# Stats: Why does no one look at variance?

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• Fri Apr 26th, 2013, 09:19 AM
Variance would likely correlate highly with win shares
• Fri Apr 26th, 2013, 03:15 PM
Ajar
You need to make sure to weight for minutes somehow, since minutes are one of the biggest factors in per-game stats. Basketball Reference provides per 36 numbers, which would be a simple way to control for that, or you could just work out the average minutes played for each player and then scale their per-game stats to that value. That way you account for outlier games where the guy who normally plays 15-20 mpg ends up playing 40 minutes, but only scores 20% more points than his ppg average.
• Fri Apr 26th, 2013, 11:24 PM
Hugmenot
I have incorporated year-to-year variance as a predictor of the future norm of a player. See posts 85 and 92 of the link below to see why I argued Nicolas Batum was a better target than Wilson Chandler in my opinion.

http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/forum...ighlight=Batum

I am sure many teams are looking at variance in much more details and have much more sophisticated predictive models. It's not something I expect to see published until teams acknowledge their base model no longer gives them an advantage over the competition.
• Tue Apr 30th, 2013, 03:17 AM
ezz_bee
I dislike any analysis based on averages alone, I find median (the middle number) and mode (the number that most often) to give you a far superior understanding of the data, as it gives you some insight into outliers.

For instance player A averages 22 pts /game but has a median of 10 points per game and a mode of 28 points per game
player B also averages 22pts/game but has a median of 20 points/game and a mode of 21 pts per game.

It's easy to see that player B is more consistent.

Any argument that averages work out over times also works out when including median and mode. I would love to see all stats broken down into average/median/mode for every category, and would tell you more about a player than just average alone.
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