Indiana, the hotbed of basketball. Also, the hotbed of a team that’s lost 11 of 13, is 3rd worst in the conference and lost by 43 to the Knicks a few nights back. Our man T.J Ford has been dropped from the rotation in favor of Travis Diener and rookie second-rounder A.J. Price (yes, it’s that bad). Here’s what our man from 8 Points 9 Seconds thinks of him:

When Larry Bird traded JO’s contract for TJ Ford and a draft pick (which turned out to be Roy Hibbert), I don’t think that even Bird saw him as a long-term solution. TJ was supposed to be someone who would be a stop-gap solution for a faux-rebuilding franchise and look good playing in Jim O’Brien’s quick-shooting, spread offense. The main criticism is against TJ Ford is that he was never a true point guard — which is probably why Jose Calderon seemed to be the much better option for the Raptors — but that was not something I expected to be a major issue in Indiana under O’Brien. Jimmy’s 2003 Celtics that went to the Eastern Conference Finals flourished with shooters on the wing that opened the penetrating lanes for an even-older-and-slower Kenny Anderson to either get to the cup and finish or kick out for open jumpers. I expected TJ to not only embrace but thrive in that a similar environment here in Indy with guys like Danny Granger, Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy all being dangerous shooters.

But it never happened.

From day one, TJ never fit in here particularly well. Lil’ Dunleavy played de facto point-forward in 2007-08 and between that, injuries and the Jarrett Jack acquisition the following year, he has really never really spent any extended stretch of the season as the guy that the Pacers relied on to run the offense.

And just like Jack took his job last year, many Pacer fans expected Earl Watson to see plenty of time starting this season. Ford entered the year as the starter by reputation and he certainly had every opportunity to engrave that in stone, but his erratic play, inexplicable tendency to turn the ball over via the “help … I’m lost in the air” jump pass, turnstile defense and inability to make an outside shot (he’s 1 for 28 from behind the arc this year and didn’t even hit that one until December 14), left O’Brien with really no choice but to try something else.

He banished TJ to third string and out of the rotation to the point that Ford has now received DNP-CDs in his the last five games.

And with Earl Watson continuing his regular “adequate-if-unspectacular” self and AJ Price starting to look like the aggressive, scoring point that Jack gave the Pacers last season, it’s looking less and less likely that TJ will be playing much in the weeks to come.

It’s a shame, too, because I still don’t understand exactly why he can’t play well consistently. I guess that’s just his thing. When he’s going well, he has been a very good scorer and the Pacers could desperately use his ability to get to the bucket (even though he misses more layups than anyone I’ve seen in an Indy uniform in a long time).

If the past is a guide, we can probably expect him to re-emerge in mid-February and have a few 25-point games — and perhaps even hit a game winner or two. Then, he’ll turn back into a pumpkin as he penetrates to the rim, jumps into the air and throws a perfect pass to the other team.

This game falls under the category of “supposed to win” just like the Philly one. The uninterested first half in Philadelphia was a testament to how unfocused and overconfident this team can be, and it’s because there’s no internal leadership which can keep things in check and everybody playing the game the right way night in and night out. It’s an intangible that’s been missing for some time in Toronto and we see these problems surface too often for my liking. Having said that, I believe the Raptors will come right at Indiana out of the gates for two reasons: 1) Philly is fresh in their memories and 2) They want to forget the Boston loss.

Troy Murphy’s the guy I like to keep an eye on when playing the Pacers, he’s got a habit of getting 20 rebounds against us and is one of the few big men who can give Andrea Bargnani a taste of his own medicine. The guy averaged 16/15 against us last year, both well over his season average. Indiana’s offense is rated 27th in the NBA and they are a poor 3-point shooting team at 32.8%. The defensive rating is 16th in the NBA, of note is that they play at the 2nd highest pace in the NBA. Those of you who are in love with Amir Johnson should know that the pick we traded away in the O’Neal deal, Roy Hibbert, is averaging 10.9/5.9 and actually has a semblance of an offensive game. The two compared.

With Calderon now coming off the bench, Jack, Calderon and Ford will all find themselves in a role they weren’t originally acquired for. Funny how things work out. The PG play against Boston was brutal, Jack failed to get anything on offense and Jose’s defense was predictably bad in the fourth quarter. We needed stops down the stretch and couldn’t get them as Rondo notched the easiest triple-double he’ll ever get. Earl Watson is no Rajan Rondo and their PGs on paper are ripe pickings for ours. Danny Granger will be matched up with Hedo Turkoglu whose play is impossible to predict. Here’s a quote from him after the Boston defeat:

“The way I play, I’ve never been a selfish guy. I’m just trying to play as hard as I can, and get myself going. If I have the ball, I can be more creative with it. For me, I’m running on the side and expecting to be a spot-up guy – you know, it’s hard for me. I can’t really go and grab the ball from Jose or Jack’s hands. I respect those guys – they’re great players. And they’re used to running the team too.”

His frustration is understandable but he’s got to be part of the solution and not just complain to the media, these things need to be taken to the coach’s office and sorted out there, we shouldn’t even be hearing about this. Usually I’m all for blaming the coach for not putting the player in the right circumstance, but Hedo’s to blame here as much as anyone. At $53M he better be figuring things out on his own and demanding the ball in the timeouts and practices instead of taking the backseat to Jack and Jose on offense. The only person turning Hedo Turkoglu into a spot-up shooter is Hedo Turkoglu. Yes, Triano hasn’t exactly catered to his needs and publicly declared him the point-forward, but he shouldn’t need to. We’re dealing with a veteran player here, not a rookie that needs hand-holding.

And finally Bosh, when did he become such a turnover machine? He’s averaging 4.8 turnovers in January and has had 6, 6 and 5 in his last three games. His assist numbers are up from 2.1 to 3.2 between January and December but they’re coming at too high of a cost. He’s got to stop forcing passes into traffic and recognize that not every cut needs to be rewarded, in other words. His presence of mind with the ball has never been the greatest and we’re seeing defenses pressure him after he picks up the dribble with good results. Get rid of the rock ASAP after the double and trust your overpaid teammates to make a play. The podcast discusses the reason for his turnovers, his failure to box-out Kendrick Perkins on that crucial rebound, and a lot more.

This is a bit of a milestone podcast as it’s the 50th one recorded. I went back to the first one and heard myself defending Andrea Bargnani after a 2 rebound effort and criticizing Chris Bosh after a 40+ point game at MSG. Go figure. Joining me are RapsFan and A-Dub as we go through the C**tics fourth quarter, discuss Hedo Turkoglu, the controversial two-guard lineup, the intensity of Bargnani’s resurgence, the Bosh trade rumours, the improved defensive play of our bench, A-Dub’s infatuation with starting Belinelli over DeRozan, Arvydas Sabonis and more. There’s also a mention of the Kardashian sisters and Horace Grant for very valid reasons. You can click the play button below or listen directly in iTunes (39:53 min). You may also download the file (14.02MB).

[audio:http://raptorsrepublic.com/audio/2010-01-11-weekly.mp3]

All three predict a 2-1 week ahead with wins in Indiana and New York, and a home loss to Dallas. RapsFan fears the Knicks as the Raptors will play them after a full four day break.

This came up on the podcast and on Twitter earlier. Is rebounding the main cause of our losses? Judging by watching the games alone, it doesn’t appear to be the case, at least not to the degree it was last year. Situational offense, perimeter defense and aggressive help schemes would rank ahead of rebounding in my book but here are the rebounding numbers for your analysis. We’re 20th in the league in rebounding our misses at 25.56% while being 27th in collecting opponent misses at 71.25%. So we’re a bad defensive rebounding team but not a terrible offensive rebounding unit. Our second-chance points stats say that even though we’re giving up a lot of offensive rebounds, it’s not coming back to kill us. In our 19 losses, only 3 times has the second-chance disparity been 5 or greater. In 8 of those losses, we actually scored more second-chance points than our opponent. It must also be said that we were outrebounded in 14 of our 19 losses and managed to win 7 games in which we were outrebounded. Also, we outrebounded the opponent in 12 of our 19 wins.

It’s no revelation that the better you rebound, the better chance you have of winning. It’s a different thing to say that we’re losing because we’re not rebounding. I submit that even though our defensive rebounding gets a lot of flak, it is not the reason for our .500 record. Our inability to defend is reflective in our league-worst defensive rating of 109.8 which is normalized to consider offensive rebounds; it’s not like we can actually defend but simply give opponents more possessions.

Take a guess who made it to Twitter. Yup, that’s him.

Let’s go Raptors.

Our defense in the second game was very disciplined, sometimes the Raptors hold the other team to a low shooting percentage only because the they missed wide open looks, not so this time. Belinelli’s defense on Hamilton/Gordon got some flak elsewhere but in my eyes he defended him as well as he can, dodging screens by staying on his toes and contesting as well as one can. If Wright’s assist-filled cameo was showcasing for a trade, it worked out well, and his appearance doesn’t necessarily mean DeRozan’s being penalized for his play.

The Nets win was routine but the Hornets win was nothing short of impressive. The talk coming into the game from the Hornets camp was all about revenge for what happened in New Orleans but the Raptors beat them pound-for-pound, bum ankles or not. The game started the trend of Hedo Turkoglu handling the ball more and sharing it equitably with Jarrett Jack, whose great determined play has been the staple of this run. Turkoglu is averaging 7.75 assists in these four games, that’s 3.35 higher than his season average. Is it as simple as Triano figuring out that the obvious thing to do is or is it Jack/Turkoglu being a more suitable combination? Probably a bit of both, but we shouldn’t discount the simple cause-and-effect of Jack giving up the ball early in the shot-clock or initiating whatever action he has to run early.

The Raptors have been tremendous in late shot-clock situations, whether it be Bosh, Turkoglu or Jack taking the initiative to make something out of nothing. The offensive execution was tested against the Hornets and Pistons in fourth quarter situations and we were up to the task. However, the Bobcats’ 3rd ranked and the Magic’s 6th ranked defense awaits and both teams have humiliated us this season, it’ll be very interesting to see how the Raptors respond in both games. The Bobcats hammered us by 35 and we’re 0-3 against the Magic, wins here would signal a true turnaround of the team, not just a warm feeling which is what we have now.

The San Antonio game will be Matt Bonner appreciation night so look forward to him grabbing 7 offensive rebounds and hitting four threes as the fans become utterly confused whether to boo or cheer. The Spurs have won 8 of 10 and there’s not much evidence of Tim Duncan’s apparent decline, he’s netting 20.2pts and 10.4rebs while the healthy-again Tony Parker is spurring the offense with with 16.4pts and 5.7apg. We’ve seen Jarrett Jack handle Chris Paul, Devin Harris and Jonny Flynn to a good degree, but Parker will be a real test of his lateral quickness, not that a pass/fail in the matchup will mean anything in the long run. The Raptors (no matter who is playing) will have trouble defending a quick PG, it’s the level to which you make that PG work on the other end that determines how well you’ve done, and in that regard Jack has been phenomenal with his aggressiveness. Turkoglu’s also getting more comfortable:

“We’re starting to realize how good we can be, we’re still progressing and need to learn about playing 48 minutes … when we figure that out too I think we’re going to be really good and you’ll see more [streaks] like this, 4-0 and 5-0 and even more.”

Just like it has been for the past three games, Andrea Bargnani’s performance will be key in beating any team which has big bigs. We’ve seen him torment Chris Wilcox, Ben Wallace and Emeka Okafor recently and that’ll need to continue against Howard and Duncan. After dropping 26 against the Magic in the first game, he was held to 11 and 12 the last two, fouling out in one and collecting only 2 rebounds in the other. It’s no surprise that the only Magic game that was close was the first one. Although fans will always want him to shoot less threes than he’s shooting, it should be noted that Bargnani has moved his game inside. Somewhat. Have a look at his shot distance range per 40 minutes and you’ll notice that he is, proportionally speaking, shooting less threes this year than he did last and is opting for a more mid-range jumpers than ever before.

Taking the shot location concept a step further and viewing it in the context of the whole team, you’ll see that the Raptors are 24th in the league in allowing “at the rim” shot attempts. This could speak of our weak perimeter defense and tendency to allow dribble penetration. This is obviously not good and I was surprised to see the Lakers dead last in this “statistical” category. After watching their game against the Kings, I noticed that the Laker’s almost encourage dribble penetration! With the shot-blocking threats of Gasol and Bynum in there, they’re very comfortable letting guards challenge them at the rim as Beno Udrih and Tyreke Evans recently found out. They’re 14th in the league in shot-blocking but that stat is very misleading as it doesn’t take into account shots altered.

I’d also like to commend Leo Rautins for stating how Bargnani gets the short end of the stick on fouls. The two fourth quarter fouls he picked up against Detroit were total BS, the Raptors should make a tape of these things and send it to the NBA. After Tim Donaghy mentioned that the league instructed the officials to give Kobe Bryant the benefit of the doubt after the Lakers had sent in a tape of 25 plays where a foul should’ve been called, there’s no reason not to. I’m not suggesting that Bargnani will suddenly be given preferential treatment, but at least the officials won’t be jumping to conclusions based on what they expect to see rather than what actually happened.

Trivia time. Per 48, Chris Bosh is the leader in points scored for the Raptors at 23.5. Who is second? Take a guess, don’t look it up, just think for a second…answer’s coming up….Patrick O’Bryant. Yup, it’s POB, I couldn’t believe it myself, but he is netting 29.3 per 48. What does this mean? Do we start POB? I don’t know, but it’s hard to argue with the stats.

I’d like to take a moment to thank the well wishers including those who emailed in, I really appreciate it. No podcast this Monday because of the holidays, baby and what else but like we did with Tim Chisholm, we’ll make it up.

Another roller-coaster week, two disappointing losses sandwiched between an expected and an unexpected win. With injuries to Bargnani and Calderon, there was a chance for some reserves to make their mark and Jarrett Jack made the most of the opportunity. Sonny Weems had a nice run against Houston which many of us feel is something he can do rather consistently if given the chance. His game isn’t dependent on an outside jumper like Belinelli’s so it’s easier for him to be consistent. Utilizing ones athleticism is a matter of effort, something which is up to the individual to maintain, jumper’s a different breed as we’ve seen with Belinelli. You just don’t know when they’ll fall or when they’ll miss.

Jack’s been the most impressive Raptor for me, he averaged 14.75pts, 6.25asts and 5rebs for the week while playing 35mpg. The turnover numbers are rather high at 3.25/game but you’ll take that since he’s being very forceful on offense. He’s gone up against some quick hotshot young ‘uns this week and came out looking pretty decent, facing Flynn, Jennings and Brooks can be a defensive nightmare and he’s done a commendable job of it. Does he deserve the starting job? Before you answer yes or no to it, think back to Forderon and when some of us thought Jose should be the starter based on his play in a stretch of the season. I’ll try not to anoint him ‘the next one’, maybe he’s just a backup who’s having a good game, maybe he’s a starter in backup’s clothing. The good thing is that Jose is going to feel threatened which should help his game, just like it did when TJ was around.

Triano’s deservedly came under a lot of heat with the way the team lost against Milwaukee and Atlanta, in both cases the opponent made second quarter surges which we failed to overcome because of our inability to get stops. Fans just want to see him do something when the team is down, maybe call a timeout, gather his squad, draw up a couple good shot opportunities in the hopes of getting the team going. The frustration with him stems from his in-game management which seems to be non-existent, we’re 26 games in and I don’t recall him making a true change mid-game which gave the Raptors the advantage. We saw Milwaukee crowd Bosh in the second half, we saw Phoenix be prepared for the PnR switch a couple weeks ago, we even saw Minnesota, despite a size disadvantage, make a distinct effort to go at our bigs, I don’t know if anyone can remember Triano tweaking something at halftime to gain advantage.

Click on the play button below or listen directly in iTunes (37:31), you can also download the file (12.8 MB).

[audio:http://raptorsrepublic.com/audio/2009-12-14-weekly.mp3]

Podcast topics include:

• Living with Bosh and Bargnani.
• Whether Triano is screwing up DeRozan or is DeRozan just passive.
• A case for Sonny Weems.
• Lethargy against Atlanta.
• What the Houston win really means?
• The quest for .500 by January 1st.
• Bench depth. What do we have in Belinelli?

Looking Ahead

Tue @ MIA: Revenge mission for Miami. We beat them 120-113 earlier in the year. Since then they’re 4-6.

Wed @ ORL: Third time’s the charm against Orlando? If you can’t beat a team at home in two tries on Sunday afternoons, you’re not going to beat them on the road.

Fri v NJN: Lose here and…well, nobody will be shocked. I’m looking forward to seeing Brook Lopez operate, he killed Jermaine O’Neal last year and Bargnani should get a dose of the ‘inside’ against him.

Sun v NOH: Revenge mission for New Orleans. This seems ages ago, it was at the time a very impressive win but NOH went ahead and dropped 4 of their next 5 when Paul went out. Now he’s back and they’ve won 3 of 4, albeit against the Kings and Wolves (twice). They did lose to the Knicks at home 113-96 so that tells you how bad they could be. This is Mo Pete appreciation night, watch him go off for six threes. He’s pulled himself up to a 5.08 PER since we last checked on him, but good ‘ol Antoine Wright remains the worst player in the league:

On the podcast this week are AltRaps, RapsFan and phdsteve. There’s a bunch of things being discussed with consensus reached on Triano. Click on the play button below or listen directly in iTunes, you can also download the file. The song is via this guy.

[audio:http://raptorsrepublic.com/audio/2009-12-07-weekly.mp3]

Before we get too excited let’s remind ourselves of the scalps we earned: two 7-11 teams. It’s not like we beat the Magic or Celtics or Hawks. We beat two very mediocre teams, however, it wasn’t the result that was so satisfying for me, it was the way we played. I would’ve been completely content with the team’s performance if Arenas had finished off a three-point play against Amir Johnson to send us to defeat. The great part about the second Washington game was that for the first time all year, the Raptors were focused on doing things with a degree of professionalism. The effort was consistent, although we blew a big early lead, it was because of turnovers and cold-spells, not because of laziness and disinterest. I can accept that.

Usually there’s a positives and negatives section to this post but we’ll do away with that since mostly everything was a negative in the first two games and a positive in the latter two.

DeMar DeRozan getting more involved in the offense was long overdue so it was good to see the man go 15/29 over the last three games. We’re running some plays for him and not just asking him to figure things out on his own. He doesn’t look as lost out there anymore and runs the channels with some real purpose. Once he figures out how to apply a finish to his sweeping moves, he’ll be a regular threat. The lack of options at SG means that we have to move the rookie along quickly and the increased involvement in the offense will pay dividends. Starting DeRozan is the smartest thing Triano has done, although not sure how much of it came from above. I hated the way he danced for the camera in the fourth quarter against the Bulls, good on Turkoglu for quieting him down. Only pieces of rotten s**t like the C**tics do that.

The night in Washington could’ve ended badly if we had lost the game in OT, the talk after the game would’ve been about Turkoglu’s shot-attempt to win the game in regulation. The “play” that Triano ran was nothing more than Tukoglu receiving the ball, wasting time and launching a shot the defense would practically give him any day – a deep contested three. Nobody’s talking about it since we won but it was nothing short of shocking to see that happen again after Phoenix. Triano’s yet to impress anyone with his playbook on either end of the floor, sooner or later this will catch up to us.

Chris Bosh got a lot of flak for “giving up” on this team during the Atlanta loss. Bullshit. He had a bad game, the guy got 22/14, 31/16 and 25/12 in the other three games of the week and was easily our best player. Again. Does he blow defensive assignments? Yes. Does he deserve to get burned at the stake for it? Umm…no. Considering his offensive and rebounding production, I think it’s only too fair to cut him some slack if he’s not playing DPOY defense all the time. Good players have bad stretches and bad games, Haywood outmuscled him a few times in the first Washington game and Horford got the better of him physically. But that’s all it was, claiming that he quit on the team is just stupid.

The team aired out it’s dirty laundry last week and it was quite obvious that more than a few people had issues with Andrea Bargnani’s defense, as well they should. To his credit, Bargnani responded with a 9 and an 8 rebound game. He put more effort on the boards, he boxed out better and he played with an edge. The result was his offense suffering, he went 10-30 FG (3-11 3FG) in the last two games and kept it on the perimeter. When will put the scoring and defense into one package and deliver? Not sure, but Triano hinting at 0-3 changes in the starting lineup to me meant that only Turkoglu and Bosh are safe. At some point in his career I’d like to see him not get subbed out for defensive reasons during close games, that doesn’t sit right with me.

Two anomalies in our two wins, we held the Wizards to 36.8% and the Bulls to 39% shooting, well below their season averages. We know that our defense looked better than what it is in these two games, but there were some common themes. We gave up only 18 PINP to the Wizards and only 34 to the Bulls, we kept them on the outside and they missed their perimeter looks. Many of the jumpers were contested which helped drop the percentages. Our transition defense was excellent, we only gave up 10 fastbreak points to the Bulls. The 22 we gave up to the Wizards were mostly due to unforced turnovers in the first half, both stats are encouraging signs that the defensive effort is better.

So, did a meeting solve everything? Of course, not. In fact, it’s entirely f****d up how a team meeting fixed our effort level. Triano obviously knew that the team wasn’t putting forth an honest day’s work and failed to correct the course on his own. His boss had to fly over to Washington and speak to the team and basically do his job for him. I think phdsteve, despite his craziness, is right on one point, Triano doesn’t scare the players and that’s not a good thing.

Looking Ahead

Tue v MIN: 3-17 is bad but consider this: They beat Denver in Denver last week on the backs of Ryan Gomes and his 12-18 FG performance. Nathan Jawai actually played meaningful minutes and hauled down 7 rebounds in 13 minutes. Of major note is that they’ve just got Kevin Love back from injury and with him they’re 1-1, including an impressive win against the Jazz; the loss came at the hands of New Orleans in a tight affair. Love posted an 11/11 and 18/10 in those two games, the Raptors will need to rebound and can’t look past this one. This will not be a blowout.

Wed @ MIL: It’s a back-to-back for both teams as they’re playing the C**tics in Boston the night before. Jennings is shooting 33% in his last eight games and has shot more than 50% only once since his 55 point game. He’s also a good 5.8 field goal attempts ahead of anyone on the team with 18.9 (7th in the NBA). The 9-10 Bucks started off hot but have dropped 7 of 8 and Redd remains out of the lineup with a sore left knee. They’re 6th in defensive rating under Scott Skiles who is preaching defense every chance he gets. This is what a scout had to say about stopping Brandon Jennings:

“The biggest thing is that you have to have great transition defense and also try to keep him out of the paint. The problem is that you can’t just go under every screen and dare him to shoot because he has such great range on his 3 ball. He also does a great job of keeping the ball alive, dribbling around like Nash, probing for openings.

“It’s hard to be physical with him because of his speed. Defensively you can try to make him run through a lot of screens and try to wear him down in pick-and-rolls, but they have pretty good length around him to help. He’s very similar to me to a young, passionate Allen Iverson. He’s a lot tougher than people gave him credit for, including me.

“The thing that’s really impressed me is that he hasn’t been a high-volume shooter. I know he’s struggled lately, but he’s been pretty efficient in a lot of games. The bigger question to me is what’s going to happen when Michael Redd is back as a consistent player, because he’s getting a lot of Michael Redd’s shots.”

If I had to pick at #9 again, I’d still pick DeRozan.

Fri v ATL: They plundered our virginity last Wednesday and we have to repay the favor. Well, I’ll just settle for a win. We can’t let Horford, Pachulia back us down so easily and we can’t let Josh Smith climb over our backs for offensive boards. Our transition defense (especially after misses and turnovers) will be paramount in restricting the Hawks’ scoring. Last time around we barely tried, let’s see what difference increased effort makes. I think the Raptors will show up for this one. In a big way. Since beating us they’ve lost at home to the Knicks and beaten the Mavericks in Dallas. Go figure.

Sun v HOU: They recently went 3-1 on a roadtrip which included a back-to-back sweep of the Clippers and Golden State before they lost in the dying seconds to Brandon Roy in Portland. The Rockets remain without McGrady and Yao and have managed to assemble a respectable record of 11-9, however, they’re lost a lot of statement games (Portland, Dallas, Phoenix, Atlanta, Dallas, San Antonio) which further congeals their position in the second tier in the West. They did beat the Lakers, though. Last time we faced them was in pre-season when Shane Battier hit 8 threes.

I’m going with 3-1 with the loss coming against Houston. AltRaps goes a very optimistic 4-0, RapsFan plays it safe with 2-2 and phdsteve’s prediction is a gloomy 1-3.

Very interesting question raised in the forums, sure got me thinking. Buy a t-shirt! Christmas gift, or something.

Let’s get the podcast with AltRaps and RapsFan out of the way, we discuss the criticism of Bosh, Triano’s take on defense, and wonder whether things really are that bad. Click on the play button below or listen directly in iTunes, you can also download the file.

[audio:http://raptorsrepublic.com/audio/2009-12-01-weekly.mp3]

Small mistake in the podcast: Turkoglu did take a shot in the first half.

Positives

Jarrett Jack: Take the horrible Charlotte game where everybody struggled and he averaged 15.33 points on 74% shooting. We’re seeing more of the drive game and less of the off-balance floaters and quick jumpers. The defense isn’t up to par yet but asking him to defend taller SGs (Daniels, Richardson) isn’t helping. As Calderon struggled in the latter half of the week, Jack looked to come in and make an immediate impact with this energy and intent to drive the ball. If our two PGs repeat last week’s performance for December, expect the ‘Start Jack’ calls to get louder.

Negatives

This section could be very long but I’ll pick one player and two general things.

Marco Belinelli: 4-21 FG (19%) for the week, 13 of those were threes and he only made one. I like him, I appreciate the effort he brings and the swagger he plays with. After lighting it up the week before last, he struggled this week even though he wasn’t doing anything different. That’s just how jump-shooting works, you’ll always end up playing your percentage. Hunting down shots behind screens is his thing, he’s good at it, he looks for them aggressively and when he’s making them he’s the toast of the town. What to expect this week? No idea, that’s just how his game works. He did injure his groin last week so perhaps that had a bearing on his play.

Defensive Schemes: This has already been beaten to death so I’ll keep it short. Preemptive helping is destroying us, asking high court-awareness from Bargnani, Belinelli, Calderon and Turkoglu is asking too much. Triano’s over-helping, protect-the-paint, zonal marking strategy works great on paper, maybe even in NBA Live, but when you have below-average defensive players that aren’t the sharpest tools in the drawer, you might want to switch to more simpler sets. I vote for simple man-marking and 1/2, 2/3 and 4/5 switches and the occasional zone so we’re not exhausted when the third quarter starts (We were -13 -12, -16 and -7 in third quarters this week). Something needs to be done, a team dead last in defense will not make the playoffs. Guaranteed.

Timeouts & Subs: Never made a big deal about calling timeouts because they’re big boys. However, you can’t wait till it’s a 14-2 run before deciding to stop the bleeding, we lost three games in the third quarter this week and I can’t help but think if a well-timed timeout had taken place, we’d have been in it longer. The bench performed well against Boston and Phoenix in the second quarters but as the starters struggled in the third, they weren’t inserted too boost the energy. If the starters aren’t performing, especially in the crucial third, you have to go with what’s proven to work in the game. Jack and Johnson were both effective but could’ve have had a bigger say in both games.

Dishonorable Mentions: Jose Calderon, Hedo Turkoglu, Antoine Wright.

Coming along…

Chris Bosh: 21pts, 14rebs on 46% shooting. The offensive numbers scaled back a bit due to the poor jump shooting but the dedication to offensive rebounding sees his percentage remain respectable. Is he padding his stats? What does that even mean?

Andrea Bargnani: 15pts, 5.5rebs on 47% shooting. That sounds about right for him, he had a big impact in the Phoenix game where he mixed his game up regularly against Lopez and Frye. Still got burned by Frye on a few threes but not sure if that’s Bargnani being out of position or Triano making Bargnani be out of position. The Boston performance was something to forget. Some suggest that we start Johnson, you think that’s going to fly with Colangelo who inked him to a $10M/yr deal? Just ask Mitchell.

Looking Ahead

Tue v WAS: Jamison, Arenas, Butler, Haywood and Foye. The record might be 5-10 but we don’t matchup well against them or similar athletic teams (see Charlotte), especially Jamison who has historically torched Bosh. He averaged 26/9 against us last year while Butler averaged 21/7. We have blown them out a few times at the ACC so there’s reason for optimism. They’re 25th in offensive rating which means we have a chance of holding a team to under 100 points, something we haven’t done for 9 straight games. Last time it happened was against the Clippers when we won 104-89. They also got hammered by the Bobcats and Arenas is apparently shying away from taking shots.

“What do you expect me to do?” Arenas said. “Go out there and score 30? I’m not going to go out there and try to score 30 when we have a lot of offensive players here. Last game, I was 4 for 7, [on Saturday] I was 3 for 11. I’ll take the shots I feel are sufficient for me. Other than that, the offensive load’s on everybody else.”

Wed @ ATL: We’re 0-4 in back-to-backs and they’ve shown us nothing to believe that we won’t be 0-5 after this one. Atlanta, just as expected, is getting more and more comfortable as the 4th seed in the East, they’ve got a 2.5 game lead over Miami which you’d think will steadily increase. They lost a home test against Orlando and have dropped 3 of 4, most recently to Detroit, so will look to set things right against the Raptors. They’ll be playing after two off-days.

Fri @ WAS: See above, a split sounds reasonable.

Sat @ CHI: This is a back-to-back for both teams, the Bulls are in Cleveland the previous night. They’re 6-8 and have lost four straight, they’re 27th in the league in offense and one of the few teams we’ve kept to under 100 points, 89 on November 11th. Why are the Bulls struggling? Apparently they have one of the weakest “top threes” in the league.

I’m going with a very optimistic 3-1, AltRaps agrees and RapsFan supplies the buzzkill by picking 1-3 and hinting at an 0-4 week.

The Orlando game for me was a bit of a nightmare. It showed just how dependent we are on scoring, we went cold for 5 possessions and suddenly the Magic scrubs had taken the game over. Not having your defense to fall back on when things aren’t going right on offense is going to be the main challenge for this team. This could entirely be a personnel issue in that we simply don’t have good defensive players, but Triano needs to be held accountable because he publicly spoke of his faith in this unit’s ability to play team defense and he apparently also had a say in all summer transactions. Fourteen games in and it turns out both our GM and coach were way off on their evaluation of this team’s defensive abilities. Should we wait more before passing judgment? Does it really matter? I’m starting to hope that we remain around .500 or so till January and pull off a trade for the stretch run.

Positives

Marco Belinelli: I said he was feast or famine and last week he was all feast, hopefully he stays that way for us. He’s played like the super-sub we expected him to be and I like that he’s got a swagger about him. He had two big time performance against the Nuggets and Jazz where he averaged 17.5 pts and 4 rebs. The Miami game saw him handle the ball more and he notched 4 assists in only 15 minutes of play. He missed the Orlando game and his absence was felt as the Raptors bench struggled to score early in the crucial fourth quarter.

Amir Johnson: Too bad the team couldn’t pull through against the Magic because his great 14/8, 6-7 FG performance needed to be admired. He’s starting to have stretches in the game where he’s a defensive and offensive factor on three or four straight possessions, leading the opposing coach to call a timeout. The aggression he’s playing with is being rewarded which is usually the case. He wasn’t doing that early but having a chance to look at the team from the bench it’s not hard to figure out what’s lacking. He saw it and went about providing it. If Reggie Evans does come back and Johnson continues his good play, we could pack a hustle-punch or two.

Jarrett Jack’s lack of turnovers: Three straight turnover free games, a 17-point effort against the Heat including a couple big shots and an 11 assist game against the Magic. I don’t know what it means but he’s playing better and is driving more, which is what he was hired to do. Haven’t seen him get sucked in by those 20 footers too much last few days which bodes well. The defense isn’t what it was advertised as over the summer, but considering how awful he’s been to start the season it doesn’t take much for something to count as an improvement.

Negatives

Pick ‘n Roll defense: First and foremost, I blame the coach for not figuring this out. Everybody from Carlos Boozer, Eric Maynor, Dwight Howard to JJ Redick took turns exploiting what the Raptors give away on this set. The hedging is non-existing, the switching is random and the effort is minimal. Calderon, Jack, Turkoglu and DeRozan all get caught behind the screen leaving the ball-handler with multiple options. In the pre-season against Philadelphia I saw some trapping but that’s never happened since, no idea why not because it make sense to cause turnovers (2nd worst in league) since we’re unable to stop teams in their regular sets. It’s one thing to get physically beat on a play, another to play the incorrect strategy and further worsen your chances at a defensive stop. This is nothing less than shocking to me after my ears went sore listening to Triano laud the team’s defensive work.

Andrea Bargnani: Other than a strong showing against the hapless Heat, he struggled to get anything against the better teams as Nene, Lewis and Kirilenko all outplayed him. Averaging 9 rebounds for the week is a great jump from the usual 5, but the 10M dollar man needs to have an impact on both sides of the floor and that too, consistently. The return of the pull-up 20 footer is not a good sign, especially when it comes against slower big men who prefer you take that shot. When he does “put it together”, he does it for 5 minute stretches and we’re all waiting for him to put together a solid string of games where he’s a dominant force. Or am I asking too much?

Hedo Turkoglu’s utilization: Devlin’s reminded us to death about how he’s a “big time playoff performer” and we get it, but that shouldn’t mean Triano should give him the license to do whatever he pleases in the fourth quarter which so far has been going 1-on-1. He’s not an Ace of Spades that you can hang on to and unleash only when the game’s on the line. I still maintain that we should be going through Turkoglu a lot more in the first three quarters. The combination of Calderon/Jack is being scored open too often, they’re giving up 136 points per 100 possessions, this is well below the team number of 116. If Triano’s obsessed with having ball-handlers out there, Hedo’s a pretty good option. Turkoglu’s usage rate is 18.7%, that’s the lowest its been since the 2003-04 season.

Jose Calderon’s defense: Yes, I can blame him for other PGs having big games. Yes, basketball can be that simple at times and the box-scores can be that straightforward. AST/TO for the week was 2.3 but who cares, all I can remember is him being on Deron Williams’ hip instead of in front of him, Jason Williams going past him without a screen and Ty Lawson pulling some crazy sh*t on his watch. The offense is coming along with two 16 and one 14 point games but at what cost? Sorry, even after three years I haven’t accepted that we have a below average PG who will usually concede what he earns.

Coming along…

Using Chris Bosh: Technically, I should be putting him under positives every time but that would get old. Take the Denver game out and he’s had another great week. The five rebound total against the Magic was low but when you have Dwight Howard responsibilities you have to rely on your teammates to pick it up, they didn’t and we conceded 14 offensive rebounds. Taking one-shot in the fourth quarter didn’t jive well either. The Raptors forget about their best player far too often, he couldn’t get a touch in the fourth quarter on Sunday and didn’t have as many iso sets as he needed on the West coast. Sometimes we forget that he’s our main advantage and I find that hard to believe/accept/fathom. Triano, take note.

Looking ahead

Tue v IND: My man Roy Hibbert is averaging close to 12/9 for the 5-6 Pacers and playing big, I said it then and I’ll say it again – we never should’ve traded that 17th pick. Hibbert’s exactly the type of player we need, a 7’2″ 280lb C who plays his weight. Danny Granger’s pulling the weight of his contract with 25/7 and our old friend T.J Ford is dropping 10/4/3 as the starting PG. They started off losing three straight, won six straight and have lost three straight. All things considered, they’re probably in the same tier as us and since they got creamed in Charlotte on Sunday, it should make us weary of our next opponent.

Wed @ CHA: Where the Raptors suck at D and excel at O, the Bobcats are the opposite. Larry Brown’s got these guys playing defense and it shows in their 4th place defensive rating of 100.6. However, that’s offset by their 28th place offensive rating of 94. They’re cracked the 100 point plateau just three times and have been held below 80 five times, including a 59 against the C**tics. They snapped a 7-game losing streak at home to Indiana and at 4-9 are fighting with the Wizards and Knicks for something I’m not quite sure of. Keep an eye on Gerald Wallace, he’s netting 14/11 for them and is liable to explode against us. We should also see Stephen Jackson guarding Chris Bosh at some point.

Fri @ BOS: Can we f*&^%$g beat them already? Just once, in my lifetime!? The mega-c**t hit a game-winner on Sunday too which didn’t sit right.

Sun v PHO: If we lose by one on the road we should win at home, right? Phoenix will be in the second game of a stretch where they’ll be playing 8 of 11 on the road and trust them to try to get a couple wins early. It’ll be interesting to see whether Triano repeats the switching strategy on Nash/Amare, if he does the Suns will be ready with a plan. Fool me once…

RapsFan says 2-2, I concur, and phdsteve goes with 1-3. Here’s the podcast:

Click on the play button below or listen directly in iTunes, you can also download the file.

[audio:http://raptorsrepublic.com/audio/2009-11-22-weekly.mp3]

Let’s check out the positives, negatives and so-so’s.

Positives:

Team Defense: After giving up 131 against San Antonio we’ve allowed only 93ppg in our last three games. Holding the Bulls to 89 might be considered routine and the Clippers are the Clippers, but the energy shown against the Suns in holding them to more than 11 below the season average on their home floor says something. Slowing the pace of the game to match our desired tempo and energy was the key, if you get the other team to play at the pace you prefer, your conditioning is less likely to be tested and the Raptors are doing that. We’re still dead last in defensive rating at 115.1 but there is a silver lining there – our defensive effort is better and we’re more comfortable with Triano’s schemes. The Raptors were also only a combined -8 in rebounding in the last three games, I suppose going -12 against a Duncan-less San Antonio woke the boys up a bit. We’ve also prevented teams from dominating us inside by giving up dribble penetration which has resulted in us allowing only 35 PINP this week. Triano’s strategy of making shooters make contested shots is paying off, opponents shot 14-50 from threes this week, that’s 28%!

Belinelli’s a factor: After a barren pre-season, Marco Belinelli is finally coming around and edging into the top 7. He went 15-28 FG (53%) this week and hit some big threes against the Clippers and Suns. 11ppg for the week is modest enough but with Jack struggling, he’s been the main threat off the bench. He also had a couple 3 assists game showing that when given the chance to facilitate, he can do it. The offensive firepower that was promised after the trade is starting to show, question is can he keep it up?

Turkoglu’s assertiveness: He averaged 10 shots per game in his first four games but has upped it to 13 in his last four. He had two 20 point games and shot 47% for the week; that’s including a miserable 4-12 against Chicago. After hitting some big shots late against Phoenix, he missed a couple he usually drains, but at least we know he’s still looking to be the man. The initiation of Turkoglu is close to complete and the only thing we should worry about is his health, a tweaked hip needs to be sorted out early. We don’t want that hanging around.

Honorable mention: Amir Johnson averaging 6.5pts and 6.75rebs for the week and hustling all the way.

Negatives:

Jarrett Jack in general: Is he a 1, is he a 2 or does he just suck? After being called out by ESPN as one of the most disappointing signings of the summer (5.8 PER), he didn’t do much to alter that opinion. 6 assists and 9 turnovers for the week, including one against Phoenix that literally cost us the momentum and eventually the game. His play can be characterized as lazy which is the last thing I expected of him, his passing has been terrible and he’s shown some signs of playing scared, killing his dribble early being one of them. He shot 36% (8-22 FG) for the week and his defense was porous, it can’t get much worse. Oh wait, his PER just fell to 5.26 which is sixth worst in the league!

Coming along…

Bosh keeps chugging along: For the week he netted 26.5 ppg and 11.25 rpg on 47% shooting. He’s laughing his way to the bank. Third in the league in rebounding, fifth in scoring, second in PER only to the injured Chris Paul. Can we give him a Player of the Week or something.

Bargnani’s still the same: The only center in the league that can average 4 rebounds for the week and still avoid the negatives sections of these posts. Much like one tunes out a nagging wife, I’ve accepted his faults and have become numb to his suspect defensive effort. As long as he keeps shooting high enough percentages people will be willing to look past his rebounding, he was 46% for the week which is acceptable. However, being 6/17 from three is not, that’s 35% shooting and frankly I’d rather have Belinelli or Turkoglu jack those up than Bargnani. He got lit up by Kaman, Frye and Bonner so what he took on offense was given right back.

Nesterovic: I wanted to add him to the negatives considering what a pointless signing he’s turned out to be, but then AltRaps reminded me that he’s nothing but insurance. Still, I’d like better insurance.

Honourable mention: Jose Calderon for averaging 14.25 points and 8.75 assists with a ridiculous AST/TO of 10.33. Would’ve been in the positives if it weren’t for the stinker in Phoenix.

Looking ahead

Tue @ DEN: The 7-3 Nuggets are beating teams by an average of 15 points at home, this includes a 105-79 shellacking of the Lakers. They finished their longest roadtrip of the season by going 3-3 and have settled in to play 7 of their next 9 at home. You might remember this as the 39 point loss that finally got Mitchell fired last year. Anthony is averaging 30/5 and it would be nice to have Antoine Wright suited for this one, should be fun. No altitude excuses.

Wed @ UTA: The 4-6 Jazz are also coming back from a long trip and will face the Raptors after a three day break. They’ve already lost at home to Sacramento and Houston and are a surprisingly bad defensive team – 26th in the league in defensive rating at 110.6. Injuries to Harpring, Korver and Miles have definitely had an impact and the Raptors could catch a break as Deron Williams is listed as questionable for Wednesday’s game for personal reasons. Bargnani will take on Okur in a battle of perimeter oriented centers as Boozer and Bosh go at it again in what should be a physical affair. We’ve lost 8 straight to the Jazz, the most memorable loss being the TJ Ford implosion in those green jerseys.

Fri v MIA: The 7-2 Heat have played 7 home games, the most in the NBA. They’ve had a relatively easy schedule and have had one impressive win, beating the Nuggets at home. Other than that they’ve been feasting on the Wizards, Nets, Knicks, Pacers and Bulls. They’ve lost to the other two quality opponents they’ve faced, Phoenix and Cleveland in rather unconvincing fashion. Wade’s averaging 30/5 and bailed out the team with a game-winning three against the Nets at home, a loss that would’ve truly burst the bubble. Jermaine O’Neal has only missed one game and is averaging 13.6/7.8 on 57% shooting. This season means nothing to them, they’re lining it up for a big summer signing.

Sun v ORL: The 7-3 Magic have cooled off since we last saw them, they’ve gone 4-3 since losing by 28 in OKC, dropping one at home to Cleveland and losing in Detroit. The most impressive feat since has been a 122-100 demolition of the Suns at home. Rashard Lewis will be available after serving a 10 game suspension and this could be a Vince Carter appreciation night at the ACC. The Raptors had a great second half against the Magic but couldn’t overcome a lazy first half performance, that has to be on their minds and I’m thinking it’ll work out in our favor.

I’m going with a bold 3-1 with the only loss coming against Denver.

[audio:http://raptorsrepublic.com/audio/2009-11-09-WallySam.mp3]

So, what to make of this team so far? Let’s check out the positives, negatives and the so-so’s.

Positives:

Chris Bosh: 28.5/11.8 on 52.6% shooting. Remember those MVP chants last year which we all knew were disingenuous? Well, if the home crowd chants that right now I doubt Vince would shrug it off. He’s been the most aggressive Raptor and is playing harder than he has ever before. Not sure how much of it is the upper body strength which has allowed him to bang on the boards, especially the offensive ones. It could also be a looser role where he’s not the first option on each play, thus allowing him to wander on offense and play like a baller instead of in a defined robotic role. Whatever it is, if he keeps this going he’ll be in MVP conversation at the very least when the season ends. That’s a big if though as last year he started tailing off right about now. I could be convinced to give this Chris Bosh max-money. However, the consistent defense is an issue as we saw against the Mavericks and the Magic. Early days.

Team Offense: 4th in the league in scoring at 107ppg and shooting 47%. This is with Jack, Belinelli and Calderon all having very so-so starts to the season and the offense not being fully installed yet. This is largely thanks to Bargnani and Bosh who are producing 46% of the Raptors’ offense (295 of 642 points). Bargnani’s shooting 52% for the year and if he keeps that number up, many can look past his rebounding. Speaking of that, he’s averaging 6.8rpg which is up 1.5 from last year. Hedo’s influence on the offense has been great and although he’s only had a couple massive quarters so far, he’s slowly but surely finding his space in our sets.

Bargnani’s Defense: Whichever side of the fence you’re on with him, you have to admit that you haven’t seen nearly as many of his ‘moments’ where he’s ball-watching. Yes, jogging backwards after taking a three instead of trying to get the offensive rebound is a bit lame, but overall, he’s held his ground reasonably well against Howard, Wallace and Nowitzki. And as I already said, a 1.5 increase in RPG is great and the added defensive effort hasn’t had an impact on his legs as he’s shooting a blistering 52% from three. Caution to the wind, part of the rebounding increase has been due to more minutes, his rebounding per 48 is up only 0.3 from last year – 7.8 to 8.1.

Negatives:

Team Defense: The defensive work of Calderon and Jack has so far been poor; both have consistently been exploited and other than a quarter in New Orleans, have looked very susceptible to penetration. The fitness level is open to questioning and we’re seeing too many quarter-long defensive lapses which have already cost us two games (Mavericks 3rd and Magic 2nd). This was the chief focus in pre-season so forgive me for holding it to a higher standard than a 29th place defensive rating (116.8 points allowed per 100 possessions).

Bench production: Jack’s AST/TO ratio is 1.78:1 and he’s shooting 35%. The second unit comes out playing hard but other than against Detroit, hasn’t provided the lift in energy that’s required of them. Belinelli hasn’t established himself as a regular off the bench and is misfiring on some very clean looks. The overall percentage is respectable at 45% (14-31) but his impact has been minimal and he’s been the 8th or 9th in the rotation behind (Jack, Wright, Johnson). It hasn’t come back to seriously hurt us because we’re firing on all cylinders but over the long run we need him.

Coming along…

Johnson: After a very bad start to the season where he couldn’t stay on the floor for more than two minutes, Amir Johnson’s being more aggressive and it has translated to some rebounds, in last week’s games he got 5, 6 and 7 rebounds. He’s third on the team in rebounding per 48 and is playing harder, if not smarter. The offense is still a long ways away and unless he’s got an uncontested dunk in front of him, he wobbles.

DeRozan: The rookie had a positive week but was the victim of some unexplainable substitutions which broke his early rhythm (against Chicago and Dallas). We’d all like to hear Devlin call his name more often and I don’t see Triano doing that because of all the other offensive options. It’s time for the rookie to be a little selfish in the opportunities that the offense presents to him. He’s the last guy on the floor the defense is worrying about and that alone should get you 4-5 good looks a game.

Wright: If you need a spark on defense, go to him. If you need to space out the floor, he’s the last guy you call on. Therein lies the conundrum, we lost Kapono who could space the floor but sucked at D, we gained Wright who’s a good defender but is a career 29% shooter from three. The 1-9 in Dallas was hard to watch and teams will continue to cheat off of him in order to deal better with Bosh, Bargnani and Turkoglu. If only Belinelli could be a solid defender at the SG, our issues would be solved. The art of hiding a player’s weakness while playing to his strengths is where coaches earn their money and Triano’s got two subjects in Belinelli and Wright.

Looking ahead

Mon @ SAS: The 2-3 Spurs are missing Parker and are considered to be ‘struggling’. However, the Raptors have served as the perfect antidote for struggling teams; the Spurs will come out looking to get a home W against an opponent that they consider to be inferior. The Raptors did pick up a win here last year so anything’s possible.

Wed vs CHI: Like the Raptors, the Bulls have collected a couple impressive scalps already by beating San Antonio and Cleveland. This game will be the second of a back-to-back for them so we’ll be looking to go 3-0 when that’s the case. Despite shooting only 42%, the Bulls have four games and that’s because they’re rebounding their misses. Fifth in the league in total and offensive rebounds, they wield two players averaging more than 10 rpg – Deng and Noah.

Fri @ LAC: There aren’t many easy nights out West but this one could be just that with the Clippers missing rookie Blake Griffin. After starting out 0-4, they’ve reeled off three straight wins against Minnesota, Golden State and Memphis, teams that could be considered in the same tier as them. Baron Davis is still shooting 40% but Kaman and Camby are at 23/10 and 10/10. The Raptors will not only have to deal with the explosiveness of Davis (can Jack finally slow down a good G), they’ll have to keep their big bigs off the boards.

Sun @ PHO: Phoenix is red hot at 6-1. We haven’t beaten them at home or away since they acquired Nash so it’s going to be hard to come away with a win here. We’ll get a chance to run up and down the court which is not what you want to do because that’s what they want you to do. Slowing the game down into a possession battle (like when they had Shaq) is the way to beat them. This would be a most impressive win and I do believe we have the tools to pull it off, it’s a question of our defense disrupting the Nash/Amare pick ‘n roll and staying with their shooters. Easier said than done.

Raps Fan says 3-1 with the loss coming in Phoenix, A-Dub says 1-3 with the win coming at home against Chicago, and I go with 2-2 and see the Raptors winning against Chicago and the Clippers.