What would the Raptors record be without Rudy Gay this season?
The Raptors are just 2.5 win percentage points ahead of last season's team. And i said this on the other thread, this team even without Gay is more talented than last year's team.
If the Raptors didn't trade for Rudy the way this Raps team is playing right now they probably would battle Charlotte and Orlando for the Ben McLemore sweepstakes.
I mean, this team has regressed big time from last year. I'm thinking that last year might be nothing more than an illusion. I mean, defensively they're AWFUL and offensively they're a mess. I don't think Casey has an idea what they're doing offensively.
Our record would be around 34-36 instead of 26-44
This is actually any easy question to answer. Our record without the trade would be around: 34-36.
We have lost around 8 wins so far because of the Rudy Gay trade (3 lost from Jose, 4 lost from Ed - assuming he had earned a place ahead of Andrea, and 1 lost in 'gaining' Rudy)
Using the stats on thenbageek.com, we can see that:
- Jose Calderon is at +0.235 wins/48 mins ... vs. Kyle Lowry +0.201 and John Lucas +0.023
- Ed Davis is at +.203 wins/48 mins ... vs. Alan Anderson +.022 or Andrea Bargnani -.148
- Rudy Gay is at -0.002 wins/48 mins ... vs. Landry Fields +.144
1. Losing Calderon: -3 wins to date
Kyle's added minutes for Jose is a small step down: 0.035 wins/48 ... maybe -0.5 wins.
The fact that John Lucas is playing instead of Jose/Kyle: let's say 600 of his 711 mins due to trade = -2.5 wins.
2. 'Gaining' Rudy Gay: -1 win to date
Playing Rudy Gay instead of Landry Fields costs 0.146/48 ... let's assume half Rudy's mins from Landry = -1 win
Rudy vs. Alan Anderson is a wash: if Rudy's minutes from Alan, then it's a wash.
3. Losing Ed Davis: -4 wins to date
We're seeing what seems like a lot more 'small ball' after losing Eddie Davis/Andrea.
It sounded like Andrea was going to be on the bench more, and Davis had earned right to play.
I'm going to guess around 700 more minutes for Ed vs. Andrea/AA: that's 0.263/48 = 3.8 call it 4 wins