How does Lowry rank with other free agent point guards?

So we pooched our Fields/Nash analysis. It did end up in a situation where New York could, in theory, still obtain Nash, but it required Phoenix to take on a lot of parts (and NY having to give up Shumpert). Almost media outlets (as well as myself), didn’t fully consider (although our team did) the Lakers TPE – largely as the Lakers would have already over $70 million in salaries committed for next year to five players, two being World Peace and Blake. It completely makes sense for Nash given his “criteria”, but the Lakers will have to be shrewd to round out their roster.

More importantly, it meant the Raptors rapidly moved towards “Plan B”. And, in some respects, its a much better one.

The following charts compare six key free agent point guards. The first section is based on “per 36 minutes” numbers while the second section is “advanced” metrics (click on image for full view).


Source: basketball-reference.com

My original post was going to be why I believe Lowry would be a *much* better addition then Dragic. Lowry matches Dragic in most metrics and is a much better rebounder and gets to the line much more. Lowry is a steal compared to Dragic’s $8.5 million average salary over 4 years. Houston was wise to pass on Dragic in favour of Lin’s $7.2 million average salary over 4 years.

In terms on adjusted +/-, Lowry also screens very well:

Source: basketballvalue.com

Goran Dragic’s adjusted +/- is more mixed and it appears he is as good of a defender.

And what about his numbers versus a 25 year old Nash?

Source: basketball-reference.com

Kyle Lowry may be the steal of the free agent class offseason.

Questions? There is a dedicated to “Statophile Q&A” forum thread here . If you prefer to send questions privately, you’re welcome to email me at tomliston [at] gmail [dot] com or find me on Twitter (@Liston).

Addendum (7/6/2012 8am): Here’s a link comparing Lowry and Jerryd Bayless. Many similar numbers.

  • Guest

    cannot see nash at 25 vs lowry picture

    • http://twitter.com/Liston Tom Liston

      Try this: http://raptorsrepublic.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/lowrynashadv.jpg

    • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

      KLowry will be a major upgrade on the defensive end from Jose and he can and does hit the 3pt shot and doesn’t shy away from the big moment……..shot..

      He will give the Raptors some swag on the court something that Jose didn’t bring to the table….

      Too soon to call him the steal of the offseason unless BC is paying you to promote that……

      • URaGuAY

        Shut up you piece of shit!
        We’re tired of reading your pessimistic crap criticizing every move this team makes. 

        • Jerome27

          We are tired of it, but nice try. A few rare somewhat positive posts don’t excuse him from being an asshole who leaves Raptor management and player hate spam all over a Raptors FAN forum, most of which are overly harsh and malign as well as illogical based on that he assumes the fact that he knows more than professional GM’s (specifically, of course, BC who.. you know.. has only been named the NBA executive of the year twice and has drafted numerous all-stars, very productive players and a sure-fire HOF’er) and he clearly doesn’t know more because he is not a GM as he just sits on his pessimistic ass and writes bullshit on RR for hours every day.

          He is also tremendously biased and prejudice in his views on the Raptors.. as seen in how his name included Casey and Stefanski as having 2 GO before they even had a chance to do anything. He is a fuckin miserable douchebag who posts A TON (and I mean a fuckin massive shit load) of raptor hate bullshit and writes as though he is all knowing of how to create the best team in the nba when in reality he knows shit. Therefore it is near impossible to read a discussion without seeing his hate speech and it pisses me, and other people who try to enjoy this forum, the fuck off….”smh”…”smdh”…… I’d be much more inclined to read this board more often if he wasn’t writing on it and I know that many many other members here agree. Sport, and discussing sport, are meant to be fun and he rigorously attempts to detract from that experience on this board. It’s pathetic and actually quite sad.

          • AB7.38pt.on.CB4

            ….” He is a fuckin miserable douchebag who posts A TON (and I mean a fuckin massive shit load) of raptor hate bullshit and writes as though he is all knowing of how to create the best team in the nba when in reality he knows shit”…….
            LOL    –      Wrap of the Day !

            • Destro

              You post more bullshit on this site than anyone…

          • Lorenzo

            I didn’t even bother to read the comments in the past few articles, I knew exactly what was going to be there.

          • Destro

            Who gives a fuck tho ? Why do you bums put so mcuh effort into another posters opinion ? how much is it costing you ? is your day ruined by a posters opinions on a public message board ?

            • TOraps

              Says the guy who calls everyone fags for believing in something different than him. STFU!!

              • Destro

                FAG !

        • Destro

          Very insightful analysis…

      • Donfiasko

        Are you being positive about the Raptors?…………..waiting for a negative, insulting reply.

      • http://twitter.com/Liston Tom Liston

        Hence “may be”…. a lot of trades and signings to come.

  • AB7.38pt.on.CB4

    First of All I personally love your articles. Well presented, detailed,clear. 

    Financially Lowry is a great asset for Toronto because :

    – it didn’t cost much in return (not for tank nation)

    – has only 2 years contract at an excellent price for his qualities

    Plenty of opportunities to work with by BC in 2 years time no matter how Lowry will produce.

    At the present I agree, may be the steal at the PG position (via trade)

  • TheTyrant

    Good post.

    I agree that this is a good trade for the Raps. Hopefully ‘personel’ issues are / will be under control… atleast for a year until a slew of contracts are off the books.

    Jose could provide valueable mentorship if he sticks around. JB might be playing more of his natural 2spot if hes still around, which again could be a good thing.

  • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

    Steve Nash, who spends much of his summer in New York City’s West Village, won’t be making it his winter home.

    Nash ditched the Knicks Wednesday as their sign-and-trade talks were extinguished when the two-time MVP told the Suns he wanted to be a Laker. …

    Indications are the Knicks never were a major option for Nash.

    His agent, Bill Duffy, told The Post that though Nash felt he could have helped the Knicks compete for a title, the Knicks were hurt by their location.

    Nash’s No. 1 priority was playing in a city close to where his three kids live — Phoenix.

     

    “That was 90 percent of it,” Duffy said of the location. “And I say that respectfully to the Lakers.”

    • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

      Nash was never coming to the TDot either….90% of it…

    • AB7.38pt.on.CB4

      If a priority was playing in a city close to where his three kids live, why not tell everyone (media/teams/agent) before FA July 1st ? 

      • Nilanka15

        Leverage.  He wanted to up his value.

    • URaGuAY

      What’s the point of bringing up Nash into this conversation you jobless son of a bitch. Yeah, BC didn’t end up getting Nash, let alone this team isn’t his top choice. Move on, dude. I think you wanted Nash here and you’re hurt that he chose the Lakers.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/TRPH647AXY5T5XHXI2AFSG3XHA OvertheWall

    Lowry is beast.  Now, I just hope that Bargnani can be gone as soon as possible.  I can’t even stand looking at him.

    • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

      Yes, the Bargnani era in the TDot needs to end ASAP- Jose era as well!!!

    • AB7.38pt.on.CB4

      D Casey loves Bargnani and that’s is a fact.

      • Nilanka15

        He also loves Jamaal Magloire…

      • Destro

        I called Casey last night and he didnt say he loved em,he said he is fine with working with him for now while hes contractually obligated too…call Casey and find out for yourself…

    • sangaman

      Bargs has been getting better every year in all aspects, is now a 20+ point scorer yet you assholes continue to slag the teams best player. Ask yourselves what happened after he was injured last year? No player in the league save lebron and kobe is without weaknesses, and this talent is reserved for major US cities. IF Casey can engineer a team like the Dallas Mavericks raps will compete seriously in the league..with Bargs not without him

      • Destro

        We sucked with and without him it didnt matter….previous year we won 22 games WITH him all season….He doesnt rebound and D up like a man,thats our problem…

  • John

    BC is a good … The way he manouvers the deals and make them happen is just amazing and dare I say beautiful. 

    Liston, Can you do an statistical analysis on Fields as well versus few other choices around !! I am sure if you look into those data and do some of your magic, we can all see the value in that 20 million over the next 3 years deal.

    For me, BC can do no wrong … yes, he signed Hedo, Kapano, JO, Marion and … but if you look at the matrixes and data and stats, they all made perfect sense AT the TIME.

    GOOOOOO RAPTORS…. GOOOO BC 

    I just hope we can keep him and none of the big US teams steal him from us.

    • URaGuAY

      Well a forumer here says BC “gots2go”

    • AB7.38pt.on.CB4

      Fields contract is backloaded. It count for $ 5 mil next year, that’s what BC is going to pay for him.Who knows where LF will be in 3 years time.He could be traded as an expiring asset for a big contract during his last year. The reality is the new rules has given to GM extra juice in making deals.

      No contract is unmovable (see Hedo,Joe Johnson)

      D Casey must be opening a Champagne Bottle with Lowry trade (that’s was his choice, as per T Ross)

      • John

        Here you are .. It already makes a lot of sense to pay fields 20 million and I am sure Liston can shed more lights on it.

  • HitItHardFromTheBack

    Lmao erryone goin IN on this dude Gots2Go….

    • Nilanka15

      The world would be a very boring place if we all agreed on everything.  Gots2Go’s posts are rude, repetitive and often nonsensical, but they add to the variety of opinions found on this site.  Hate-filled or not, they (sometimes) fuel good discussion.

      • Destro

        NO theyre not its just most sheep in here cant think for themselves,dudes has some opinions that go against the grain (nothing wrong with that)

  • Daniel

    Tom, Morey knows all this statistical stuff and more. He’s a well-known Moneyball disciple. You are using one season statistics instead of career statistics that give you a more complete idea of trends and standard deviations, however that’s a small point. I’m baffled by the reason Morey gave Lowry away almost for free. In addition if the Knicks match Lin’s contract then Houston don’t have a PG on their roster. McHale is well known as a players’ coach so what gives? Is he not coachable? How is his chemistry with the teammates? Why was he not able to get the starting position back from Dragic after injury? What is the nature of his injury? I definitely prefer him to Nash signing however I’m in a wait and see approach. He doesn’t seem to be a playmaker, he’s more of a scorer, so we need wings capable to make plays.

    • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

      Because Lowry & McHale didn’t get along…….McHale is a well known asshole around the NBA….

      Dragic was palying out of his mind while Lowry was injured….

      Houston can go after Aaron Brooks, RFelton, RSessions…Calderon (amnesty)?

      Btw Google is your friend…..

      • Daniel

        You are presenting news and not insight from the Rockets organization. News don’t explain things, they just report the consequences.
        Kid, try not to reply to my posts. You are just a troll with a huge need for recognition. I don’t need the freakin Google to inform me about basketball.

        • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

          In the words of Ice T only women ain’t bitches some of you men are- Bitches II http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AlbqhlRFLE&feature=related – byyyaaiitcchh, now go- Check Yo’ Self  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKJsSPATDLY before you wreck urself cuz big nuts in yo’ mouth is bad for ya health.

    • TheTyrant

      I think the concerns about coachability are warranted; however, a few things should be mentioned. He’s getting moved to a new situation -a clean slate. Perhaps maturity as a player will play a role. Also, hes got a connection with perhaps one of the favourite players the Raps ever had in Alvin Williams… that’s gotta be good for management.

      I don’t know McHale’s coaching style in detail, but he doesn’t rub off as a guy who’d you want to play hard for… bit too gregarious for my liking…I could totally see his personality as a hit-or-miss… nothing like DC.

      I am surprised that Houston has given up so little for the guy. The only thing I can see is that they’re trying to really create something from scratch with their new picks, create a new identity.

    • Lorenzo

      I like McHale from what I saw of him on NBATV for the past couple of seasons. I really don’t understand what’s not to like. Even Budinger said that he had some issues with McHale and was glad to be in Minny. Ouch.

      I don’t have the source,

      • Nilanka15

        Yup, I’ve heard many of the same knocks on McHale.  He seems to piss people off where ever he goes. 

        Not to make excuses for Lowry, but there might be a legitimate other side to this story.

      • Destro

        What you see on tv is not a representation of anybodys personality behind closed doors….If you put 2 and 2 together its obvious why Lowry didnt like
        McHale…He played well got hurt and then wasnt allowed to take his job back….

    • http://twitter.com/Liston Tom Liston

      I think you nailed it – these are all concerns: “McHale is well known as a players’ coach so what gives? Is he not coachable? How is his chemistry with the teammates? Why was he not able to get the starting position back from Dragic after injury? What is the nature of his injury?”

      Hence the “good deal”.  Doug Smith makes a good point this morning: “Lowry and (Raptors Scout Alvin) Williams remain close and the friendship will undoubtedly easy Lowry’s transition to the Toronto franchise.”
      http://www.thestar.com/sports/basketball/nba/article/1222043–raptors-acquire-kyle-lowry-from-houston-rockets 

      I believe “statistically” – advanced and otherwise – the Rockets like him.

    • Destro

      Problem with “money ball” is it has never succeeded…

    • Jeev

      What makes a good playmaker? Lowry (based on the stats reported above) is more a of a defensive-minded pg. If anything he’s less of a scorer considering his ppg is likely within 1-5% of the above mentioned PG’s (except for D.Will). Arguably, Jose Calderon is a playmaking PG (when you factor in his apg and assisst/to percentage) and that has gotten the Raptors nowhere fast. 

  • rus

    Lowry might of had a fluke outlier 3pt % season, his other seasons are well below that mark of 37%
    But don’t get me wrong, if he plays hard, doesn’t mind sharing time with a healthy Bayless or Jose, then this trade could be a homerun….

    • http://twitter.com/Liston Tom Liston

      True.  But he has shot over 37% in the last two years – the only years he fired 200 or more 3pt attempts.
      http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lowryky01.html 

      • Bob

        Exactly, why are you gonna hate on his 3pt % from previous seasons when he’s been consistently knocking them down for the last 2 seasons? His 3pt shot has obviously improved significantly over the last couple of years

  • Jeev

    Why did you use percent increase/decrease instead of percent difference?