Five Points on Fields

  1. You could listen to Bill Simmons
    or you could rub a few facts together. I know its hard. But if you bothered to look, Landry Fields played the second most minutes of any Knick last year. No, he wasn’t the 11th man as much as you wanted to believe it (thinking is hard). And the offer is for $19 million. And its back end loaded. And Steve Nash turned 38 this past February. But making crap up to illicit a passionate response is the name of the game and Bill knows clicks are clicks (yes, we advertised it as well and most everyone simply accepted it as the gospel).
  2. You could also look at the the structure of the deal. Some of the very same Raptors’ fans endorsed Daryl Morey’s move to offer offensively challenged Omer Asik $25 million over THREE years as brilliant. Why? It was a “poison pill” type structure – in this case severely back end loaded, which essentially guarantees Chicago cannot match (note: this is not a direct comment on the merits of the Asik deal – I realize he’s an excellent defender). Landry Fields’ reported deal starts (see TSN’s Tim Chisholm’s article) at $5 million this year and ends at $8.9 million (see more on this later). Houston needed a big defender while Toronto needed a wing scorer. Why isn’t this deal structure just as brilliant?

    Maybe its even more so. Thankfully, reporters like Chisholm caught it right away: “Without a sign-and-trade, the Knicks are stuck at offering Nash only $3 million per year, or roughly one-quarter of what the Raptors are prepared to pay to get a deal done […] if the race is really between Toronto and New York, Colangelo’s pre-emptive strike against New York’s sign-and-trade options illustrates the seriousness with which he covets Nash as a future Raptor. Of course, Fields is more than just a pawn in the Nash chase; he’s a player that the Raptors are going to integrate into their attack next season.”

  3. Landry Fields can spend minutes at SF. Some have speculated DeRozan would have to move full time to SF. For New York last season, he spent more than half his time at the 3 spot. He’s 6’7″ and can match up fine in many situations there.
  4. Some have also noted Fields’ shot only 25.6% from beyond the arc last year versus a hot 39.3% in his rookie year. This was obviously cause for concern. However, if you think about the “new look” Knicks offense (predicated on little ball movement, except for Lin) in his second year, it is understandable. Last year, NYK had the 4th highest turnover rate and was ranked 22nd in % of field goals assisted on. As an example, Fields’ 2pt FG% “improved from 50.2% to 55.7% playing with Jeremy Lin last season” (as per Kevin Pelton). Its likely he’s not a 40% three point shooter, nor a 25% shooter. Coupled with a pass first PG that can also shoot (hint: Nash or Calderon), he’s likely somewhere in between.
  5. His adjusted +/- is quite good. Yes, this can be “noisy”, but (click image to see it completely)

    Fields appears to make positive contributions to both offense and defense when on the floor. Fields has the best 1 year and 2 year adjusted +/- of all Knicks who played over 1,000 min last season. And Landry just turned 24 and most players continue to improve significantly at this age.

Net, net: its a very smart gamble.

You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take. – Wayne Gretzky

This is a shot worth taking. This is not 30 year old, beat up Jermaine O’Neal. This is not a four year deal for a defensively challenged Jason Kapono.

Here is an example of the decision tree (well, its not exactly a “tree”, but you get it) I would make in this situation:

I’m sure I could’ve displayed this better, but I hope you get the idea. The most important piece of the analysis is the removal of New York from the Nash equation (although *maybe* they could try a sign and trade with Lin + parts, but I don’t see it) and thus the increased odds of Nash joining Toronto. It also introduces option 2b, which not only lands Nash in Toronto (again making it near impossible for NYK to be a factor), but also has them accepted a large deal in the face of mega deals for Carmelo and Amar’e. Thus, 2a becomes a likely scenario and is not without risk. Toronto could increase its odds to land Nash, but still has a chance of only landing Fields – I peg this scenario at 20%. In this worst case scenario, we’d be paying a player that is much more productive than most believe, especially when part of a pass first PG and better ball movement. At $5M or so the first two years, then an expiring deal, this is a bold but calculated move. If you are concerned by the combined 3rd year salary for scenario 2a, then consider the dramatic increase in revenue MLSE will get by this move. Would the Raptors average attendance go from 16,800 last season to something like 19,500 like it was in 2008? Using TMR’s Fan Cost Index of approximately $75 a ticket, that’s $25 million in additional ticket revenue alone. Add increased money for TV deals (viewership would be up significantly with Nash), a few playoff games (~$2 million per game in ticket revenue alone), merchandise, Real Sports etc and you could probably double it. So, by year 3, MLSE will have significantly more resources handle these salaries and deal with any potential cap tax issues (i.e. will be able to easily handle deals which put them over the cap – given the large amounts Nash and Fields will earn in year 3).

There are very few “no risk” deals. Teams always have to balance risk and reward. I believe the Raptors have been savvy with this deal. It’s always a gamble, but this is a good one.

Questions? There is a dedicated to “Statophile Q&A” forum thread here . If you prefer to send questions privately, you’re welcome to email me at tomliston [at] gmail [dot] com or find me on Twitter (@Liston).

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  • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!
    • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!
    • Has to be a S&T and PHX just signed Eric Gordon to max (making it harder to take on large salaries).  Could happen, but difficult to pull off.

      • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

        EGordon is getting the heck out of NO and that mess that Stern

        They could always try and get a 3rd team involved but I see Dallas as the current frontrunner with NY 2nd, TDot 3rd then LAL.

        A Nash/Bryant backcourt is good on offense but lacking on D.

    • See Arsenalist’s comment about NOH matching – opens it back up.

      • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

        I just saw that. But EGordon doesn’t want to be in NO- S&T?

        RT Chris_Broussard: Eric Gordon told me: “I strongly feel (the Suns) are the right franchise for me. Phoenix is just where my heart is.”

        • Destro

          Dont quote Chris broussard man lol
          Dude is the biggest liar in sports see that shit he pulled with D-Will smh…

          • Rob

            You gotta love Chris Broussard and his “sources.” lol

            • Destro

              chrisbroussardssources was trending…

  • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

    Nash is going to Dallas in my mind…

    • Nilanka15

      Nash has spurned Cuban in the past.  And someone as business savvy as Nash might find it hard to leave millions on the table in order to sign with Dallas, a team that made it obvious that Nash was viewed as a backup plan.  Even “nice” players have egos.

      It’s cloudy at best.

      • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

        His best friend in the NBA is Dirk, JTerry is bolting for Boston, JKidd is going to follow DWill to NJ, Dallas just seems like the perfect fit for Nash right now.

        • Rob

          Sure feels like it, Dallas need a consolation for losing out on D-Will, I suspect Cuban to go hard after him.

          • enlightenment

             Dallas reportedly doesnt want to offer Nash more than a one year deal. Which makes sense seeing how old they already are. I think only the raptors are in the position to go all in for Nash.

  • Nilanka15

    Forget stats, BC stinks and deserves to die!  The sky is falling!  Save yourselves!

    • Destro

      He just overpaid for Landry and hes not gonna get Nash…exec of the year !

      • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

        BC uses cap space over & over as a primary talking point the last 2 years and now he’s potentially going to blow it just like Kapono/Turk all over again….lmfao

        If he misses out on Nash he’s gonig to overpay someone else to come here- hopefully not a PF or SG…smdh

      • Nilanka15

        If I’m not mistaken, either party can back out of a Qualifying Offer before July 11th. So if Nash signs elsewhere, Colangelo can rescind Fields QO, and no harm done.

        • 2damkule

          i think you’re right, but ‘no harm done’ would be a slight misnomer, as it’s generally viewed as ‘bad business’ to do something like that, at least amongst players.  and we all know how keen BC is on being seen as a stand-up guy who does the little extras for players.  while it’s an option if it all goes south, it’s unlikely to actually happen, mainly because it makes too much sense.

          • Nilanka15

            I can’t say this with any certainty, but it’s possible Colangelo laid out all the cards in front of Fields before he signed and said, “this is dependent on Nash signing”.

            From a moral perspective, it is a crooked thing to do.  But in reality, is it any worse than Carter dogging it and forcing a trade, or the Dwight Howard fiasco, or Michael Jordan backing out of the Calderon trade, or the lockout?  I personally don’t think so.  They’re all crooked moves, lol.

  • Giselle Ferguson1315

    I believe the same thing as BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go i dont know why. I just feel the way he was soooo inclined to wait for Deron to make a decision first and hear out Dallas he must be really feeling Dallas. 

    • You always want multiple bidders – price goes up.  Dallas is a great option for him as well. 

      Dallas could also pick up an amnestied Calderon. Given their cap situation, it may be a good option.

    • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2GoGots2Go

       I feel what your saying but you shouldn’t believe it for the same reason as BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go because he is just a pessimistic asshole troll who would bitch if the Raptors only won the NBA championship in 7 games instead of 4 lol

  • Matthew Nelson

    This has been an awfully long pause…Something doesn’t feel right.

    • If I’m making a $30M+ decision to end my career, I’d take more than a day to consider my options.

      • Destro

        Hes not considering his options hes waiting for the Knicks to come up with Plan B to PHX in s&t IE Trade Shumpert…..

        Knicks are clearly in the drivers seat right now….

        • enlightenment

           Why cant the raptors offer a better S&T deal, beyond the injured Shumpert?? (Ed, Calderon, Bayless, Kleiza, J Johnson are all up for grabs)

          • Nilanka15

            The decision is up to Nash though. It doesn’t matter if we have a more attractive S&T package if Nash wants to play in New York. Phoenix will be happy to get anything in return compared to the alternative (i.e. losing Nash for nothing).

      • Matthew Nelson

        That’s the difference between you, me and Nash.  You and I would take 0.5 seconds to make that 30 mil dollar decision 🙂

    • Destro

      Its pretty obvious whats going on…BC’s offer has been on the table for 3 days and nothing ? Why ?
      Cuz Knicks his preferred destination and hes waiting on them to do a S&T and work around the landry fields offer sheet…..No way Raps are the front runners (hell yea im glad) If the Raps were his No 1 option this deal woulda been done already….cuz nobody can offer him as much…He wants to go to NY,thats what the pause is…

      • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

        Or Dallas……

        • Destro

          I think he prefers NY..lives there,marketing opportunities…

          • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

            Time will tell…

      • Gfergz

        I agree completely! There is NO way he wants to come to Toronto if he is waiting sooooo long to decide. He obviously wants either knicks or Dallas to figure out a way to get him. But maybe just maybe if they take to long to work out something he will lose his patience and just pick Toronto. I don’t know. I wish someone had a little more inside info on what he’s thinking. 

      • Nilanka15

        When I make life decisions, I don’t jump at the first option. I do my research and weigh pros and cons of each scenario. This process takes time.

        “Hey Destro, we’ll sell you this 1996 Toyota Tercel for $47,000”.

        “I’ll take it!”

        This pause only seems like a pause to us fans, who are desperately waiting for a Nash decision (whether you want him here or not). In reality, it’s been a whopping 3 days, lol.

        • 2damkule

          plus, the DWill domino had to fall first…no way nash was going to make a decision before seeing how that played out, as he knew that once deron agreed to a deal, the teams that missed out on him would be more interested – and create a bidding war for – his services.  so, it’s really been less than a day that anyone’s been waiting on a decision from nash.

    • URaGuAY

      Even LeBron, Bosh, and Wade didn’t make their decision until like July 10. 

  • John

     hey on the bright side by the time landry field’s contract is over,
    steve nash’s contract will also be over. jose will probably be
    amnestied. james johnson will probably be traded. we will have shit
    lottery picks so in the year 2015 we will be horrible bu that’s when
    Andrew wiggins will likely declare. gotta stay optimistic 😉

    • Rob

      I believe Amir’s and AB’s contracts run through the 2014-2015 season as well, so their contracts will be over as well.

  • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

    Chris_Broussard Chris BroussardEric Gordon and the Phoenix Suns agree to a Maximum Offer sheet worth $58 million over 4 years, sources said.

    • Arsenalist

       Even better source says that Hornets will match it.

      • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

        EGordon doesn’t want to be there though…..

        RT @Chris_Broussard: Eric Gordon told me: “I strongly feel (the Suns) are the right franchise for me. Phoenix is just where my heart is.”

        • 2damkule

          that could simply be EJ being PC – what’s he going to say after agreeing to PHX’s offer, ‘wow, that’s a lot of cash…i’d rather be elsewhere, but shit…look at all that money!’

  • Rob

    Nicely written, facts, stats. Logic is a beautiful thing in the face of ignorance.

    I agree with the increased viewership projections, this goes for all of Canada. I spent a few years on the left coast due to occupational obligations and the sports highlights always showed the Suns highlights first over the Raps, and in some cases, more post-game coverage, there are a lot more Nash fans in that part of the country than Raps fans, put him on “Canada’s team” and they have something there.

  • Jerry

    BC should just bite the bullet and hire PHX’s vaunted training staff, for whatever it takes.  It’d be a better investment than Fields. 

  • Lambda

    Good post but you could’ve used some more game theory here.

  • 56 million 4 nash

    you conveniently left out the fact that he shot something like 56% from the FT line last season… but that’s the offence’s fault right?

    you also ignore the possibility that maybe the first half of his rookie season was the anomaly and not the past 1 and a half seasons?

    Oh and I thought BC was looking to add a veteran that could SHOOT or atleast create his own shot at the 3?  Landry can do neither of that.. the only real positive thing he brings to the table is his rebounding and once in awhile putback dunk.

    Also, I read on some forum that the deal is ONLY backloaded if the Knicks match but if they don’t, it’s averaged out over 3 years for the Raptors.  (if anyone can double check that, but the person called it the gilbert arenas rule)

    • Destro

      It absolutely sucks being a raptor fan right now…look around the league and you teams really trying to win,trying to make big moves…Minny going after Batum,POR maxing Hibbert,Suns going after Gordon,Nets signing Williams and trading for JJ and then were at the bottom of the barrel overpaying for Landry fckn Fields…with no plan B it appears in sight…….I hate our GM to no end…

      • Vinox

        + to that Destro. My exact thoughts, get BC out fo here.

      • Sukhpinder

        and only 1 team will win the NBA championship this year, not any of the teams you mentioned though

      • 2damkule

        i can’t help but feel that if BC had made any of the moves you mention above that you’re obviously in favour of, you’d have an issue with each.

        • Destro

          No you dont,you just want to complain because i have legitimate gripes with this GMs stupidity and have for 4 years….

        • Destro

          You know cuz his track record is just sparkling here,so no need to question or take issue with his moves right ? Kapono,Turkeydo,Marion,O’Neal cuz they all worked out so well…

          • 2damkule

            look, dude…i don’t know how long you’ve been frequenting this site, but if it’s been for any appreciable length of time, you’d know i’m a pretty big anti-BC guy.

          • RaptorFan

            i actually liked Marion….and he turned out to be a championship piece…..i just dont get why we’d give up on Marion in order to sign Turkey glue….one of the dumbest decisions BC made!

          • Telling it like it is

            Hey Destro, we all know you would complain about whatever move BC made (for any player) just because you seem to have a personal hatred for the guy. 
            Thay is fine… but if you try to say otherwise please first show us a post of yours EVER that was positive.

            Also, I don’t understand all of the love thrown in Batum’s bandwagon.  I mean honestly, if he and Derozan had there situations switched wouldn’t the entire league be after DD then?  To me Batum is way over hyped for what he has done, which is jack @#$%.

      • Ummm….. two time MVP Steve Nash?  You kinda forgot about him.

        • Destro

          You forget his MVPs were 6 and 7 years ago ?

      • onemanweave

        It sucked being a Cincinnati Royals fan when Russell, the Jones boys and Hondo were sucking up NBA titles like a runaway Hoover.  If the stupid GM could have traded Wayne Embry for Wilt, we’d have been in business. Oh, and if Jerry Lucas had of lived up to his pre-draft hype ….
           Being a Raptor fan has always sucked, although Vince provided a diversion for a few years.  If you have to follow a winner, we all understand. Pick Miami or OKC. You should be very happy with them, although we’ll miss you when you’re gone.
            BC isn’t a genius or an idiot. Makes good moves and bad.  Let’s see how these play out.
           Fact is, Raps actually played some basketball last year. Everyone in the league wasn’t taking the express lane to the basket.  If they can improve again this year, they may actually suck not much at all.
           Best of luck in your new basketball home.

    • 2damkule

      for cap hit purposes, the deal is averaged over the 3 years regardless of whether the knicks match (i think).  honestly, the new CBA is even more arcane than the old, and i just don’t have the energy to check coon’s site…

      • You’re correct. For Tor, it will be 19/3=6.3M/yr in cap, but NYK if matched would be hit with actual figures 5-5.1-8.9 year by year.

  • wamco

    What of his drastically different shot mechanics last year (front rim at the ACC is up for a workout) and his poor on ball defense? His strengths aren’t accentuated in Toronto and it’s even worse if Nash goes elsewhere. Just a huge gamble on an extronneous two who quite frankly has little to no chance of producing 18M of value and potentially cripples the cap going forward. What’s not to love?

  • Thetruth

    Although you do make intelligent points across the board, it does require mentioning that Landry Fields was absolutely TORCHED defensively last season. Seriously, consider the following points courtesy of Dan Devine on Ball Don’t Lie:

    “Fields ranked 341st among NBA players in overall points allowed per play defended, according to Synergy Sports Technology’s game charting”

    “he [Fields] ranked 185th in the NBA or worse in defending pick-and-roll ball-handlers, on post-ups, on spot-ups and in isolation doesn’t help matters.”

    You can see more of this column here:–nba.html

    The point is that Landry Fields was way overpaid.

    • Guest

      Did you get to the end conclusion of the post’s writer?  Let me sum it up for you: Yes, Fields might not be worth it if you look at the deal in isolation, but “[given] the stakes of the game, a $20 million offer to a middling two-guard seems almost cheap.”  So no, not “way overpaid.”

      • Thetruth

        Btw, out of curiosity, seeing that now we haven’t landed Nash…do you still think that Fields is not way overpaid?

        Three times market value is very overpaid and it was an unnecessary and foolish gamble by Colangelo (after all Knicks were prepared to offer Shumpert in sign and trade).

        However, kudos to BC for landing Lowry. Love the move and it certainly makes up for the overpaid fields.

  • AB7.38pt.on.CB4

    WoW ! , I m saying Wow !
    I must say ” BC has Got Big Balls” . I m reading Knicks comments and it’s all an explosion against Toronto. All the worsts words you can’t imagine, LOL. If Nash is not landing in Canada so he can go West, it’s a chess game and BC is doing well, imo.No contract is unmovable (Hedo anyone ?) and a Fields is not killing our plans (Nash + SF).-If LF is staying for good, watch out DD, your contract won’t be granted.

  • grLno21

    If we land Nash and Fields it would be only the beginging of trading activity IMO

  • Goddamnretardsinhurr

    lots of fkn babies and morons in here.


    i pray knicks dont match… i want fields more then i want nash.

    yall are dummin.

    • Destro

      worst post of the day

  • Brian B

    Love how you twist stats to illustrate  a theory (or preconceived conclusion). the fact is that until Shumpert went down, fields WAS the Knicks 11th man by the time the playoffs rolled around. He clocked the minutes early in the season under D’Antoni, and then when Melo and Lin were injured.

    As I said on another thread, he Is a decent player, but he is strictly a role player with a specific limited skill set. howthat fits the Raps is unclear. It is clear that his contract risks clogging future cap space…

    • Bendit

      If you remember the Knicks were loathe to give up LF in the Melo deal because of his stellar rookie year. Little did they know the effect Melo would have (he was a rook after all and possibly intimidated by the great one). He coincidentally played great when Melo was injured and Lin was doing his magic. As far as cap space goes 2 years is a long time in which to make adjustments, trades etc to alleviate that issue.

      • Balls of Steel

        Melo. The quintessential cancer. I love how the Knick got him. George Karl is laughing somewhere.

  • Balls of Steel

    Back to the FACTS, thanks for the numbers. I always thought that Fields was a good player. The Knicks are a ZOO right now (why would Nash want that). I cannot figure out for the life of me how fans are freaking out over the salary and how it’s going to cripple the franchise down the line. First of all, it’s not our money. Second, Bell and Rogers will milk this Nash situation for profit and hopefully, to give BC or whomever is going to be running the franchise, more money to re-load in 5 years time for more ammo. 

    Here’s some perspective, the Nets just took on Joe Johnson and his 90 million. The American media outlets don’t seem to freak out about this. Joe Johnson – the man evaporates every playoff game. They also made a lovely offer for Wallace at 40 million.

    Back to the topic at hand. The Raps are in an enviable position to make offers right now, unlike other teams worried about luxury taxes, etc. To date, there’s offers for Nash, Fields, Ilyasova and the team has spoken to the agents of Batum and Dragic. We need to wait for the dust to settle before making judgement. I personally would rather have a franchise that spends (not foolishly) rather than a franchise that stands pat and waits for opportunities to go by. Yes, Nash is old. Yes, he lies down rather than sitting on the bench. I got that. However, there’s also the intangibles such as leadership and experience. If there’s anyone in this forum that holds a full-time job that believes that experience is never a benchmark for how much you get paid – you’re kidding yourself. 

    He’s old, we get that, but what he brings to the table are so valuable that winning franchises such as Miami, Dallas, Lakers and the Knicks are after him. No one went after Olajuwon and O’Neal. That one was on the franchise. This is a different story.

    PS> When you have American sports journalists sending pot-shots about Raptor moves, we know better than to not fall for that right? They’re after your clicks, not opinions.

    • Nilanka15

      Voice of reason.  Where have you been???

  • ASAM

    Tom Liston has essentially lost all credibility for seriously attempting to justify a terrible move.  Your right Fields isnt the 11th man, he is more like the 9th (Anthony, Stoudemire, Lin, Chandler, Shumpert, Davis, Novak, Smith) Simmons point is right on, he’s their 9th best guy, who the Raptors totally overpaid for their 3rd SG (Worth 3m max) And the whole block NY tactic? Didn’t work! Knicks will still get him via S&T…but Nice try though, some solace in the Gretzky quote….I guess….what a waste

    • Appreciate the kind words!  I though Phoenix would be crazy to take all that junk back, but they appear to be willing.

      • ASAM

         Hey man, you know what I have to give you credit you didn’t just make a bold statement, you backed up with significant support and detail.  I just don’t agree with it and think this site is too often become BC apologist, letting him the pass.  But didn’t mean to come at you like that, Best of luck

  • Kujo

    You get bring out all the statistics you want, but it doesn’t hind the fact that Fields is a borderline scrub.  Ask Knicks fans how he disappeared for long stretches of games.  
    We all the know the history of our FA signings becoming worse once they sign with us.  Who’s to say Fields will be any different?  

    Now that it appears Nash is headed to NYC, I pray to God that BC rescinds this offer.

    • Kujo

      Grammar rage.  I meant to say “You can bring out…”