They don’t want us to get Anthony Davis. Or so it seems.

As the Raptors play out their remaining 7 games while jockeying for ping pong balls and auditioning D-Leaguers, there are a dozen other teams doing the same, all with the hopes of improving their odds at selecting The Unibrow. Alternatively, teams can hope to just move positions in the draft, with the #2 or #3 pick being available via the lottery, and any 1-spot increase still holding value. This is obvious, so even as Davis is the prize most think of initially, teams (and fanbases) see obvious value in improving their draft slot these last two weeks.

We’ve all spent a bit of time hypothesizing about who the Raptors may take, or where they may land, but it’s all been kind of long-term conjecture and hoping against hope. Today, I bring you a few Tanking Tools. Nothing too scientific, of course, but as that glorious April 26th date inches closer (the last game of the season), it means June 28th (draft day) is inching closer as well. But what does it all mean, and what can we expect?

Where Will We Finish?
Blow the chart below up so you can see it larger. It’s not complicated, but briefly – it shows a team’s current record, their Hollinger Power Rating, their remaining schedule, and their projected finish based on ESPN’s Playoff Odds feature.

Based on the Playoff Odds feature, the Raptors would be expected to slide from their current spot of 4th to 6th. This likely accounts for the fact that the Raptors are a bit stronger than their record indicates, and they have a pair of games against very beatable teams. That said, the Odds don’t recognize that the team will, in all likelihood, play the remaining 7 games with little or no contribution from Jose Calderon, Jerryd Bayless, Andrea Bargnani, and Linas Kleiza. 4 of the team’s key players are currently injured to varying degrees, and it would behoove the franchise to sit them all down. This might not be possible for Jose, with no other point guards on contracts longer than 10-days, but I doubt we’ll see Bargs, Bayless, or Kleiza again (disclaimer: I didn’t see the game last night, so my Kleiza assumption is just that, an assumption).

It seems the Raps are a lock to lose to Boston, Atlanta (twice), and Miami. Milwaukee would be a sure loss if their still in the playoff hunt at that point, but a toss-up if they’ve been eliminated. Detroit and New Jersey are likewise toss-ups, games nobody will want to watch as the tanking will be blatant. The Odds have the Raps pegged to go 2-5, but a 1-6 finish (I’m giving them the season-ending win against the Nets to drive Tank Nation crazy) would leave them at 21-45, placing them in a 3-way tie with Cleveland and Sacramento for spots 4 through 6. If they finished tied, they SPLIT the number of ping pong balls and thus the odds for finishing in each spot. A coin flip determines the order if no team wins a lottery spot. So…to be optimistic but realistic, I’ll pencil the Raptors in for 5th (40%), with a 20% chance of 4th, 30% chance of 6th, and 10% chance of 7th.

Where Would They Pick?
The chart below is one I’ve used before and shows the odds of finishing in each draft slot given a final seed in the standings.

Based on the assumptions I used in the previous section, we get the following chart determining where the Raptors would pick.

Low and behold, the Raptors would be expected to pick right around 5th. I’m essentially giving them an 8% chance at Anthony Davis, a 27% total chance of picking in the top-3, but a 53% chance of picking out of the top-5 altogether. This may not seem great, but we can’t really claim to deserve better when a) we have Jonas coming and b) we haven’t been anywhere in the arena of awfulness that Washington, New Orleans and Charlotte have resided in all year.

So Who Would They Pick?
Anthony Davis, obs.

Okay, so there’s just an 8% chance of that happening. Damn. Everyone is going to have their own rankings from #2 on down, but here are a couple of looks at who is suggesting who is going where, including my own ranking of the prospects strictly in terms of how I’d like them on the Raptors.

I’m assuming since everyone is vocal and everyone has their own rankings that these will be ripped apart, so allow me these quick notes:

Robinson and MKG – 2A and 2B in my books.
Lamb – Might be a bit high and slightly redundant with DD, but he’s a great complement in a pick-and-roll offense and Casey may be able to get more motor from him.
PerryI’d roll the dice as early as 5 and let him play the wing, where he seems a better fit mentally. He could be a nasty defender if motivated and coached.
Up to this point I went “best talent” but outside of the top-6 or so, it’s certainly acceptable to draft for a need. Both guys make a team better, and I gave Lillard the slight nudge based on scoring upside.
Just don’t see them being able to develop him and Jonas at the same time, but luckily they won’t slip this far.

Later in the draft season I’ll hypothesize about potential 2nd round picks or trade scnearios to get other 1st round picks (e.g. using our cap space to take on a contract, with a pick as enticement).

In the comments, leave your own Mocks or your rankings of who you’d like to see the Raps take, 1-10. If there are enough responses I may take the time to merge them all into a “Raptors Republic Reader Rankings (R4)” and publish in a later draft article.

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  • Bendit

    Regarding Perry…inspite of invoking words like “mentally”, “could be”, “if motivated” and “coached” you would pick him at 5? Are you implying he did not receive good enough coaching at Baylor. Picking a player who is clearly a project/question mark as high is really “rolling the dice”. Imo we do not need a major gamble at this point in the evolution of this team. Motivation, mentally unfocused, no motor are accurate deficiencies in many assessments I have read. What if he continues being the same? Yikes! 

    • BKing

      2 words: DeMarcus Cousins 17 & 11 enough said.

      • Bendit

        Assume you are making a positive comparison. Not a good one. If I remember correctly DC was not a project/gamble and much sought after with the only deficiency being character issues. Calipari would not have tolerated lack of motivation and not being focused. These are especially red flags once the NBA contract is signed. Pass

        • Nilanka15

          I’m very intrigued by PJ3.  I think the character flaws are a little overblown.  He did disappear a few times this season, but he was primarily used in the low block.  Like Blake said, he’s probably better suited playing the SF at the pro level (they said similar things about Rudy Gay while at UConn).  If we fall out of the top 5, I would seriously consider Jones.

          • voy

            I dunno what the prob was with PJ3 but most of the times it looked like he was the third or fourth option on Baylor.  I may have overestimated his athleticism but at the right pick I think he would make an interesting pf prospect playing beside jv.

            I think his height may hinder him playing the sf position.

          • sleepz

            Perry Jones is a tough one. Not enough 3 skills yet in his game but his dimensions (height and length) would make him troublesome on a nightly basis if he develops them.

            • Nilanka15

              That’s the strange thing about this year’s draft.  Every single player in the top 10 (with the exception of maybe Beal and Barnes) is a fairly large project.

              • mountio

                I assume you meant to include Davis. No project there .. will be an impact player day 1 for sure ..

                • Nilanka15

                  I actually think Davis is as much of a project as anyone.  Yes, he’ll have an immediate impact (based on his length and defensive instincts), but he’s far from a polished player.  He’s got a lot to learn on the offensive end.

                • mountio

                  Couldnt disagree more (with the conclusion at least). Yes, he has a lot to learn at the offensive end .. but that doesnt make him a project at all in my mind.
                  He will come in and play big minutes and have a considerable defensive impact to whatever team drafts him. He will also be more than serviceable at the offensive end (definitely not polished, but serviceable). I think hes a legit difference maker year one .. maybe not quite all star caliber, but difference maker.
                  Funny for someone who seems to hack on scoring as not the be all and end all (Yay points! was one of your catch phrases I thought), you seem to be weighing scoring a lot in your assessment of AD as a “project” …

                • Nilanka15

                  I guess we define “projects” differently.  Davis will have an impact for sure, but he’s not the complete player that (for example) LeBron and Duncan were when they were drafted.  For a number 1 pick, there are still a lot of questions surrounding his game, hence why I refer to him as a project.

                  As for my thoughts on scoring, it’s a very big component of one’s game.  But IMO, it means very little if a player can’t defend anyone (as is the case with Bargnani).

                  Conversely, I feel the same way about defensive players who can’t do anything with the ball in their hands. 

                • mountio

                  Fair enough. Given there are probably only half a dozen players in the league with a polished offensive and defensive game that you refer to  … I would tend to not group all the others as “projects’ .. but I get where you are coming from if the point is simply to say that he has work to do on the offensive end to become a complete all-star type player

                • Bill

                  Someone who is a project is perceived to have potential that has yet to be fulfilled.  Many players without polished offensive/defensive games don’t fall into this category simply because they’ve hit their ceiling.

              • sleepz

                And even for those 2 players what is their ceiling like?

                This is where GM’s earn their pay and I am extremely confident there will be potential all-stars in this draft taken outside of the top 3

          • Bendit

            Just to be clear I was attributing character issues to Cousins.

            • sleepz

              He’s quickly become my favorite player in the league.

              • Destro

                Yep shows you who the problem was….*coughs* Westphal *coughs*

                • 2damkule

                  yup.  until next year, when the problem will be smart.  and then…

                • Bendit

                  I think Smart has tied his can to Cousins’s horse so he has a longer term depending of course  on the implosion of the rest of the team.

  • Lorenzo

    I doubt Drummond will drop that low, just can’t see it happening.

    These 10 (in my opinion) are going to be for the Raptors best interest, not the best player available. Unless of course it’s Anthony Davis.

    1. Davis
    2. MKG
    3. Drummond (i know… but so much potential!)
    4. Beal
    5. Barnes
    6. Lamb
    7. Robinson
    8. Jones
    9. Marshall
    10. Lillard

    • guest

      You don’t have Robinson in the top five?


    Bradley Beal or Harrison Barnes. Nuff said

  • RapthoseLeafs

    If Raptors end up 5th last in the standings, the odds are they’ll pick either 1-3 (about a 25 – 30 % chance), or 6th (if an lower % lottery team grabs a top 3 spot), with an outside chance on 7th. 8th is statistically possible, but it would mean some lucky bastards got real lucky. And teams like Charlotte didn’t.

    If Raptors were to get the 2nd pick, I’d be tempted to trade down a few pegs – unless BC is set on getting MKG. If we end up with a 6th (or later) pick, I’d pick Need over BPA, because as the Drafting Chart shows, there is no consensus after Anthony Davis.

    My order of picks (which excludes Davis) would be:
    1) MKG
    2) Beal
    3) Barnes
    4) Best SF or PG

    Robinson seems like a decent player, but we have too many Bigs as it stands. With Jonas coming (and excluding the thought of getting 1st pick), why would we pick another Big?

    We have needs at the 1, 2, & 3 …. so going a combo BPA/Need sounds about right for me.


  • Samuel

    I think Drummond and P. Jones both have the biggest bust potentials and are not the safest of the picks, but they also have very high ceilings and if they reach it, we’re talking about superstars. 

    Worst case for P.Jones is Anthony Randolph, worst case for Drummond is Kwame Brown. Both are risky picks within the top 10, but I personally think they’re legit, moreso with Drummond.

  • CantDL

    This is my own ranking list.

    1 Davis2 MKG
    3 Robinson
    4 Barnes
    5 Beal
    6 Drummond
    7 PJ3
    8 Sullinger
    9 Lillard
    10 Marshall
    11 Rivers
    12 T Zeller
    13 Moultrie
    14 Jones
    15 Henson

  • DC

    You guys really believe that David Stern is gonna let the raptors select The unibrow? Lol fat chance. The draft is all set up by him to get the college stars where he wants them to go and what would be most beneficial to the league. I remember back in the day at least the fans got to see them pick the ping pong balls out now. Nope they go back into the backroom and pick them no cameras or nothing. Why is it such a secret? David Stern knows what he’s doing nope Washington is gonna get the #1 pick two kentucky studs both drafted #1 overall playing in the nba. Wouldn’t even surprise me to see Calipari coaching them the following year. 

    • Jay

      Nah, Stern is going to give the 1st pick to the Bobcats and his pal Michael Jordan to help ease the pain of reinstating the NBA season and cancelling the lockout (which MJ was vehemently against because they still lost money). He’ll give the 2nd pick to the Wizards where they can get the other Kentucky guy MKG to pair up with J.Wall, good for attendance numbers. He’ll then give the 3rd pick to the league-owned Hornets, to, you know, make it less obvious than giving them 1st. 4th pick is a toss-up, but he might give it to the Raps after fucking us over last year (dropping from 3rd to 5th). He’ll then help out the Cavs to get Dan Gilbert off his back, and then some combination of Portland, Detroit, Sacramento in no particular order. That’s the genius of David “fucking” Stern.

      • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

        MJ stood strong during the lockout and with the NBAs worst record it won’t seem like the fix is in.

        It’ll be interesting to find out the Lottery results and see what manifests itself.

        I do believe one thing- Raptors won’t move up, stay where they are at but will fall a spot or 2….

      • Bill

        If CHA/WAS/NO end up with the top three picks the Raptors cannot get the 4th pick unless they are 4th worst.  The first three picks are decided by lottery, the rest are based on your record.

    • Raps4Ever

      “You really believe that David Stern” fixes the draft? “Lol fat” on the brain.

      • Destro

        Giving the Donaghy chronicles and the crooked officiating that has gone on in certain playoff series IE Blazers/Lakers ’00 WCF Its not hard to imagine it at all…..You think Stern wants a potential franchise player and cash cow for the league toiling on a team that’ll never be on tv….

        • Nilanka15

          Lol, it’s the players who drive TV ratings, not the city they play in.  How many Clippers games were nationally televised prior to Griffin?

          Not sure if you remember him, but there was some dude named Vince Carter who used to play here, and would be on US national TV on a weekly basis.

          • Destro

            Dogg you have no clue what your talking about AGAIN…
            So your saying the cities/markets dont drive the TV ratings ??? smh how many times you gonna do this to urself on here….So the city/market doesnt drive TV ratings and doesnt dictate whos on TV ?

            VC was a top 3 player..AD is not VC…We would need to have a top 3 player in the league again to ever got on US natl tv…and thats directly related to this citys location…..

            Damn breh  

            • Nilanka15

              Is San Antonio a big market?  Orlando?  Cleveland?  Portland?  New Jersey?  Charlotte?  Sacramento?  Milwaukee?  Golden State?  Why would Stern hand them number 1 picks?

              When the Heat were struggling to win 40 games (prior to Bosh and LeBron arriving), how many times were they on national TV?

              Enough with the “aliens ate my baby” conspiracy theories already.

              • Destro

                Ok BUT my comprehension is bad lol
                I said players matter but market matters more….NBA only needs 6 markets to be great to succeed,they dont need all these other small TV markets to be competitive….

          • Destro

            So the fact Blake and CP play in LA has nothing to do with this equation huh ? I wont deny you need to be a decent team but the NBA wants the big markets on tv eveyr week,the big cities tv ratings drive the league ad revenues….

            • Nilanka15

              Your reading comprehension fails you yet again.  Of course bigger markets earn more ratings. 

              What I’m saying is that the draft isn’t fixed to favour these large markets. 

              If we miss out on the Anthony Davis sweepstakes, it’s because we didn’t win the lottery.  Not because Sterns wants Davis wearing a different uniform.

              • Destro

                It didnt fail my whole point was market matters,you said it didnt lol…

                • Nilanka15

                  Perhaps I misspoke in my first response to you.  Yes, the market matters.  But the players matter more.

                  The Knicks have the biggest market in the league, but how good were their ratings during the Isiah Thomas era (when their biggest “star” was David Lee)?

                  Or how about the Bulls, when their marquee player was Jamaal Crawford?

                  Or Boston, when Antoine Walker & company was capping out at 20 wins a season?

                  A big market is all well and good.  But it’s not going to translate into high TV ratings without star players, and as a result, winning teams.

                • Destro

                  Like i said TV markets matter as much as the players do…NBA only needs 5 big markets to do well and that carries the entire league…

                • CJT

                  No, you said it was all that matters, and then changed it to matters more.  Not as much.  Don’t change again now that Nilanka has made his point.  You point about the crooked ref is kind of irrelevant unless you mean to say that Stern had him cheat to create better ratings.  I think he was a gambling addict thought wasn’t he?  Anyway no conspiracies here.  Don’t you think it would be in the interested of the NBA to have great TV ratings league wide?  Doesn’t that mean more money, more jerseys, more ticket sales etc. etc. etc.

                • Destro

                  YES and they get the best ratings in the bigger markets…

        • Raps4Ever

          The Donaghy story has nothing to do with conspiracy theories of Stern controlled officiating, which has nothing to do with lottery conspiracy theories. I know it’s hard to convince a brilliant mind reader, but if you actually look into the entire lottery process and how it’s conducted, you’d know that it’s impossible to fix. You’re a mouthy bugger, but proof positive that a man who doesn’t know what he doesn’t know is a fool.

          • Destro

            Arguing to argue muthafucka at it again…Donaghy establishes a credibility problem with the league and its authority you fuckn idiot..if you didnt jump in like a bish on her PMS when you saw the screename and just read the message you would have got it….

            • 2damkule

              the arcane & (overly) complicated lottery procedure was instituted in great part to combat these conspiracy theories.  i suggest you do a bit of research into who actually conducts/controls the lottery process. 

              • Raps4Ever

                For some reason, which may have something to do with examples provided by his daily babbling, I don’t think he has the capacity to understand the safeguards inherent in the process. Once a conspiracy theory is implanted in a simple mind…….. you get Dumbstro.

                • Destro

                  shit just flies over ya head…lol

          • Destro

            “impossible to fix” again the term stupid dumb showing in your posts… know when ppl say Stern fixin shit its usualyl jest….smh @ this dude in his tin foil cap…

  • Bigmanshaq

    Anyone out there feels like Harrison Barnes NBA comparison is Martell Webster?
    Beside the 1 inch different, every scouting report for Barnes is copy and pasted from Webster’s profile

    • Destro

      I read Calbert Cheaney in another NBA blog and i couldnt stop laughing…Those kinda comparisons should scare fans from the Craps drafting him….

    • sleepz

      Martell Webster came straight out of HS and we never really knew how he was going to pan out. Injurries and trades have derailed his game.

      I’m not the biggest Barnes fan out there but going to UNC for 2 years is never a bad thing (unless your name is Ed Davis and you get drafted by the Raptors,lol) and his game might translate better to the pros

  • 511

    I’ve seen a bit of most of these players that’ll be drafted, but not nearly enough to have any real sense of who should be picked where. I only hope (and trust, frankly) that our scouts have been ‘pounding the rock’ in their own way … and I’d wager that they have. There’s no way I could imagine that, with how this season has gone, they haven’t been seriously focused on being ready to select the best players available, come draft day. Part of ‘how this season has gone’ refers to the looking ahead that has been a big part of every game that they play; that they occasionally win (by necessity, for morale purposes, it has looked like, at times); that they’ve been close to winning but somehow, haven’t, even when it has appeared that they might and could; and that they’ve been blown out of. 

    Most of us who check in here know that going to the playoffs this year would’ve been another step in the direction of mediocrity. So, does anyone seriously believe that the management of the team hasn’t been just as well aware of that? If you do, I’d only say, c’mon. These guys (who run the team, from the coaching staff, on up) aren’t commenters arguing from home or the office on an internet blog about the Raptors. They’re experienced professionals who, by and large, have forgotten more about the game than most here will ever know. And it’s seemed clear to me, all year long, that they’ve been aiming to be pretty much where they are right now … and that is, not in the playoffs, but down among those teams who will have a shot at the best of the draft picks that will be available this year. That truth is not a pretty one, btw, and it’s not even an easy one to discuss, because you’ll never find anybody who is ‘in the know’ who’d even come close to confirming it. (So asking them about it is just juvenile … for those who, you know, can.)

    The finish of the season won’t be any prettier than what the rest of the year has been. As most know. And those who want to argue about how good or not this player is or that player will be … well, that’s why the blog is here, I suppose. (And if it fills your boots, knock yourself out.) But the sniffs of good play that we’ve seen at times — and at times, we’ve seen some damn good play for the talent level we’re generally at — have only been sniffs for a reason. We’ll only begin to see what’s what for real, next year. After the draft and after whatever new player or players we can coax to join us (and there’s more to sell here than some would have you think), and after a proper summer of workouts and then training camp, with a bit of luck (an average amount), next year’s team might hardly resemble what we’ve seen, in terms of play, esp wins and losses, this year. So don’t let the naysayers wear you down. (I note that the repetition of daily slagging eventually gets some to agree with things they previously didn’t; just saying.) But this thing is going according to plan more than it might seem. And good things will very likely be ahead. As I see it, anyway. 

  • sleepz

    I’m sure I will be the only one to say it but I hope Raps end up with 5,6 or 7.

    Yes drafting in the top 3 gives you more options but I think Colangelo will stand pat if we draft in these positions and if we end up with MKG (good kid but overrated and lacking NBA skills imo), Drummond (that FT % set’s off alarm bells) or Beal (would be open minded to him but I think he’s a 2 in a 1’s body) I will be dissapointed in having to suffer through this season for a player who I can’t envision as a cornerstone for this team in the future.

    • c_bcm

      Yeah I agree with you here. To be honest, I like the idea of drafting Marshall (which BC would never do with picks 1–> 4). Then package current players to fill the holes in free agency and trades.

  • Destro

    Good point…It takes the pressure off him having to make the right decision on this pick right now and 2 years from now…That opinions comes from years of watching him make bad choices under pressure….I still cant go with it cuz ima fan of the team and i always want the higher pick but i dont have alot of confidence in his decision making when it comes to 1A B or C lets just let him pick between 2 and 3

  • Statement

    Just say no to Harrison Barnes.

    • sleepz

      You are often a blogger that has ample data to support your claims.

      Why say no to Barnes?

      I’m not the biggest Barnes fan myself but I feel he is better than some players projected to go ahead of him.

      • Destro

        Better than Gilchrist ? Beal ? Drummond ?
        I wouldnt take barnes and his southern dixie haircut over any of them…

        • Nilanka15

          I might take Barnes over Drummond.  That dude scares the shit outta me.

        • sleepz

          Yes sirrrr. I’m not the biggest MKG fan and although I feel Beal is a good player he is undersized for the 2. No questions about Barnes physical size to play the 3. Big issue with him is he didn’t take over last year and doesn’t have the handle you would want from that position but either does the other 2 (handles).

          I will be interesting though as they are all good young prospects and the pre-draft workouts will tell us whats going on.

          Drummond concerns me with the ft shooting. Under 30% from the line?

      • 2damkule

        heart.  drive.  desire.

        skill/ability is only part of the equation…these guys all have skill, to one degree or another.  only those possessed with the drive to improve those skills will make worthwhile nba players.  players like barnes, who seem more focused on establishing their brand over improving their play, are deathknells for franchises…always tantalizing them/fans with potential, but never fully tapping into it, and worse…not really caring.  they have long careers, that usually end up being described in a ‘what could have been’ kind of way.

        y’know, pretty much like how people describe vince’s career…’coulda been one of the best ever…too bad he didn’t give a shit.’

        • Nilanka15

          That’s where MKG comes in.  The hope is that his heart, drive and desire is strong enough to, one day, overcome the deficiencies in his game.

        • sleepz

          I understand your points but I can’t see how Barnes has been focused on establishing his brand?

          Heart, drive and desire are necessities to become a great player no doubt, but if you don’t have the God-given pre-requisite skills what can you do? I’m sure Demar wants to be able to cross up dudes like Kobe and he probably works quite hard at it but chances (not a definite but likely) are it’s not going to happen.

          Gerald Wallace balls like it’s his last day on earth but his skills are limited. Popeye Jones was a player that had no regard for his body and got after it under the boards on a nightly basis but his skill-set was limited. We’re talking about a top 3 pick for a team that we all care about who’s talent level is only above one team in the NBA imo (Charlotte). I hope they draft a player that has the intangibles you’ve mentioned plus talent and skill.

          There are players I like more than Barnes, but there are also players who I think the pundits are propsing based on potential or the fact that they fit in well with a stacked team in college and in the NBA when your skills are more readily exposed I think some of these players will not achieve what is now expected of them.

          This is the draft and every year there are more dissapointments than gems. Barnes could indeed be a dissapointment but MKG doesn’t necessarily become a gem because he has more heart and desire imho.

          • 2damkule

            my comments re. his ‘brand’ stem from comments he’s made in various interviews over the last year or so.
            i can’t disagree with what you’re saying, and i think barnes will have a decent enough career, and perhaps he’ll turn out to be different than i think he will…i certainly hope so if he winds up with the raps.the point i was trying to stress is that a player like barnes, who is tremendously skilled, but who hasn’t shown much (if any) improvement at a top-notch school with a top-notch coach for two seasons, offers a great deal of risk…as long as he’s semi-competent, he’ll always be tantalizing as a player to build around, but unless he turns things around and puts in the work to improve, the team he ends up on could very well spend many seasons hoping he reaches his potential.  there’s a reason he’s slipped so much in the eyes of scouts/pundits…he was likely more highly regarded coming out of HS than he is right now (and if he could have been drafted two years ago, he would likely have gone higher than he will in june).

          • DC

            Good post.  +1

      • Statement

        Demar Derozan WS/40 at USC = 6.8

        Harrison Barnes WS/40 this year = 6.8

        Anthony Davis WS/40 = 19.9

        MKG WS/40 = 10.2

        Bradley Beal WS/40 = 9.7

        Andre Drummond WS/40 = 10.5 but shoots 30%(WTF!!) from the free-throw line.

        Barnes numbers are almost equal Derozan’s (at USC) across the board.  And I don’t need to tell you that Derozan is not a good player. Thanks but no thanks.

        • Statement

          As a comparison, Ed Davis shot around 60% at the FT line in College.

        • sleepz

          Thats what I was waiting for! lol

          Barnes has no excuse for this especially as a sophmore.

          “That being said”…….. (If you watch Curb your Enthusiasm I hope you grasped that one), I have a question about win-shares. Does it always focus on the indivudal players performance alone or if a team wins often, like Kentucky, does it factor in the team success and what they have contributed to those wins?

          Sorry for the ignorance but I’ve always wondered about that.

          • Statement

            It’s just a formula based on box-score statistics distributing team wins to each player. 

            Because it’s based on box-score stats, I would think that individual defensive contributions (outside of blks, steals) would be missed.  However, it should do a generally good job of catching offensive contributions (outside of setting a good pick, for example).  

            A study that Tom pointed out indicated that it’s inferior to Wins Produced and Advanced Statistical Plus-Minus.

            I like it ’cause it’s readily available on, it’s one easily-understandable number, and it’s better than PER, which overvalues chuckers.

            • sleepz


        • 2damkule

          what jumps out to me that isn’t contained in those numbers is that barnes was, ostensibly, ‘the man’ at unc, while MKG was but a piece of a successful & loaded UK team, yet MKG – despite a lesser overall role on the offensive end – was still a substantially bigger contributor to his team’s success than was barnes…at least according to WS.

  • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!


    Last year Raptors finished 3rd worst in NBA but got the 5th pick in Stern’s Lottery draw. 

    Stern controls the Lottery draw so it doesn’t matter where the Raptors end up expect them to fall a spot or two in the Lottery draw as a team or 2 jumps over them (storylines)- time will tell.

    Tanking is for suckas…..wash your ass!!

  • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

    Btw- what was the lockout about?

    Teams are still competitively unbalanced, teams are still tanking for ping pong balls, star players are still demanding trades……….

    • Nilanka15

      Agree 100% here.  The lockout was a giant waste of time for everyone involved.

    • Raps4Ever

      Regardless of what was or wasn’t accomplished by the lockout (and that’s far too complicated a discussion for your simple mind), I guess it’s not surprising that anyone who believes Stern can fix the lottery, is also stupid enough to believe that any of the problems that were addressed could possibly be solved in a few months, even under ideal conditions. It would be a waste of time to try and explain it to you, but some changes have been made that over the next few years will significantly level the playing field. Not perfectly so, and some prima donnas will always demand trades, but the field will soon be a lot more level. Sorry, but there was never any hope to satisfy your 3 month window.

      • FAQ

        Last several seasons, all the Ratpor tribal honking fans were placing all their future hopes on some highly drafted kid.  If Lebron was drafted by the Ratpors, he would have likely tanked in the NBA and followed Vince out of TO.

        • Raps4Ever

          Well, it seems time you stop being an idiot that follows the same path, with slightly different attitude hahahaha, as the tribal honkers and find a team you can find some positives in. There are several bandwagon groups that will help you find some peace and escape from your misery. Seriously, what’s the point of suffering from the misery of being surrounded by “tribal honkers”. Are yoa an idiot bthat enjoys masochism?

  • mountio

    Clearly the raps didnt get the memo tonight. Even the BS “winning culture” types have to admit this was a horrible win that did us no good, right?

    • Lorenzo


  • drizz

    fuck tanking.
    fuck manufactured raptor culture.
    fuck TPE (free money for mlse)
    fuck bryan colangelo.
    fuck mauritzio ratface.
    fuck tanenbaum fucking cheap asshole cocksucking fuckwad.

    • drizz

       also fuck rogers.
      fuck mlse to death. motherfucking moneygrubbing bitch asses.

    • Rob

      Great! Now tell us how you REALLY feel.

    • Raps4Ever

      feeling a little sexually frustrated? we got a kindred spirit guy herefor ya, goes by Destro, that would love to snuggle up to ya

      • drizz

         Man I dont care about who destro is.
        I’m just sick of this team.  Sick of the management.  Sick of fans who are happy and put up with this shit.  Fuck free shitty pizza.  Why are businessmen making draft picks.  what a fucking mess this team is.

        • FAQ

          I gather you are no longer a Ratpor fan…. at least not in their present fucked up state….

  • FAQ

    I pity the poor, rich bastard who is drafted by the Ratpors.. it’s like being thrown into a big bucket of shit and told to swim.  Maybe BC should do the smart thing and try to draft down while picking up some decent experienced prospects…. not like Amir.

    • Raps4Ever

      Maybe you should show some smarts and find a more peaceful pastime than swimming in what you call shit. I’m mean really, who is the idiot here when you insist on swimming in what you call shit, yet keep doing it when you have choices.