How does Lowry rank with other free agent point guards?

So we pooched our Fields/Nash analysis. It did end up in a situation where New York could, in theory, still obtain Nash, but it required Phoenix to take on a lot of parts (and NY having to give up Shumpert). Almost media outlets (as well as myself), didn’t fully consider (although our team did) the Lakers TPE – largely as the Lakers would have already over $70 million in salaries committed for next year to five players, two being World Peace and Blake. It completely makes sense for Nash given his “criteria”, but the Lakers will have to be shrewd to round out their roster.

More importantly, it meant the Raptors rapidly moved towards “Plan B”. And, in some respects, its a much better one.

The following charts compare six key free agent point guards. The first section is based on “per 36 minutes” numbers while the second section is “advanced” metrics (click on image for full view).

Source: basketball-reference.com

My original post was going to be why I believe Lowry would be a *much* better addition then Dragic. Lowry matches Dragic in most metrics and is a much better rebounder and gets to the line much more. Lowry is a steal compared to Dragic’s $8.5 million average salary over 4 years. Houston was wise to pass on Dragic in favour of Lin’s $7.2 million average salary over 4 years.

In terms on adjusted +/-, Lowry also screens very well:

Source: basketballvalue.com

Goran Dragic’s adjusted +/- is more mixed and it appears he is as good of a defender.

And what about his numbers versus a 25 year old Nash?

Source: basketball-reference.com

Kyle Lowry may be the steal of the free agent class offseason.

Questions? There is a dedicated to “Statophile Q&A” forum thread here . If you prefer to send questions privately, you’re welcome to email me at tomliston [at] gmail [dot] com or find me on Twitter (@Liston).

Addendum (7/6/2012 8am): Here’s a link comparing Lowry and Jerryd Bayless. Many similar numbers.

Sigh…

I don’t have time for a full post but wanted to spread the news here. According to multiple sources, including Woj and Stein and his agent, Steve Nash has agreed to a 3yr/25M extension, to be sign-and-traded to the Lakers. The Suns will receive $3M cash, 2013 & 2015 1st round picks, a pair of 2nd rounders, and Nash will fit into the Lamar Odom trade exception.

Nash’s agent says Nash was deciding in earnest between NY/TO until the Lakers and Kobe made a late push.

Sorry this is so brief/thin/empty but this is all the time I have this evening and I wanted us to have something up.

And please, no Nash hate…sounds like he was legitimately considering T.O., but Lakers can offer strong financial package, better chance at competing, and proximity to his children in Phoenix. No hate, no vitriol…it sucks for us, but it’s a completely understandable decision on his part.

Your move, BC.

$19M buys mad fly suits, yo.

So…Landry Fields for 3 years and $19M.

My initial reaction is that, in annual terms, it’s an overpay. But obviously, there are a lot of specific and extenuating circumstances surrounding the signing, and that complicates the analysis.

Further complicating the analysis is that I keep finding conflicting defensive metrics when trying to see if Fields’ defense via the eye test (he seems to be a decent man defender and even better as a team defender thanks to his high hoops-IQ and effort level) matches his numbers (it does for Adjusted +/-, but the limited Synergy Sports data I could access rates him poorly on a per-play basis).

So, with many factors affecting the analysis in all directions, let’s take a look, point by point, at the different aspects surrounding this deal.

These Contracts Are Bad
I’m not actually going to do this, but if you were to take all of the contracts in the NBA over the past decade, rank them highest to lowest in terms of yearly salary, and then chart some metric like WPA/$ or EWA/$ my guess is that you’d see a U-ish shape, whereby the best value comes at either end of the x-axis. That is, your best value is going to be with small (rookie, usually) contracts, or max contracts (with some exceptions, obviously). As Henry Abbott (and many others) have pointed out recently, it’s deals that are greater than the Mid-Level Exception (~$5M) and less than the near-max (say ~$14M) that tend to have the worst returns on a per-dollar basis. Thus, at $6.3M/yr, Fields comfortably falls in this danger zone of overpayment.

But, again, this is in the aggregate, and we can’t necessarily tag Fields as a bad deal just because others like him have underperformed similar deals.

This Contract, in Particular
$6.3M/yr is a big figure, but the risk is mitigated partially by avoiding a fourth year on the deal. Three years is an eternity in NBA terms, though, so it’s not a no- or even low-risk proposition. It’s tough to tell, based on varying metrics, if Fields is worth the money, but if we assume the generally accepted $2.5M cost per win, we would need Fields to produce approximately 2.5 wins above replacement per season to justify the cost. Based on Basketball Reference’s Win Share metric, Fields was worth 5.3 and 3.4 wins the past two years, while Hollinger’s EWA sees him as 3.4 and 1.2. I prefer BR’s method here because it includes some measure of defense (offensive and defensive rating are included), while Hollinger’s is purely offense.

So, even if Fields performed at his sophomore level (2011-12), which was well below his rookie baseline, he’d be “earning” his contract strictly in terms of $/win. This assumes he could maintain 30MPG on this roster, that he’d remain relatively healthy, and a few other assumptions, but since most seem to think The Real Landry Fields is somewhere between 2010-11 and 2011-12, a reasonable expectation might be a 4-win player.

Fields on the Raptors
Some have suggested that the large drop in Fields’ numbers last year were due to the shift in Knicks offensive philosophy from a D’Antoni-style, PG-oriented, pick-and-roll offense to an iso-heavy one with Carmelo Anthony eating up possessions like Boris Diaw at a wine-and-cheese event. This, people say, explains his precipitous drop in three-point shooting from 39% to 25%. After all, the Knicks had the 9th-lowest percentage of field goals assisted on in the NBA last year, so it’s possible that even though Fields’ usage rate increased, he had easy shots created for him far less often. This could be a criticism, but if we expect Jose Calderon or Steve Nash to be at the helm, it’s not really a big deal as Toronto and Phoenix were both top-11 in team assist rate.

But does the narrative make sense? After all, Steve Novak went gangbusters from downtown with Jeremy Lin at the helm. At the same time, the Knicks as a team fell from a 37% 3FG team to a 34% one, so maybe there’s something to it (or maybe they just lost three point shooters?). From an Xs and Os standpoint, a more motion-oriented offense should create more open opportunities by forcing defenses to rotate more, thus creating more open looks on the perimeter. However, an iso-heavy offense, if it involves good players, should force double-teams and open up drive-and-kick opportunities (for example, Atlanta was a top-5 3FG team in 2010-11′s ISO-Joe offense). In general, I’d say three point shooters should and will thrive more in a pick-and-roll style offense, but it’s not an extreme enough effect to explain such a huge drop in 3FG%.

What is troubling is that Fields also saw his FT% drop from 77% to 56%, seeing his TS% drop from 60% to 51%, a massive dip that, along with his dip in rebounding rate (more on that in a second), accounted for his entire PER drop from 13.5 to 12.1. Fields is probably more skilled as a shooter than his 52/26/56 (2FG%/3FG%/FT%, not FG/3FG/FT) from last year suggests, it also seems that his 2010-11 split of 56/39/77 may have been a bit of an abberation, as well. Maybe in an offense that fits him better, and with a clean bill of health, we can expect something in the 52/35/70 range, which would be acceptable for the role we expect him to play.

Defensively, Fields’ value will depend almost entirely on how well he (or DeMar) can adapt to playing the SF position. Below I’ve made a simple chart of every Raptor and their offensive and defensiver PER at each position last year, as well as (roughly) how many minutes that sample is derived from (I just multiplied 82games’s Minutes % by 3168, which is 48min x 66 games). Here we see that Fields certainly played the SF spot a fair amount, and it’s certainly possible that, at 6’7″, the Raptors have signed him as a Small Forward rather than a 2-guard. Then again, Dwayne Casey indicated his plan is to play a beefed-up DeMar at the three more, so it’s possible with those two and Terrence Ross we’ll be seeing more of a “2-wing” roster alignment rather than a typical SG-SF alignment. Regardless, here is the chart. (By the way, I could have used Off/Def rating as opponent PER isn’t necessarily a ‘fair’ way of assigning defensive value, but it’s what I went with. I also removed any samples smaller than 100 minutes, as 82Games.com has some curious position assigning in some cases.)

A final note on Fields is that he has a reputation as a strong rebounding guard. At 6’7″, much of this advantage may come from his size for the position, and it would be less of an impact at the three. To wit, his 8.5% rebound rate last year ranked 8th among all 2-guards (in his rookie year, his 11.7% rate ranked second), but would have been tied with Rasual Butler’s Corpse for 35th among small forwards. For comparison, DeMar’s 5.6% rate was 51st among shooting guards and would have been 2nd-last to just James Jones among threes. I should point out that these stats simply can’t be transferred as is, as a change in position would lead to more/different rebounding opportunities, but I just wanted to illustrate that Fields’ reputation as a strong rebounder can only be assumed if he remains a two.

So…in general, Fields is a good, not great, player, who is probably a better fit with the Raptors’ current incarnation than the Knicks’. We can be guardedly hopeful for a return to his 2010-11 numbers, though a midway point between his two seasons is more realistic, which, it turns out, would make his $6.3M/yr salary a slight value based on Win Shares.

Steve Nash Tactic
Of course, all of this analysis has assumed that the Fields signing exists in a vaccuum, which it does not. It is a guerilla tactic against the New York Knicks, or so it seems. You see, the Knicks were working on a sign-and-trade deal for Steve Nash with Phoenix, and Fields was one of the assets the Suns were hoping to get in return. By signing him, the Raptors make it impossible for the Knicks to sign-and-trade him to Phoenix (they can match the offer, but he can’t be dealt in that case), unless of course Fields backs out before signings can become official on July 11. This isn’t a silly consideration, however, as it’s possible the Suns value Fields at more than a 3yr/19M deal and could therefore entice him to agree to a sign-and-trade, either by offering more money up front (the Knicks own his Bird Rights and therefore aren’t subject to the Gilbert Arenas Provision the Raptors were, capping his year 1 and 2 earnings at the Mid Level amount), more money overall, or by offering a guaranteed fourth year, say a 4yr/28M kind of contract. It remains to be seen if Fields would do this, and by all accounts he is a “good guy,” but good guys have done worse for less (see: Walter White).

So, yes, this impedes the Knicks’ ability to sign-and-trade for Nash, leaving their cupboard of assets very bare to entice the Suns. However, like when Bosh left here and LeBron left Cleveland, the Suns may be willing to facilitate for peanuts (in this case, Iman Shumpert), since otherwise they’d lose Nash for nothing. If Nash chooses New York over Toronto, and the Suns can find an amicable, cap-friendly deal to be had, there’s nothing further the Raptors can do. They took away New York’s biggest chip though, as the deal, to work under the cap, would now need to include Toney Douglas, Shumpert, as well as someone sign-and-traded at a significant dollar amount (though potentially non-guaranteed) going back to Phoenix to make the salaries work. So it’s a smart move, but if that’s the only purpose, it’s extremely risky since the Raptors could be left holding their proverbial dick if Nash still opts for the Empire State (or Dallas).

In pure basketball terms, Fields is the type of player Nash seems to bring the most out of, but Fields alone certainly isn’t going to convince Nash to come here….if he’s coming, it’s for primarily off-court reasons.

As a Jeremy Lin Tactic??
It was suggested to me that, since J-Lin and Fields are BFFs, it’s possible this move also served the second purpose of attracting Lin in the event the Raptors miss out on Nash. I don’t buy it, but thought I should mention it.

Cap Implications
So with Fields in the fold, what happens with the cap situation? If you look at the chart below, you can see that once the rookies are signed and Fields is included, the Raptors are out of cap space. The chart shows Ross and Jonas at 120% of “rookie scale” value which is the normal signing amount, but until they are actually signed they count for 20% less than the amount shown here (and no, I didn’t do this just to add confusion). How, then, would they give Nash the 3yr/36M deal that has been reported? Well, it means they damn sure have to use the Amnesty Provision or trade Jose Calderon. If Jose is amnestied, that clears up most of the room there if Sonny Weems’ rights are renounced. Additionally, the Raptors could trade Jose to a team with cap space and merely get a trade exception, pick, or low-level salary in return. The Raptors would also have the option of renouncing the rights to Bayless and using the Amnesty Provision on Amir, thereby clearning more than $10M.

The most likely scenario seems to be an Amnesty of Jose to clear the space. While this makes me sad as someone who is a massive Calderon fan, Jose will get to move on to a winning situation based on him rumored suitors, so it’s not like he’s being sentenced to Charlotte or anything.

Ilyasova??
According to his agent (obviously an unbiased, trustworthy and reputable source…oh, wait…) the Raptors have made an undisclosed offer to Ersan Ilyasova. I don’t believe it, for several reasons. For one, the Raptors don’t have the cap space, and Ilyasova admitted he’s going to the highest bidder. Furthermore, the Raptors have more than enough power forwards on the roster, and it’s not clear if Ilyasova can play the three (see the first chart above – he played under 100 minutes there last year). While his floor-spacing and rebounding would be nice, a signing in the $8M annual range would be too cumbersome a cap situation. To bring Ilysaova, Fields, and Nash all into the fold would require a trade of Jose and an Amnesty of Amir (or vice versa), or some other maneuvering whereby assets are sacrificed, beyond just money and flexibility, for Turkish Josh Hartnett. I like the player, but I don’t see there being much to this rumor (at this point, anyway…things could change if Nash falls through) other than his agent creating a market for his client.

Tu Holloway
No, this has nothing to do with Fields, but I wanted to point out that Xavier Senior Point Guard Tu Holloway will be joining the Raptors’ Summer League team. I liked Holloway in college, and while his upside is low, you could certainly do worse than a minimum-contract flier as a third PG.

Conclusions?
Well, the analysis is basically inconclusive, or incomplete, at this point because a) Fields could still back out, b) a lot of the reaction depends on the Nash situation, and c) you kind of have to look at offseason moves in their entirety rather than individually. But allow me to quickly summate what I think I was getting at here – Fields appears to be a great guy, a good player, an OK small forward option, and the Raptors got him at a slight premium over market value but potentially a slight discount under “book” value. The analysis was obviously difficult without a clear idea of the final roster composition, and the fact that Fields has had two wildly differing seasons to begin his career and we can’t be sure of his “true” talent level.

I mean, the internet laughed…but then kind of settled on “meh” as a response. The comments here at RR were generally harsh, but the site’s poll showed 67% support for the move. So…I don’t mean to be under-dramatic, but there were worse ways to spend the money, and if we end up with Nash we’re not really going to care too much anyway. Fields’ isn’t an outlook-changing acquisition.

Five Points on Fields

1. You could listen to Bill Simmons
   or you could rub a few facts together. I know its hard. But if you bothered to look, Landry Fields played the second most minutes of any Knick last year. No, he wasn’t the 11th man as much as you wanted to believe it (thinking is hard). And the offer is for $19 million. And its back end loaded. And Steve Nash turned 38 this past February. But making crap up to illicit a passionate response is the name of the game and Bill knows clicks are clicks (yes, we advertised it as well and most everyone simply accepted it as the gospel).
2. You could also look at the the structure of the deal. Some of the very same Raptors’ fans endorsed Daryl Morey’s move to offer offensively challenged Omer Asik $25 million over THREE years as brilliant. Why? It was a “poison pill” type structure – in this case severely back end loaded, which essentially guarantees Chicago cannot match (note: this is not a direct comment on the merits of the Asik deal – I realize he’s an excellent defender). Landry Fields’ reported deal starts (see TSN’s Tim Chisholm’s article) at $5 million this year and ends at $8.9 million (see more on this later). Houston needed a big defender while Toronto needed a wing scorer. Why isn’t this deal structure just as brilliant?

   Maybe its even more so. Thankfully, reporters like Chisholm caught it right away: “Without a sign-and-trade, the Knicks are stuck at offering Nash only $3 million per year, or roughly one-quarter of what the Raptors are prepared to pay to get a deal done [...] if the race is really between Toronto and New York, Colangelo’s pre-emptive strike against New York’s sign-and-trade options illustrates the seriousness with which he covets Nash as a future Raptor. Of course, Fields is more than just a pawn in the Nash chase; he’s a player that the Raptors are going to integrate into their attack next season.”

3. Landry Fields can spend minutes at SF. Some have speculated DeRozan would have to move full time to SF. For New York last season, he spent more than half his time at the 3 spot. He’s 6’7″ and can match up fine in many situations there.
4. Some have also noted Fields’ shot only 25.6% from beyond the arc last year versus a hot 39.3% in his rookie year. This was obviously cause for concern. However, if you think about the “new look” Knicks offense (predicated on little ball movement, except for Lin) in his second year, it is understandable. Last year, NYK had the 4th highest turnover rate and was ranked 22nd in % of field goals assisted on. As an example, Fields’ 2pt FG% “improved from 50.2% to 55.7% playing with Jeremy Lin last season” (as per Kevin Pelton). Its likely he’s not a 40% three point shooter, nor a 25% shooter. Coupled with a pass first PG that can also shoot (hint: Nash or Calderon), he’s likely somewhere in between.
5. His adjusted +/- is quite good. Yes, this can be “noisy”, but (click image to see it completely)

   
   Fields appears to make positive contributions to both offense and defense when on the floor. Fields has the best 1 year and 2 year adjusted +/- of all Knicks who played over 1,000 min last season. And Landry just turned 24 and most players continue to improve significantly at this age.

Net, net: its a very smart gamble.

You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take. – Wayne Gretzky

This is a shot worth taking. This is not 30 year old, beat up Jermaine O’Neal. This is not a four year deal for a defensively challenged Jason Kapono.

Here is an example of the decision tree (well, its not exactly a “tree”, but you get it) I would make in this situation:

I’m sure I could’ve displayed this better, but I hope you get the idea. The most important piece of the analysis is the removal of New York from the Nash equation (although *maybe* they could try a sign and trade with Lin + parts, but I don’t see it) and thus the increased odds of Nash joining Toronto. It also introduces option 2b, which not only lands Nash in Toronto (again making it near impossible for NYK to be a factor), but also has them accepted a large deal in the face of mega deals for Carmelo and Amar’e. Thus, 2a becomes a likely scenario and is not without risk. Toronto could increase its odds to land Nash, but still has a chance of only landing Fields – I peg this scenario at 20%. In this worst case scenario, we’d be paying a player that is much more productive than most believe, especially when part of a pass first PG and better ball movement. At $5M or so the first two years, then an expiring deal, this is a bold but calculated move. If you are concerned by the combined 3rd year salary for scenario 2a, then consider the dramatic increase in revenue MLSE will get by this move. Would the Raptors average attendance go from 16,800 last season to something like 19,500 like it was in 2008? Using TMR’s Fan Cost Index of approximately $75 a ticket, that’s $25 million in additional ticket revenue alone. Add increased money for TV deals (viewership would be up significantly with Nash), a few playoff games (~$2 million per game in ticket revenue alone), merchandise, Real Sports etc and you could probably double it. So, by year 3, MLSE will have significantly more resources handle these salaries and deal with any potential cap tax issues (i.e. will be able to easily handle deals which put them over the cap – given the large amounts Nash and Fields will earn in year 3).

There are very few “no risk” deals. Teams always have to balance risk and reward. I believe the Raptors have been savvy with this deal. It’s always a gamble, but this is a good one.

Questions? There is a dedicated to “Statophile Q&A” forum thread here . If you prefer to send questions privately, you’re welcome to email me at tomliston [at] gmail [dot] com or find me on Twitter (@Liston).

Older and Damn Productive

A quick one since its timely.

Everyone seems concerned with Nash’s ability to contribute at 38. While its very rare for a player to be productive at this age, its not without precedent. Here’s how “old and unproductive” Nash was last year – in a compressed season where most of the older guys suffered through the schedule.

Source: basketball-reference.com

He’s obviously too old to play any more. How did he stack up last season against other PGs – of any age?

Source: hoopdata.com

So Nash has been very productive despite his age. But can he hold up and be productive at reasonably the same levels? NBA aging curves suggest Nash should be in steep decline. However, PGs can often hold up longer, especially “pass first” PGs. And Nash’s diet and exercise regimen is well documented.

A PG playing at a high level at age 36 or older isn’t without precedent. The great John Stockton played at a very high level for several years beyond 36. I don’t see why Nash couldn’t replicate this feat.

Source: basketball-reference.com

I’m not sure how one can argue bringing a winning culture – with a NBA champion as a coach (Casey) and a two time MVP as a leader – to an organization is a bad thing.

Could he get hurt and it turn to be a bad deal? Sure. Could a #1 pick get hurt and play less than 100 career games? Yeah. There are no sure things – but this is as smart of a move as it gets.

Any time you have an opportunity to get a top ranked producer and a first class leader, you do it.

Questions? There is a dedicated to “Statophile Q&A” forum thread here . If you prefer to send questions privately, you’re welcome to email me at tomliston [at] gmail [dot] com or find me on Twitter (@Liston).

Oh, front-loading. Fancy.

First up, Draft Party is this Thursday at St. Louis Bar and Grill – Yonge/College.

The nice thing about this time of year, for those of us cheering for moribund franchises like the Toronto Raptors, is that hope springs eternal. No matter the situation, no matter the moves that are made, there’s always a chance to put a positive, rosy spin on things. Homerism? Sure. Blind optimism? Definitely. But one of the primary reasons perennial underachievers like the Raptors maintain strong fan interest throughout the long, dunk-less summer months? Absolutely.

Then again, it’s also the time of year for the negative population among us to spit vitriol, cursing the management of the team up and down, questioning the motives of The Corporation, and tagging every single draft prospect with the Bust label before a single game of Summer League has been played.

How can this dichotomy possibly exist among a large group of people that, apparently, all consider themselves to be Raptor fans? It’s easy – it’s all in how you spin things. Every trade can be looked at a positive or a negative, every pick oozing with potential or an obvious bust, every move management makes as an affront to the future or a gladhand to a mediocre present. It’s all in the spin.

So today, I’m looking at some of the things we can be on alert for in the next few days. In case you don’t have an opinion yet, or are too lazy to develop sentences on either side of the fence, I’m providing the positive and negative spin for a number of moves that could conceivably go down. If any of these take place, simply copy and paste the “positive spin” or “negative spin” in the comments section of the relevant RR article.

Raptors trade #8 pick to Houston for Kyle Lowry
This is the hottest rumor out there right now – the Rockets are looking to stockpile assets to make a run at Dwight Howard, or are just looking to move into the top-10, depending on where you’re doing your reading. Regardless, the scenario is that the Raptors would move the #8 pick, possibly with a roster player, for Lowry.
Positive Spin: Lowry is sick!! He’s a defensive-minded point guard, still has loads of potential, and improved by leaps and bounds in the last two years. He shoots the three, had a 19 PER, guards two positions, and is still only 26. Plus, he’s affordable at roughly $6M/year for the next two seasons. Colangelo maneuvers assets to improve the team in the short-term and long-term once again!
Negative Spin: Great, a coach killer! This guy is at odds with McHale, demands a trade, and now we swoop in and give a top-10 pick we spent all season tanking to get for him. He only averaged 14 points, plus we already have Jose and Bayless, and could have gotten a point guard with that pick. Uggh, Colangelo once again sacrifices the long-term future for a few extra wins now.

Raptors Sign Steve Nash
Let’s assume Nash comes here because of his Canadian roots, his spot as GM of the National team, and the Raptors cap space making a 2yr/$20M offer something that’s doable.
Positive Spin: Maple-boner! Captain Canada comes home! There’s nothing better we could have asked for than a home-grown superstar coming here, making everyone better instantly, and teaching our young guys on the fly. Casey can hide his poor man defense in the team system, and Jose can play off the ball more, while Bayless takes the Barbosa role off the bench. DeMar’s numbers are going to go through the roof, and can you imagine Bargs running the P&R with STEVE F***NG NASH!!!
Negative Spin: Oh great, a near-40 point guard, the third one on our squad, taking up all of our cap space just so MLSE/Rogers+Bell can sell a few extra jerseys and tickets and make even more money off of us. Okay, so Nash maybe pushes us to a first round playoff exit…so what? Oh yeah, playoff ticket revenue for The Corporation.

Raptors Do Not Sign Steve Nash
The more likely scenario, it seems, has Nash signing with a winning team for a shot at a ring.
Positive Spin: Oh well, Nash deserves a chance to try and win a Championship, and we couldn’t offer him that here. While he’d improve the team now, he still wouldn’t be the long-term answer, and maybe he can still come here for his final season further on down the road. Best of luck, Steve!
Negative Spin: Okay, so the best Canadian of all time becomes a free agent and Canada’s only team can’t show the foresight to throw everything at this guy?? Who has he played with that didn’t have a career year? Nash would have had us in the playoffs without a doubt, and been a reason for other free agents to want to come here. Typical Raptors B.S., ignoring the obvious move right in front of their faces.

Raptors Amnesty Jose Calderon
This is somewhat likely if the Lowry trade or Nash signing occur, freeing up about $10M in additional cap space, and reducing the point guard redundancy in those events. It seems far less likely if those events don’t happen.
Positive Spin: Jose’s a great guy, but he isn’t worth his contract, and this frees up significant cash to help the team win now. We had too much money tied up in guards, so this lets us balance the roster out, while also giving Jose a chance to sign on somewhere where his contributions are more needed.
Negative Spin: This guy has been the best, most likable, most consistent Raptor for years now and The Corporation throws him out on his ass…for what? So we can waste the $10M on some overpaid veteran, probably. Brutal…finally a guy shows some loyalty to the franchise and we show everyone that it won’t be reciprocated…nice message to your young players and free agents.

Raptors Amnesty Amir Johnson
This one is probably less likely, but is possible if the Raptors wanted to make a large offer to a free agent and clear up their PF depth.
Positive Spin: Finally! Amir wasn’t worth the contract when we signed him to it, and he hasn’t improved anywhere close to enough to earn it since. The guy can’t stay healthy, can’t stop fouling, and now we can use that money on a position of need. Good riddance.
Negative Spin: His PER! His adjusted-plus/minus statistics! By all accounts this has been our MVP the past two seasons, and now we cut him (and still pay him, by the way) so we can offer that cap sapce to someone who won’t have half the impact on games he had. Colangelo needs to stop just looking at the boxscore and understand how basketball really works!

Bayless is Non-Tendered
Jerryd Bayless can become a restricted free agent if the Raptors tender him a qualifying offer. The Raptors could also work out a contract with him, or they could non-tender him, making him an unrestricted free agent and removing his cap hold from the books.
Positive Spin: Good riddance! We can draft a point guard at #8 to pair with Jose, and Bayless can waste possessions dribbling into traffic for someone else. After four years, everyone should know what Bayless is – a mediocre, out-of-control, me-first “point guard” destined to be a bench player. Potential can only get you so far.
Negative Spin: Are you serious?? Every time this guy has been given a chance to start, he’s shone. His numbers when Jose is out are ridiculous, and the NBA is moving towards score-first penetating point guards. Why draft someone on potential when we already have Bayless, who is what we would HOPE the pick becomes, and he still has untapped upside! We couldn’t spare $4M to at least retain his rights? Typical Colangelo B.S., Nash is the only point guard good enough, and he can’t see how the game is changing to a different style.

Raptors Trade for Gay or Iguodala
These rumors have died down significantly, but two weeks ago rumors were that the Raptors were trying to package the #8 pick with roster players for Rudy Gay or Andre Iguodala. For this exercises, I use them interchangably.
Positive Spin: Finally, the Raptors get an above-average wing player! It’s been what, since Vince left, that we haven’t had any good players on the wing? Now we have someone who can score/defend (Gay/Iggy) at an elite level, and we finally have some roster balance. The contract is fair, and we have to overpay to get people here anyway. We now have depth and talent at every position…playoffs!
Negative Spin: Great, let’s take on another team’s financial mistake and give up assets in the process. If he was worth his contract, they wouldn’t be trading him. He can’t score/defend (Iggy/Gay) on his own, and it’s not like this pushes the team anywhere past the first round. So we’ve tied up our financial flexibility and given up assets for the future for what, a first round exit for the next three years? Great, we’re the Hawks.

Raptors Draft Davis, Robinson, Kidd-Gilchrist, Beal, or Barnes
In this unlikely scenario, one of these guys slips from the top-5 down to #8.
Positive Spin: Holy s**t! I can’t believe this guy slipped! This is one of the luckiest days in franchise history, to get a #1/#2 talent at #8. This is a franchise-changer, and gives us a huge asset to pair with Jonas moving forward! Woooo!
Negative Spin: Okay, there’s a reason these guys slipped…if you’re supposed to go top-5 all this time, and then you mysteriously fall, there’s obviously something we don’t know here, and Colangelo didn’t do his due dilligence. We haven’t even worked this guy out (Barnes excepted), so how can we even be comfortable with him? Groupthink wins the day, I guess.

Raptors Draft Damian Lillard
Positive Spin: Finally, our point guard of the future! He had the second best PER in the country, he tested off-the-charts D-Rose level good at the combine, and he’s the kind of attacking guard that NBA teams need to be successful in today’s NBA. This guy is a game-changer, and the only reason he wasn’t a top-3 pick was his small school. This is a huge steal!
Negative Spin: This guy hasn’t even played against quality competition, and we’re going to annoint him the savior because he’s similar to Rose on some tests? He’s another me-first guard, and we already have Bayless on the roster. We needed a creator like Kendall Marshall, but what we really needed was a wing. This one’s going to look bad when three guys later in the draft are all putting up 20 per game in 2015.

Raptors Draft Andre Drummond
Positive Spin: I can’t believe the guy with the biggest potential in the entire draft lasted until #8! He’s only 18 years old and is the biggest freak of nature in the draft since Dwight Howard! He’s huge, quick, and has growing left to do…plus he’ll have instant defensive impact! We’ve got the time to let him develop, and he and Jonas could make a ridiculous front-court together that would scare every team in the league.
Negative Spin: Umm, didn’t we just draft a franchise center last year? So all the hype about Jonas is out the window now? I don’t see it…he’s the most raw player in the draft and is probably going to be Kwame Brown…the guy has no motor and doesn’t look like he cares at all. This will be a disaster when he’s getting Alabi minutes behind Jonas.

Raptors Draft Dion Waiters
Positive Spin: The D-Wade comparisons have me sold…he was underrated playing on a stacked Syracuse team, but Waiters is a game-changing scorer who can guard multiple positions. He can upgrade us at the two, maybe even play some point, and will finally give us a crunch-time scorer to demand the ball and create. This is the best fit in basketball terms we could have asked for.
Negative Spin: This guy only played half the game at ‘Cuse, now we expect him to be the top guy on an NBA team? We already have Bayless to be a shooting-guard pretending to be a point guard, and you don’t choose a back-up at #8. Way too early for a guy like this, and you could have gotten soemone similar later. Plus, we’ve already got Jose, Bayless, and DeMar…nobody at the three, hello!

Raptors Draft Austin Rivers
Positive Spin: An elite NBA-IQ with great scoring instincts, and superstar potential? Sign me up…on potential alone he should have been top-5. Duke isn’t friendly to high-volume scorers, and Rivers has the potential to be a game-changing combo guard or 2-man. Casey can get him to buy in defensively, and you know he has all-world intelligence with Doc as a father. He’ll be a high-character leader for a team that desperately needs an alpha.
Negative Spin: Terrific, a me-first scorer who doesn’t do anything else at an elite level, and doesn’t even score all that well. Just because his dad is a good coach doesn’t make him a good player, and if his name was Austin Smith he’d be ont he first round bubble. Give me a break.

Raptors Draft Jeremy Lamb
Positive Spin: Lamb is going to fit right into this offense, immediately! The “lazy” concerns are just how he looks and plays, Casey will have no trouble coaxing effort from him….shots and playing time are the ultimate motivator. Remember how hot he got during UConn’s 2011 title run? That’s an All-Star right there, and Lamb can fill it up, off-the-ball or off the dribble. This is the versatile scorer we’ve been waiting for forever…and with his length, he should be a good defender in time, too!
Negative Spin: A lazy, doesn’t care, score-only wing who looks like he could fall asleep any time…didn’t we have later-years Vince Carter already? This guy admitted he has to FIND MOTIVATION each game, and he’s supposed to be our new alpha scorer and crunch time hero? This guy’s gonna colelct a paycheque and chuck mid-range jumpers and that’s it.

Raptors Draft Perry Jones III
Positive Spin: You definitely can’t fault the team for swinging for the fences here! Jones has top-3 potential but just hasn’t had a position or team fit yet, as Baylor asked him to not be himself there. Casey can easily turn Jones into a defensive menace at the three with his length and agility, and the offense will come when you consider his handle and athleticism. He might end up being the best player from this draft…huge value at #8!
Negative Spin: A guy with no position, an ego and attitude, and lacking a motor…ladies and gentleman, your Raptors’ draft choice! Just awesome…he wants to be a three, has the size of a four, but the muscle of a two, and he has no head for the game. There’s a reason mocks had him going anywhere and everywhere….nobody wants to risk their job on a tools-only tool like this…except BC, apparently.

Raptors Draft Another Player
Positive Spin: Wow, nobody saw that coming! You’ve got to hand it to BC for playing this close to the vest the whole time so other teams wouldn’t swoop in on him here. Mocks didn’t really see it coming, but when have mocks after predicted the success of players well? We obviously saw a need and a talent here, and kudos to the team for having the balls to get the guy they wanted, not letting public opinion dictate their pick.
Negative Spin: Colangelo always has to think he’s smarter than everyone else. Reaching at #8 for a guy not expected to go top-10? Why not trade down and get an asset then? Remember when we reached for Hoffa, how’d that work out? You take the best player available, you can’t be reaching this far on a hunch.

–

I just want to provide the disclaimer here that I don’t really believe any of these things, as it should be clear since I was arguing for both sides. For the record, I’m pro-Lowry (great contract value, and a steal for the #8 pick) and pro-Nash (we’re not winning a title anyway, might as well enjoy ourselves!) if either (not both) can happen. If we keep the pick, I’d like Lillard first, then Lamb, then Rivers…I’m not sold on Waiters above these other guys for whatever reason, just my gut feeling. If we trade down (say, our #8 and #36 to Houston for #14 and #16), I’d be all over PJIII with one of those picks, but feel #8 is too early given current mock drafts. I think regardless, the writing is on the wall for one of Jose or Bayless, since most Raptors rumors involve a point guard, and if the pick is kept I’d get to the gym if I’m DD, since it looks like he’ll be asked to play a lot more small forward soon.

Really looking forward to Thursday! Don’t forget about the RR draft party….I probably won’t be there, as I live an hour away and am currently on crutches after doing ligament damage to my driving foot/ankle landing on someone’s foot off a rebound last week. But you should definitely go.

Anyway, it’s been a couple days since we posted anything here, what with Chad Ford’s Mock Draft 6.0 still pegging the Raptors to reach for Dion Waiters of Syracuse, and not much else happening in terms of draft news ahead of this weekend’s Chicago combine.

There was, however, a rumor floating around some Toronto media sites and forums about the Raptors’ plans ahead of the draft and into the summer. It was mostly speculative, but when the rumor chain reaches as high as Marc Stein, we can at least think about it and respond in kind, whether it’s a pipe dream or not.

So, I direct your attention to this article from True Hoop, which states:

”The Toronto Raptors know exactly what they want out of the 2012 NBA draft:

An established, athletic wing man.

And that’s why the Raptors have already made it known to rival teams that their lottery pick on June 28 — No. 8 overall — is available to a trade partner that can provide the elite small forward they seek, according to sources close to the situation. “

The piece also outlines Rudy Gay and Andre Iguodala as the primary targets, with the pick, Jose Calderon, and Ed Davis being potentially tradable assets.

The piece then, of course, mentions what we’ve all been having wet dreams about since he signed on as General Manager of Canada Basketball – that Steve Nash could come play in Toronto. Well, it doesn’t say “could” but implies “the Raptors would get just as wet for this idea as their fans would.”

So is there any chance the Raptors can utilize their #8 pick with their current assets to get a star wing player, thus helping attract Steve Nash here? Well, my big issue with the idea is that it’s very difficult to do without a wink and a nod from Nash letting you know he’ll come here, which is of course against the rules until July 1st, which is of course before the draft on June 28. If you ignore that fact, let’s look at the two intended targets quickly.

Rudy Gay is a great fit in basketball terms, since his scoring prowess from the wing is something the team sorely lacks, and his defensive shortcomings could either be hidden in team defensive schemes or coached away by Casey. In terms of salary, it’s burdensome at $15M for three more years, but the nature of a Toronto franchise, as we’ve learned, is that you may have to overpay for elite talent. A deal of the #8 pick, Jose, and Davis for Gay works under the salary cap, but likely wouldn’t be enough to entice Memphis to make the deal – both Jose and Davis would be backups on their squad, while the #8 pick wouldn’t replace Gay’s production (yet), and the cost savings wouldn’t be substantial enough to comfortably keep O.J. Mayo in the fold. You could throw in another asset somewhere, but nobody with a small enough contract to fit in the deal would really push it over the to, and it would eat some of their flexibility up. Maybe there’s a potential deal here though.

Andre Iguodala seems a great fit in terms of character and style of play, being a defense-first, team-oriented player with versatility in abundance. While he isn’t the elite wing scorer the team needs he’d still become their best one, and is more affordable at $13.5M for two more seasons. Unfortunately, the 76ers have adequate depth and only really lack for the financial flexibility to re-sign Lou Williams and Spencer Hawes, so I’m not sure offering them a Jose/Davis/pick package really fills any needs for Philly – Jose would split time with Jrue Holiday, Davis would split time with Thad Young, and the #8 pick would probably be a shooter to start at a wing (Terrence Ross maybe), while offering next to no financial benefit in the short-term. The Raptors could take back Thad Young to give the Sixers some financial relief ($7.5M for four more years), but then the Raptors need to somehow send assets back that match his production, which is substantial.

So in both of these cases, it’s questionable whether a deal even makes sense for the team sending out the pseudo-star. Maybe a three-team deal is out there, or maybe I’m undervaluing a Jose/Davis/#8 package. Mostly I wanted to throw the article up here to foster discussion, and pose three questions:

1) Would you prefer Gay or Iguodala?
2) What package would it take to get either one?
3) Would Steve Nash sign for 3yrs-$30M (approximately) to play with a team that would look as follows?

PG: Nash, Bayless
SG: DeRozan, Forbes
SF: Gay/Iguodala, Kleiza, Johnson
PF: Bargnani, Amir
C: Valanciunas
Plus the 37th overall pick

Yes, the odds are slim, but it’s not like we have much else to talk about, and 3.55% is a heck of a lot higher than 0%, so it’s worth exploring. So…the Raptors now have the #1 pick come June 28.

Congratulations, folks, we now have just selected Anthony Davis first overall out of Kentucky.

This is absolutely cause for celebration.

After a whirlwind two nights of partying and celebrating, it’s now June 30. Free agency begins tomorrow, and we’ve had to scrap our offseason plan because we didn’t think there was anyway we’d be so blessed as to get The Unibrow in black and red. So where do we go from here to put a competitive team around our newly-found dynamic frontcourt duo? What does our roster look like?

Based on this breakdown, it’s obvious that the Raptors still need some wing help pretty desperately. Given the cap figures for the rookies, the Raptors have about 3.5M in cap space. They would also receive a 2.5M mid-level exception for teams under the cap (or 5M if they go over the cap before July 1, I think, though I’m not positive), per the new CBA, and they also have the 37th overall pick in the draft.

Since the NBA Gods already smiled on us once with the #1 overall pick, let’s also assume they allow PG Scott Machado to remain on the board at #37, thereby giving us our 3rd string point guard. Sensing no team will offer him a full mid-level, Bayless opts to sign his qualifying offer, play out the year, and become a UFA next season.

That leaves us with 2.7M to grab at least one difference-making wing player. Obviously, that’s not enough money. Our options then become:

1) Roll with DD, Forbes, JJ, and Kleiza. While it’s not flashy and wasn’t overly successful last year, the relative strengths elsewhere could overcome this weakness. You could also factor in (hopefully) some improved defense from DD and some further development from Forbes and JJ.

2) Amnesty Kleiza to make a run at a better SF. This would clear 4.6M off the books, giving the team 7.3M to spend under the cap, not quite enough to lure an RFA like Batum. Maybe this figure gets you a Jeff Green, but any deal with him is obviously heavy on health risk. You could also use the cash on a 2-guard, but that kind of cash has you more in the J.R. Smith range than the Eric Gordon/O.J. Mayo range.

3) Amnesty Amir to make a run at a wing. This clears slightly more cash (6M, giving 8.7M to spend), and also gets rid of the roster crunch at the big positions. That extra bit of cash available may help with luring one of the aforementioned RFAs.

4) Try to make a trade. I’d assume Amir would be the preferred trade bait, but it’s not clear exactly what is value would be, although maybe he’d be a decent consollation for a team sign-and-trading an RFA if we kicked in a future pick or that 2nd rounder? I don’t know, this is a complicated option, I guess, and Ed Davis may have more value in a trade due to his contract.

5) Play Bargs at the three. This couldn’t be a full time move as he’d be torched defensively by most other threes, but it would give the Raptors an imposing lineup for certain looks. Playing this big spreads out some of the minutes among the front-court players while also hiding the weakness at the wing. How feasible is it? I would assume Casey would be open to trying it for 2-3 minute stretches, especially against teams with non-scoring threes, but it doesn’t really solve the roster imbalance. It’d still be very interesting to see though.

6) Trade Bargs. Annnnd cue the arguments. I could explore, but this seems like an idea better saved as an article for AFTER (if) the Raptors win the lottery. What could you get for him? Do you have enough offensively without him? Can he play extended time at the three? Debate!

I’d probably roll with option #3, amnestying Amir and making a run at one of the RFA wings like Batum, Gordon, or Mayo, if a trade was too complicated or returned too little value. You’d also have the benefit of KNOWING they were going to sign with you before amnestying Amir (or Linas), so the risk is mitigated there in the sense that you’d only do it if you were positive of the signing (although the risk of the team matching the offer still exists). I know some won’t like losing a capable role player with strong peripheral statistics, but if Anthony Davis was brought into the picture, something would have to be done about the logjam there, and Amir has the most burdensome contract of the group.

Anyway, this was all hypothetical of course, so don’t put me through the ringer. I am very interested to hear, though, how you would all handle the roster moves for the rest of the summer if we win the lottery tonight.

Many believe Nash instead of chasing a title with a contender for a lesser salary will go back to Canada and the Raptors for a three-year deal and help bring their young players along

Smith calls this ‘informed speculation’ (listen to Joseph Casciaro’s solid interview with Sam Smith), and at first glance, there are couple things at play that could make this a reality:

• Nash recently took the reigns of Canada Basketball, so being based out of Toronto seems to be a no-brainer for someone running a program that is based out of Toronto (I assume it’s based here).
• He would be treated like a god while leading and mentoring a young Raptor’s team. This would also bleed into his Canada Basketball duties as the kids on the squad would benefit from an up-close-and-personal look at him in action.
• He has demonstrated time-and-again that loyalty is more important than winning a championship; he could have easily asked to be shipped out of Phoenix the last couple years to a championship calibre team, but he didn’t, and has towed the company line for the Suns. I’m sure he would kill for a championship, but it seems he values other ‘things’ above getting one – gotta love principals.

1. What happens to Calderon? To get a Steve Nash to come to Toronto, you’re looking at a 3yr/$30m type deal, which would commit more than a third of the Raptors payroll to two aging point guards on a rebuilding team. I’m not arguing either of their value to a rebuilding team, just the actual investment being made especially considering Bayless is more than serviceable as a backup.
2. Does Calderon or Kleiza get amnestied? Before you rip my head off, amnestying Calderon would be retarded (Colagelo’s phone would be ringing off the hook if Nash came to town). Kleiza on the other hand, could be a candidate. Yes, it would be nice to have him here to help Jonas acclimate, but at just under $5m/year, that money could be better spent on an Ersan Ilayasova or something (sign me up for that btw).
3. Would the Raptors draft a point guard this year? That would be the second domino (the 3rd being Calderon gets traded). Nash would obviously be the starter, but I don’t see him playing more than 30-32 minutes a game. Bayless has shown growth this season, but I’m not sold on him being a starter; even if he is, the Raptors need a third pg who can be groomed to start or come off the bench once succession falls into place.

My $0.02? I make this move in a second. Nash is an upgrade to Calderon in all facets of the game; even considering his age (31.6min 12.5pts 10.7ast 3.0rebs 20.29per vs 33.9min 10.5pts 8.8ast 3.0rebs 16.73per). You could get good value for Calderon, while maintaining a high calibre of play at the point by bringing him in.

I’m excited for this summer; player movement is going to be insane.

Pietrus gives the Raptors three point shooting, as well as much needed defense out on the wing; things that Casey covets.

Along with the Magloire signing, the Raptors seem to be bringing in cheap(ish), defensive oriented veterans that will come off the books at the end of the season, giving the Raps some nice cap space to try and make something happen.