The results are in. So how do we, the RR Readership, value each draft prospect? How do we rank the potential lottery picks? How does this stack up with “expert” or consensus rankings? Well, let’s have a look.
The Results – Full Table
Below you’ll see the full table of results for any player that received a top-14 nomination. Players were awarded 14 points for a #1 position, 13 for a #2, and so on, down to a single point for the #14 position. While this has some flaws as a methodology (should the #13 pick really get twice as many points as the #14?) it does do a good job with the prospects who come up on most ballots, and I think the “points” rankings follow a logical order, and match up well with what would be a ‘consensus’ positioning from the ballots.
|Perry Jones III||1||1||4||10||5||2||5||1||2||1||220||32||6|
|Tony Wroten Jr.||1||1||1||3||2||23||8||30|
The Results – Lottery Mock Comparison
The chart below shows how the RR Reader Rankings for the top-14 players compared to those of some other top draft sites. Just for a reference of Readers vs. Writers, I included my own top-14 as well as Arsenalist’s. Again,the RR Reader top-14 here is based on the top-14 point getters from the table above.
|Pick||RR Readers||BLAKE MURPHY||ARSENALIST||CHAD FORD 100||DRAFTEXPRESS||NBADRAFT.net|
|1||Anthony Davis||Anthony Davis||Michael Kidd-Gilchrist||Anthony Davis||Anthony Davis||Anthony Davis|
|2||Michael Kidd-Gilchrist||Michael Kidd-Gilchrist||Anthony Davis||Michael Kidd-Gilchrist||Andre Drummond||Thomas Robinson|
|3||Bradley Beal||Thomas Robinson||Thomas Robinson||Bradley Beal||Michael Kidd-Gilchrist||Andre Drummond|
|4||Harrison Barnes||Bradley Beal||Bradley Beal||Thomas Robinson||Thomas Robinson||Michael Kidd-Gilchrist|
|5||Thomas Robinson||Perry Jones III||Harrison Barnes||Andre Drummond||Bradley Beal||Harrison Barnes|
|6||Andre Drummond||Harrison Barnes||Andre Drummond||Harrison Barnes||Jared Sullinger||Bradley Beal|
|7||Perry Jones III||Jeremy Lamb||Damian Lillard||Perry Jones III||Harrison Barnes||Jeremy Lamb|
|8||Kendall Marshall||Damian Lillard||Kendall Marshall||Terrence Jones||John Henson||Kendall Marshall|
|9||Jeremy Lamb||Kendall Marshall||Jeremy Lamb||Jared Sullinger||Perry Jones III||Arnett Moultrie|
|10||Damian Lillard||Andre Drummond||Terrence Jones||Tyler Zeller||Tyler Zeller||Damian Lillard|
|11||Terrence Jones||Terrence Jones||Terrence Ross||Jeremy Lamb||Terrence Jones||Perry Jones III|
|12||Jared Sullinger||Quincy Miller||Austin Rivers||Damian Lillard||Jeremy Lamb||Tyler Zeller|
|13||Austin Rivers||Royce White||Quincy Miller||John Henson||Damian Lillard||Austin Rivers|
|14||Tyler Zeller||Austin Rivers||Perry Jones III||Austin Rivers||Kendall Marshall||Jared Sullinger|
The Results – R4′s Top-14
#1 – Anthony Davis
Blake’s Ranking: #1
Most Common Position: #1 (34 of 38 ballots)
Notes: He’s been considered the league’s consensus #1 for most of the year, and it was surprising that 4 different people thought he should go lower (with one even ranking him as low as #4). Still, it looks like most people are okay with The Unibrow being the face of this franchise, if the Raptors were to be so lucky in the lottery.
#2 – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Blake’s Ranking: #2
Most Common Position: #2 (27 of 38 ballots)
Notes: Three people who didn’t like Davis gave MKG the nod at #1, while one person didn’t like him until #4. It seems he’s the consensus consollation prize after Davis, and it makes sense since this team could use the high-motor, team-first wing play he brings to the table.
#3 – Bradley Beal
Blake’s Ranking: #4
Most Common Position: #3 (16 of 38 ballots)
Notes: After Davis and MKG, every prospect had a pretty wide range of rankings. Beal was slotted anywhere from #1 (once) to #10 (once), although most saw him as the #3 (16) or #4 (11) pick. Beal’s offensive upside is obvious, but the question among the readership seems to be whether he’d be an upgrade over DeRozan or not.
#4 – Harrison Barnes
Blake’s Ranking: #6
Most Common Position: #5 (11 of 37 ballots)
Notes: After the top-3, every single player was left off of at least one ballot. Basically, people have said beyond Beal, we’re not convinced of anyone as a lottery pick, unanimously. I think that’s a bit extreme, because Barnes’ floor is that of a bench scorer, with a significantly greater upside. I ranked him a little on the lower end of his range (he was slotted in the 3-6 range on 31 of 38 submissions).
#5 – Thomas Robinson
Blake’s Ranking: #3
Most Common Position: #4 (11 of 36 ballots)
Notes: Readers seem split on Robinson, and my guess would be that some don’t like the idea of adding another non-elite PF to the mix with Ed Davis and Amir Johnson already in-house. I understand the concern, but I really liked what I saw from him throughout the college season and think he could be a difference maker. Robinson’s range spanned from #2 (4 times) to unranked, though he was in the 2-5 range on 27 of 38 ballots.
#6 – Andre Drummond
Blake’s Ranking: #10
Most Common Position: #6 (11 of 35 ballots)
Notes: I’m not necessarily sour on Drummond in general, I just don’t love the idea of trying to develop multiple bigs at the same time. If he slipped this far, which doesn’t seem likely, the Raptors would have an interesting opportunity to develop a beastly defensive front-court. Some love Drummond (he was #2 thrice, #3 thrice, and #4 twice), but he was also unranked three times and ranked out of the top-10 another two times.
#7 – Perry Jones III
Blake’s Ranking: #5
Most Common Position: #7 (10 of 32 ballots)
Notes: Like scouts, our readership seems to love him or hate him. I think he was mis-used as a big man in college and could be a dominant wing player with the right tutelage, and at #5 I don’t feel he’s riskier than anyone else available. He didn’t go higher than #4, and was unranked half a dozen times, but 6-10 seems to be his ranger for the Raps (26 of 38 ballots).
#8 – Kendall Marshall
Blake’s Ranking: #9
Most Common Position: #9 (8 of 34 ballots)
Notes: As we hit the point-guard part of the lottery, we start to see whether people choose based on need or talent. Marshall had a wider ranger than Damian Lillard, ranking both higher and lower, with a much wider spread of picks. It seems while a handful of people believe in Marshall’s leadership and ability to make others better (he ranked #9 or better on 23 of 38 ballots), still nearly half the respondents had him #10 or later, or even outside of the lottery altogether. Marshall and Lillard, it appears, are a coin-flip apart for our collective ranks.
#9 – Jeremy Lamb
Blake’s Ranking: #7
Most Common Position: #8 (6 of 38 ballots)
Notes: Jeremy Lamb is officially your “nobody knows where to slot him” award winner – he was placed everywhere from 5th to 12th at least three times, and was also 13th, 14th, or unranked a couple of times. When the “consensus” position is chosen just 15% of the time, you know there’s no sure spot for him. It’s going to be a nervous draft night for Lamb, I guess. I wonder if people used him as a “filler pick” when they didn’t want to rank someone at a certain level, using him to move around other picks.
#10 – Damian Lillard
Blake’s Ranking: #8
Most Common Position: #8 (10 of 33 ballots)
Notes: Lillard’s most common rank was higher than Marshall’s, again illustrating that his range was more narrow and he and Marshall are a bit of a coin-flip. Lillard went unranked a few times but primarily went 7th or 8th (17 of 38 ballots).
#11 – Terrence Jones
Blake’s Ranking: #11
Most Common Position: #13 (6 of 25 ballots)
Notes: After the top-10, things started to get really messy, with prospects only appearing on 60% of ballots or so. This makes sense, as the later in the draft you get the more you’d expect variance in opinions. Jones went as high as #5 (once) but I don’t think that’s realistically his draft range. #11 is technically the Raptors “worst case” lottery scenario, but it seems at least half of us would be OK with Jones in this spot if it comes to that.
#12 – Jared Sullinger
Blake’s Ranking: Unranked
Most Common Position: #9 (6 of 25 ballots)
Notes: It appears we mirror the media and scouts on Sully, as some love him (he ranked #5 once, and 9th or higher 11 times), while 13 people didn’t even see him as a lottery pick. Sullinger will never be an above-the-rim NBA player, but I think his floor is a 3rd big with his offensive polish. With that said, given the Raptors current make-up it just makes far more sense to swing for upside or draft for need.
#13 – Austin Rivers
Blake’s Ranking: #14
Most Common Position: #11, #12 and #14 (7 each of 30 ballots)
Notes: Rivers seems to be locked into the late-lottery range, slotting from 11th to 14th 23 times. Rivers would seem to have a high floor with his NBA legacy and Duke pedigree, but a second year in school really would have helped him. He has “late bloomer” written all over him as an NBA prospect because it could take him a year or two to find and accept his role (and it’s not super-duper-star, whether he thinks so or not).
#14 – Tyler Zeller, Quincy Miller
Blake’s Ranking: Unranked, #12
Most Common Position: #11 (4 of 12 ballots), #14 (4 of 12 ballots)
Notes: Zeller and Q-Millz tied in points, neither ranked above #10 (three times each), and they were both left off of 26 ballots altogether. This late, the draft and rankings are a crap-shoot, but RR Nation seems to like Zeller’s floor as a bench big with energy, or Miller’s upside after a year or two of further developing his game.
Others Receiving Votes
Blake’s Ranking: Royce White #13
Notes: I don’t know Royce White personally, but I can’t see someone with an anxiety disorder being comfortable in a new country. With that said, in strictly basketball terms he’d be a steal outside of the lottery. John Henson appeared on a hanful of ballots, and I feel like he’d have been on more if people thought he could play the wing effectively. Terrence Ross fits the bill of “shooter” in our “needs” column. Tony Wroten Jr and Marquis Teague are questionable PGs in the lottery but potential steals later in the draft. Moe Harkless, Arnett Moultrie, Andrew Nicholson, Kris Joseph, Meyers Leonard, William Buford, and Jae Crowder all received at least one top-10 vote but not enough late-lottery love to crack the top-14. Dion Waiters, Evan Fournier, Doron Lamb, Jeff Taylor, Darius Miller, Darius Johnson-Odom, and Fab Melo also received votes, bringing the list of potential lottery picks to an astounding 34.
This was a lot of fun….we obviously won’t be able to do something similar for our 2nd round pick (it would be all over the place, and far too contingent on what happens in the first round), but hopefully this fosters some more discussion to carry us through these awful, hurtful, awesome, exciting, why-can’t-we-be-there NBA playoffs. Please try to keep the discussion clean and friendly…or at the very least try to keep race/background out of it. Attack the idea, not the person. Or something like that.