Play has been much improved from the 2 spot since mid-February:

DeMar DeRozan

After a slow start to the season (including shooting only 36.7% in January), DeRozan has been playing reasonably well as of late. His true shooting for the period is just a snick above the league SG average. This, of course, isn’t overly exciting for your starter. However, he is getting to the line 5.4 times a game on the season, third most of all “2s” – behind Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade. Since mid-February, he’s getting to the line 6.0 times a game and shooting a robust 81% from the stripe.

The big hole in his game remains his three point shooting. While he was off to a hot start, he has cooled significantly – shooting only 13% since mid February. The good news is he’s not taking many, but he MUST be able to consistently shoot over, say 33%, to remain a solid starter at the 2. The league average SG shoots 35.2% from deep.

Gary Forbes

Gary Forbes has also had a number of very good games once he started to receive consistent minutes (post the Barbosa trade). A true shooting percentage of 55.3% is nicely above the league average SG. (Note: strangely Hoopdata, 82games and Wins Produced – The NBA Geek all list Forbes at a Forward and are assuming Kleiza or Butler were SG in many lineups – I don’t get it). His offensive rebound rate (ORR) of 5.8 is third highest for SG in the league (behind Tony Allen and Dwyane Wade)

Full Season Comparison

While Gary Forbes may not quite have the same spark as Leandro Barbosa, his numbers are remarkedly similar – with the exception of rebounding, where he is much better.

Questions? There is a dedicated to “Statophile Q&A” forum thread here . If you prefer to send questions privately, you’re welcome to email me at tomliston [at] gmail [dot] com or find me on Twitter (@Liston).

  • FAQ

    JELD….. RAPS HAVE JELD…!!!!!

  • Ryan

    thats a whole lotta red after derozans name…

  • Raps4Life

    And a whole lot of green for Bayless, showing that stats don’t mean everything

    • Tom Liston

      How do you mean? Making more baskets as a percentage of those you attempts doesn’t mean anything?!  Assists and rebounds are meaningless?

      • Destro

        They’re not meaningless but theres variables not accounted for in those stats and are misleading….then again thats what advanced basketball stats are and have become…

        • Destro

          Even tho theres tons of holes in these adv stats the numbers themselves are marginally different…Only ppl that use these stats in b-ball are ppl that try to formulate agenda based off equations that are faulty….They dont account for defenses,if your behind or ahead or time of game….just like PER…smh but go head lol

          • Tremaine

            “Only ppl that use these stats in b-ball are ppl that try to formulate agenda based off equations that are faulty”

            Lol @ this dude acting like he knows somethin about advanced stats….smdh..

            • Destro

              ^ typical dummy that has no clue what im saying….PER is about as useless as ur opinion.

          • guest1


    • guest1

      Maybe it shows that people see what they want to see?  Seems like Bayless’ PER is better than Calderon. Look a little more at the advanced stats and you see that PGs playing against Jose have a freakin field day.


    DeMar’s game hasn’t changed since 2007.  Sad, but true. Also, the trend noticed earlier in the year appears to hold true, when he rebounds 5 or more they win – when he’s only jacking up shots, they are losing. I wouldn’t even be bothered by how he ignores wide open teammates, for the sake of ” shot development”, but when your most athletic player puts on those lazy Garfield eyes of his, and won’t soar for boards, he makes dolphins cry.

    • Tom Liston

      Raptors are 8-7 when DeRozan has 5 or more rebounds.  Raptors hold opponents to 39.9% FG% in wins and 46.1% in losses – suggesting that it may be a bigger factor (and more rebounds available).

      • FLUXLAND

        Does it change when it’s 6 and above? 

        • Tom Liston

          Raptors are 5-3 when DeRozan has 6 or more rebounds.

  • Ppellico

    still do not understand
    all this analysis in a season such as this.

    It almost strikes me as a

    Look…this is a BAD year
    from which to judge. And even harder IF you are a fan. like ourselves, and do
    not have any idea of what is going on behind closed practice doors.

    This team had it much
    worse than other teams. It had a ridiculous beginning of 70 percent away games.
    Its opposition often had the exact opposite. So they had no time for practicing
    with new teammates and a new coach.

    Other teams had all the
    home time and even had a solid team in place before the lockout.

    So give all of this
    over-thinking madness a break, already. Just enjoy the season and admit we
    don’t know what we are talking about.

    We can start again this

    • Ion66

      Everyone on the Internet knows what they are talking about. It’s everyone else who usually has no idea what the hell we are thinking when we type!

      I heard the opposite discussion with regards to the 76ers in terms of their season start being mainly @home with the late season collapses being part of a less favourable stretch of away games. This was a learning year for us, so yeah, a bit of a throw away as far as being an accurate gauge to our potential. Cntrl-Alt-Del this summer and start fresh going forward.

  • KJ-B

    oK, I admit that I’ve thought that Casey didn’t have a clue about ‘O’ early on–he has a slight clue now….but the discipline has been good for DeMar, he seems  to be more conscious of the entire half court space so much more than before and is transitioning well from one end of the court to the next…

  • cdub

    I think Forbes is a better fit for the team.  I liked Barbosa but I found aspects of his game selfish and frusterating.  I’m kinda glad they traded him.