about 15pts/40min. That’s worth having but others do it for less than $20M.

Amir Johnson

Should be Bosh’s backup; only drawback being his skinny build worsens the team’s existing lack of muscle up front. Terrible foul rate will limit him to 15 mpg, his rebounding and shot blocking can be a major asset with the second unit. Look for him to shoot near 60 percent, and don’t be surprised if his PER recovers to the mid- to high-teens.

Antoine Wright

No chance of starting 53 games again. Holds some value as a deep reserve because he’s willing to defend, but that’s about it. He’s a 12th man who produces D-League-caliber output every year and is lucky to have stuck around for this long. If DeRozan isn’t ready or injuries hit, could get 10-15 minutes, but otherwise he’ll sit.

Andrea Bargnani

Defensive considerations could limit Bargnani’s playing time. If he can’t score, the Raps will be tempted to play Rasho or Evans heavier minutes, leaving Bargnani in the high 20s or low 30s. As a result, I doubt his per-game averages will expand much beyond last season’s, despite the Raptors’ apparent confidence in what he’ll accomplish over the next half decade.

DeMar DeRozan:

Turned pro despite ordinary freshman season and ranked only 53rd out of 94 prospects. Athleticism failed to manifest itself on the court, as his rebounding, blocks and steals numbers were nothing special. Rep of a good midrange shooter but shot 16.7% on college 3s and 64.6% from the line. Ballhandling numbers were a huge red flag, very negative pure point rating is a big problem if he’s depending on slashing to the rim in the pros. More athlete than player, riskiest pick in the lottery.

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