Fan Duel Toronto Raptors

Breaking it Down: The game-winning possession

This was terrific.

The Toronto Raptors won a game on a buzzer-beater that was borne of a really nice ATO. I am Bruno’s wrinkled eyebrows and moderate surprise.

One of the biggest complaints amid the Raptors’ 11-6 start is that their late-game execution is often found wanting. The team leans far too heavily on DeMar DeRozan to score in isolation sets, eschewing ball movement, 3-point attempts, and often even just getting DeRozan moving to create an advantage before his attack.

That seemed like how Saturday’s game against the Washington Wizards was going to play out. Here’s a big chunk of my recap coming in the morning that discusses the questionable strategic decisions in the game’s final minute:

Here’s a quick game recap: 42 seconds left, down 80-79. Both teams have timeouts left, so if the Raptors score, the Wizards will definitely be taking a timeout.

Casey makes the curious move of leaving Bismack Biyombo on the floor, borderline inexcusable given his lack of offensive utility, Patrick Patterson’s ability to help stretch the floor, and the existence of a Wizards timeout (Casey would have an opportunity to get Biyombo back in for defense). The play-call is all too familiar, too: DeRozan gets a running start moving across the top of the key, gets a pass and attacks the lengthy Porter, who hasn’t been put at enough of a disadvantage with the pre-pass off-ball action.

DeRozan misses on a brutal baseline pull-up attempt with a hand in his face, and the Raptors manage to tap the rebound back out for a second chance. DeRozan and Biyombo look to work a screen-and-roll with Porter and Gortat, but neither defender is paying Biyombo any attention, and so DeRozan is essentially double-teamed. He tries to drive through it, sees a passing lane too late, and falls down. Lowry’s forced into a late-clock heave that he misses.

The Raptors foul Wall, he makes a pair, and they calla 20-second timeout.

Again, a recap: 10 seconds to go, down 82-79. Again, Biyombo remains on the floor. Again, the Raptors go DeRozan isolation. Again, the Wizards double off of Biyombo, and DeRozan has little chance at the rim. Luckily, he’s bailed out by a silly Marcin Gortat foul – up three with the Raptors strangely opting to go for two, the Wizards should have been playing a “no fouls, no threes” defense, preventing the possibility for an and-one.

DeRozan makes the freebies, the Raptors foul Wall, and he misses both. Despite managing the last few possessions poorly, the Raptors have another chance.

Following Wall’s misses, Casey calls his final timeout. The clock reads 3.0, and he finally takes Biyombo out, returning Joseph to the game and sliding Luis Scola, who had entered for the last Wizards play, to center. So the Raptors have Kyle Lowry, Joseph, DeRozan, DeMarre Carroll, and Scola on the floor, three seconds, and possession. Almost everyone assumes a DeRozan isolation is coming.

Here’s the initial setup. Putting Lowry deep in the backcourt may seem counter-intuitive since he was having such a great game, but it’s smart – it takes John Wall, a great defender and ball hawk, out of the play, and it really opens up the floor, essentially creating a three-on-three below the inbound.

finalplay1

Look at the way the floor is balanced there. The Wizards have to assume DeRozan is getting the ball. That means Otto Porter can’t really switch on any initial Joseph action, because he needs to stay tight to Scola to be able to help contain DeRozan off a screen. Temple and Sessions can switch or stick to their men depending on how the screen turns out, but the Raptors want to draw a switch since Sessions is an inferior defender.

From here, the Raptors get DeRozan on the move thanks to the Joseph down-screen. Temple is going to switch on to Joseph, Sessions is left to stay with DeRozan, and Porter is getting ready to help on the strong side off of Scola if need be.

finalplay2

DeRozan is going to be put in an advantageous situation unless Porter takes a major gamble and jumps the passing lane when DeRozan comes around. This is the kind of thing that is being griped about when a stationary isolation is called instead of running action to get the isolator on the move and his defender making decisions. DeRozan would be favored heavily facing Sessions one-on-one, and if he draws Porter, instead, having lost Sessions on Scola’s subsequent screen, he has ample space to get a head of steam.

finalplay3

It plays out as a best-case scenario for Toronto. Sessions stays with DeRozan but is a half-step behind and Porter over-commits to recovering on Scola. The floor has been spaced such that it’s a two-on-two, and DeRozan has an edge with the help out of position.

finalplay4

DeRozan receives the pass while turning the corner on Sessions, Porter is tight to Scola too far from the rim, and Bradley Beal isn’t going to have time to help now that the ball’s in. That leaves Temple with the option to help at the rim or let DeRozan get an unimpeded layup.

finalplay5

DeRozan still has a tough choice to make. It would be within his reputation to force a shot at the rim, and he has a size and momentum advantage that would give him at least a decent chance of drawing a foul.

finalplay6

He sees Joseph as Temple stumbles and opts to make what’s now an easier pass, albeit one that comes with 1.5 left on the clock

finalplay7

Here’s the play in full:

What’s interesting about this play is not only that the Raptors drew something up that wasn’t a DeRozan isolation, but that Joseph was the shooter in the corner. He entered play shooting 25 percent on threes and hesitating often with open looks, particularly when opposing guards went under screens. It’s the one area of his game so far this year that could be called in need of improvement, as it would make the deadly Joseph-Lowry duo even more formidable if Joseph’s a threat off the ball. The Raptors gave Joseph in the corner a test run in the first quarter, too.

[gfy]AcidicHeavyIriomotecat[/gfy]

“Be confident in yourself. You’ve got to trust the work you put in,” Joseph said after the game.

That’s been a common refrain for Joseph as he works to expand his 3-point utility. He’s maintained that he was confident in his stroke despite his now-33.3-percent mark from long-range, and he’s just fine with being left open for the time being. If Joseph keeps hitting shots like this, the gravitational pull he’ll have on the defense could open up more options for Casey and DeRozan for future end-game scenarios.

“I know I can make it, I know I can knock it down,” Joseph recently told me for a piece at Sportsnet.ca. “So once I get my 3-point shot going, a lot of players will have to help out, play me closer. That gives Kyle and DeMar (DeRozan) more room to operate.”

Yes. It also gave the Raptors a win on Saturday, and gaveJoseph some love from teammates and other Toronto sports figures.