Bad without Bargnani


The Raptors’ offence certainly suffers without their main weapon.

Source: Raw data from basketball-reference.com

The Raptors have lost all four games without Bargnani and its quite clear they miss his offensive production. Results may be skewed somewhat by the small sample size (4 games) which included a road loss against against a great defensive club (Chicago). However, its clear watching the games (I know, its crazy, but some stats guys actually watch the games) the ball movement suffers and defenses can fully focus on players like DeRozan (shooting 38% in the last four) while players like James Johnson end up forcing it somewhat (also shooting 38% + 7 turnovers in the last four).

Find minutes for Forbes

I’m in the “well, it can’t hurt” camp of finding more minutes for Gary Forbes. Sure, he’s still making some mistakes, but he rates quite well against others that he is fighting against for minutes.


Source: Raw data from basketball-reference.com

Sure, some of his minutes were in garbage time, but his Assist %, Rebounding %, Steal % and (low) Turnover % are all near/at the top of the group. This is a great combination. Find him more minutes.

DeRozan’s (not) Driving

The first two charts show the trends for DeRozan taking it to the rim – the chart on the left shows his free throw attempts (per 40 min, in order to “normalize” his rookie minutes) while the chart on the right shows his field goal attempts “at the rim” (again, per 40 minutes). Let’s assume all his free throw attempts were from driving (not the best assumption, but allow me for these purposes). By adding the two together, we find that DeRozan is attacking the rim about 18% less often this year.


Source: Raw data from hoopdata.com

While I realize Coach Casey has not had a lot of time to work on the offensive sets, I would like to see them prioritize helping DeRozan attack more often, opposed to…


Source: Raw data from hoopdata.com

… still settling for long 2s (16-23 feet). While he has “replaced” 0.5 long 2 attempts per game with a lot more 3s (as we pushed for last year), he is still taking too many attempts at this inefficient distance. DeRozan is only shooting 27% from this distance this year. It needs to change – the number of attempts that is. I’d much rather him continue to shoot more threes than these long 2s as well as obviously attack the basket more (not always an easy option, mind you).

All-Star Anthem


Andrea Bargnani has stepped up this year and is starting to get some recognition :)

Vote for him for the 2012 All-Star game. No, he will not likely have enough votes to start, but his effort should still be recognized by the Raptors’ faithful.

Forum Thread

Questions? Arsenalist introduced a forum thread dedicated to “Statophile Q&A”. Most often I’ll try to offer a quick analysis/reponse right in the thread, while other questions I’ll save until a full Statopile post. If you prefer to send questions privately, you’re welcome to email me at tomliston [at] gmail [dot] com or find me on Twitter (@Liston).

  • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

    Don’t vote for AB as an All Star- the fan base should show BC what we think of his BullChit team led by AB by not supporting any of it’s related particulars.

    AB is called ‘No Star’ for a reason he would be an All Star in a 10 game season.

    DD excels in an uptempo offense but struggles in a half court based offense next to a pg that can’t create for others just mostly passes the ball around the perimeter with the occasional pick ‘n roll lob to Amir (which teams have scouted and taken away as of late).

    The Raptors will suck with and without AB it’s just the level of suckage that’s why BC should trade high on AB and reap the harvest of a potential AB trade.

    • WJF

      Man I would hate to be you, so much anger in your life. 

      • AB7.38pt.on.CB4

        Don’t feed a pig

        • Cdhall

          i agree with you! i m getting to the point where i m considering not returning to this site because of BCStefan.i wonder how many others are feeling this way?

          • Raps4Ever

            I think many already have. Maybe emails may help? Doubt it.

            • what the

              the ones who don’t watch raptors games because their hero isn’t playing

          • what the

            buddy don’t do that, let me tell you what to do just call the police and tell them how BCStefan. held his shotgun to your head and force you to read his frigging post every flipping day and while you’re at it tell them about his super power the one he used to prevent you from bypassing his post because i think there is a law against that (making someone read something that they don’t want to) and also preventing someone from pressing the arrow down key with his jedi shit, are all f_nb_ys this dumb or as BCStafan. would say{{{{{{{stuck on stupid}}}}}}

            • Cdhall

              you totally missed the point. arrow down only brings me to more dumb comments and rebuttals.i don’t have time or patients for such BS and that is why i m leaving this site!!!!

              • what the

                Well their this site JT something the guy always remove the comments but i think you would love it and i think he would leave your comment up as you would have the same view as him

      • Kells

        I think “BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!” kicks his cat when he comes home from work (assuming he has a job).

        • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

          Now I have a cat?smdh

          Wow.

          It’s make believe time in order to make your self serving posts believeable.lmfao

          I have Stans….lol

      • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

        Let you tell it.lol

    • FAQ

      Bargs is an All-Star …. DD is a Sh!t Star …. Ratpors need more decent internationals.

      • DeMar DeRozan

        your a fucking moron you should go kill yourself. No ones wants this team to be full of euro’s fuck that. We need some niggas from the hood

        • DC

          Demar is that you? lol

        • Lorenzo

          Lol. Go to sleep kid

    • http://twitter.com/Liston Tom Liston

      Thank you. Its this type of exceptional feedback makes it all worthwhile.

      • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

        I’m glad then that I don’t look for your approval- btw 100% bullchit statophile today…..step your game up, buddy.

        An asshole is still an asshole no matter the type of (bull)shit it produces…..flush………….

        • Nilanka15

          Just curious?  What makes the article “bullshit”?  The numbers weren’t made up, were they?

          • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

            Curiosity killed the cat- recognize, suckas like you are played out like Atari……

            • Nilanka15

              Atari’s the shit.  Your response is not.

              • Milesboyer

                Can we not ban this guy (BCStefan……) for the betterment of the forum, it’s embarrassingly immature when he posts.

                • Pizzaman

                  Agreed. This is why sometimes it’s very hard to read all the comments because they’re always infested with garbage from one or two real losers who have nothing better to do than ruin everyone’s day.

                • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

                  Can’t stand another man’s opinion on Raptors basketball so you want the powers that be to ban him?lmfao @ u

                  Btw- who is we? Split personality?
                   

                • Kells

                  It’s not about opinions, objectivity is welcomed here, makes it less boring. 

                  You, on the other hand, post paragraphs upon paragraphs of the same nonsense every single day. You haven’t gone one day without talking about BC and his “bullchit culture change” to the point where it becomes spam, and you state it all with conviction. 

                  Go ahead and post, but change it up a little, because frankly, people are finding it repetitive and boring. 

                • what the

                  arrow down don’t hurt your eyes or are you stuck on stupid

                • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

                  Who are you to tell me what to and what not to post in this forum?

                  You sound a little anal buddy.

                  Don’t like what I post skip it- str8 up & down, clown.

                • what the

                  i bet they (f_n b_ys) would love it if you would sit around with them talking about the player who is out with a FAKE injury about how well he’s playing and his leadership and how much the raptors miss him and how we could have won more games if he was playing lala da-d-da

            • Ryan

              Asking a valid question makes him a ‘sucka’ now, does it?

              • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

                Acting like a sucka makes him a sucka…..

          • Kells

            Well to him, any numbers/stats/facts that disprove his moronic sentiments=bullshit. 

            It’s essentially one of the signs of someone in denial, or a troll.

            • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

              Let you tell it.lol

    • cesco

      You see Gotstogo , you are slowing descending into a madness with no return . You went into a diatribe against Andrea (and defending DD) instead of commenting on the article . You then started insulting Tom who put up valid and insightful stats  . You are unstable , perhaps living in an asylum or getting close to it .

      • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

        I believe that Tom insulted me 1st with his comment to my initial post….but let you tell it.lmfao

        • CaseyDaMan

          It sure is an insult calling your feedback worthwhile. Grow up little boy.

          • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

            Boys play with toys my name is Sammy I play with ya mammy…..lmfao @ u

          • what the

            POOKA stop telling people to grow up. fool

            • p00ka

              okay BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!! alias

              • what the

                you can’t hide POOK I know your shit anywhere

              • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

                Let me assure you that I don’t change my sign in name & then post under another alias as you seemingly do- I bet a mod or two would have exposed that particular if it were a true fact. 

                I am not- what the.

                Thus you can end you Sherlock Holmes expedition complete with false accusations and assume your regular daily Bargnani nut hugging position as a fan BOY not man fan of the Raptors.

                That being said I have learned that not only women are called or act like bitches but in the words of Ice T some men act like Bitches II http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEhRM-JmXSk if this doesn’t apply to you please disregard but if the shoe fits wear it well.

      • onemanweave

        Don’t feed a pig.

        • AB7.38pt.on.CB4

          and + 1

        • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

          Your mother’s full of seamen, no worries……

    • Nelsonlee690

      Did AB sleep with ur girl (assuming u have a girlfriend/wife… Mqybe assuming too much?) or something? Why so much hate dude? Even u must see that AB is playing much better no?!

      • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

        Why you so worried about me and not the Raptors?lmfao

        AB is currently injured.smdh

        • what the

          FAKE INJURY and i know he’ll be back for the NETS game Jan.29 to pump up the stats for his allstar bid which will never happen even with people in 3 countries voting for him Galo has a better chance of getting the nod

    • Bob

      Your fucking retarted. First, your name is retarted, second, Bargs is good and the Raptors almost have that perfect mix of euros and americans, and DeMar isn’t even worthy of 3rd class meals with the way he’s playing

      • what the

        3rd class meal do you mean like that primo pasta

    • Lorenzo

      “Don’t vote for AB as an All Star- the fan base should show BC what we
      think of his BullChit team led by AB by not supporting any of it’s
      related particulars.”

      HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

    • Juicy

      Nearing 24 hours from this comment with many, many replies, and not a single “like”.  Yeah, but good comment any way.

      • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

        I must get a ‘like(s)’ what will I do if no one likes what I post???????lmfao

  • SitnonDfence

    Troll fest Begin. Sure didnt take him long ^^

    • CaseyDaMan

      This Gots2Go clown is a waste of oxygen. Spooky too: on the other board he seems convinced I’m someone else he knows. lol

      • what the

        pooka mon why did you change you handle? please tell me

        • p00ka

          okay BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!! alias

      • what the

        pooka mon different handle the same childish  pooh!!

      • what the

        could be just the same shit form a different asshole

  • Balls of Steel

    Man, I remember when Vince Carter stopped “dunking”. Is this a sign of things to come with DD and his lack of drives to the rim?

    • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

      Time will tell but if your driving to the rim and not getting the calls what would you do?

      • AB7.38pt.on.CB4

        STFU

        • 2damkule

          this is a good example why it pays to not be a d-bag on here…G2G’s point is a valid one (DD does seem to be getting shortchanged in the calls dept.), but because it’s him that raised the point, it’s disregarded.

          • Pizzaman

            I don’t know that DD gets shortchanged on calls any more than any other Raptor, although the NBA refereeing stinks.
            I think one of the reasons he does not get the calls he wants is because he drives to the rim, often out of control, and most times he’s looking for a call he does not even try to finish the play. He looks like he is driving into bodies on purpose looking for a call, versus actually trying to score.

          • mountio

            Totally. G2G actually knows a lot about ball and has a bunch of good things to say .. its just the ridiculus conspiracy theories and all out bias towards, well, pretty much everything related to the current Raps (outside of Ed, JM and Bosa (and maybe Bayless)) .. that make the good stuff he has to say get lost in the wash ..

            • Gerald

              Dude, “AB stole Ed’s PF spot,” “BC should trade AB while his stock is high,” “Casey is BC’s puppet,” “AB doesn’t have a calf injury, he’s quitting on the Raptors….” etc etc etc

              Now look at those quotes and tell me if this gots2go guy still knows a lot about ball. You go through his history maybe 5% of it is actual fact, and that’s being generous. 

              • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

                Trying to quantify my basketball knowledge based on a selection of so called quotes that you attribute to me is about as asinine thing I have seen on this blog.

                I’m glad that I’m so heavy on your mind.
                 
                I must have really struck a nerve on you with my words & thoughts for you to try and discredit me- wow.lmfao

                Maybe you should try to do the same thing with BC since he actually runs the Toronto Raptors?

                One thing I do know is that BC has fucked up Raptors basketball- point blank. 

            • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

              I could care less if you agree with my posts in full, part or not- recognize.lol

          • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

            Being considered a douche bag by some reprobate minds up in here is all relative to dealing with a bunch of BC kool aid drinking pussies that discharge his BullChit as actual factual.

            Disregarded by whom?

            You?

            Or do you speak for everyone that views this forum?lmfao

        • what the

          the guy just said something having to do with a raptor player and you’re telling him to shut the f**k up what the? are you some kind of gestapo or something or one of the dummies who stop and look at the sparks coming from the welding torch even though it hurt your eyes do like i do whenever i see the pizzapizzaman post i just press arrow down it’s as simple as that ,now with POOKA it’s a different story

          • AB7.38pt.on.CB4

            Just referring to the question made of “not getting the calls…”

          • p00ka

            okay BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!! alias

            • what the

              i knew it i knew it was you all along POOKIE so tell me how is your undercover case going

      • raptorboy

        Drive harder and look for contact. He’s not the strongest kid in the league but he can go to the hole harder than he has been. He’s been playing soft. Reminds me of you.  haha

    • Theswirsky

      the difference?:

      Vince did it in order to get traded. 

      DD mentally soft

    • cesco

      He has the opposite problem to what Andrea had in his second year when he had to learn how to go to the basket more often. DD has the problem this year of staying outside to often to see how successful he is with the 3 points shots .

    • raptorboy

      He got to go to the rim different. Half assing it and falling to the floor is no good. He needs to initiate the contact and get to the line. Go hard or don’t go at all.

  • sangaman

    The poor raps have to beat the refs as well as the other team..That charging call  derozan early in the game for example…The statophile should check on calls for and against because I smell a biased rat..In fact the NBA game in general is a joke with big market teams and superstars getting favourable calls.. Thats why I prefer the NFL because players decide the games not refs..and whining wimp “superstars”  like Lebron would get eaten alive. 

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_SJT6LQ6HZQWMPJMT22LTN24UUY Antonino Ferraro

    DD is struggling. Normal if DD is not able to create a decent shot. Doens’t matter if it after a driving, or a dribble penetration, or a catch and shot. It’s clearly that without AB the defence put more than one eye of him and consequently he gets in trouble. It’s not a question of statistics or percentage from the field, but the fact that now he is not capable to create a decent shot when AB miss. We can discuss if he will be able to improve and how much, but now the team needs AB. No one can say if with AB we would have won one/two games in the last four (probably not) but with AB DD and the other guys have more space and time to put the ball into the basket.

    Of course the season is long, there are more than 40 games (before to go to the lottery) to change something and to see the progression from DD, ED, JB and the other guys. At the end of the season is necessary to draw the line and see who is above and who is below and take the decisions. No one has to be protect, and if was necessary to change completely the team do it. No excuses, no good sons, no bad sons.

    • Theswirsky

      I don’t think DD’s struggles are as related to Andrea being out as they are to the style of play exposing his lack of ball handling, weak shooting and general inability to beat his man.

      The four games prior to Sacramento Demar shot 1-6 for 3 pts, 4-13 for 8 pts, 3-11 for 9 pts, 4-16 for 11 pts.  He’s only gotten to the line 5 times or more 3 times this year.  His 3pt shooting, while better, is still not that good.  He was on fire in the Cleveland game, but aside from that one game he is 7-26 on the year (a hair over 25%).

      This team is no longer running or pushing the ball and DD is losing out on alot of the easy buckets he used to get.  Liston’s numbers may back this up, as since he can’t beat his man he is settling for jumpers instead.

      • Nilanka15

        And the odd time he does beat his man, it’s such a premeditated move, that there’s always a help defender parked under the hoop, waiting for the charge.  DeMar doesn’t have the athletic ability, nor the dribbling skills, nor the court vision to avoid the help defender, or pass to an open teammate.

        • AB7.38pt.on.CB4
          • Nilanka15

            Not sure if I’m comfortable giving up on both DeRozan and Davis.

            I’d rather do this trade:

            http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=6vxmk32

            • AB7.38pt.on.CB4

              It would be nice. He is obviously done there after being benched and included in several trades scenarios. He had the idea to move as  a pg for a while.very good handles and shooting range.Just need to land in a new team.His Defense is really underrated.

              • Pizzaman

                I would do both trades in a flash. mayo is so much better than DD with way more upside, and Gallo is a real ball player with skills and toughness, something DD will never be and we can only hope Davis becomes.

            • Talkbox

              What if Memphis wanted DD + Ed Davis?

              • Nilanka15

                I wouldn’t do it.

          • mountio

            No way. Galo and AB have a place in the league .. but it isnt on the same team. Thats a recipe for disaster if Ive ever seen one ..

            • Nilanka15

              Yeah, that was my worry too.  There’s a lot of overlap in terms of skills (Bargnani’s just a few inches taller). 

            • what the

              why don’t you like Galo?

              • mountio

                voy sums it up well below. Galo, on his own, is a decent player. But, hes a terrible compliment to AB. Bad defending, distance shooters who do rebound very well at both the 3 and the 4 is not a good combination.
                In addition, you are giving up too much in Ed and DD to get Galo (even if he was a good fit with the team)

          • voy

            no way on giving dd and ed for gallo.   not even taking into consideration the players we already have, would I make this deal.  And upon reflection on who we have on the team, I def wouldn’t pull the trigger on this.

            (1) Gallo and Bargs as your 3 and 4 would be horrible, in my estimation, on trying to contain the better sf’s in the league.  You can have one, or the other on your team, but I dont think you can have both.

            (2) who would be our starting 2?

            Unless someone makes us an offer we cant refuse, I wouldn’t mind giving DD till next year, when the team is hopefully a little better, to see how he plays.  And there is no way I give ED away anytime this year. The kid knows how to grab boards.  I’d love to have him here next year to bang against jv in preparation for the season. If JV looks like the real deal, I’d think about trading ED then (or if we land Anthony Davis or Drummond in the draft).

          • CJT

            No chance. 

          • raptorboy

            no.

        • Pizzaman

          Nilanka you are exactly right here IMO. I do not for one second believe Derozan is in a slump at all, but rather with a different type of offence and defense his lack of real basketball talent is showing through. He got most of his points last year in transition where he could make the easy dunk, or in garbage time where he would hog the ball and go to rim rim uncontested because the opponent had decided they were already happy with the win.
          I don’t want to appear to hate the kid as he is trying, but he has never been as good as most touted and hoped, and one of the issues is he needs to also understand he is not a star but a serviceable role player. He can then be a better fit if he plays within his skill level.

      • Pizzaman

        Exactly, although having a scorer or two on the floor definitely would help DeRozan get some easier chances. Meantime he has gotten many easy looks and he still cannot finish, and this is basically a lack of talent, not a lack of trying.

        • raptorboy

          Maybe not a lack of talent. Just an inability understanding how to use what he got. Casey helped Bargs understand how to use his talent. Someone needs to show DeRozan.

      • Statement

        Well said,

        DD can’t be a creator in a half-court scheme.  He doesn’t have the handles for it.

        I do remember him getting open medium range two’s last year under Triano off of pin downs.  Maybe that should be worked in a little more.

        • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

          Someone needs to get Casey to spell out what the fuck ‘FLOW’ offense really is because he defined it as ‘Playoff Offense’ which is some serious BullChit especially when I heard Dirk say that Dallas offense was slow because they weren’t getting into the FLOW Offense which he described as when the team gets stops on defense and is able to ‘FLOW’ out into transition offense taking what the defense gives them in said possession.

          Is Casey is charge of the offense or is that another assistant coach’s responsibility? 

          The Raptors went from the worst defensive team in the NBA 2 years running under Jay to currently being the 2nd worst offensive team in the NBA under Casey- wow.

          DD’s lack of consistent offensive production isn’t the real problem it’s the lack of cohesive offensive schemes to fit the Raptors personnel w/ or w/o AB in the line up (imo).

    • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

      Didn’t Casey say this whole season was one big training camp/practice in the so called build process?

  • p00ka

    Unbelievable that a high profile fan board allows such domination by such a pathetic troll

    • what the

      ahh POOKIE POOKIE

  • what the

    The young gunz needs to tell speedy gunzalis to speed up the game…Matt Devilin “Calderon with the rebound fast up the court” 8 seconds left on the shot clock and no other raptors player has touch the ball is this part of the plan to let the other team defence set up then try and break it down it was very sad to hear BERRY and crew at half time say that thay had no idea what Calderon was trying to do never saw any play call like that in all there time in the NBA so is Calderon improvising or is this Caseys free flow offence.

  • Puffer

    Tom another great article. Good point about Forbes. He has impressed in limited minutes (I mean impressed as much as anyone outside of Bargs, Jose, Barbosa and Amir, this year). He doesn’t seem as desperate to get his when he comes in, unlike the first few appearances. I think Casey must have reassured him that if he just does what is asked, he will continue to get minutes. 

    I wonder if Casey is following an evaluation plan with the players. The time they are getting seems to be structured in 3 or 4 game segments. Just my impression. that would allow him to evaluate, make suggestions, see if they are followed in the next game, make more suggestions etc.