When Bryan Colangelo was essentially fired from the basketball side of the Toronto Raptors organization, most observers believed it was the right call. The Raptors are very nearly capped out, with too much money tied up in the contracts of DeMar DeRozan, Rudy Gay, Landry Fields and Andrea Bargnani, and their draft pick is headed to Oklahoma City because of the Kyle Lowry trade, the ramifications of which are still to be seen. With all of that said, there is still reason for hope in Toronto, and that reason comes by way of none other than Colangelo himself: the young Raptors frontcourt duo of Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas.

To date, the signing of Amir Johnson to a long-term deal remains Colangelo’s crowning achievement. Even the drafting of Jonas Valanciunas, who seems more and more awesome with each passing day, didn’t require the prescience, faith, and intelligence that an investment in the young, raw, extremely athletic forward out of Los Angeles did. And although Colangelo’s return on that investment wasn’t enough for him to keep his job, it has provided Toronto with one of the rarest of NBA assets, as described by Zach Lowe: a “big guy who can play both ends at a B-plus level.” The best part, for Raptors fans? Johnson is just 25 years old, and he’s shown the drive and ability to add to and refine his game. Amir could start on maybe half the teams in the NBA next season, and at $6 million a year, that makes him one of Toronto’s two or three best assets.

There’s not much to be said about the big Lithuanian rookie. Injuries (and a lack of success) dropped him from the national spotlight, but also helped him come on strong at the end of the season. His placement on the 2nd All-Rookie team seems fair. It’s a season long honor, and Jonas wasn’t great for the entire season. But what he showed since he came back from the injury has me convinced that he’s destined to be the second best rookie of the class, after Anthony Davis. He’s got a surprisingly smooth offensive game, and his defensive potential is just waiting to be mined. If all goes right, he might be able to hit his projected ceiling, that of “Tyson Chandler with a jump shot.” But it’s still early.

When these two players are paired together, Toronto has a frontcourt that might one day be the centerpiece of a good team. According to nbawowy.com, in the 465 minutes they played together, Toronto scored approximately 1.08 points per possession (PPP), as opposed to their overall mark of approximately 1.06 PPP. This marginal increase in offensive efficiency was accompanied by small improvements in Assist Percentage, Effective Field Goal Percentage, and True Shooting Percentage. It’s on defense where this young frontcourt made it’s greatest impact, though.

As you can see from the table below, Toronto’s defense got noticeably worse when either one or both of Amir and Jonas were off the court. The 655 minutes with neither big man playing were especially harrowing, as the Raptors allowed opponents a rather horrific PPP of 1.144, along with an eFG% of 51.4 and an average two-point shot distance of just 7.92 feet. With Amir and Jonas on the court, those numbers improved dramatically, to .998 PPP, 45.8%, and 9.09 feet. Opponents were forced to rely on midrange jumpers more, and shot dramatically worse at the rim. And because the frontcourt was so adept at turning away intruders to the paint without needing help, lineups with the two young big men even gave up fewer three-point attempts, too.

It’s possible that this has become overly optimistic. Amir and Jonas played together for only 465 minutes, and that’s not just because Dwane Casey really likes Aaron Gray. Amir still fouls too much, and Jonas is still prone to missing rotations. But what the Raptors have for the first time in a while is the chance to forge a real identity around a pair of young, and perhaps most importantly, cheap, players. That’s an opportunity that a lot of teams in the league never have. Whoever the next GM of the Raptors is, he’d be wise to take advantage.

This was a guest post from Atique Virani.

Before this season, the book on Amir Johnson had already been written. He was destined to be a really good bench big whose lack of offensive skills outside of finishing right at the rim would prevent him from ever being an effective starter. Then, something strange happened when Andrea Bargnani was injured. More offensive responsibility was placed on Amir, and he responded beautifully. He maintained his efficiency at the rim while flashing increased ability to score from farther away. He also developed a nice rapport with the (sadly departed) Ed Davis to form one of the more underrated interior passing duos in the league. His growth this season, and his youth (he’s just 25, despite this being his 8th season in the league), beg the question: is Amir Johnson a viable long term starter for the Raptors?

His boxscore stats, even when adjusted for playing time and pace, don’t show any drastic improvement in his game. He’s rebounding and assisting at about the same pace as he always has, and his efficiency has dropped slightly, according to Hoopdata. The biggest change is in his usage, which is the highest it’s been since his 2nd year in the league, when he played in just eight games. That’s the thing about Amir. His minute and pace-adjusted statistics have always been stellar. The problem with him has always been staying on the court and maintaining his production in longer minutes. And that’s where he’s improved this season.

Amir’s defense has been underrated for a few years now. He was an integral cog in Casey’s schemes last year, and this season, especially when he’s played with Valanciunas, he’s been excellent. He still fouls too often but he’s improved his foul rate as the season’s gone on, according to Basketball Reference, possibly as a result of not having to cover for poor perimeter defenders as much. That rapport with Valanciunas is especially promising. According to NBA.com, Toronto’s Defensive Rating when those two are on the court together would rank as the best in the league by a ridiculous margin. Unfortunately, Casey hasn’t played the two together nearly as much as we’d like to see. I’m hopeful that as the season descends more and more into meaninglessness, we see more of this potential front court of the future. They’re both mobile, athletic, long defenders who are willing and able to provide smart help on drives to the rim, and Jonas’ ability to help frees Amir up and allows him to match up against similarly sized players.

I noted that Amir’s defense is sadly underrated, at least by non-local media. His offense is even more unheralded. Before the Gay trade, he formed one of the very best P&R duos in the league with Jose Calderon. The Raptors don’t run the P&R as much since acquiring Rudy, but Amir remains one of the most efficient P&R finishers in the league (joining him, promisingly, is Valanciunas). He doesn’t have the same rapport with Lowry, and Kyle isn’t as good a P&R craftsman as Jose, but they’re both athletic, and the chemistry between the two will come.

Amir’s compensated for the drop in P&R play by becoming a lot better in the post and in isolation. In previous years, when Amir would catch the ball at a standstill with a defender between him and the basket, he’d usually pass the ball off, or, even worse, turn the ball over or miss a wild shot. This season, he’s added a legitimate post move to his nearly barren arsenal, a spin move transitioning to a hook shot that he feels comfortable releasing anywhere within 10 feet. And it’s working, according to Basketball Reference, as he’s shooting nearly 70% on his hook shots. His jump shot remains at a merely passable 35%, however. Amir will never be the type of guy who can change a defense’s complexion with his post play but this improvement means teams cannot ignore him in non-P&R situations. The attention he draws now is integral to Toronto’s offense.

One last improvement that might point to a future as a starter: Amir’s passing. His big- to-big passes with Boss Davis have drawn attention nationally, even being noted by such luminaries as Grantland’s Zach Lowe, and for good reason. Amir’s become one of the better passing big men in the league. According to Hoopdata, Amir’s Assist Rate is better than that of All Star level forwards David West, Tim Duncan, and Kevin Garnett. Amir still turns the ball over a lot but the improvement in passing is promising for his future.

Amir’s intangibles this season have been immaculate as always. He turns his ankle more than Stephen Curry, it seems, but he’s still one of the hardest working, toughest players in the league. He’s that rare commodity – a hustle player who also has legitimate basketball skill. And he’s only 25. There’s really no reason to believe he can’t be a legitimate starting calibre power forward for the next handful of years.

This was a guest post from Atique VIrani, who may or may not have just been trolling Matt Moore.

To say “I hope you watched Homeland this season” is a lot like saying “I hope you watched the Raptors this season” in the sense that it’s not a very nice thing to hope for. Both franchises had a lot of buzz this year, Homeland coming off a multiple Emmy winning first season, and the Raptors having made multiple roster moves, but it’s safe to say that both have under performed, taking a hard left into reality TV level programming. But on the off chance that you, like some people here at Raptors Republic, have managed to submit yourself to both, this is the piece for you.

Both the Raptors and Homeland have had characters as well as storylines disappoint viewers all season long, and as I watched both of these develop, I couldn’t help but make some connections between the two.

Bargnani is Carrie

• Once his mind is made up about doing something, nothing can get in his way. He moves through the key with reckless abandon, head down as he barrels his way to (somewhere near) the rim. Sometimes he does this because Casey has called his number on a play call, much like Saul might call on Carrie in a time of need, but mostly he does this out of a deep, frenzied hunger to score and be validated. Regardless of motivation, once his mind says he’s taking one dribble to his right and putting up a jumper, he cannot be stopped.
• He seems virtually unreachable by any coach, GM, or team-mate; his lack of self-awareness can only be matched by the likes of Carrie Mathison, who’s had sex with a known terrorist while being recorded by her CIA colleagues.
• I would not so boldly contend that trying to build a team around Bargnani has been more disastrous for the Raptors than Carrie’s career has been for the CIA. At least she put in a few all star seasons in her prime.

Dwane Casey is Saul Berenson

Every once in a while he leans in close and whispers, “What the fuck are you doing?” in Bargnani’s ear. In the end, he ends up playing him despite everyone else seeing how terrible he is for the team, and despite repeated, well documented past failures.

Sidenote: I acknowledge that although his beard has improved drastically since last season, Casey’s facial hair game is no where near on par with Mandy Patinkin’s. I would even push this a step further, and argue that Patinkin’s “touch of grey” on the end of his goatee shames even all-timers like Emmitt Smith and Walt Frasier.

Colangelo is David Estes

• He has a good reputation, he’s smart, and he’s enjoyed some success in the past, but he is short-sighted, and repeatedly sends the same screw-ups out there to do the job.
• This cannot be confirmed, but I sense that he’s also on the verge of submitting Casey to a polygraph test so that he can cause him to miss a game, an offence for which he will subsequently be fired.

Kyle Lowry is Peter Quinn

• Here we have what is clearly the best and smartest player on the team being forced by BC/Estes to play with the dysfunctional Bargs/Carrie.
• Lowry was also the first Raptor to get injured and miss time. He then came back way before he was supposed to, matched only by Quinn returning to the CIA headquarters just one day after suffering multiple gunshot wounds.
• These guys are dedicated, competent, and should be the focus of the franchise moving forward.

John Lucas is Chris (Brody’s son)

• He’s just happy to be on the show and excited that every room in the hotel has a big screen TV. He came into this year filled with excitement and joy, and his smile is slowly fading under the constant threat of everything being blown up.

Chris Bosh is Brody

• Undoubtedly, he provided years of good service, but now he has been turned.
• It’s likely that he, like Brody, spends a lot of his time huddled in corners crying and trying to avoid the outside world because they don’t understand him. Ultimately, he just wants to make LeBron (Abu Nasir) proud.

This post is written by RR Prospect, Dragos Nica.

Ed’s Note: Another post by GetDefensive.

The 2012-13 Raptors are littered with redundant talent.  At point guard alone there’s Kyle Lowry, a borderline All-Star when healthy, Jose Calderon, a player who’s flirted with the All-Star Game himself and is coming off a strong year, and John Lucas III, a player who filled in admirably as the primary backup for the Bulls in the playoffs last year when Derrick Rose tore his ACL.  At shooting guard we have incumbent starter DeMar DeRozan, a rookie who may push him for minutes in Terrence Ross, and our marquee free agent signing: Landry Fields.  None of these players is decidedly more talented than the others, the only reason playing time won’t be much of an issue is because of the glaring hole at small forward.  Some, or all, of these players will undoubtedly spend time at the 3 with the only competition there being Linas Kleiza, a player who’s actually more effective as a 4.  Speaking of power forward, here’s where we have the greatest congestion of similarly talented players on the roster.  Andrea Bargnani is the starter, finally at his natural position after years of being cast as a centre, and with short stints at small forward.  After him, we have Ed Davis, a young player in need of playing time to encourage development, Amir Johnson, who will follow in Bargnani’s footsteps and be forced into the centre position out of necessity, the aforementioned Kleiza, who will spend most of his time at small forward, and Quincy Acy, an undersized PF who isn’t skilled enough to play the 3.  The centre position is quite possibly the only position that needn’t be shuffled in trade this season as, while not overly talented, the current rotation allows for plenty of development for the Lithuanian sensation, Jonas Valanciunas.  So who stays?  Who goes?  What realistic moves can Bryan Colangelo make that could help balance the roster?  Read on….

Point Guard:

The answer here is obvious and it’s been discussed at length by almost everyone who follows the Raptors.  If Kyle Lowry is the future of this team at the PG position and Jose Calderon feels like he’s a starter and is being paid like a starter, then he is the likely candidate to be shipped out.  This is especially true when our 3^rd point guard has proven himself capable of stepping up when needed.  Jose could really help a playoff contender in need of steady point guard play or 3 point shooting, especially if there’s an injury.  With an expiring contract (worth over $10.5 million), Jose also has tremendous value to a team looking to rebuild quickly or cut costs.  As I said, this story has already been beaten to death so I’ll end the explanation right there.

Shooting Guard:

Here it’s a little more difficult for some, but for me the answer is nearly as obvious as our point guard situation: DeMar DeRozan has got to go.  There are a number reasons for this, and it deserves explanation.  First of all, he has begun to plateau as a player, although enough excuses have been made for him that another team may still be convinced of his potential.  I, however, am not.  For my taste, he’s too slow and robotic out there.  He doesn’t have the feel for the game or the ball-handling to react quickly.  Maybe it’s just me, but I feel like the great ones are playing chess while DeMar’s playing checkers, and he still takes longer to make his damn move.  He hasn’t shown much, if any, actual improvements to his game since he was a rookie, it’s only his usage that has gone up.  Still, there are many people out there who think he could still put it all together.  I’m not saying it couldn’t happen, just that I’d be pleasantly surprised.  If he doesn’t make serious progress this season, his value will plummet.

Another reason: his contract is up at the end of the year.  Like most players in his position, having been coddled as he has, DeMar probably sees his value a lot higher than it actually is.  What do we do if he starts demanding $10 million per?  Do we let him walk and regret not trading him while we could?  Or do we re-sign him for too much when some other idiot GM decides to offer him what he wants and we have to match?  That would cripple this team going forward.  Too much money invested in a mediocre player that doesn’t produce wins?  Haven’t I seen this one before?

Lastly, we already have his replacement.  Terrence Ross may take a few years to get acclimated to the NBA, but what better way than to clear up minutes for him at his natural position?  His skill-set is a better fit with Lowry anyway; Lowry can drive, Ross can shoot.  On a very basic level it makes more sense that DeRozan and Lowry, doesn’t it?  And, by most accounts, Ross has the talent to be better than DeRozan in a number of areas very quickly if he isn’t already: shooting, passing, dribbling, defense; you know, the little things.  If he falls on his face, fine, at least we gave him the chance and cashed DeMar in for another asset while it was still possible to do so.  And we’ll still have the 6 million dollar man in Fields waiting in the wings to relieve the young fella if need be.

Power Forward:

The most congested position on the Raptors also presents the most difficult decision, and it essentially comes down to 2 players: Amir Johnson and Ed Davis.  Some people will always want Andrea gone but I just don’t see it happening.  Colangelo has been unwilling to waver on his faith in Bargnani so far, and we still haven’t crossed the final excuse off the list he’s made for him: playing Andrea at his natural position at power forward.  Not to mention, Bargnani showed more promise in his 1^st 13 games under Dwane Casey than he ever had at any other point in his career.  There’s just no way BC gives up on him now, not with what he feels is the perfect interior compliment to Bargnani in Jonas Valanciunas finally making his way to Toronto.  Removing Kleiza or Acy doesn’t really do anything, Kleiza will barely play PF and Acy, well… he’ll just barely play.

So, back to Johnson and Davis.  Who stays, who goes?  In my opinion, Amir is still the better player.  He’s a better defender.  He’s got more hustle, more strength, more experience, and more versatility.  He can play centre in a pinch, particularly against backups without an advanced post-up game (in other words: most back-ups).  I’m not sold Davis can, at least not yet, anyway.  What Davis has is potential, youth, a cheaper contract, length, and a better rebounding ability.  Many of the differences are slight at this point, and it’s reasonable to suggest that Davis may be the better player in a few years.  For me, however, he’s the one who’s got to go.  Here’s 2 reasons why:

1^st Reason – Value

In trade, if a team is giving up the better talent, they need to be able to justify it with a number of things in return: youth, potential, fit, and salary.  In most, if not all of these categories, Davis is superior to Amir from the incoming team’s perspective.  Amir has played 7 seasons in the NBA, he essentially is already the player that we’re going to see for the remainder of his career.  Davis is entering his 3^rd year, and any disappointment so far has been wrapped into a nice bow of excuses and explanations.  So many, in fact, that much like in DeMar’s case someone is going to be inclined to believe them and take a chance.  And if it doesn’t work out?  Fine, he’s still on a very manageable rookie contract which expires in 2 years.  Amir has 3 years and $19.5 million left on his deal.  Adding someone like Davis to a trade will return you much more than adding Amir.

2^nd Reason – Versatility

One of the main reasons I would rather keep Johnson is ability to play centre.  If our goal at the position is to develop Valanciunas without compromising our ability to fight for a playoff spot, then Amir is essential to meeting these goals.  We needn’t bring in a talented, true centre to nail Jonas to the bench, but we also can’t just hang a rookie out there to dry with only Aaron Gray and the ghost of Jamaal Magloire to back him up.  The biggest thing I expect the rookie to struggle with is foul trouble, something Johnson himself is certainly no stranger to.  If anything, he may even be able to help him in that regard as he’s been battling that demon his entire career and has actually improved in that area.  Still, there will be nights where Amir will have to step up and play the position alongside Bargnani, something I’m not yet particularly comfortable having Davis do at this point.

With all that being said, I’m not entirely opposed if Amir is the one who has to go, but I would prefer that it’s Davis.  Like I said: this one’s tough, it could go either way.  If Johnson has to go to make the right deal work, so be it.

So now that we’ve established who’s got to go, who do we get in return?  I would say our biggest needs this season are going to be a go-to scorer, more athleticism on the wing (especially with DeMar gone, although he never really uses his athleticism anyway), perimeter shooting, and perimeter defense.  We need an upgrade in our talent level altogether, so a package involving all 3 players for 1 or 2 players in return seems like the way to go.  Perhaps someone a bit overpaid would yield a higher return in talent, with the other team motivated by the potential and cap savings of the package we can offer.  If you put it all together with the obvious hole we have at small forward, a few prime candidates emerge.  (Another backup or 3^rd string PG would certainly help as well.)

Rudy Gay:

This one’s easy, another topic that has been discussed at length.  I, for one, don’t believe there’s a better option out there (if this could even be called an option).  I have my doubts about whether Memphis would pull the trigger, unless they get off to a bad start to the season, but I would have no problem with Toronto offering all 3 of Calderon, DeMar, and Davis for Gay and someone like Tony Wroten Jr., who I think could really thrive with the right collection of talent around him (he’s not really the point of this discussion, but a line-up featuring Wroten with a bunch of shooters like Ross/Fields, Gay and Bargnani, as well as a good pick and roll finisher like Amir/Val, could eventually really thrive I think).  Gay is one of the few players out there that could fill most of the holes on the Raptors.  He’s clutch, a go-to scorer not afraid of the big moments.  He’s athletic, and he actually uses it unlike DeMar.  He’s a pretty decent shooter (although last year was a down season from 3 for him), a decent defender (better than DeRozan anyway), and a natural small forward.  He’s also a good rebounder, a necessity for any forward playing next to Andrea.

If Memphis did this deal, they would have to be sold on the potential of either DeRozan or Davis, and playing poorly enough to dismantle a big part of their core.  However, they must be feeling the financial pinch at this point with so many high-priced players; if they can pick up a younger, poor-man’s Gay (DD), significant cap space (Jose), and a young big with potential (Ed) for an over-paid Rudy Gay, you’d have to think they’d give it some thought.

Yes, I know, then we’d be stuck with an over-paid Rudy Gay, but we’re in a much better position to handle that salary.  2 of our potential starters in this scenario (although it’s possible neither start initially) are just beginning their rookie contracts.  Lowry has 1 of the best contracts in basketball, even Bargnani and Amir aren’t as over-paid as people seem to make them out to be.  What we need is to sacrifice depth where we’re too deep for an upgrade in talent where we aren’t.  I’d even throw in cash and a 2^nd-rounder if it meant getting a deal done.  This is one that the Raps should be pushing hard for early, before the internal competition on our roster robs each of these players of much of their value.

Danny Granger:

If there’s 2 spots the Pacers need help at, it’s shooting guard and power forward.  They have quality starters at PG, SF, and C, and while David West is good at PF, he’s also on the last year of his contract.  A little depth could never hurt in that scenario.  At SG, the Pacers start the 6’8’’ Paul George, a player much more suited to play small forward.  The problem is: that spot is occupied by former All-Star Danny Granger.  Granger is a jack-of-all-trades, master of none.  He’s a sound defender, a good shooter, an adequate rebounder, and he wants to be the guy with the ball in his hands at the end of games.  Not quite the scorer that he once was, Danny would still represent a serious upgrade at that position for Toronto.  With only 2 years left on his contract at a reasonable $13+ million per, Granger may be a tough sell for the Pacers, but it’s definitely worth it for BC to take a shot if he can find a deal that works.  I won’t speculate on details here, as it’s difficult to make salaries match without finding a 3^rd team or completely fleecing either ourselves or the Pacers.  This makes it all the more unlikely, but Colangelo has shown a talent for complicated deals like this before, although sometimes with mixed results.  Fingers crossed….

Luol Deng:

An acquisition that doesn’t quite solve our problems like Gay and Granger, Deng would still certainly improve our team.  His greatest contributions come in the form of leadership and basketball intelligence, 2 attributes that would certainly be welcome on a young team such as this.  While not really athletic, Deng uses his size and intelligence well and is actually a very effective defender.  Aside from that, there’s nothing about his game that really stands out, but he won’t really hurt the team in any areas either.  He’s a decent shooter but not much for creating his own shot.  He’s a good rebounder (noticing a pattern here?) but not an exceptionally adept passer for someone of his intelligence.  A solid player all around, he’d be an excellent pick-up for the Raptors provided we don’t give up too much in return.

Would a deal including Jose and DeMar for Deng and Marquis Teague be appealing?  Chicago could use some help at PG to hold things down until Rose returns, and with Jose’s expiring contract and the youth of DeRozan, the Bulls could potentially rebuild on the fly without surrendering too much in the win column in the meantime.  They don’t really have much use for Davis and that’d be too much to give up anyway; as it is this deal seems mutually beneficial for both teams.  In Teague the Raps would get a young, talented player to be our 3^rd-string point guard and eventually maybe even the primary backup.

I know there’s other options out there, but these are the 3 most talented, somewhat attainable players out there at a position of need for us.  We thin out some of the log-jams at other positions and fill a gaping hole at small forward with a player more talented than most, if not all, of our current roster.  I know some of you are going to freak that we’re giving up too much here or that our players aren’t good enough to get a deal done there.  I’m damned if I do, I’m damned it I don’t.  Just try to keep in mind that each of our players I listed is highly expendable at this point, and in each case here I would probably give up a little more even just to get a deal done.  Unless it’s a complete robbery (ex. Carmelo to Knicks), the team that gets the best player usually wins the trade.  Depth can only get you so far when you can only have 5 players on the court at once, hell Miami just won a title with 2 and a half men.  Lowry was a good start, and Bargnani’s coming around, but would’ve been strong at those positions regardless.  It’s time to get some real talent where we need it most.

Thank you for reading.

Ed’s Note: This is a guest post by GetDefensive.

Aside from a couple early flameouts in the Dunk Contest by DeMar DeRozan, the Raptors have scarcely been represented at all-star weekend since Chris Bosh left town.  Sure, there’s been the occasional Rookie-Sophomore game representative (I think?) but anyone that expected a Raptor to be playing on Sunday either needed his head examined or knew where Amir plays pickup on his days off.  Sure, Valanciunas and Ross could potentially find themselves representing the rookies, but like every Raptors fan I find myself constantly wanting, even hopelessly expecting, more.  Here’s a look at the Raptors’ chances at making the big game this season:

 Lucky to get a seat as a fan:

In this category, also called the “No chance in hell” section, we find roughly half of those expected to attend training camp.  Legends like the great John Lucas III and the immovable Aaron Gray headline this crowd and are joined by a long list of players that would be ecstatic to still be on an NBA roster in February.  This list includes Alan Anderson, Dominic McGuire, Quincy Acy, Jamaal (ugh!) Magloire, Chris Wright and Jerel McNeal (who?), of which a few most certainly will not survive the preseason.  Moving on….

It would take A LOT of luck, improvement, and injuries

(And most people still wouldn’t agree):

In our second group things start to look a little more optimistic, in much the same way that -40 degrees looks more optimistic than -50.  Long story short: it doesn’t look good either way.  Both these zebras have shown their stripes and barring some miracle, highly unexpected serious improvement, they’ll be watching from their couches like the rest of us.  It’s here we find our resident Lithuanian translator Linas Kleiza and perpetual potential himself, Mr. Amir Johnson.  In theory, there’s an outside chance for anyone who’s scored 40 points in an NBA game like Kleiza has.  And you never know when someone with the tools and hustle of Amir might put it all together and stay on the court long enough to shock the world.  In all likelihood, however, we are seriously grasping at straws here.  Next.

The unknowns:

In this group we find our prized rookies (I said prized, apologies to Mr. Acy who is only prized by friends and family – and NOT in a basketball sense).  Although unlikely, there is always a chance a lottery selection like Terrence Ross or Jonas Valanciunas could blow the roof off the building in year one and find themselves in the big game.  However, seeing as how only Blake Griffin and Tim Duncan have made the team as rookies in the last 15 years (without the aid of a billion or so Chinese voters, that is – shout out to Yao), and because Big Val has already been injured in pre-preseason, I’ll sum up this analysis with a simple “Good luck boys, you’re gonna need it.”

Potentially still have potential:

Here we have Landry Fields and Ed Davis, two 3^rd-year pros who showed less in their 2^nd seasons than they did in their 1^st.  Is it possible that Fields was just a victim of the ball domination of Carmelo Anthony? Sure.  Is it possible that a full training camp will make all the difference in the world for Davis?  Absolutely.  But we’re talking about the All-Star game here, folks, and either player making the team would surprise more people than if Reggie Miller’s annoying voice found its way onto a regular broadcasting crew.  Oh wait….

On the outside looking in:

He’s almost made it before, but Jose Calderon’s all-star fate was officially sealed the minute Bryan Colangelo acquired Kyle Lowry for a rack of basketballs and a 24-pack of Molson Canadian.  The only way he makes it: if Lowry gets injured early and both the team and Calderon greatly exceed expectations.  Otherwise he could hope for a trade and a starting gig elsewhere, and then all bets are off.  Although still a long shot it could happen, but then he wouldn’t be representing the Raptors anyway.

That leaves the only 3 that have any real shot, and in hindsight I probably could’ve started and ended with these 3 instead of writing what amounted to a season preview but alas, I’ve come much too far to not waste your time like I have wasted my own.

DeMar DeRozan:

Enough excuses have been made for this young man that I’m almost starting to believe them, but this has to be his year.  Hopefully he has no lady troubles this season and he definitely shouldn’t be surprised when his coach actually demands he play defense (seriously, how could he have expected that after the way the franchise coddled him his 1^st 2 years?).  For him to make it, he’s gonna have to dominate against real competition, not the Drew League scrubs we see him beat up on every summer.  He’s got to commit to playing defense so Coach Casey doesn’t sit him in favour of Fields or Ross and show real improvement on the glaring weaknesses that were present in his game last season.  That means a tighter handle, consistent shooting, extended range, and a more aggressive mindset.  If he shows all of that, he might have a shot.

Andrea Bargnani:

As good a chance as any on this team, Andrea played the 1^st 13 games last year like a man who wanted this.  He was playing defence like I never thought I’d live to see, he was scoring efficiently like the nightmare matchup we’ve imagined since he was drafted 1^st overall, and he was rebounding… um… he got some rebounds!  Then the calf muscle strain robbed us of the Bargnani that we’d been waiting for, a player who was already garnering serious all-star consideration.  When he returned he was back to his old lethargic self, and Raptors fans around the world were left wondering what might have been….  This season, the hope is that he returns to the Andrea from those 13 games and not the player who continually makes me scream at my television.  The tools are there, they always have been.  The question is desire.  Amir Johnson must look at him with utter resentment for the gifts this man has essentially wasted to this point, while he hustles his ass off only to end up with 20 minutes per game.  Can Bargnani show the heart and determination to go out and take an all-star selection?  Will he finally live up to his draft position and the Dirk Nowitzki comparisons?  If he’s ever gonna do it, now is the time.

Kyle Lowry:

Kyle Lowry steps into the starting line-up and immediately assumes his role as the best point guard in Raptors history, actually usurping the same person in both instances.  Yes, he is not as polished as Jose offensively, but he can do things Jose cannot like drive the lane and you know, play defense.  He will likely have the most impact on whether the Raptors win or lose games this season, and as such it is the team record that will be the biggest determining factor in whether he makes the all-star team.  He’s earned consideration before, and unlike DeMar and Andrea he has no obvious holes in his game for him to easily improve upon.  He’s already an above average defender, shooter, ball-handler, passer, and he can take it to the rim to collapse the defense or finish in traffic.  However, while a fairly complete player, there is not much about his game that really jumps off the page.  For him, much like Steve Nash and his MVPs, it’s going to be the success of the team that earns him the accolades that he deserves.  If this team is above .500, Lowry will deserve an all-star nod.

 The 2013 NBA All-Star Team (East):

Likely Starting Line-Up

Guards: Dwyane Wade, Rajon Rondo/Deron Williams

Forwards: Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony (damn fan voting)

Centre: Andrew Bynum

Locks on the Bench

Guards: Rajon Rondo/Deron Williams

Forward/Centre: Chris Bosh

For the sake of discussion, let’s assume that one of the PF/C-types (like Bosh, Al Horford, Kevin Garnett, etc.) will make it in as the required backup “centre” so that we may just pick the best available from who’s left.  I’m not saying another centre won’t make it, I’m just saying that we need not pencil in every coach to vote for a true centre because they have to when they are allowed flexibility with all these PF/C players.  Some of them may, however, which could very well help a guy like Roy Hibbert make it in (spoiler alert).  Another assumption: there will be 3 more backup forwards/centres to be selected in addition to 2 more guards.  It’s likely how it will play out, although there is a chance there’s 4 extra forwards/centres or 3 extra guards.  There’s a lot of “ifs” at play here, so we’re gonna have to accept certain probabilities somewhere at this point.

Based on these assumptions, the remaining guard spots will be filled by 2 of either Joe Johnson, Monta Ellis, Kyle Lowry, Kyrie Irving, or John Wall.  Johnson is probably the most likely, in my opinion, as coaches have a history of voting players in based on their “lifetime achievement” (see: Tim Duncan, 2011 and Dirk Nowitzki, 2012).  While he could slip as he will now have to share the ball and the spotlight with Deron Williams, there’s just as much of a chance that Brooklyn will be good enough to have 2 all-stars as Milwaukee or Toronto being good enough to have 1.  This leaves 1 spot at guard and while Irving or Wall could explode and sneak in, my gut tells me it comes down to Ellis and Lowry.  Whoever’s team has the best record wins.  You’ll notice DeMar doesn’t make the cut, but he still has a chance at forward so let’s check it out.

With 3 selections left there’s a lot more uncertainty in who might make it.  Josh Smith is the most likely I think, as he’s deserved it for a few years and will get plenty more attention now that Johnson is gone.  That team is his now, and he, not Horford, will probably be Atlanta’s sole representation at the all-star game.  The Hawks probably won’t be good enough to have 2 all-stars unless they both play very, very well.  If Horford makes it, he’s probably taking a lot of touches away from Smith anyway, as well as his all-star bid.  So 1 spot is probably taken by Atlanta either way; moving on.  Next is Roy Hibbert.  We may not need a true centre, but the Pacers will probably deserve to have an all-star as arguably the 2^nd best regular season team in the Eastern Conference next year.  Hibbert is the most likely to make it and many coaches will vote for him just because they have to list a centre and Hibbert is the only pure centre worthy of votes.  The PF/C-types may end up splitting votes amongst themselves and small forwards and Hibbert will likely have the team success to sneak in, even if some of the PF/C-types have slightly better stats.

For the last spot, we have many to choose from.  Although not typically a strong regular season team lately, if Boston comes on strong and Garnett or Pierce plays well they could have 2 all-stars this year.  Both of their chances are hurt by the presence of each other and their need/ability to rest due to age and the increased depth at their positions on the roster.  Brook Lopez is very doubtful as he’s not even the 2^nd best player on his own team.  Danny Granger has a decent chance as Indiana will be very good, but his game has fallen off a bit lately and Hibbert is far more likely to represent that team.  They will be good enough to send 2 players to the big game, but only if they both really stand out and I doubt that’s going to happen.  Amare Stoudemire could make it, but he’s got to play a lot better than last season and that might be too much to expect from a player with his mileage and injury history.  I mentioned Horford before, and he and Smith could both potentially make it if that team plays really well.  And then there’s Bargnani.  I’ve already written at length about what he needs to do to have a chance, and if plays the way he’s capable of he certainly will warrant consideration.  Nobody on this list is untouchable, and if the team success is there he will likely deserve it as much as anyone else listed here.  He may lose out to Pierce or Garnett, especially with the “lifetime achievement” factor in voting, but he may not if those guys are rested throughout the season in preparation for the playoffs, or if their record doesn’t reflect the talent level on that team.  His presence is hurt by the potential of Lowry to make the team.  Not many 7^th or 8^th seeds have 2 all-stars and Lowry is more likely to make it, in my opinion, especially with the amount if competition Bargnani could potentially have.  If any of the aforementioned players has a strong year, aside from Lopez, how could anyone possibly justify sending Andrea as Toronto’s 2^nd all-star for a fringe playoff team over similarly talented players from much better teams?  He would have to really outperform them, but even then he may just hurt Lowry’s chances as whatever team success the Raptors have will be attributed to him.  Tough call, but I’d say if the Raptors are in the playoff hunt and exceeding expectations, Lowry will make the team and Bargnani will barely miss the cut, unless he improves upon even the legendary 13 game sample we saw from him at the beginning of last season.  As most of us are just hoping for him to match it, I don’t see that being very likely.

You’ll notice DeRozan wasn’t on this list either.  Now that I’ve gone through the competition, I just don’t see it happening.  The only way he makes it is if he drastically improves this season and supplants Lowry as our best player in the backcourt.  More likely though, he’ll fade more into the background with a scoring point guard like Lowry in the fold.  As is always the case with DeMar: maybe next year.

Thanks for reading.

There’s a special kind of pain experienced by Raptor fans. After more than a decade and a half the team has little more to show for their toil than a handful of playoff appearances and a pair of franchise players whose departures left the organization at a standstill. While it’s easy to wax poetic about how frustrating being a Raptor fan can be, one only has to look at other NBA teams to understand that things could be much worse.

The Orlando Magic have been perennial contenders in the Eastern Conference since they took Dwight Howard with the first pick in the 2004 draft, but in their current position Raptor fans can empathise. There are nine days until Otis Smith has to make a decision that will almost undoubtedly set the organization back a few years. Some hold out hope that Smith will be able to bring back a haul comparable to the one Masai Ujiri was able to get for Carmelo Anthony, a tall task with Otis Smith’s track record. I can’t help but draw the comparison between Otis Smith and Danny Ferry, and how they constructed teams around young franchise players and failed to surround them with the talent necessary to capture a title, or even convince the players to stay.

Switching to the game, the Raptors had a tall task taking on the Magic on the second night of a back to back. Amir was given the night off, and with Bargnani continuing his sideline modelling career the Raptors were forced to go at Dwight Howard undermanned. While I expected Toronto to come out a little sluggish after a hard fought win last night, they surprized with focus and aggression right from the tip. Aaron Gray was tasked with holding his own against Dwight Howard, and he answered the call commendably. He used his wide frame and high motor to bother Howard on both ends of the floor, but was hampered with foul trouble due to some questionable officiating (a theme for the game).

Ed Davis was given his eighth start of the season with Amir’s absence, and he looked to carry over his strong performance from last night’s game, with mixed results. Jose was unable to regain his pre-All-Star break form, which might affect his trade value, but more on that later. James Johnson put in another so-so performance that has me baffled as to how he projects going forward. Matt Devlin called DeRozan’s night “magnificent”, and while I wouldn’t be that complimentary, he was incredibly effective attacking the basket.

While the game was competitive throughout, Dwight Howard’s physical prowess set the tone. Even with Gray’s encouraging play coupled with Magloires dependable stoicism, Howard’s 36 and 13 was too much for the Raptors to overcome. I think Devlin unintentionally summarized what the Raptors were up against when Magloire entered the game and he commented “The Big Cat checks in to handle Superman”. The Raptors were outmatched, undermanned, but still somehow managed to put in a scrappy effort and almost won the game, pleasing tank nation while still giving the home fans a reason to show up.

Now to the Jose Calderon situation, which many RR readers have commented on, and I thought I’d throw in my two cents. When you look at successful franchises, no matter the sport, they tend manage personnel decisions without emotion. While this takes much of the perceived romanticism out of the player-organization relationship, it allows for teams to look after their own interests. While the needs and considerations of the player should be taken into account, they should be secondary. So when people accuse the Raptors front-office of being cold-hearted in their treatment Jose, I side with the front-office and applaud their efforts, despite the bad taste it leaves.

Ed’s Note: This is David Helm’s last casting call.

Big win for Toronto. They came back from a major deficit and were able to survive a stubborn counter attack and hold on for the victory. The MVP for Toronto this night had to be Josh Sanderson, who led the way with three goals and two assists. Wait a minute … I think I got my gamers mixed up there. This is supposed to be a recap of the Raptors vs. Nuggets tilt; not the rousing Rock vs. Knighthawks lacrosse game I saw when I switched on TSN2. Sorry for the mistake. Obviously I must have temporarily mixed up my channels. It would be laughable for a lacrosse game to bump a professional basketball game. Right? For a lacrosse match to bump a professional basketball game off the dial there would have to be such a dearth of enthusiasm for that NBA team, their ratings would have to be so pathetic, that subbing them for lacrosse action would seem like a plausible scenario. Oh wait…

Just as the Rock were popping champagne back at the ACC, TSN2 switched over to the Raptors game already in progress. The collective fan base were robbed of precious minutes of promising Raptor action, with the team taking the momentum from that inspiring performance in Phoenix and translating it into an eight point lead early in the first quarter. Kleiza was already on the bench at that point but Devlin assured us he was in the starting lineup. Going 0-4 to start the game seems to explain the quick hook. Despite having lost Felton due to injury, and three of their main rotation players from last year to overseas defections, Denver came ready to play. In case you somehow managed to miss it, Bargnani is out indefinitely with another calf injury, and his absence from this game once again completely derailed the Raptors. With a little under four minutes to go in the first quarter Denver was cruising with the score at 14-2. With the help of their bench (Bayless and Barbosa) the Raptors were able to make it somewhat respectable by the end the first, 28-12. Believe me, it could have been much, much worse. Before the buzzer sounded, Andre Miller heaved a shot from three quarters court and made it. I’m betting that’s when probably a lot of folks started changing channels, and for those who didn’t, it was about to get plenty worse.

With the game already well in hand, Denver seemed content to watch the Bayless and Barbosa show, with the former taking open jumpers when they presented themselves, and Barbosa going one on five, which he is prone to do. At one point in the second quarter, our two combo guards off the bench had combined for 17 of the Raptors 21 points. They seemed to be the only players in a Toronto uniform who seemed mildly interested in contributing, and if it wasn’t for their offensive efforts, this game would have turned from ugly to just plain hideous. Coming off that game in Phoenix that had me questioning why I’d written him off so quickly, Kleiza managed just two points and was constantly targeted as a defensive liability. Denver was clinical in dissecting Toronto’s defense. They played unselfishly, always looking for the open man, and were able to score efficiently no matter what defensive scheme Casey threw at them. The TV cameras managed to find some Toronto fans in the crowd, looking utterly miserable, and who can blame them. At the half the Raptors were down 48-27, and it seemed like the team was headed toward a loss for the ages.

But once the third quarter got rolling, a Raptors starter decided maybe he would get rolling too. James Johnson, after already contributing solid defense in the first half, cranked up his offense; hitting jump shots, driving to the bucket, and adding a ferocious put-back dunk. Bayless and Barbosa continued their solid production and all that, coupled with some sloppy play by the usually crisp Nuggets, somehow whittled the Denver lead to 12 points at the end of the third.

The Raptors took the momentum into the fourth, and with a three-headed attack — Bayless, Barbosa and some effective picks by Jamal Magloire (most of which should have been called fouls) — the Raptors somehow cut the lead to six. I cannot describe to you the disbelief with which I met this wonder. After watching painfully as the Raptors wandered aimlessly on offense for the majority of the game, I found them right in the thick of it with one of the best teams in the NBA. Finally, a game worth watching. Until all of the sudden, it wasn’t. Bayless gets pulled for Jose, who had another uncharacteristically bad game; James Johnson gets pulled for Butler — need I say more? — and Barbosa gets pulled for DeMar. Mr. Fourth Quarter decided that since he’d already taken the first part of the game off (DeMar was 0-10 at one point in the third), there wasn’t much point in giving an effort when the game was on the line. He ended with 8 points on 3-15 shooting. Sure he had a couple of baskets, but DeMar seemed so timid at being the first option that even Kleiza had plays run for him in the fourth. Swapping Barbosa for DeMar effectively killed the Raptors hopes of winning this game, which I suppose is a good thing if you’re one of those Big Picture types firmly entrenched in the tank camp.

The game came to a puzzling conclusion when Al Harrington took issue with Kleiza’s foul at the 30 second mark (it seemed harmless enough) and began to lose his collective shit. His incessant verbal barrage gave Kleiza no other choice but to shove him, and everyone jumped up, perhaps anticipating they might get their money’s worth after all, by way of a good-old bench clearing brawl. But even there, disappointment. Cooler heads prevailed, the refs doled out some techs, everyone was subjected to a few more minutes of boredom, and the Nuggets won by 15.

A few quick notes: First of all, I really question Casey’s decision to nail Amir to the bench in favor of Gray. Is Amir, one of the only Raptors who consistently goes out and gives every ounce of effort at his disposal, really the Raptor you want to make an example of? Second, I’m beginning to hope that the Raptors lose by 40 to 50 points real soon, which is completely plausible, especially with Bargnani out for aswhile. These 10 to 20 point losses are just way too misleading. The Raptors are giving just enough effort in these losses to seem respectable, and in the end they are doing themselves (and their fans) a disservice. A true blowout loss might force the organization to make a move, and it’s becoming increasingly clear that the Raptors are in need of one. Even with the shortened season, I can’t take too many more of these games. Go Rock.

Ed’s Note: David Helm again.

Coming off a 23 shellacking at the hands of the Celtics, Portland had me scared. A franchise seemingly plagued by bad luck, the Blazers had shrugged off the ongoing Greg Oden fiasco and the loss of Brandon Roy to retirement as if they were minor inconveniences and were playing inspired basketball. In spite of my doubts, however, those wizards over at TSN2 pulled me right back in with a hope filled opening clip to the broadcast, and I found myself believing that things would be different tonight. The Raptors got off to a quick four point lead with James Johnson looking like a man possessed, before the Blazers woke up and put the Raptors in their place. What followed was one of the most uninspired 24 minutes of basketball I have ever seen the Toronto Raptors play.

Lacking a player who can create his own shot off the dribble, or even a go-to offensive weapon, Portland was all too happy to allow the Raptors to take contested jump shots for the rest of the quarter and for the majority of their first quarter possessions, and Toronto obliged (Derozan in particular). While the Raptors were busy throwing up contested bricks, the Blazers set the tone for the rest of the game by running an efficient half-court offense. Amir looked overmatched by Aldridge’s physical prowess and overall superior talent, and the Raptors defensive schemes were unable to make up for it. The easy scapegoat for the game would be Amir, since he played one of his worst games in recent memory, but it is clear he is injured and in need of some rest. The only bright spot for the Raptors in the 1st was their 10 fast break points, which would be quite promising if they had been able to muster more than 4 points from their half-court offense. The quarter ended with a potentially injured Aldridge and the Raps down by 13; a scary number considering the Blazers played fairly mediocre basketball.

The second quarter gave the Raptors the opportunity to sink to even lower depths. After quickly recovering from his strained lower back, Aldridge returned and continued to dominate the Raptors by either converting easy buckets or distributing the ball to wide open teammates when the Raptors collapsed on him. With the lead bloated to 21 points, a chorus of boos rain down from the fans after yet another ugly jump shot (part of a 1-10 stretch) by king Rasual. Perhaps motivated by embarrassment, the Raptors managed to cut the lead to 15 by the end of the second.

If you were lucky enough not to see the game, you might be led to believe that this wasn’t a disgusting first half display by the Raptors, but I can assure you, the numbers lie.
After what was almost certainly an expletive filled halftime speech by Coach Casey, the Raptors had a little life in them and made a game of it. The Raptors squad that came out bore no resemblance to the one that put up such a meager effort in the first half. They utilized their zone defense to momentarily stagnate the Blazers offense, and DeMar seemed to remember that he’s supposed to be second best player in the organization and went back to his strengths. Finally abandoning contested jump shots, the Raptors actually attempted to go inside and get easy buckets. They cut the lead to single digits and were within a few solid possessions of competing for a victory before this magical stretch of effort and efficient play, that lasted about eight minutes, came to an end. The Blazers broke down the zone and the Raptors returned to lazily taking jump shots. Even after scoring 14 points in the quarter with strong moves to the bucket, DeMar drifted back into the bad habits he’s picked up this season that have made him an ineffective player.

The fourth quarter went like clockwork. The Blazers were never legitimately threatened by the Raptors, maintaining a comfortable double digit cushion, and the Raptors allowed them to coast to an easy victory without putting up a fuss. Aldridge finished with 33 and 23, a monster line that he made look easy. A ten point loss to a good Western Conference team is probably won’t raise eyebrows anytime soon, but I think it should. As with all Raptor fans, I’ve gotten accustomed to the lackluster efforts, but I don’t think it’s too much to ask for a better performance than the one they gave tonight, especially coming off the Celtics game and especially at home.

This game was painful enough to watch on T.V., I can’t even imagine what kind of torture it must have been to be in the building and actually pay to watch that kind of a performance. We all know that the Raptors have a deficiency in talent against almost any opponent they come up against (especially with Andrea out of the lineup), but that kind of excuse wore out long ago.
I’ve always been a big DeMar Derozan and Ed Davis fan, but seeing them (along with the entire Raptors squad) get completely outhustled and outclassed by James Johnson, a guy who couldn’t even crack the rotation in Chicago makes you wonder what kind of value these players really have. That isn’t a slight on Johnson either; he is simply a player who is exceeding expectations when given the opportunity, while the young cornerstones of our franchise have wilted this season when given the spotlight. There are real questions about the direction of this franchise, and a good draft pick and a young stud in Europe aren’t cure-alls. I don’t want to be all doom and gloom, but these past two games have left me with a really bad taste in my mouth.
Rebuilding or not, if things remain this bleak, something has to change.

Ed’s Note: David Helm continues his RR tryouts.

Ed’s Note: This was written by RR Forum member David Helm (deevad)

I want to defend Linas Kleiza. I want to convince myself that the advancements in micro-fracture surgery in the past twenty years vastly improve the chances he’ll avoid becoming another Penny Hardaway and make a full recovery. Once he’s back in playing shape, he’ll leapfrog the Raptors paper-thin small forward depth chart, pushing Rasual Butler deep into the bench where he belongs. With knee woes finally behind him, Kleiza will find his shooting touch that made him a reliable offensive threat for the Nuggets. Casey will transform Klieza’s defensive game, highlighting his strengths (strength, toughness) while minimizing his weaknesses (lateral quickness, speed). Talk of how his bloated contract needs to be amnestied will hushed as he plays his way to becoming a solid contributor to the Raptors building process.

Unfortunately, for all involved, this won’t happen. Pre-injury, during the 2010-11 season, Kleiza’s performance was already slipping. Despite being given the opportunity to start over half the games he played in, he saw a significant dip in his three point percentage, and a rise in his turnover rate. Coupled with his suffering offensive output, the thirty-nine games he played that season made it apparent that he was a man without a position on the defensive end. He lacked the mobility to stay with athletic threes and was overpowered by physical fours. Without the motor or hustle to compensate for his defensive physical shortcomings, he was a major liability on the floor. His rebounding numbers have never been noteworthy throughout his NBA career, and it’s farfetched to think they would improve after a major injury.

The addition of Casey’s dedication to defence and rebounding makes Klieza’s return to the starting line-up, or even rotation, more unlikely. Having two of your three frontcourt players lacking plus defensive and rebounding capabilities is counter-intuitive to the system Casey is trying to instil. A player in possession of a skill set that is a questionable match for our current Raptors squad, with a cap hit of roughly five million dollars, coming off a surgery that has effectively ended or hampered the careers of dozens of NBA players, simply does not make sense for the Toronto Raptors. The argument had by Raptors fans pre-season was deciding who should be amnestied; Jose Calderon or Linas Kleiza. Despite being older, providing twice the cap hit, and suffering from a slew of injuries the past couple seasons, Jose is playing his way out of that discussion.

Sometime in the near future, Linas Kleiza will return to being an active player for the Raptors. He will play. You will be disappointed. With depth always being important, especially in a lockout shortened season, he’ll stick around on the bench for the year, sometimes wearing a uniform, sometimes sporting a suit. He’ll be amnestied in the offseason, and we can then turn our attention to the unbridled fear that will consume Raptor fans once Colangelo hits the free agent market with cap space. The Raptors will draft a small forward, or perhaps throw some money at Wilson Chandler or Nicolas Batum. Kleiza will go to another team and hopefully turn into a solid eighth man, which is probably what he was all along. I want to defend Linas Kleiza; I just don’t see the point.

The Raptors’ franchise (and max contract) player
By: Tom Liston

Free agency 2010 talk drives me crazy. I believe Chris Bosh hasn’t made up his mind. How can he? He doesn’t know how this team will finish. Nor does he know what teams will have cap room and what their plans are. However, more frustrating are the comments I’ve read recently about him not being worth a maximum contract. Frankly, I was shocked, but it was worth “refreshing” my own thoughts on the topic so I did a bit more research and concluded that:

Chris Bosh is absolutely a max-contract/franchise player.

There are approximately 30 players in and around that “max” contract type number (http://hoopshype.com/salaries.htm). Some of these players have been quite overpaid in hindsight (e.g. Jermaine O’Neal) and others are due for large raises. And not every team will be able to afford to pay a maximum contact. So, let’s say that there are a solid 20 players that can be considered franchise/max players. In that context, let’s see where Mr. Bosh is currently for the 2009-10 season:

Sources: NBA.com and Basketball-reference.com / For win shares calculation / PER rankings

Mr. Bosh is top 10 in every major “overall” efficiency ranking. While PER, NBA Efficiency, Win Shares and Adjusted +/- all have drawbacks (there simply isn’t a “holy grail” of overall efficiency), the data is telling.

Besides the obvious positives from the scoring and overall rebounding numbers Bosh puts up, there are a two metrics that jump out to me: free throws attempted and offensive rebounds. These are two metrics which have an understated impact on winning games. Bosh being number 1 in free throw attempts is huge. It largely means he’s getting a key opposing big in foul trouble (and scoring points at the same time). This usually leads to easier attempts by his teammates as it often “opens” up the lane due to the lack of presence of the opponent’s key big. Offensive rebounds is another statistic that may not be fully appreciated. Not only did you “save” a possession, but you likely were able to put up a highly efficient shot. Ranking 5^th (per game) in the league is impressive.

So you ask, who shows up on the top of Win Shares, PER, and Adjusted +/- rankings?

Well, maybe you didn’t, but it’s: LeBron James, Dirk Nowitzki, Carmelo Anthony, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard and Steve Nash… oh and some guy named Christopher Wesson Bosh. And only four of them (yes, Mr. Bosh included) were on top of all three categories) It’s difficult to say if Mr. Bosh continues on this pace (see Blake Murphy’s great post for the data from last year), but there is little doubt in my mind he’s one of the premier players in the game today and certainly a maximum contract or “franchise” player.

“But he hasn’t taken his team to the promised land” one may argue. I’ll counter that view by saying you need another star (or “near-star”) and key role players to do this. Shaq had Kobe, Kobe had Shaq, Bird had McHale/Parrish/DJ, Magic had Kareem, Jordan had Pippen, Duncan had Ginobilli/Parker, etc. Bosh has yet to receive this quality support.

“But his defense isn’t up to par”. Two things: i) his Adjusted +/- partly accounts for this and his number is great ii) you tend to have play help D much more often when your 4 teammates are generally very poor defenders. This can exaggerate (negatively) your own performance.

Statistics sometimes “lie”. But watching many of the games this year, you see Bosh dig deep to pull games out. He is not a “create-my-own-shot-with-5-seconds” left type of player. No centre or power forward is. But he helps his team win games – throughout the game – and does it extremely well.

Chris Bosh is a special player. A franchise player. A maximum contract player. And a player that I want in a Raptors uniform for a long time.