As the Toronto Raptors prepare to play their tenth game, the fan base has already experienced a season’s worth of emotion. Initial ecstasy over the teams 5-0 start gave way to the turtle effect of 3 consecutive losses. Suffering the disappointment of losing yet another first round playoff series was painful. But, the manner in which the team was dispensed makes it impossible to ignore the familiar anxiety that comes with any Raptors regression. Suddenly everyone is worried about a shortage of 3-point shooting, bench depth (particularly with regard to scoring) and injuries.
Given the lack of response last season to early warning signs I decided to look deeper and decipher fact from fiction.
To that end, the burning question is: are we over reacting or not reacting enough?
Things could be worse:
Losing DeMarre Carroll to plantar fasciitis, Terrence Ross to a tendon issue in his thumb and the’ Where’s Waldo’ disappearance of Patrick Patterson is definitely cause for pause, however things could be worse.
Toronto’s next two opponents perfectly epitomize this tenet. The New Orleans Pelicans were projected to take another step up the ladder and franchise star Anthony Davis was many pundits preseason pick to win M.V.P. Instead the squad has a single victory in 8 attempts and are saddled with injury. Despite these road blocks the Pelicans continue to insist on pushing pace, ignoring their 30th rank in defense and opponent points per game. Moreover, while their pace is vastly improved (27th last season vs. 6th this season) their offense has actually dropped 5 spots from 9th to 14th.
In the case of the Sacramento Kings (2-7), is it obtuse to imply they live in an alternate universe? Seriously though, In what sporting industry is it normal for General Managers to join ‘player only’ meetings to get feedback on coach firings? Can you even fathom Masai Ujiri seeking council from DeMar DeRozan let alone Bruno Caboclo on whether Dwane Casey should be released? Regardless of how it’s being publicly spun, it’s seems certain Karl has lost control and won’t last the season.
Other notable early season favorites like Memphis Grizzlies (3-6) are mired in a style suited for a decade earlier with their calling card of defense and rebounding ranking 21st and 25th respectively. The Grizzlies finished 2015 with the 4th best defense and 13th ranked offense in the Association. Their off season goal was to improve offensively, but they did nothing to surround their big men with floor spacers or 3 point specialists. After years of succeeding with the same grind house strategy, teams are simply packing the paint and forcing them to shoot.
And the team who wiped the hardwood with Raptor blood last spring have abandoned the defensive strategy that propelled them upward in favor of increased pace. In theory it made sense especially with a talent like John Wall, but the result has been a drop from 5th to 24th defensively. And while the Wizards hold the quickest pace in the Association this offensive strategy dropped them 7 spots from last season’s 18th rank to 25th this year. The Wizard’s situation is oddly reminiscent of the Raptors last season with the difference being Toronto didn’t fall off that quickly and at least their offense was stellar.
Preseason Projected Strengths Prove Unfounded:
For the purpose of this comparison I’ve removed the Golden State Warriors, Cleveland Cavaliers and San Antonio Spurs. These three teams are performing to preseason expectations and share common ground:
- All 3 are power house teams who have won or been to the finals the past three seasons
- Each has retained their core group and/or added talent
- All 3 have a player on the roster who has won a regular season MVP
- All 3 have a Championship MVP on their squad
- Cleveland and San Antonio place in the top 10 in each of the four major categories of points/rebounds/assists per game and opponent points per game, while Golden State is in the top 10 for all but rebounding (12th).
Prior to season start there was a near unanimous consensus among major media prognosticators which teams would compete for playoff seeding with slight variances, specifically for the bottom 2 seeds. In the East 6 teams were on virtually every list as the contenders behind Cleveland:
In the West all 8 playoff seeds were predicted, again close to unanimously by the National Media as likely to join Golden State and San Antonio in the post season (with the top 3 listed as potential home court seeds).
- Los Angeles Clippers
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Houston Rockets
- Memphis Grizzlies
- New Orleans Pelicans
- Utah Jazz
Slight variances occurred for the 8th seed with Utah projected prominently, however other scribes debated the merits of Phoenix Suns or Sacramento Kings as potential dark horses. (Though my on record pick of the Minnesota Timberwolves is starting to look like a very strong candidate)
Considering these nearly unanimous selections, I dove into 4 main categories to compare the Toronto Raptors current situation to their counterparts:
The Results:
Hawks: Not surprisingly Atlanta are top 5 in the 2 offensive categories, but 29th in rebounding.
Pistons: Are the yin to Atlanta’s yang showing well defensively and terribly offensively.
Bulls: The only team that doesn’t rank in the 20’s in at least one category. Having said that for a team who are trying to be offensive juggernauts this season it’s telling they rank 17th in the 2 offensive categories and have only one top 10.
Rockets: Poor performance across the board sparked by three 20-point losses to start the season had them ranked in the cellar. Their subsequent 4-wins improved their rank, but they still have major work to do specifically on defense. Like the Raptors they are integrating a new core component (Ty Lawson), shifting resources and have had issues at the power forward (though theirs are health related).
Clippers: Have fallen off on both sides of the court, but have real issues defensively. For those wondering how much improved their depth is, this week with Chris Paul injured the Clippers looked average. Though there are other teams requiring immediate fixes their defense is in dire need of a shake-up and what’s more it’s shocking they are 16th ranked in assists.
Grizzlies, Pelicans, Wizards: I detailed these 3 in the first segment, however actually seeing their ranks across the 4 categories shines a light on exactly how far these teams have fallen. The Pelicans can claim injury and integration of a new philosophy to bide some time. However the drastic drop-off of the relatively injury free Wizards and Grizzlies gives credence to the possibility George Karl may actually outlast Randy Wittman and Dave Joerger.
Heat: They looked like world beaters vs. the Raptors and appear to be the team who could finish second if they can stay healthy, but closer examination of their offense highlights the need to develop that aspect of their game.
Bucks: For a team with so much length it was presumable their rebounding would be an asset, so color me shocked they rank dead last!
Thunder: Best of the teams listed ranking top 5 in 3 categories, but the opponent scoring is an issue. They’ve shown signs of improvements this week and are the most likely to join the upper 3 once they learn how to manage their resources.
Jazz: Only team other than Memphis to rank below 20 in three categories. As good as they are defensively if anyone solves how to master their defense this team could fall quickly.
Raptors: In comparison to the above preseason top ranked squads the Raptors rank just behind OKC for combined category performance. They have 2 top 10 categories and only fell out of one when Carroll got injured (points per game). Their Achilles Heel is assists which is an obvious learning curve given how much iso-ball was flowing in the North last year.
As it turns out a side benefit of not having Carroll available is the team finally seems to understand the need to move the ball, dishing 25 and 22 assists in their last two.
Summary:
Suffice to say every single team listed has at least one major area to fix. and many squads aren’t dealing with injury or new personnel. Toronto has both to contend with.
Bottom line, while the Raptors need to be careful over the upcoming 5-game road trip, garnering a split should be deemed a success. If they can utilize the time to forge greater chemistry and improve their ball/player movement it will be a bonus.
And, I can’t help but point out the obvious: should Norman Powell and James Johnson continue to provide solid 2-way contributions it could force Casey’s hand for playing time once the Raptors are healthy. In fact, we could find ourselves looking back at this specific time frame as the catalyst that served to expedite the team’s success.
