We made it through the long-preseason.

I thought with pre-season having wrapped up it would be a good time to quickly look back at some of the items we’ve been discussing and reflect on them as we head into the season opener on Wednesday.

Preseason – Does it Mean Anything?
A 6-1 record is nothing to sneeze it, especially when it’s accompanied by a top-5 offensive efficiency just a year after being 29th in the stat. The defense wasn’t quite where coach Dwane Casey wants it, but the offense was on point. In addition, newcomers Kyle Lowry and Jonas Valanciunas seem to have acclimated themselves well, though Terrence Ross and Landry Fields have been a bit slower to come around and get comfortable in their roles.

I wrote an article for Hoop Data yesterday (I’ll hyperlink when it’s up Monday) that outlines whether or not we should put much stock in the preseason. The answer is yes, a little bit, as very few teams in recent years have been this successful in the preseason without seeing resultant gains in the regular season.

DeMar DeRozan Shooting Patterns
Originally this article was going to be strictly about DeRozan’s shooting habits in the preseason, which appear, to my eye (note: I only saw four of the seven games) to be more what we’re hoping for, with a continued focus on attacking the rim. As it is, only one of the seven preseason games have shot charts available for them, so this is damn near impossible to do (play by play results don’t always show shot distances). So, I’m left to simply use free throw attempts as a gauge.

And it’s impressive. Last year, DeMar averaged 5.3 free throw attempts per game in 35 minutes, or 5.45 per 36 minutes. He also averaged 14.3 field goal attempts, meaning he took 0.37 free throws for every field goal. In the preseason those rates improved to 5.7 attempts per game in just 26 minutes, good for a rate of 7.9 attempts per 36 minutes, or a 45% increase in free throw attempt frequency. That’s the same rate as LeBron last year, as a reference point. He shot just under 11 field goals per contest, meaning he took 0.53 free throws for every field goal, a 43% improvement.

So yes, DeMar has been shooting from the field a bit more but also from the line a lot more, which is a huge positive. I wish I could break down where those other shots were coming from in terms of at the rim (good), mid-range (less good), or long-twos (bad), but I can’t.

Jonas Valanciunas – Saviour
The Lethaluanian has been a treat to watch so far, and great to listen to off the floor based on sound bites and media reports. It’s a nice sign that he’s so eager to learn and please, and I highly recommend anyone who hasn’t seen it check out Eric Koreen’s recent profile on him and Holly MacKenzie’s earlier profile on him. Those are must-reads for Raptor fans.

In terms of numbers, Jonas fared well in his 23 minutes of action a night. Valanciunas posted 6.8 rebounds per game, two of those on the offensive glass, while adding 8.3 points a night on 48.5% shooting. Perhaps more importantly, he took 3.8 trips to the line per game and converted at a 78.3% clip, a great sign early for the young stud. He also led all rookies with 1.8 blocks per game, though he was also third with 2.7 turnovers, showing he’s still a bit green. The biggest positive might be that he averaged just 3.3 fouls in 23.3 minutes, meaning that given an anticipated workload of 25 minutes a night, he shouldn’t find himself in foul trouble all too often (sometimes, sure).

Overall, he certainly passes the eye test. He dives and cuts hard, sets strong screens, and seems to have an IQ at both ends of the floor that is rare for a big at his age. He has strong blocking instincts and a good work ethic for rebounds, and there have been multiple times where his presence as a dive-man has disrupted defenses and led to scoring opportunities for teammates. He’s going to be a very good player eventually, and I’m sticking by my prediction that the Rookie of the Year voting will end up Davis-Lillard-Jonas with the latter two tied (random, I know).

Amir’s Jumper: Wet
Oh yeah, it’s wet alright. Amir shot 61.4% for the preseason, and while some of those were in close, he also stepped out almost as far as the three-point line on occasion. Those aren’t the shots you want from the offense, but the fact that they’re falling when he takes them is a positive.

Kyle Lowry
As I said before, this guy is a pleasure to watch. Can’t wait to see him when real games are on the line.

Terrence Ross
He hasn’t been great, struggling with his shot and finding his role to some degree. He has looked good in the open court, and his jumper is fundamentally strong so his poor shooting may be a result of a small sample size and some rookie jitters more than any fatal flaw. He’ll be in tough for any bulky chunk of minutes early on, but the best way for him to carve out a spot in Casey’s rotation will be for him to work his ass off at the defensive end and disrupt other wing players with his length and athleticism. Hopefully he was watching closely against Trick or Treat Tony in Memphis.

Landry Field’s Shot
We’ve all been wondering if Field’s silky rookie three-point jumper would return this year or if we’d be subjected to his awful sophomore stroke. Well, there’s no answer yet, as he only fired up eight attempts in the preseason, hitting one. If he’s only going to take one a game to provide the perceived threat of floor spacing, then he doesn’t need to hit that many. But so far in his career he’s averaged north of two attempts a game, so we need to see 33% of them fall to be comfortable. Unfortunately, he also shot just 46% on two-point field goals, which is well below his career mark of 54%. Again, small sample sizes are at play here with just 39 attempts, and his defense and off-ball offense have been great.

Jamaal Magloire, Peace Out
Magloire has been released and will likely join the coaching staff in a Boogie Williams-ish role as a coach and practice body. May your All Star recognition rest in peace now that “centers” don’t have to be shoehorned onto the ballot.

What have been your key positive and negative takeaways from the preseason? Are you a believer in 38-wins and/or a chance at the 8th seed? Is Dwane Casey right to give Ed and Ross both minutes to further prove themselves, or should he let them earn it in practice and keep a tight rotation early on? Should I troll everyone with some outlandish Bargnani and DeRozan comments right here?

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Even Jonas was confused about how to watch this game. But hey, 6 and 1!

I don’t have a ton to say on this game seeing as there was literally no way to watch it if you weren’t in the building - I don’t have a huge problem with every preseason game not being broadcast but I will say that it seems like strange policy to me to do every game besides the final one. In any case, though, let’s take a look at the box score and see if we can pull a few nuggets of information out of there. So this is what it was like following basketball before the Internet!

Raps beat the Grizzlies and finish the preseason with a 6 and 1 record. The win last night wasn’t particularly telling – a loss would have said a lot more about the Raps, who played more or less their entire group of regulars against a Grizzlies team that sat four starters, including Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Ed Davis and Alan Anderson were the players on the Raptors roster that didn’t see the court (besides Jamaal Magloire, who was waived today as many expected) – ED was being held out of the game for precautionary reasons because of a bruised hip but should be good to go for Opening Night. No word on why Anderson didn’t play as far as I can tell.

Our old friend Jerryd Bayless started for the Grizzlies and posted a very Lowry-esque stat line, finishing with 17 points, 7 boards, and 5 assists in just 19 minutes of action. The Grizzlies “starters” in general performed quite well as a group at the outset of the game, jumping out to a big lead in the first quarter against the Raptors’ first unit. These slow starts are getting to be a bit of a pattern for Toronto now and it’s something that coach Casey is going to have to find a solution to before the regular season starts and we aren’t playing other teams’ depleted rosters.

As for our stats, it is nice to see the team put up a big number of points on a regular basis, with 120 tonight. DeMar had a quiet game but I’d imagine that’s largely due to being guarded by Tony Allen for the majority of his minutes – I’m disappointed I wasn’t able to watch their matchup live as it was one of the things I was looking forward to most from this game. Another nice game for Jonas, who picked up 15 and 7 against the likes of Jerome Jordan and Hamed Haddadi, and Bargnani picked up 21 with a just single board, which I’d say is troubling, but it’s not like we aren’t used to stat lines like that from Bargs.

Lowry had another excellent stat line, with 18 points to go with 7 assists and 4 rebounds. We’ve written about him at length this pre-season but I just wanted to re-iterate how exciting it is to have a guy like this on the team this year; he’s a bulldog, an emotional leader and an excellent all-round player and a big reason why this team is thinking playoffs this season. T-Ross got a lot of burn last night and proceeded to shoot 12 times (with eight 3-point attempts!), making 4 of them for a 10 point night. It’s tough to evaluate Ross’ game last night based off a box score, but it does seem like he’s still adjusting to the pace of the NBA, like most rookies. Luckily for him, this is a deep squad this season and he’ll have the luxury of being eased into the game, unlike DD who had to start from the outset. Another great game for Amir, who picked up 15 points in 14 minutes: he’s had a great preseason and seems to be finally realizing some of the potential it seems like people have been waiting years for.

As for the excellent pre-season record, it’s certainly nothing to sneeze at (it’s the best mark in franchise history) but more important than the result is the tone this team has set over the past couple weeks. It’s clear that coach Casey isn’t going to let these guys take a night off, and it seems like we have a group that’s bought into the “all for one and one for all” mentality that’s going to be their key to success this season. The team appears improved at every position from last year and it’s left me (and most Raptors fans) more excited for this season than any in recent memory. The pre-season may be meaningless, but it is a lot more fun when the team is winning!

Regardless of your thoughts on the pre-season, the wait is finally (almost) over: the regular season starts on October 31st (Wednesday) at home against the Pacers. Four more days!

Best pie chart ever?

There’s been a lot of talk this pre-season about how the minutes are going to be distributed for the Raptors’ front-court players this season.

While the team runs five-deep at the big positions, with additional options in rookie Quincy Acy and small-ball power forwards Linas Kleiza and Dominic McGuire, the minutes appear ready to be given to some combination of Andrea Bargnani, Jonas Valanciunas, Amir Johnson, Ed Davis and Aaron Gray.

Because of the introduction of The Lethaluanian and the return to health for Il Mago, we can’t simply assume the minutes will break down the same as they did last year.

2011-12 Minutes Breakdown
Andrea Bargnani – 33.3 MPG (31 games)
Amir Johnson – 24.3 MPG (64 games)
Ed Davis – 23.2 MPG (66 games)
Aaron Gray – 16.6 MPG (49 games)
Jamaal Magloire – 11.0 MPG (34 games)
Solomon Alabi – 8.7 MPG (14 games)
This actually leaves us 959 minutes, or about 14.5 MPG short, which can be accounted for by Linas Kleiza and James Johnson occasionally playing power forward in a smaller lineup.

Small Ball?
This year, I would not expect to see Kleiza at the four too often. While he can be an effective post scorer there, he struggles to defend and there are simply too many bigs to fight for minutes to play someone out of position there except in the most limited of matchups. If anything, I’d expect those “small four” minutes to go to McGuire as a matching mechanisms when teams like Oklahoma, Miami or New York use ball dominant wing players like Durant, LeBron or ‘Melo as “small ball fours.” (Yes, I keep putting that in quotations, since you may recall I’m not a proponent of the traditional five position definitions.)

Regardless, perhaps we can assume a total of 300 minutes going to McGuire and/or Kleiza in this kind of role. They won’t be spread evenly across games and the estimate might be too high or too low, but we’re using it and it leaves us with 7572 minutes left to distribute, assuming no overtime (a terrible assumption, of course, but minute in its impact here).

Remember the Nickname Il Mago?
With Bargnani back to full health, let’s pencil him in for 75 games at 35 MPG. In the past four seasons he’s averaged 31, 35, 36 and 33 minutes while playing in 82% of the team’s games, so I’m being a bit generous with the games played total but fair with the minutes load. It seems unreasonable to expect Andrea to receive less minutes than that on average, but if you want to knock down his games played to create minutes elsewhere, you can probably justify as few as 70 without suggesting a major injury. As it is, Bargnani, the most certain chunk of minutes distribution, gets 2625, leaving us with 4947 left to distribute.

The G.O.A.T.
I’d like to suggest Jonas will get all of the minutes, but that might not be fully realistic given that he’s a rookie, he will have occasional foul trouble, and nobody plays all of the minutes (but if anyone could, it would be Jonas). Valanciunas averaged a foul for every eight minutes of play during the preseason, which seems to be a pretty reasonable rate, although it may be on the lower end in terms of expected foul frequency.

I looked in Basketball Reference at rookie forwards and centers over the last four years to see if I could find a reasonable foul rate expectation, as well as a minutes expectation. Overall, rookie forwards and centers in the past four years have averaged a foul every 8.8 minutes. I also checked to see if block rate was related to foul rate, but there was only a correlation of about 44% so while, yes, shot blockers do tend to foul more, the relationship isn’t extremely pronounced. When I limited the sample to only players who spent at least some time at center I found the foul rate increased to one foul every 7.4 minutes, but shot blocking was even more weakly correlated with foul rate.

Perhaps here, shot blocking shouldn’t predict foul rate, since there are those shot blockers who accumulate the stat while trying to block everything (fouling in the process) but also those who rely on skill and timing to selectively block shots without being over-aggressive. So let’s give Jonas the benefit of the doubt and say that his preseason foul rate is indicative of what to expect in the regular season, and his high block potential shouldn’t impact that any further. A foul every eight minutes is a rate that would not keep him off the floor due to foul trouble a significant amount.

Now, since Jonas is relatively assured of minutes given his draft position, his reputation, and his strong preseason play, and we don’t think fouls will be too cumbersome too often, we have to establish a minutes per game expectation. In the four preseason games that followed his short debut, he averaged 26.5 MPG. Among all rookie centers who appeared in at least 50 games (my cut off for “rookie centers who played a fair amount,” or about 600 minutes) the last four years, the average minutes per game rate was 18.3 while the high was Marc Gasol’s 30.7. Only five centers managed more than 20 minutes a night (Gasol, Brook Lopez, Greg Monroe, Greg Oden and Gustavo Ayon).

Let’s put Jonas on the higher end of this group and give him 25 minutes a night, allowing for occasional foul trouble but occasional games where he is playing well and remains in longer than might be expected. Let’s also give him 75 games, assuming a few nicks and scrapes, since only three centers played a full 82 games in their rookie year the past four years. This would give Jonas 1875 minutes, leaving us with 3072.

50 Games of Gray
Gray will likely be limited to spot duty against bulkier centers this season, since he’s not as effective a player as his rotation maters but is the only big body available to coach Dwane Casey other than Jonas. Last year, the average center in the NBA was 6’10” and 251lbs, so let’s assume Gray will only play against those centers greater than 250lbs (for reference, Amir is allegedly 210lbs and Ed is 232, while Gray weighs about what I can bench…270). We’ll also only play him against centers worth gameplanning defense for, so Kendrick Perkins doesn’t register here (it would be silly to match up his all-D, no-O with the same type of player rather than trying to gain an advantage with a more skilled player).

The Eastern Conference teams Gray could be expected to get run against are: Philly (Bynum), Brooklyn (Lopez), Indy (Hibbert), Chicago (Boozer, maybe), Detroit (Drummond and Monroe…what a filthy duo that could be, yikes!), Charlotte (Mullens, maybe), Atlanta (Horford), Washington (Nene, Okafor). There are likely a few others but nobody dangerous enough that you’d find yourself saying “oh shoot, we better play Gray to body him up or he’ll torch us.”

Let’s give Gray 50 games of run, 20 of which he’ll get just 4 minutes in and 30 of which he’ll play 14. This gives him 500 minutes which is less than last year but more than he had received since 2008-09. I know the Republic has some staunch Gray supporters, but I don’t see his value over our other options here, except as defined above.

Ahmed Johnson
The other day I “predicted” Ed Davis and Amir Johnson would merge into one mega-force known as Amed Davison, but Ahmed Johnson is more appropriate because a) he was a WWF wrestler known to be extremely prone to hurting his fellow wrestlers, which is funny, and b) Amir is likely the “bigger” half of the duo in terms of role and should therefore also have a bigger share of the name.

Given Andrea’s 35 MPG, Jonas’ 25 MPG and the spot duty for McGuire/Kleiza and Gray, we’re left with just 2572 minutes for Amir and Ed. We can also add in about 100 minutes for overtime (last year NBA teams played 100.8% of the expected minutes total, a pace of 160 minutes extra for players; we’ll give Amir and Ed 100 of those to be kind. So we’ve got 2672 minutes to divide between these two young men who combined for 3087 minutes last year. Obviously, someone’s not going to be happy.

Last year, Amir and Ed had fairly similar statistics. In fact, let’s see if you can guess who is who.

Player A: 23.2 MPG, 51.3% FG, 67% FT, 6.3 PPG, 6.6RPG, 0.6 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 1.0 TOPG, 2.4 FPG, 54.4% TS, 16.7% RebRate, 108 ORtg, 101 DRtg, 3.9 Win Shares
Player B: 24.3 MPG, 57.6% FG, 69% FT, 7.1PPG, 6.4RPG, 0.5SPG, 1.1BPG, 1.5 TOPG, 3.3 FPG, 60% TS, 15.4% RebRate, 109 ORtg, 102 DRtg, 4.0 Win Shares

Having watched the games, and with FG% and foul rate tipping you off, you probably guessed that A is Ed Davis and B is Amir Johnson. But send those stats to a non-Raptor fan friend and see if they can figure it out, or ask who they’d rather have playing the bulk of the minutes? The answer would probably come back relatively split, or with a “who the hell cares, they appear to be equal.”

Now, if the team decided to put their eggs in one player’s basket, and boy is that an awkward sentence, based on our scenarios here said player would receive about 33 MPG. Either player, given those minutes, would probably put up a near double-double with about a block and a half a night, very solid numbers for a third big man in a rotation. Alas, they’ll likely both get minutes and neither will have numbers in that range.

If the preseason is an indication, Johnson appears likely to get more run (they’ve both played 19-20 minutes a game but Johnson has been the first man up). One key reason is that he provides a nice complement to Andrea Bargnani, protecting the paint on defense and allowing Bargnani to not worry about help defense and weak-side blocks, while also playing closer to the rim and grabbing boards on offense, allowing Bargnani to roam. However, Davis appears to be a strong complement as well given his slightly stronger rebounding rates and his equal shot-blocking ability, but Davis seems, to my eye, more limited in his ability to play center despite having a weight edge over Johnson.

It’s difficult to see how this will shake out. Amir is older and has been in the league four years longer, so he ostensibly has less upside to tap into. He also makes more money, which could be a vote in favor of playing him more, but Davis also has just this year and next for the team to make a determinate decision about his future. They are similar players with similar upsides, leaving coach Casey with tough rotation decisions game in and game out.

What would be nice is to do away with the “small ball four” minutes and Aaron Gray’s minutes, which would give them 3472 minutes (a combined 42 minutes a night) to play with. This would be my ideal scenario, but it’s not realistic given the usefulness of Gray and McGuire in certain situations. As it is, and this sure sounds like a cop out, I’d “play the hot hand” so to speak and let the battle for minutes be a season-long motivational tool for both of them. I’d venture Amir will get the greater share given the minutes split of Bargnani/Jonas and his ability to play some center, but this seems like a situation that could be very fluid game to game.

What does the Republic think? Is it time to ditch one and give the minutes to the other? Am I overestimating Jonas’ playing time? Do we send Gray out to sea on a raft, or let him play 20 minutes because it’s hilarious to make jokes about his foot speed and vertical jump?

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Most athletic rookie in the NBA? Maybe. Best rookie beard/suit combo? Definitely.

We’re a little late to the party on this one, but on Sunday, NBA.com released the results of its 11^th annual GM Survey. Like any prognostication piece, this one should be taken with a grain of salt; and, in some ways, general managers have biases that many sportswriters don’t – its no stretch to say that NBA GMs have more friends and enemies spread across the league, where sportswriters are supposed to be neutral (in principle, at least). That said, it’s an interesting opportunity to look into the predictions of people “in the business” in regards to a variety of topics, and it has proven to be fairly accurate in the past (last year, the GMs successfully picked the NBA champions, finalists, and every division winner, though to be fair they didn’t exactly go out on a limb with their guesses).

In regards to the league in general, the results are what you’d expect: Miami is the overwhelming favorite to win the title, LeBron the overwhelming favorite for MVP, Lakers and Thunder favored in the West, etc. (besides one very savvy – or stupid – GM who picked the Nuggets). But, this is a Raptors blog, so let’s focus on the boys in red. What accolades did the NBA’s collective braintrust predict for Coach Casey and his young, promising 2012 squad?

Well, not much, actually. The Raptors were actually the only team in the Atlantic not selected by a single GM to win the division title this season – not surprising considering our young, unproven roster, but surprising in that there are multiple GMs that think Brooklyn or New York will win the division. Call me a pessimist, but when I look at the Nets and Knicks I see two star-power driven teams with serious flaws – Brooklyn on the defensive end, and the Knicks with two ball hogs clogging up the offense and a lot of injury risks. Don’t call it a prediction, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 76ers finish ahead of both teams, assuming Andrew Bynum can keep his head on straight this season (read: no more 3s) and isn’t out for too long.

I was a little surprised that Casey didn’t get any love from the GMs for his defensive improvements, not picking up a single vote in the “best defensive schemes” category. On the surface, it may seem a bit strange to think he’d manage to even steal a single vote from Tom Thibodeau in Chicago, but, then again, he did pick up a “runs the best offense” vote in last year’s survey, so I kind of expected something given the Raptors’ defensive improvement last season, which can be almost entirely attributed to Casey’s influence on the team seeing as it was more or less the same nucleus that finished last in the NBA the year before. Ah well, though; give him another year – if the Raps do manage to become a top 10 defense this year, as some have predicted, then the accolades will follow.

The vast majority of individual Raps mentioned in the survey were our three rookies. Both T-Ross and Acy picked up votes for “most athletic rookie,” which is nice to see and is indicative of the way the Raptors are trying to build the team – as a pressing unit that thrives in the fast break. Acy in particular is an interesting choice: he’s the only 2^nd round pick to get any votes in this category, which is either a nice validation of the Raps’ pick, or proof that black guys with incredible facial hair are just presumed to be uber-athletes. Either way, it’s nice to see that at least one other GM saw something in our second-rounder (enough to say he’s more athletic than Anthony Davis or MKG!). Terrence Ross was hyped as a top-notch athlete pre-draft and was a lottery pick so his selection wasn’t as much of a surprise, but I’m going to take any chance I can get to link to the video of this unbelievable dunk. I could watch that clip all day.

Jonas got a lot of love from GMs around the league, which runs parallel to the buzz we’ve been hearing from other outfits during last years draft and up to today. He was voted the international player most likely to have a breakout season, and also picked up a vote in the “which rookie will be the best player in five years” vote, which might be a little overly optimistic, but the fact that even one GM thinks that Jonas is going to be a better pro than Anthony Davis is cause for celebration, right? I’m carrying a bit more trepidation than that (as are the vast majority of Raptors fans) but the fact that we have a rookie who’s even in the conversation around the league is cause for celebration – I guess the last time we’ve had a rookie this hyped it was Andrea, but his class seems significantly weaker than the one Jonas is entering this year (as much as we can tell before they haven’t played a game, anyway). It’s just nice to have a rook on the team with some hype around the league for once – no wonder those OKC fans seem so happy over there!

T-Ross also got a vote to be the rookie most likely to be a “sleeper” success, which is both good and bad, in my opinion: bad, because our 8^th overall selection should hopefully have a bit more status across the league to not be regarded as a “sleeper,” and good because I get to link to the dunk video again.

The only other Raptors player mentioned in the survey was Kyle Lowry, who picked up a single vote as the most “underrated player acquisition” of the offseason. I might be an eternal optimist here but I think this is one the GMs may have gotten wrong – I have a feeling Lowry’s going to spend the season proving people wrong and early returns seem to demonstrate that he’s going to provide great value for what we gave up for him. He’s the best all-around point guard the Raps have ever had and for him to finish behind Courtney Lee in this poll and tied with the likes of Alexey Shved and Darko Milicic is a joke, though I realize “underrated” is a subjective term and maybe some GMs thought the move was “properly rated”.

For the most part, I suppose the survey reflects the opinion of the Raptors we’ve seen in the U.S. media for the entire summer and preseason – some interesting newcomers, but not a team worth heavily regarding just yet. Hopefully the returning group – none of which were mentioned in any category, by the way, after Bargs and DeRozan both got some votes last year – will be able to use the snubs as motivation for the season and prove some people wrong. Though if the guys aren’t motivated yet by the lack of respect they’ve been getting in preseason preview pieces, I suppose this one isn’t likely to be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

Final game of the preseason is tomorrow night against the Grizzlies. Until then, follow me on Twitter @garretthinchey.

I may not be good at photoshop, but I’m also bad at predictions!

I suppose it’s prediction time now that preseason is wrapping up. Before I get to my predictions for the 2012-13 Toronto Raptors, let’s take a look around the internet and see what others are projecting.

John Hollinger, ESPN
33-49, 12th in East
“If everything goes perfectly fine, maybe Toronto will sneak into the playoffs as the No. 8 seed. But things rarely go perfectly fine.”

Marc Stein, ESPN
23rd in Power Rankings
“There’s quiet optimism north of the border that the Raps can scrap for the East’s No. 8 spot. I’ll just stop at saying that Valanciunas’ unhappy Olympics (and likely slow NBA start) won’t discourage me at all about his promise.”

ESPN The Magazine
40-42, 9th in East
“Deeper isn’t enough. Lock up Bargnani and new point guard Kyle Lowry and who puts the ball in the hole? Toronto was 29th in offensive rating last year. There is, of course, vague hope in youth.”

Bradford Doolittle, Basketball Prospectus
(note: from August, September update behind paywall)
42-40, 9th in East
“Head coach Dwayne Casey’s team will stress defense, and if DeMar DeRozan’s productivity starts to match his raw talent, the Raptors might be poised for a playoff run.”

TeamRankings.com
39-42, 10th in East (with only 81 games, apparently)
N/A

Wages of Wins
45-37, 4th in East
“hahaha” – everyone

ESPN Conglomerated Rankings (100 people surveyed)
32-50, 11th in East
“Toronto’s a team that could threaten with the 8 spot. Addition of Lowry, Ross and Valanciunas adds much-needed defensive help.”

Zach Lowe, Grantland
9th/10th in East
“Bonus Raptors prediction: The Raptors will make a push for a top-10 ranking in points allowed per possession, a remarkable potential turnaround for a team that was an embarrassing dead last — with a bullet — just two seasons ago.”

Eric Koreen, National Post
31-37 wins
“I’d say the Raps’ sweet spot is between 31-37 wins, in relation to the@johnhollinger prediction.”
(Note from Blake: C’mon E-Ko, narrow it down!)

Ryan Wolstat, Toronto Sun
37-45
“I might be a bit high with that prediction, as injuries likely will happen. But 34-38 is the range I see for the Raptors.”

—-
And now, for the most important prediction of all…mine. Put it on the record and file it away for constant harassment later…

The Toronto Raptors will finish 38-44 to place 9th in the Eastern Conference.

I think the team is going to be a top-10 unit defensively based on the personnel additions and continued improvement under coach Dwane Casey.

I think the team’s 29th-ranked offense will get into the low-20s or high teens thanks to the addition of Lowry, a full season of Bargnani, and DeRozan committing full-time to getting to the line.

I think Jonas Valanciunas will finish tied for second in Rookie of the Year voting with Damian Lillard, who will be the top rookie scorer but will also lose out to Anthony Davis.

I don’t think any Raptor makes the All-Star team, but Kyle Lowry will be listed among the top snubs (or possibly get a nod as an injury replacement).

I think Jose Calderon will remain a Raptor for the whole season.

I think Linas Kleiza will not. Jonas will be just fine.

I think Terrence Ross will struggle to earn playing time in the first half of the season before figuring out his role and settling in as an adequate three-point shooter and above-average wing defender.

I think DeMar DeRozan will continue to drive me mad with long-twos but will crack the top-10 with 6.5 free throw attempts per game, replacing some of those mid-range jumpers.

I think Ed Davis and Amir Johnson will morph into one super-big named Amed Davison who will average 15-and-12 with two blocks a game. He/it will still lose minutes to Aaron Gray against centers over 250lbs.

John Lucas will play well in a limited role and be the subject of trade rumors that won’t come to fruition. He’ll be the unquestioned PG2 heading into next season.

Quincy Acy, Alan Anderson, Dominic McGuire and Landry Fields will also all exist, though I have no predictions for them.

Overall, I couldn’t be more excited for the season. It seems silly after years of ineptitude and when the team’s upside appears to be first round playoff fodder, but it’s basketball, and there are actual things to look forward to. I’ve loved watching Kyle Lowry in preseason games so I can only imagine how much I’ll enjoy it when the games matter; Jonas Valanciunas might be up and down, but his intensity and potential will be reason enough to tune in for every game; And despite their polarity among the Republic, the whole season will be a chance to pass “final” judgment on DeRozan and Bargnani and the type of players they’ll settle in as.

Strap in for what should be a long, arduous and exciting season that maybe, just maybe, will have us all discussing some playoff basketball in the end.

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Wrap
The Toronto Raptors continued their hot preseason on Monday, defeating the visiting Milwaukee Bucks 104-95, pushing their record to 5-1 in friendlies.

Of course, preseason results mean little, and the game was not without its warts. Turnovers, in particular, were a crucial problem for a sloppy Raptors outfit, enraging head coach Dwane Casey and causing him to more or less throw out the result in post-game comments. The 19 turnovers didn’t come exclusively by way of sloppy passes or miscommunication, as the Raptors also committed five offensive fouls and had an additional two loose ball fouls negate team rebounds.

Despite the somewhat uncoordinated showing in terms of ball control, the Raptors looked every bit an impressive offense otherwise. The team shot 45.5% including 45% on threes (9/20) and also got to the line 35 times (25/35). The fact that the team was able to overcome 19 miscues and still score 104 points is a testament to their shooting and aggression on the night. The 11 offensive rebounds also didn’t hurt, leading to 12 second chance points and adding to the Raptors’ 49-40 rebounding edge.

But the carelessness and some poor defense through three quarters almost let this game get away. Trailing by three heading into the final frame, the Raptors took over with a 30-18 fourth quarter advantage, taking the lead for good with eight minutes to go.

Jonas
I’m burying the lede a bit here, because the big story for us Raptor fans is probably the glimpse of the future that Jonas Valanciunas provided in the victory. While DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry led the way in the boxscore, with the latter in particular taking over in the fourth quarter, my eyes were consistently drawn to The Lethaluanian. This is probably in part due to the fact that this was only the second Jonas game I’ve been able to watch this preseason, or the fact that he spent a lot of time on camera – that tends to happen when you’re living at the free throw line. Valanciunas finished just one of three shooting but managed 10 points by hitting eight of 10 at the charity stripe. He also added eight rebounds, showing a nose for battling for balls he may not have started in the best position to grab, and a steal that was really him just scooping up a loose ball that tipped off of DaLOLmbert’s stone hands.

Perhaps most impressively, though, were the four blocked shots. Right off the bat he blocked DaLOLmbert, only to have Canadian Sam put in the second attempt. Jonas then travelled, but rather than get frustrated he pocketed it for motivation for a few plays later when he would stuff a Tobias Harris dunk attempt. With just seconds remaining in the first half, Valanciunas pinned an Ilyasvoa layup attempt, leading to a buzzer beating attempt for the team. Finally, early in the third Jonas blocked another Harris shot in close. While there are those concerned with him aggressively pursuing blocks, given the foul trouble we’re all assuming will come with a rookie big, Valanciunas showed great timing and instincts on each of these blocks. He also happened to only pick up a pair of fouls in 28 minutes of play, marking his lowest foul-per-minute rate of his young career. It’s a positive not just for his potential as a shot blocker, but also to reaffirm for him that he can attack opposing players without being timid, a notion that was also hammered home when he was trusted to play with five fouls late in the Knicks game last Friday.

For what it’s worth, I also noted a couple of times in my game notes when Jonas’ presence, especially as a dive man, caused a disruption for the defense. Three of his five trips to the line came as the dive man on pick-and-rolls (his basket came on a jump-hook, and his other two trips came on layup attempts), while he also freed Kyle Lowry up for a three with a hard screen at the elbow late in the fourth.

But enough about Jonas…for now. I’m sure I’ll be poetic about him all throughout the season, but if you didn’t get to see this game it’s worth going out of your way to get a look at the highlights, especially the shot-blocking excellence.

Lowry
As for the others, Lowry actually had a very quiet game until the fourth quarter, furthering the narrative on his personality type and role as the team’s potential closer. Lowry had 10 points, three rebounds and an assist in the fourth, giving him 15-5-6 in total for the night. While he committed six turnovers, two of them down the stretch, he was an absolute mad man when push came to shove. Lowry hit a three with 3:29 to go after Andrea Bargnani drove and kicked it out to him, following it up by dishing to Bargnani for three just one play later. He would add a three with a minute to go to extend the lead to five and then hit four free throws in the closing seconds to wrap the game up.

He really didn’t look aggressive early, opting to defer the offense to DeRozan and Bargnani for the most part, and perhaps this will be the design this season – DeMar and Andrea getting there’s early, while Lowry “settles” for controlling the ball in the fourth. Or it’s just a preseason anomaly.

DeRozan
DeRozan was aggressive once again tonight, getting to the line for 10 free throw attempts en route to 21 points on 7/16 shooting. While the shooting efficiency wasn’t great, five of his misses actually came in the paint. Not finishing there is obviously an issue, but it’s better he miss those high-average shots that might eventually be expected to fall rather than miss mid-range jumpers, of which he went 4/8 on.

Bargnani
Bargs didn’t exert himself too much in this one, chipping in with 17 points on some ugly 7/15 shooting without a single free throw attempt. He added three assists but had just four rebounds, basically saving his boxscore line with a couple of threes (3/6).

Amir Johnson’s Wet Jumper
Amir’s shot chart isn’t what you’ll want to see on the regular during the season, but for a game it was an interesting experiment in testing his range. Left open off of a few pick-and-pops and left unguarded a few other times, Amir hit three of six attempts from outside of 18 feet. Overall he had 10 points and four rebounds in just 18 minutes.

The Others
Quincy Acy got the 10th-man minutes in the first half while Ed Davis took on that role in the second half. Acy had three points and three rebounds in his nine minutes while Davis had two points, five rebounds and a dime in his 13 minutes. Acy showed some nice hustle with a put-back and another tap-out on an offensive board, but he also showed his downside with two turnovers (including a moving screen) and a loose ball foul. Davis showed nice range with a jumper and also extended a possession with an offensive board, taking far less off the table than Acy. The role of fourth big seems to be Davis’ to lose, with Acy in the D-League and Gray utilized against bulky pivots.

Landry Fields was quiet with four points, seven rebounds and a pair of assists in 27 minutes, focusing his energy on the defensive end and off the ball on offense. He’s a smart player and his contributions won’t always show up, as has been pounded into your head by now. His backup, Double-A, had 10 points but took 10 shots to get there, showing an awfully quick trigger for someone who should be aiming to play mistake-free ball right now.

Finally, Jose Calderon added six assists and only took three shots (aka what will come to be known as The Standard for him in his backup role), while John Lucas was John Lucas, scoring eight points on seven shots and adding four boards and three helpers. Calderon is secure in his role, and with Ross out sick Lucas showed he can play spot minutes at shooting guard effectively against smaller lineups. It’s important to note that this game wasn’t really a check-mark for the two-point guard offense as the Bucks hardly have what you would call a big guard in their rotation (Brandon Jennings, Monta Ellis, and Beno Udrih played the bulk of the minutes).

DNPs
Terrence Ross sat with the flu. Aaron Gray, Linas Kleiza, and Dominic McGuire were unexpectedly kept on the bench, possibly because Casey wants to split up the minutes between the sets of bench players in the last couple of games, but possibly also tipping his hand as to the eventual rotation. With John Lucas playing exclusively at shooting guard, it pushes Anderson’s minutes to the three, limiting the minutes available to Kleiza and McGuire. Of course, with Ross out and likely a rotation player, tonight’s minute distribution could have meant nothing at all. Who knows with preseason games?

Rest in Peace
Jerel McNeal and Chris Wright were waived after the game, trimming the roster to 16 with Jamaal Magloire likely being the final cut eventually. There was no word on if McNeal and Wright would be asked to try and head the D-League (hopefully the Bakersfield Jam), though it’s a likely option considering neither got the chance to impress another team during the preseason.

What’s Next
The final preseason game comes Friday in Memphis, and it’s just over a week from the opener on Halloween. I’ll double back tomorrow for some more generic preseason chatter.

Oops
I realize I haven’t said anything about the Bucks. Who cares, right? That’s not my attitude in the regular season, but I’m 1600-words deep about a preseason game (yikes, sorry). Dunleavy was great, Ellis is a chucker, Ilyasova is Turkish Josh Hartnett/Zombie Ashton Kutcher/Basketball Forrest Griffin and is more or less awesome. There.

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Grabbing a nap on the floor rather than the bench.

There were some who were surprised when the Toronto Raptors added defensive specialist utility man Dominic McGuire to the roster late in the offseason. As the 15th man under contract, his signing essentially signified the end of the Raptors’ offseason, unless trades or an unexpected waive of a player occurred.

So you can forgive that same group for raising an eyebrow when the Raptors followed that move up by signing Jamaal Magloire to a player contract rather than a coaching contract of some sort, bringing the roster up to 16. The signing meant that, even if it was Magloire just transitioning from the floor to the bench, someone from the group wasn’t going to make the team.

And then, while not an uncommon move for NBA teams, the Raptors signed a 17th and an 18th member to the training camp squad, inking Jerel McNeal and Chris Wright to non-guaranteed deals. These are the standard, likely boiler-plate training camp contracts players sign if they either think they have a chance to make a team with an open roster spot or are resigned to playing in the U.S. for the year and are trying to catch the attention of scouts around the league.

The Candidates
McGuire, most recently of the Golden State Warriors, is without a doubt an NBA caliber player. A solid defender at multiple positions, McGuire is also a good rebounder and facilitator, although his reputation as a zero in the scoring department precedes him just about everywhere. With 316 games of NBA experience with four different teams in just five years, signing with the Raptors may officially make McGuire a journeyman, but one with the tools to remain in that niche role for some time.

Magloire, a Raptor last season as well, is on his last legs as an NBA player. Once an All Star (to the chagrin of some), Magloire was mostly a public relations signing, becoming the first Canadian to play for the Raptors. While still just 34, Magloire hasn’t had an appreciable impact on the floor since 2006-07 with Portland. Magloire was more player-coach than player last season, and some expected him to transition to coaching immediately after last year.

McNeal, a Marquette grad with nine minutes of NBA preseason experience with the Los Angeles Clippers in 2009-10, seemed from the outset to be a longshot to make the team. While the shooting guard depth isn’t sensational, he would have had to pass too many players to make an impact, and his only real chance was outplaying Alan Anderson and convincing the team it was worthwhile to waive Anderson’s 2012-13 contract. Had he gone gangbusters, this was maybe a slight possibility, but it seems he was simply an extra body for practice. For McNeal, coming back to North America after a few seasons abroad, it seems likely he’ll hang around and try to catch on with another team or a D-League affiliate in hopes of being a convenient, relatively experienced, low-cost call-up.

Wright is in a similar situation, but with a potentially brighter outlook given he fit a position of greater need at the small forward spot. Wright also has some more recent and reliable scouting tape, having played 24 games with the Warriors last year and spending the rest of the year dominating in the D-League to the tune of 18-and-9 nightly. Word from camp has also been that Wright seems to be a great human being, for whatever that’s worth.

I feel I should include Quincy Acy and Alan Anderson in this section as well, although their situations appear more clear. Acy, a second round pick, was not thought to be a guarantee to make the club after the draft but was signed to a multi-year deal, effectively sealing his spot. Double-A, who signed a one-year deal after a semi-successful 17-game audition after four years out of the league, seemed relatively assured as well as the last wing, although McGuire’s signing muddied that somewhat.

So with 18 bodies, some thought it would be an interesting preseason in terms of how the minutes would shake out and if there would be competition at the end of the roster. As it is, that hasn’t been the case.

Preseason Minutes
Minutes have been hard to come by for these four men fighting for the 15th roster spot. Anderson and McGuire have received regular run, but Acy and the others have been used sparingly. While the preseason isn’t always a useful looking glass for the season, minutes are an important “stat” for any players on the roster bubble, and can highlight the difference between a practice body and someone in the running for a job.

Game 1
In the first exhibition game against Real Madrid, the Spanish club kept it close until the closing minutes, leaving Dwane Casey to use his main rotation players more than I expected for the first outing. While McGuire logged a busy nine minutes (two rebounds, an assist, a block, a turnover and three fouls) and Double-A played 14 (with seven points on 2/7 shooting with an assist), Acy saw just 19 seconds at the tail end of the game. Acy was a star compared to McNeal, Wright and Magloire though, who all kept their warmups on for the duration of the contest.

Game 2
The first of two against the Pistons saw Casey go 14-deep with his rotation, including all of the anticipated regulars except an injured Kyle Lowry. Anderson again played 14 minutes (8-3-3 with two turnovers and a foul) and McGuire logged eight (three assists, two steals, a rebound and a turnover). Acy saw four minutes of action, chipping in with a block and a foul, while Magloire, Wright and McNeal all remained in their cute little track suits.

Game 3
The second game against the Pistons was more of the same, although this time Acy kept his buddies Magloire and Wright company on the bench for all 48 minutes. Anderson stayed on the floor for 27 minutes (9-5-1 with a steal, two turnovers and a foul), while McGuire actually sat the entirety of the game. Jerel McNeal saw his first action, grabbing six minutes of spot duty with a pair of assists, a foul and a turnover, missing his only shot attempt.

Game 4
Aaron Gray joined the regulars with the night off for this game against the Wizards, keeping Acy, Magloire, Wright and McNeal company and leaving just McGuire and Anderson to grab minutes. Anderson played 13 (5-2-1 with two fouls and three steals) while McGuire played 11 (two points, two assists and a block).

Game 5
Ed Davis got the night off due to some soreness but it didn’t clear a path for Magloire or Acy, who remained glued to the wood. McNeal and Wright also sat, once again leaving just Double-A and McGuire to compete, potentially for an active roster spot, even. Anderson tallied 14 more minutes (4-3-1 with two fouls and a turnover) while McGuire played seven (two points, an assist and two turnovers).

Prognosis
With two games remaining and the regulars all relatively healthy, the time may have passed for any of the players other than Anderson and McGuire to make an impact. In the final preseason tune-up on Friday, Coach Casey may throw McNeal and Wright a bone and give them a few minutes, thus allowing them to showcase themselves while also protecting the rotation players for the regular season.

It seems pretty evident how the end of the roster is going to work out at this time, unless there are some surprises between now and the opener on Halloween. It seems likely that Wright and McNeal will be cut, perhaps with an invitation to join the Raptors’ D-League affiliate in Bakersfield (the Raptors would not have a claim to either player, but could keep them “in the family,” so to speak, in case a roster spot opened up and they had yet to be scooped up by another team). And it seems a near certainty that Magloire will “officially” retire and join the team as an assistant coach in some capacity.

As for the others, logic would hold that Acy will be sent to the D-League so that he can get playing time rather than being just a practice body. The Raptors utilized this option with Solomon Alabi at times last year, although they haven’t always been aggressive in this regard, probably since they share an affiliate with other teams (and therefore don’t have direct control over minutes, coaching, system, etc). With that said, it seems a better route for Acy’s development.

McGuire and Anderson, then, appeared tagged for duty on the inactive list, since you can only dress 12 of your 15 players on a given night. Even though both have seen appreciable playing time in the preseason, it seems unlikely either has usurped one of the 12 players ahead of them for the time being. They will be there in the event that injuries strike, and it’s perhaps possible that Anderson could be called on in the event an extra shooter is required one night, or McGuire if there is a particularly tough defensive matchup on the wing.

A lot can happen over the course of the season, so a D-League assignment or a spot on the inactive list is anything but a death knell. Instead, these are just how the roster battle appears to break down at this moment in time.

Potential Roster Breakdown
Starters: Lowry, DeRozan, Fields, Bargnani, Johnson/Valanciunas
Rotation: Calderon, Johnson/Valanciunas, Davis, Ross/Kleiza
Bench: Gray, Lucas, Kleiza/Ross
Inactive List: McGuire, Anderson
D-League: Acy
Waived: Wright, McNeal
Coaching but ready to play: Magloire, Boogie Williams

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KLow’s heart, no doubt.

I’ve gotta say, just two preseason games into his tenure as a Raptor, I love having Kyle Lowry on my favorite team.

A lot of terms have been thrown around to describe him so far, most of them clichés: he’s a gamer, a bulldog, a gym rat, etc. And it’s great hype for the team and I’m sure it makes for good quotes and even better copy. But the best part is that none of it seems to be hyperbole.

When I mentioned to someone with the Raptors that I loved hearing how Lowry “never loses in practice,” they confirmed that the “uber-competitiveness” is present in practice as much as we’ve been led to believe. They also noted he happens to be an extremely intelligent basketball player (this comment, of course, goes beyond simple on-court decision making).

If that doesn’t get you excited to watch him for 82 games, I’m not sure you’re much of a basketball fan. Sure, some of the publicity could be spin being put on by the team, hoping that this image as an intense winner can cover up his issues with coach Kevin McHale in Houston, but it’s also equally possible it’s all true. And you can’t really just make up demeanor, it’s evident for 48 minutes a night when the lights turn on.

So far on the court, the spin also looks to be the truth. Normally preseason games come with the caveat that they don’t matter, coaches are messing with rotations, etc, but the game being played is still basketball. The fact that Lowry didn’t want to lose a preseason game to the Knicks is encouraging, even to those who may have cringed at him diving for a loose ball less than a week returned from an injury absence (although it was a strain, not a contact injury).

This intense late-game competitiveness in the preseason is even better when you consider that Lowry was nearly inconsolable while out injured. He found it difficult to talk with the media, frustrated he couldn’t play, and went from sitting in the stands to joining in huddles in a preseason bout against the Pistons. Like Jonas Valanciunas, this is not someone happy with sitting by and getting a few days off while his teammates work their tails off.

For a team that has been cursed with superstars and leaders who at times have seemed to care more about stats and image and pasta than winning basketball games (Vince Carter, Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani), this type of aggressive win-first leader is a godsend.

He’s probably also a kindred spirit with hard-working, defense-first coach Dwane Casey. He’s a great fit with the coach’s mentality and has the potential to be an appropriate extension of the coach on the floor, leading the charges when it’s time for a big stop or a key basket.

In Houston last year, Lowry took 513 shots. He took 35 of those in the last six minutes of fourth quarters when the score was within five points and another 12 in overtime periods. Overall, he took a field goal attempt every three minutes when he was on the floor overall and 20.6% of Rockets field goal attempts overall. But this rate increased to a field goal attempt every 2.4 minutes and 25% of Rockets field goal attempts when the game was close and late (based on my arbitrary standards mentioned above). 82games instead uses the last five minutes within five points, and using their “Clutch” stats Lowry rated well, also. But the “clutch” stats don’t even matter here, because my point is more that this is a player who clearly thrives on having the ball in his hands when the game matters the most.

We’ll see as the season progresses whether or not our best option is with the ball in Lowry’s hands late. More importantly for now is that we have someone who wants the ball in that situation, which should help to take the pressure off of Bargnani in terms of both defensive attention and fan vitriol.

There is a lot left to learn about this year’s Raptor team. We don’t yet know how players will respond to Lowry compared to the ever-sharing Calderon, how the wing minutes will shake out, or how Jonas will adapt. All we have to go from right now is media spin and just 240 minutes of play, only 192 of which were against NBA teams, and only 54 of which have had Lowry on the floor.

With so much still left to determine, a few things have at least become clear – Kyle Lowry loves basketball, Kyle Lowry wants to win, and Kyle Lowry is going to be a treat for all of us to watch and cheer for this season.

I, for one, couldn’t be more excited to call him our own.

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Note from Blake – Please welcome Garrett to the RR team. This was a pre-season tryout of sorts for him as well…we’ll see if he makes the Opening Day roster here.

Really a tale of two games tonight as the Raptors went down big early, turned things around, and cruised the rest of the way. It’s a pretty big win, as far as pre-season is concerned: not only was it against a division rival but it was also nationally broadcast (on TSN2, but still). I don’t know if it was the sold-out crowd, the pre-game poutine, or just that the Knicks really aren’t that good, but for the final two-thirds of the game tonight we saw the Raptors squad that we’d all been quietly hoping these guys could be.

Lowry was excellent from start to finish. He ended up with 17, along with 5 boards and 4 assists, was a ridiculous 5 for 6 from three, and put a nail in the coffin for any remaining point guard controversy arguments in TO. Nobody expects the threes to come every night but if he can explode like this from time to time it’ll give us an offensive cog that is effective from both inside and outside, something we don’t really have at the moment (depending on how you feel about Bargnani’s post-up game).

The calf injury didn’t seem to slow up Andrea much, he played nearly 33 minutes, most on the team after DD. He did take a ridiculous 21 shots to get his 20 points but rebounded well (the Raps will take 7 boards from him any night of the week) and played better defense on Amare then the stats suggest. Even though Stoudemire was 8 for 11 on the night, a couple of those were uncontested dunks on missed switches – an issue, certainly, but when Andrea got into position he was reasonably effective on D.

The Knicks’ early run against the Raptors second unit largely happened between the free-throw lines on both sides of the court – we couldn’t make a shot, and they couldn’t miss. The Raps seemed slow on their defensive switches and the Knicks, particularly Jason Kidd, were doing a great job of finding the open man. Jose in particular looked lost in the second, it seemed like every pass he threw was a couple feet too high and every shot he took was a missed three (including an airball) – he played the majority of the second quarter and had a halftime line of 0/0/0, though he did pick it up in the second half (we’ll get to that in a second).

About halfway through the quarter, Casey had seen enough and started working the starters back in (besides JV, who had gotten in early foul trouble) and the team really started to take off, tying it up by halftime on a fluky bank 3 by Lowry – a run that was really triggered by the fast break. This team is deep and athletic and runs like this are going to be key for them this season, but key to them is playing tough exterior defence and not sagging, particularly against a team like the Knicks which is consistently dangerous from 3. More turnovers outside of the post = more fast breaks = more points for the Raps.

Amir really shined during the second quarter. He may have bricks for hands but his hustle, defense, and ability to stay out of foul trouble really kept the team together during the Knicks’ surge, triggered the fast-break on numerous occasions, and kept Ed on the bench for the whole game. We’re not going to see this version of Amir every night but it must be reassuring for Coach Casey to see this kind of game from the guy who, in theory, is our first big off the bench (playing out of position, nonetheless).

In the second half, we saw the Jose/Lucas combination once again. Blake wrote an excellent post a couple of days ago analyzing the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of a two-point guard matchup on defense, but against ball-stopping teams like the Knicks, who run their offense through forwards no matter who is out there in the other jerseys, the impact was negligible and their offensive contributions really shined. Lucas is a real firebrand off the bench – it’s too bad he wasn’t 4 inches taller because he’d be pushing DD for minutes at the other guard if he were. As it stands, he’s great late-game offense off the bench and has been very effective thus far in limited time (12 points in 9 minutes tonight).

In the words of Denny Green, the Knicks were who we thought they were: a star-driven team without much in the way of bench strength. Amare had a decent game and ‘Melo was effective in stretches but for the most part the two simply took turns dribbling into the post and either turning the ball over or drawing fouls. Fields worked hard on Carmelo all night – he still got his but had to work for it, which is the kind of consistency we need from him on a nightly basis. On paper, teams with elite small forwards are the Raptors’ kryptonite and Fields will be key on those nights.

The fourth quarter saw all the starters return and put the game away after a brief surge from Carmelo. For the final six minutes or so of the game, the unit was clicking in every way. In particular, one sequence saw Lowry dive on the floor the floor for a loose ball, which was tipped to Fields, who made a great pass to DeRozan for a highlight real dunk. The next time up the floor, Jonas received the ball in the low post, backed Chandler down and kicked it out to Andrea, who made a 3 from the top of the key. Now THAT’S the sum of parts being greater than the whole.

JV had a decent game tonight despite some early foul trouble – he was called for two offensive fouls in the first quarter and he’s really going to have to be careful here with the league’s referees emphasizing the moving screen. That said, he managed to keep playing tough with five fouls in the fourth quarter, picked up 10 boards and had a statement block on Amare late in the game. The kid plays stronger than he looks but there’s a yin and yang dynamic to his game – he lost Tyson Chandler for an uncontested dunk immediately following his block on Stoudemire – but the potential is screaming through the screen and if he consistently gives that kind of effort those lapses will start to disappear sooner rather than later.

Demar had an… interesting game. His hustle was evident – he picked up two offensive boards in the first half that he had no business recovering – and in the first half he was extremely effective in getting to the hoop, though, once again, we didn’t see anything from him in the way of outside shooting.

Someone must have said something to him in the locker room though, because in the second half he started shooting with no regard for the situation. He did manage to sneak in a 3 but for the most part this really limited his effectiveness on the offensive end. It’s great to see him taking shots but he has to realize that there are nights where the matchups call for him to take the ball to the hoop – the Knicks started James White at SG, for God’s sake – and overpower opposing players with his athleticism. He certainly contributed to the win but I can’t help but feel like he should have had a huge game tonight.

As for the other Raptors, McGuire played an effective few minutes; Anderson had a strong effort guarding Anthony; Kleiza did Kleiza things; Ross had a rough 5 minutes, missing two open looks, but did score on a nice backdoor cut, Gray got in for all of a minute; and Davis did a great job modeling the Raps’ warmups.

All in all, though, a very promising night where we saw a lot of potential – positive on our side and negative for the Knicks, who just scream overrated at this point.

Next game is Monday night against the Bucks; two more pre-season games until we do it for real.

Try sharing, guys.

With the acquisitions of Kyle Lowry and John Lucas this offseason, the Raptors find themselves with three capable point guards all deserving of minutes.

Moving Jose
The end game is pretty clear – Jose Calderon’s $10M expiring contract, experience, and offensive playmaking ability represent a potentially huge chip in the trade market. If Calderon could be used as a piece in a package to bring back an elite wing player, Bryan Colangelo would likely pull the trigger in a second. However, this scenario has been analyzed to death and nothing has materialized.

In addition, though, the league’s current CBA is structured such that teams with greater flexibility built into their financial structure have somewhat of an advantage in that they may be able to leverage this flexibility to take advantage of other teams. As the luxury tax penalties become more and more prohibitive over the next couple of years, there is the potential for teams to have to dump salary without getting fair value back, so the fact that the Raptors have staggered their contract lengths and have a $10M chunk coming off of the books this summer is important. That is, if Jose can’t be moved as part of a deal for a difference maker, it’s equally as logical to hold on to him and create further financial flexibility rather than trading him for the sake of “getting something.”

With that said, it seems there is somewhere in the neighbourhood of a 50/50 chance that the team plays out the season with all three point guards. Last year the three combined for 81 minutes per game on different teams, so someone, if not two of them, is going to see a significant minutes cut. With only 48 minutes available per game at the point guard spot, there simply isn’t enough playing time unless injuries strike (in which case the Raptors are well-suited to handle it).

Casey on 2-PG Looks
With all three guards performing well, Dwane Casey recently broached the idea of playing two of them together at times to get them all more minutes. It makes sense at first glance, since the Raptors’ biggest weakness is at the wing spots, so shifting a point guard to shooting guard allows for fewer wings to see minutes while affording more minutes to the point guards.

But does it make sense to play two point guards together?

Ask anyone and they will likely give some variation of the answer “sure, in limited minutes” or “yeah, with the right matchup.” Some, of course, would strictly give a Stone Cold Steve Austin “hell yeah” or a Daniel Bryan/Kane “hell no,” but wrestling references aside, it seems there is some common understanding of the benefits and drawbacks of the two-point guard lineup.

Offense vs. Defense
Primarily, running two-point guards will improve your offense and hurt your defense. Again, this is based on match-ups to some degree, and the type of point guards a team employs, but I think anecdotally most would agree a two-guard look sacrifices defense for improved offense.

Obviously on offense, two guards allows for better ball-handlers, generally better shooters, and better creators, improving the versatility and flexibility of offensive sets. To wit, running Kyle Lowry and Jose Calderon together greatly improves the team’s three-point shooting and gives the team two capable ball-handlers to run the pick-and-roll. At the same time, Calderon is a relatively unathletic 6’3” who struggles defensively against point guards and is not big or strong enough to guard shooting guards, while Kyle Lowry is a great defender of point guards but at an even 6’0” would struggle to handle shooting guards. You can make the same narrative substituting John Lucas, a 5’11” high-effort defender, for either Lowry or Calderon and still come to the same conclusion on offense or defense.

Without a point guard capable of defending shooting guards, a two-point guard lineup is likely to get torched by an opposition playing a more standard lineup. But does the offense make up for it?

Recent Raptors 2-PG Usage
This is something the Raptors have toyed with a fair amount over the past few years, playing Jose Calderon with Jarrett Jack, T.J. Ford, and Jerryd Bayless at times, since the team always seems to have two point guards on the roster that are “too good to be a backup.” The table below shows the On/Off Court Rating for Raptors point guards since 2007-08 (I know Forderon existed before this, but this was the cut-off year for something I did later).

Method
This doesn’t really tell us much alone, but what I did next was use Basketball-Reference’s Play Index + tool. Using all lineups that the team used for at least 25 possessions between 2007-08 and 2011-12, I pulled the “Net Points” (simply points scored minus points allowed) for all of them. This gave me 305 different lineup combinations, or about 61 per year, on average, that the team used for at least 25 possessions (roughly a quarter of a game).

Then, excluding Leandro Barbosa (who is a shooting guard, though he is sometimes described as a “combo guard”), I identified every one of these lineup combinations where the Raptors used two point guards. There were 18 such lineups, so, since 2007-08 the Raptors have employed 18 different two-point guard lineups for at least 25 possessions.

Analysis
My goal was to compare how these lineups did against regular Raptors lineups over the time frame. I don’t want to get too stat-heavy, because I’ve already laid out my hypothesis based on watching the games – offense will improve, defense will suffer. I simply wanted some stats to back this up. So, the table below compares the Raptors’ overall performance with their performance in two-point guard lineups over the time frame.

Here we basically confirm what I laid out initially – two-point guard lineups are strong offensively and terrible defensively. (Note: eFG% was all that was available for this analysis. TS% would have been better, but I am relatively certain we’d get the same result.) Every single two-point guard lineup performed below the league average (and almost always below the team season average) in terms of an opponent’s effective field goal percentage, while they, with some exceptions, outperformed those marks on offense.

In terms of overall value to the team, we see that our two smallest sample seasons, 2007-08 and 2008-09, which both had less than a full game’s worth of data, perform well. However, as a whole over the past five years, Raptors two-point guard lineups have been net negatives, seeing the Raptors outscored by four points per 100 possessions compared to two and a half points per 100 possessions overall.

2012-13
It’s difficult to extrapolate these results with certainty for this year’s team (without me diving into an insanely heavy data dump and lineup analysis), since Lucas and Lowry weren’t on any of these teams. However, Calderon is a common thread, and it’s safe to say the team hasn’t played well when he shares the court with another point guard.

To make sure I wasn’t missing something, I looked at Lowry and Lucas’ 82games profiles to see if there were any heavily-used lineup combinations they were a part of with two point guards on the floor (specifically, Lucas-Rose or Lowry-Dragic). It turns out the Lowry-Dragic combination was occasionally effective depending on who else was on the floor with them (though they were all smallish samples, and they were no more effective than Lowry-only lineups). Lucas rarely played with another guard.

Of course, Casey isn’t going to have much choice but to occasionally play a pair of point guards together. As I mentioned, 48 minutes just isn’t enough for these three, and the offensive potential of such lineups will make it tantalizing as a change-of-pace option, especially against slower units.

There’s nothing wrong with changing looks and spreading the minutes around in this manner, just don’t expect much success defensively or the move to be a long-term solution.

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