The last time the Raptors played the Nets, it was a 97-85 loss and it was probably not a pleasant experience for you. The slow pace masked what was an awful defensive performance by Toronto: New Jersey scored 114.8 points per 100 possessions. Deron Williams got into the lane whenever he wanted and, once there, either found an open three-point shooter or got to the line. This snapped a six-game losing streak for the Nets.

Tonight, the Nets actually have some momentum – they’ve won three of their last four, four of their last six. It hasn’t been against the best competition, but it’s something. Bad news for Toronto: Williams has been on a tear in those wins and Jose Calderon isn’t suddenly going to be any better at containing him. Good news: Marshon Brooks is likely going to be out, just like last time, and I feel like he’d give the Raptors lots of trouble. Also, the Nets are worse at home.

Point Guard:

You don’t need me to explain to you why Williams has a matchup advantage against Calderon, so instead I’m going to elaborate on the “New Jersey is worse at home” thing. D-Will’s scoring numbers through seven games at the Prudential Center: 16.3 PPG, 35.9 FG%, 26.8 3PT%. In 12 games away from home 21.2 PPG, 41.6 FG%, 39.7 3PT%. Those damn sightlines…

As for the backups, it was encouraging to see Jerryd Bayless put up all those points in Denver. With Bargnani out, it shouldn’t be seen as a nice bonus when he fills it up. His scoring is essential. Jordan Farmar has quietly put up excellent offensive statistics this year off the bench, hitting long twos and threes at a rate way higher than we’re used to and, likely, higher than is sustainable.

Advantage: Nets

Shooting guard:

I could watch Anthony Morrow shoot jumpers all day. Sadly, that’s basically what the Raptors did on January 6, when he scored 24 points on 9-14 shooting, including 6-10 on threes. I know you have to send help when Williams beats his man, but you cannot leave this guy. You cannot. For DeMar DeRozan, the Jazz game was a bright spot but the Nuggets game was… uh… not. He’s still not looking as comfortable as last season; hope this changes soon. Can’t give this one to Toronto, even if the reliable rookie Marshon Brooks sits this out with an inflamed Achilles tendon as expected.

Fun fact: Brooks is just over six months older than DeRozan.

Advantage: Nets

Small Forward: 

The Nets have been starting DeShawn Stevenson at small forward lately, with Anthony Morrow sliding over to back him up at times and the recently called-up Larry Owens seeing a few minutes, too. I wouldn’t bet on Stevenson hitting five threes like he did last time, but I do expect him to have an impact by playing tough defense when matched up with DeRozan.

I’ve really been enjoying James Johnson over the past few games and his block numbers are helping my fantasy team.

Advantage: Raptors

Power Forward:

You never know what you’re getting with Linas Kleiza. Last four games: two points on 1-7 shooting, 25 on 8-16, five on 1-5, and 16 on 5-10. Kris Humphries, on the other hand, is a remarkably consistent double-double machine. The Raps have the advantage off the bench if we’re considering Amir Johnson the primary backup four rather than five — Shawne Williams hasn’t been hitting his threes this season and, as a stretch four, that’s the most important part of his job.

Ed Davis requires your patience.

Advantage: Nets

Center: 

Aaron Gray, Jamaal Magloire, Shelden Williams, Johan Petro. Oh, man.

I’m not sure how to analyze this. Raptors get the edge because Amir Johnson will play some center and Johnson is a good NBA basketball player. Is that enough?

Remember how Bryan Colangelo used to compare Bargnani to Mehmet Okur? Well, they’re both injured, so there’s that.

Advantage: Raptors

The line:

The Nets are favoured by five. The Raptors already lost to them by more than that with Bargnani in the lineup, so it’s tempting to pick New Jersey. That would make too much sense in an NBA season that makes little, so I’m going with Toronto. I don’t care about your tank train.

  • Thecaptain2000

    let’s remember however what the schedule was like for the raptors  last time they plaid NJ

  • Ppellico

    you can think it up and down, in and out all you want.
    You can compare away all you want…
    THIS team simply needs to hit open shots.
    That’s it.
    Simple.
    I cannot take anymore 1 for 16 starts.
    Watching balls clunk off rims is stupid.
    Watching one and done is over.
    Watching guys chuck up far away shots before their teammates have even begun to set up plays is madness.
    Everybody begins to stop playing when this horrid play begins!
    Why? Running around setting picks or up and down the court your plays when your teammates keep trying for their own seems silly, right?????

    Is this team affraid?
    Have they gotten into their own minds?
    I don’t know…but its not complex, this game.

    But you do need to put the ball into the baskey more times than them.
    And IF you continue to miss open shots…the analysis becomes circular and numbingly useless.

  • JHP

    Not sure what the answer is but you and I can shot 0/10.   Teams will not trade for any player that can not score.  But to my surprise he’s still second in scoring and we both know he’s found a long term home.

  • voy

    I’d love to see JJ post up Deshawn or Morrow.  If JJ’s game continues to evolve, I think, there is alot of interesting things you can do with a guy that big and that mobile.

    • Brian B

      I agree re Morrow, but Stevenson is a plus post defender – battled LeBron in the finals. Though JJ was a post-up scorer in college, he has yet to show pro quality moves. With Hump around to help from the weakside, might just result in blocked shots.

    • Sam Holako

      I Love JJ’s potential, just would like to see much more consistency from the guy.

  • Guest

    Kleiza is the Master troll!

    http://i.imgur.com/QA0e2.jpg

    • Adriiian

      LOL

    • Sam Holako

      HAHA!

  • voy

    maybe.  I’d still like to see Casey try and use JJ’s size in the post against smaller SF’s.  Even if we force Hump to help that may free up some space for AJ or ED.

    Enjoy the game.

    • Copywryter

      We saw some of that early in the season, but it lead to JJ picking up charges and/or him being the final stop on too many possessions. I suspect that’s why Casey moved away from it.

  • Lorenzo

    It feels like its been forever since the Raptors last played at home

  • Adriiian

    Let’s go Raptors, hopefully we can win this one.
    LOL @ the excuses for DWill and Morrow hating the arena. LOOOL

  • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

    No Bosa…….Bayless starting- the bench scoring output will surely suffer tonite.

    Calderon
    Bayless
    Derozan
    JJohnson
    AJohnson

    is the starting line up vs NJ tonite.

    I see a NJ W at 102-88 as DWill is on a roll with 4 str8 double doubles.

    Hopefully Bosa’s injury won’t be a lingering one.

    • mountio

      At least Casey willing to try some different line ups! I like the small look .. as expected, NJ forced to match and go small. Not saying we should do it all the time, but its a nice change of pace.
      Jay’s head must be spinning now. You can play JB and JC together? But they’re both PGs?
      Agree .. our bench is in trouble tonight…

    • nba_socrates

      Great prediction well done, congrats, very good analysis sir. Bravo!!

      • CJT

        Scary thing is that this is the closest he has ever been to being right.  I use him to bet proline.  I take whatever he says, reverse it and bet heavy.  I should really cut him in on the action for being so incredibly accurately wrong.