Raptors Republic proudly conclude our pre-draft coverage with Big Board 3.0, final thoughts and insights heading into tonight.

If all we are hearing is true and there are no smokescreens running here, the Raptors are looking at (in order)- Knight, Kanter, Biyombo, Valenciunas . This means that Vesely, Leonard, and Kemba have all fallen out of favour. Vesely apparently has a promise from Washington at #6 (this means that Washington doesn’t expect Kanter to be there and they are in a position to trade up to get him). The Raptors should be happy with any of the four but in order of preference:

Brandon Knight:

• If Utah picks Kanter at #3 or Minny picks Kanter at 2 and Knight falls to #5 it’s a done deal. The Raptors get their point guard of the future and the cornerstone of the franchise to pair with DeRozan, Davis, and Bargnani moving forward.
• Drafting Knight will NOT result in Calderon being dealt, but instead in Bayless being the guy on the block.
• GRADE: A+. This is the best case scenario and a homerun for the staff who probably would have picked Knight with any pick other than the #1 overall pick in this draft and now get him at #5 (after falling back in the lottery) and with that save a couple million dollars against the cap.

Enes Kanter:

• In his own words, he’d like to come to Toronto and if he does he plans on playing the 5 and Andrea playing the 4 beside him.
• Kanter has too much talent for the Raptors to pass on. As a 60-loss team, they have to draft the best available talent, and if by any combination Kanter is there at #5, the Raptors will take him.
• Drafting Kanter will NOT result in Bargnani being dealt, but instead in Ed Davis being the guy on the block.
• GRADE: A+. In a draft devoid of All-Star talent, Kanter still may be the most talented player in NYC tonight. The Raptors have continually under Colangelo draft the guy with the most talent, regardless of fit, media ideas, or fan fare. One could argue that Bargnani, DeRozan, and Davis have been top 3 talent in each of their respective drafts (whether or not they can live up to that is still debatable). Kanter, all red flags aside is definitely top-three talent in just about any draft, and if you can get him at #5 that is pretty impressive.

Bismack Biyombo:

• If the draft plays out Irving, Williams, Knight and Kanter, then look for the Raptors to take Biyombo at #5.
• Biymobo worked out for the Raptors on Monday. Casey was there. And he was impressive.
• If they can make a play to trade down to say #8 Detroit and pick up another asset (maybe a future pick and their own second rounder back, or a player like Stuckey) or make a move to send #5 to Charlotte for 2 of their 3 first rounders this year, then look for them to do so.
• Colangelo would prefer to pick Biyombo lower, pay less money for the pick, and grab some assets in the process. But make no mistake, Colangelo has no problem taking him at #5.
• The medical red flag issues that came out today about Biyombo are not legit and appear to be a smokescreen out there by a hopeful team in the teens trying to get some GMS to rethink taking him in early lottery.
• GRADE: A. This pick is not much about what Biymobo does, but about how much better he immediately makes Bargnani, Calderon, and the Raptors team defense. While his offense is very raw, it’s hard to argue with his energy, toughness, athleticism, and defensive capabilities are not going to have an immediate impact. This is a great pick for the Raptors, even at #5.

Jonas Valanciunas:

• How is this for an unpredictable draft, Valanciunas is being considered seriously by every team starting at Utah at #3 all the way to Milwaukee at #10.
• Not only that, all the rumours you are hearing about the Spurs shopping Parker, OKC shopping Maynor are all based on the overwhelming desire by just about every team in the draft to get their hands on Valanciunas.
• The fear has always been that his buyout is high and that he wouldn’t come to the NBA next year, and there is some truth to that, but not much.
• As reported here last week, the buyout is not that bad. Valanciunas himself told RR’s good friend, Ryan Feldman @thehoopsreport last night that the buyout was 2.5 million and that he planned on staying in Europe next season. But, that’s because there is a lockout looming, and it also sounds like his agent is trying to get his guy into a very specific spot.
• $2.5 million is not a giant buyout. NBA teams are allowed to pay up to $500,000 and as a top five pick he’ll make a guaranteed 3.5 million plus for the next 4 seasons. Now I’m not Tom Liston, but the numbers here suggest he’d be crazy to turn down that kind of money.
• If the right team picks him, he’ll be in the NBA next season. Having said that, I think he’s gone before #5. Cleveland at 4 seems like the best fit. But with picks 1, 2 and 3 still all up in the air, no one can tell.
• If he is on the board, this is also a great space for the Raptors to trade the #5 pick. They could easily grab a veteran starter and a pick for the #5 if Valanciunas is still on the board. Again, there are a lot of suitors here.
• GRADE: A. Raptors fans won’t like this, but drafting Valanciunas and partnering him next to Bargnani makes logical sense. It’s hard to argue with drafting a legitimate 7 footer at the #5 spot. Think back to the Bosh/LeBron/Wade draft. The Clippers may not have lucked out (in that they were unable to land one of the monster talents in the draft), but they did land Chris Kaman with #5 and there isn’t anything wrong with that.

Need a Rapcast fix? Check out my interview on TSN Radio yesterday on the Bryan Hayes Show:

You can also download the file.

Be sure to come chat ball tonight at the RR Draft Party at St. Louis Bar & Grill (Yonge/Wellesley), where you could have your food and drink covered by answering a simple question.

Hope you have enjoyed all the draft coverage this spring. See you tonight.

Big Board 1.0 covered the tiers. Today Tim Chisholm from TSN.ca joins me to help slot players into those tiers as we discuss some of the guys mentioned in his latest column. Come the fifth pick and a point guard on the board, the debate will surely come down to Kemba Walker versus Brandon Knight. We cover the strengths and weaknesses of both players, and ask the question that regardless of their NBA projection, which one is a better fit for the Raptors, and which suits DeMar DeRozan as a sidekick. As we find out, the player with the higher upside may not be the best pick for the Raptors given their circumstance and the short nature of Colangelo’s contract.

The length of Colangelo’s contract comes up again when discussing drafting prospects (with buyout clauses!) such as Jonas Valanciunas. Tim goes over the situation with Valanciunas and why the Raptors might want to avoid a player who, despite having a desirable work-ethic and inside presence, hasn’t wowed in his domestic league. The alternative of Kawhi Leonard is analyzed but caution to the wind is thrown as we draw parallels with players such as Sonny Weems and Joey Graham. The selection is looked at in the context of the Raptors’ severe need for three-point shooting.

The curious case of Bismack Biyombo is covered with a comparison drawn to Serge Ibaka, and the question is asked: If Biyombo turned out to be as good as Serge Ibaka, would he be worth the fifth pick? The consensus appears to be that the ROI on a pick this high needs to be something better, weak draft or not.

Grab the iTunes feed or the plain old feed. You can also download the file (18:42, 19MB). Or just listen below:

Welcome to the Raptors-centric Big Board, today’s post focuses on the significance of tiers when drafting.

Less than 24 hours after receiving the news that he had dropped to 5th spot in the draft, GM Bryan Colangelo confirmed that there were 7 or 8 players that the Raptors had their eyes on. Below is a list of the tiers those players may fall into.

This year we’ve decided to shake it up a bit and we will be regularly updating the big board with commentary and additional information from several key industry insiders. But to start, here’s the list of who to keep an eye on, aka, The Big Board, and this year it is in tiers.

Here is how the tier system works. Just about every team in the NBA not named Minnesota, now widely recognizes that the best way to draft is to use the tier system. In doing so, you eliminate the age old debate of do I draft for need or do I take the best player available? According to the tier system, you rank players in terms of their skill sets into categories like, for example, those listed below. Once you have all the players in the draft slotted into tiers, when it’s your turn to draft you always draft from the highest tier remaining. So, even if the fans of the Raptors might shoot themselves in the head if the Raptors were to draft Kanter (what’s this, he’s rejected us?), if you have him in tier 3, and he is the only guy in tier 3 available when its your team’s turn to pick, you draft him.

In this light, you are always drafting the best player available. But where the tier system really helps teams to make a smart choice, and in a very large way saves GMs from what was once called “Knighting” or “Grunwlading” or even “McHaleing” but is now affectionately referred to as “ Kahning”- that is taking a guy who either fits a need or who plainly doesn’t, is that in the tier system when you have two or more players on the board in the same tier when it is your teams turn to pick, you pick the player who more clearly fits a need of the team. So, if we look back a couple of years to the last time the Raps picked in the top 5, the Bargnani draft – if the Raps had been using the tier system, then by all accounts there was no real separation between Bargnani, Aldridge, Roy, Gay, and Ty Thomas for the #1 pick. And since the Raps already had a power forward as part of their core, they would have selected from either Roy or Gay with the #1 pick.

Here are the tiers as we see them:

Tier 1: Franchise player/Can’t miss superstar: these are guys that are consensus #1’s like Lebron, Tim Duncan, Blake Griffin, and John Wall. Rarely, but on occasion you can have more than 1 of these guys in the same draft – think back to Lebron and Carmelo! However, more often than not, if you are the Raptors and have a high pick, you get a draft that doesn’t even have one of these – like this year’s draft for example.

Tier 2: Potential Superstar and perennial All-Star: these are the next group of players, say a Derek Rose, Kevin Durant, or Dwight Howard. Guys who have all the tools to be a superstar, and who will likely be an All-Star in the league but who come into the league with some question marks. One of the reason why this year’s draft is considered so weak is that there is no one who falls into this tier either. These are top 5 picks in a good draft.

Tier 3: NBA Starter and with all star potential: These guys will come in right away and help your team. They are mostly second option guys, who occasional turn out to be franchise players- but more often than not, when, in a good draft they go in the bottom half of the top ten, but in this years draft we are talking about them as if they are the cream of the crop. This year’s draft has three players that most scouts agree upon as belonging in this category: Irving, Williams, and Kanter- none of whom will be available when the Raptors pick at #5. However, I would also add another 2 names to this list: Brandon Knight, Jan Vesley. Both these players are likely to be available when the Raptors pick, and i would imagine they are at the top of Colangelo’s list of guys to watch film of.

Tier 4: NBA Starter with some upside: here we have guys who we know are going to be in the league and contribute on a team as the third scoring option, with strong leadership capabilities, or as a defensive specialist, etc. In a strong draft, you would start hitting this point, the fourth tier starts around pick 10 and would find a player in the bottom end of the lottery who could still come in and help you team immediately with some upside, but would not be considered a top five player at his position any time in the near future.

Tier 5: NBA Rotational Player with starter possibility: These are the guys who round out the 20s and close out the first round. James Johnson is a good example of this type of player and maybe this is why Colangelo didn’t mind giving up his pick from Miami in this draft for Johnson. I still think that was a bad trade and would rather have Honeycutt, Singler, or Nolan Smith, but hey, at this point you aren’t really expecting the guy you draft at 27 to actually do anything more than Jerome Moiso (what Sam Mitchell would call taking up air at the end of the bench ).

Tier ***: Potential Superstar but possible/likely bust – aka a long shot: This is the tier that doesn’t actually exist but should. You see, every year teams talk themselves into a project. A guy explodes in the tournament, or measures an 11 foot wingspan at the combine, or scores 118 points at the Nike Hoop Summit and all of a sudden he is somehow a better choice than a player scouts have watched develop since the age of 7. GMs often fall in love with guys like this and slot them to be higher than they should be on the off chance that their guy is actually Serge Ibaka and not Darko Milicic. If I was a GM, I would have a separate tier for these guys, just to remind me that they are not in fact as “real” as they appear. This doesn’t mean I would refuse to draft them. I mean, I would suggest that Bismack Biyombo belongs in this category this year. Now when the Raps pick at 5, if no one from tier 3 remains, I might consider drafting Biyombo since what you get from a tier 4 guy is really nothing special.

So for the Raptors, assuming they stay at #5, and assuming that Kanter, Williams, and Irving go in the top 4 picks, the 7 or 8 guys that Colangelo has his eyes on and the tiers that they are slotted into are…well, we’ll return with Big Board 2.0 for that story. Until then, I’m sure you’ll slot those guys into the tiers mentioned above, and maybe add some more of your own.