On January 17th, the Toronto Raptors beat the Brooklyn Nets 119-109, ringing in the third straight double digit victory, fourth straight win and looking like they’d returned to their early season form. They’ve won games since then, including beating the Los Angeles Clippers(who were without Chris Paul at the time), but a 4-10 record since the visit to Barclay’s hasn’t inspired confidence in the fan base, and with a growing clamor to make a move, to acquire the talent that would bring the team back to the heights of just a year ago when the team was considered a championship contender as they marched through January looking like world-beaters. While the roster isn’t perfect, and it would be foolish to pretend it is, with the gap at power forward becoming more and more glaringly obvious with each game Patrick Patterson sits, it’s definitely worth looking internally for improvement at the same time.
First of all, let’s talk about that power forward situation. Because there’s been five players used as the front-court partner for Jonas Valanciunas in the last 14 games, and of them, only two pairings have truly struggled, Pascal Siakam and Jared Sullinger. The response I’ve then seen is that Jakob Poeltl and Lucas Nogueira are centers, not power forwards, so using them at the 4 only highlights the team’s lack of depth at the position, but to some extent, I’m just not sure that matters. If it works, whether or not we think it should be necessary seems on some level irrelevant, because it works. When the team has lost 10 of the last 14 games and you still have pairings with a +31.5 net rating(Patterson), +23.7 net rating(Poeltl), or +5.7 net rating(Nogueira), that should be more important than which guy is supposed to be playing which position.
At the end of the day though, even the front court pairings are immaterial to the larger problem of late game execution. A season ago, the story with Toronto was that they were a weak first and third quarter team, and the bench had to claw the team back into games after the starters would squander leads. Over this last 14 game stretch, the opposite has been true. The Raptors have been the 8th best first quarter team in the league, with a +7.5 net rating, and assisting on 51% of field goals made in the first frame. The defensive numbers still aren’t good in the opening quarter, but the offense has been good enough to make up for it. As the game progresses, both of those numbers drop, however. The team has a +1.0 net rating(17th) and 45.7% assist rate in the 2nd quarter, a -2.1 net rating(18th) and 41.2% assist rate in the third quarter, and a -18.7 net rating(30th) and 44.1% assist rate in the fourth frame.
Last night’s game, in particular, the Detroit Pistons managed their biggest comeback in franchise history as they clawed their way back from a 17-point fourth quarter deficit and outscored Toronto 36-19 in the last period, and the Raptors offense failed to execute. The narrative through the course of the last two years has been that when the Raptors struggle, it’s because Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan don’t get enough help from the supporting cast, and at times that’s certainly been true as different guys have struggled both with consistency and injuries at times, but it wasn’t the case last night. DeMarre Carroll knocked down 15 points on just 9 shots last night while Jonas Valanciunas scored 17 on 14 attempts. Both players were also on the floor for much of the fourth, and Valanciunas managed a put-back off an offensive rebound for two points while Carroll missed his lone attempt in the quarter(a three-point shot with 7:13 remaining) and had a turnover in the last two minutes.
DeRozan and Lowry are All-Stars, and they’ve earned that honor with their impressive play the past few seasons and the load they carry on the offensive end. The credit they were given when the Raptors offense was clicking at a historic rate earlier in the season was certainly deserved, but this is a team not lacking in offensive talent, with Norman Powell, Terrence Ross, DeMarre Carroll, Cory Joseph and Jonas Valanciunas each having topped 20 points this season. And while none of those complementary players has the ability to carry the load DeRozan or Lowry does on a regular basis, they can certainly be leaned on more than they have been in late game scenarios. Whether it comes in the form of Dwane Casey calling better plays to create opportunities for the other guys, or Lowry and DeRozan finding ways to involve them, it simply must be done, because otherwise this team is headed towards a fourth straight playoffs during which they look eminently beatable.
Even last season during the playoffs, as the Raptors made the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time in franchise history, the offense sputtered during the first two rounds, frequently reverting to simply the All-Star guards taking turns attempting to beat the other team singlehandedly while the other players functioned as screen-setters and decoys at best, or observers at worst. Casey’s reputation when the team hired him to helm the bench wasn’t that of someone known for offensive prowess, but we’re now six years into his tenure and there have been comments over the years that could certainly be read as indication that the team’s plan is nothing more than let the two stars do what they want to on that end and focus on the defensive end.
The problem then comes when players are asked to be completely focused on stopping the other team at one end while asked to have no involvement at the other. While it’s easy to say these guys are professionals and should be able to do so, and if they aren’t it’s simply not living up to their roles, they are also human, and it’s easy for any of us to get discouraged when we feel uninvolved.
As I said at the top of the piece, this roster is flawed, there’s no question. Paul Millsap, Serge Ibaka, or Danilo Gallinari could each bring an aspect to this team not currently present. They’d certainly improve the on-court talent in late game scenarios. But as long as the play calling is what it was last night, that might not matter. Because last night Dwane Casey, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan made sure that the other three players on the court for the Raptors wouldn’t matter, no matter who they were, and that applies whether it’s DeMarre Carroll, Terrence Ross, Patrick Patterson, or even Paul Millsap standing in the corner and watching a DeRozan isolation decide games. In order for an improvement in talent to matter, the team first has to acknowledge that there’s talent right now that they’re rendering irrelevant. If the Raptors All-Stars want help, they need to show they know how to ask for it, first.
