There really isn't anything else for a third party to do besides carry on with their life. Unless you're talking about the few who keep hitting F5 on Twitter, RealGM WireTap or Hoopshype Rumor's hoping for some new developments. I don't think people like that were watching the Leafs games in the first place. If you were already watching the Leafs playoffs and they had held on in last 8 minutes of that game, it's more likely you're watching the next round than stalking Tim Leiweke.
Anyway, I don't care deeply about this so I'll stop now. I think the real truth to this is that if Leafs Playoffs was a legitimate reason to delaying a decision on Colangelo's fate, it probably had more to do with the fact that if he got fired while the Leafs were still in the Stanley Cup hunt, it wouldn't get enough media attention. You'd be watching Sportsnet and they'd have their usual 28 minutes of hockey analysis, and at the end the host would say "In other news, Tiger Woods won and Bryan Colangelo just got fired. Let's show some of Tiger's highlights."
Not to dwell on your comments but I think a few post before mine this was covered we fix one hole by getting Milsap and create another gapping hole at SG what sense does that make. And trading Derozan is not an option for me at this point with all the time invested in him and the growth he has made. Bargani is the trade chip, see what he yields you and then fill the other holes that are left after with min contracts.
Plus, a DeRozan-Millsap type deal would address the biggest need, which is PF depth. Acy is no more than a 3rd PF hustle guy at this point, who shouldn't be relied upon for big minutes. Acquiring Millsap would not only improve the starting lineup, but by bumping Johnson to the backup PF / 3rd big role, the 2nd unit would also be greatly improved.
As for Bargnani, he may be the top trade priority, but he's far from being the top (as far as value goes) trade chip. I seriously doubt he'd return near the same quality player that a guy like DeRozan would (ie: Millsap). If Bargnani could return good value, in terms of talent, picks and salary, he would've already been traded.
Exactly. Here are the scenarios:
Keeping DeRozan -
- starting SG begins his $38M/4year contract and is lacking the distance shooting and shot creation abilities needed at SG
- $18M devoted to the position next year, where only half of that is getting major minutes and other half rots on bench
- Amir Johnson as a starting PF is okay but not great
- puts pressure on JV
Trading DeRozan -
- $9M towards two players who should adequately fill what is needed at SG
- a starting PF that moves Amir to the bench where he's likely to excel/dominate
- takes significant pressure off JV
I'd rather have Fields/Ross try to fill the SG hole than Amir continuing to fill the PF hole.
If DeRozan is traded I would rather have Ross be thrown into the fire as the starting SG hes the long term answer not Fields when Fields contract expires I dont think Raps are going to extend especially if hes playing like how he is. DeRozan becoming the starter helped him a lot I think it would be the same deal with Ross.
realistically though DeRozan will still be here, the wing tandem of him alongside Gay will be given a run and the trade doesnt need to happen if they can make a couple of threes a game. The organization will be looking to shed Fields Bargs Klieza to free up some cash and give the bench wing primarily to Ross, because I assume either deMar or Gay will be soaking up a good 37 mins a game (likely DeMar)
Here's some stats to highlight the disparity between DD and Fields/Ross. Now these comparisons work head to head since DD played 37 minutes per game, and the Fields/Ross combo also played 37 minutes per game (20 Fields, 17 Ross).
So we immediately lose a bunch of offensive efficiency. How about getting to the line, which is even more important since it puts the other team in foul trouble and gets the Raps into the bonus?
FTM/FTA and FT%
DD 4.3/5.2 at .831
LF 0.7/1.0 at .642
TR 0.4/0.6 at .714
LF/TR combo 1.1/1.6 at .688
So we get 3.6 less FTA per game and 3.2 less made per game. This "adequate" combo of yours is not holding up so well.
Now lets check ORtg, in case I'm missing something.
Once again, DD is a big step better than his replacements, and TR has been more or less atrocious on offense (big dunks and not much else) so far. He's young and he'll get there, but it's most likely not going to be this coming season.
How about the 3 ball. That's our biggest gripe against DD's offensive game at the moment. Will the backups be able to improve our 3 point shooting?
3PTA/3PTM and 3PT%:
DD 0.4/1.5 at .283
LF 0.0/0.3 at .143
TR 0.9/2.7 at .332
LF/TR combo 0.9/3.0 at 0.3
Maybe you forgot how bad Fields shooting has been, but it's embarassing. Ross has a decent stroke, but he shoots a ton of them and is still hitting them at a low percentage. At least DD recognized it's a weak part of his game and didn't huck up a ton of bad 3's. The LF/TR combo is pretty close to the same as DD but just shooting a few more 3's. DD has already said that the 3 will be his main focus this offseason, and he has been getting better each year at it, so a reasonable projection would be for him to meet or exceed the LF/TR combo, so once again, no improvement from the "adequate" backups, but at least they don't hurt us here, they're just poor at shooting 3's like DD is.
Offensive is also facilitating for others, so lets check out assists.
Ast per game:
LF/TR combo 1.9
Nope, we actually get less assists from our two "adequate" backups in the same amount of minutes. Once again the offense suffers.
How about rebounds, they are important on both ends of the floor. Maybe the backups blow DD away in grabbing the ball.
Rbds per game:
LF/TR combo 6.1
Finally, something the backups improve on over DD. It's a nice jump up, but not too big. An extra 2 boards a game won't offset how much worse they make the offense compared to DD.
How about defense? Maybe the backups play much better defense than DD so their offensive shortcomings won't matter so much.
A very slight improvement on D, but hardly anything to write home about. Basically they are all inadequate defenders at this point. So the backups aren't going to make up for their offensive shortcomings with vastly improved D since they are more or less just as bad as DD on that end of the floor.
Maybe we can improve the PF position so much that it offsets how much worse we've made the SG position by trading away DD? Problem is, Amir is actually way more effective as a starter than off the bench. Just check out his game log. It seems like when Amir comes off the bench, he has much more of a tendency to foul. Maybe because he knows he's not being counted on for 30+ minutes so he's more aggressive. Either way, it leads to decreased output so I'm not seeing Amir off the bench offsetting the loss of DD in the starting lineup. When Amir started he had some monster games and I'd like to see a full season of him and JV starting. Then we could focus on bringing in someone like Carl Landry to bolster the bench PF spot, as opposed to trading away DD for a roughyl lateral move in Milsap (he's really not much better than Amir, if at all. Amir has a better Ortg, and rebounds better, with the same DRtg).
Now, I'm not saying we can't trade DD. Just that if we do, we need to be bringing in an upgrade at SG (or at least a comparable player with a different skillset). The current backups, who you claim are "adeqaute", aren't adequate at all. As for PF, outside of one of the star PF's, it'd be tough to bring in someone that is a significant upgrade over Amir. So, like I said above, probably more pragmatic to focus on bringing in a good backup PF to solidify that position. Amir as a starter at PF may not be the long term solution, but it's not so easy to find guys who are actually better than him at starting PF.
It's a good post Primer and I can't argue with those numbers, but those numbers are for what would have happened if we had thrust a rookie and an injured player into DeRozan's spot this past season.
Sorry to just end it there, I know you put a lot of work into your post.
I would counter with a few points:
1) Fields has shown an ability to hit the three. He had an undiagnosed nerve injury that turned his hand in to a claw. He made strides by the end of the season but obviously his shot was still shaky at best. After dealing with an injury for likely over a year, coming back in season and expecting him to return to his previous ways in 3-4 months is a bit unrealistic. I have faith that continuing rehab with an off season of getting his form correct will lead to improved results. If Ed Davis could fix his free throws, Fields can return to form on shot. And even if he can't get back to 38-39%, I think a return to low 30's is certainly possible.
2) DeRozan's defensive rating comes has always come with an asterisk for me. When have you ever seen DeRozan guard the other team's best perimeter player? Whenever DD is on the court AA, LF, TR, or RG will all guard the better perimeter defender. I could be wrong his but that is my perception and recollection.
3) You had a nice array of stats but one left out is win shares.
Wins per 48:
Points over Par per48:
*Fields produced nearly identical wins in 1/3 the minutes.
4) The needs of Toronto. DeRozan brings scoring and little else. With Gay, an emerging JV, a starting PF who can give you 16 per game (using the assumption DD returns a PF), and Lowry allowed to play more like his Rocket days than his Raptor days, you have a lot of scoring. I question the redundancy of DD and Gay in the manner they have been used. Putting Gay in the post more and taking more threes certainly lessens the redundancy.
5) DD's ineffectiveness without the ball. If DD does not have the ball or is not being spoon fed for a long jumper, what does he do for you? A guy like Fields can be extremely active and productive without the basketball.
6) Ross was a rookie. I expect a step up from him. I also think more punch and kick or inside/out with an extra pass is his style than curling off screens for 3 point shots. My recollection has him much more effective catching and shooting with his feet already set. On defense, as a rookie he is already better than DD and given more opportunity and experience I only see the difference widening.
Again, nice post but I don't think it is as much of a slam dunk as you make it out to be.
1.) I'd put a lot more faith in DD getting his 3pt shots above 30% than Fields being able to do so. DD has improved his 3pt shooting year over year (past 3 years .096, .261, .283). Fields has done the opposite (past 3 years .393, .256, .143). I hear you on the nerve damage thing and I'd be ecstatic if he could get his 3pt% back to respectable, but the fact is he has regressed significantly year over year while DD has improved, and is currently a much better 3pt shooter. Way too many "if's" come along with fields. "If" Fields is still as bad a 3pt shooter as he was this year, then Raptors fans will be calling for the head of the GM who traded away DD to start Fields. I'm way way more comfortable with DD in there. You can't have a SG who other teams don't need to guard, it kills the offense.
2.) I'm fine with the asterisks, as my main point isn't that DD is a good defender, it's that Fields and Ross aren't better defenders than DD. They'd need to be significantly better defenders than DD to offset how much significantly worse on offense they are.
3.) You don't have the correct stats in there for WS/48 (win shares per 48). From basketball reference.
DD, although producing a pretty bad WS/48, is still significantly better than both Fields and Ross. Fields has never had a WS/48 of better than 0.1 (his first year with Knicks), and its has gone down every year, whereas DD made a pretty big improvement from 2 years ago to last year.
Also, you have the incorrect win shares. Again from basketball reference.
Once again, DD comes in with a huge advantage in WS over Fields/Ross. Not sure where you got your stats, or if you meant something other than win shares, but this is the data from basketball reference (best stat site in my opinion).
4.) You think DD is redundant in the current offense, but you don't say how Fields or Ross are a better fit, you just poo poo on DD. You need to explain how the replacement of Fields/Ross is better. In my opinion, Fields can't shoot his way out of a paper bag and Ross needs another year or two of development. Right now DD is a much better fit because his man can't slack off him or he will be punished. You can leave Fields wide open anywhere except under the basket and pretty much be fine. On a hot night, DD can demand double teams. Fields has probably only ever commanded a double team in one of his dreams, he'll never be that player.
5.) I think Raps fans have created this illusion that Fields moves fantastically without the ball because we couldn't think of any other positive things to describe his play. He probably moves a bit better than DD, but it hardly produces anything, especially since he can't hit any shots unless he's right under the basket. Fields is most effective cutting under the basket looking for layups. DD can do so much more than Fields he doesn't need to just run cuts under the basket all the time like Fields does. We also feel comfortable giving DD the ball near the 3pt line and let him drive or pull up for a jumper. Fields can't do either of those things effectively.
6.) I also expect a big step up from Ross. I expect him to step into the backup SG role that Fields/AA were manning last year. He's clearly not ready to start, but he should be getting around 25 minutes a game if he progresses as expected. I'm not seeing his defense being much better than DD's. He runs around like a freaking loose cannon out there getting stupid fouls. He certainly has the potential to be a better defender than DD, but lets wait until we see it before we trade DD for a PF than we don't really need.
I think it's still a slam dunk, but I'm open to some more counters.
Follow up question, explain to me how Millsap is such an upgrade over Amir that it's worth trading DD for? I'm assuming that's who you're targeting as the PF to trade DD for. In my opinion, we'd get a bit more offense from Millsap at the expense of defense and rebounding. It would just force Amir to play a bunch more center in order to get minutes, where he is undersized and tends to get into foul trouble.
[QUOTE=Primer;208195]I think it's still a slam dunk, but I'm open to some more counters./QUOTE]
I guess if we're going to use basketball-reference, it probably makes sense to include all the stats you left out (Conveniently? Not that I blame you, since he's at the bottom for nearly all of them.) in the first post.
Oh jeez people. Whether DeMar has better stats or worse stats than Ross doesn't matter. It only takes common sense to know that Ross is nowhere near capable of starting, and that Ross will always be on the bench as long as Casey and/or DeMar is here. Why bicker about what stats they produce? It all seems so confusing to me.
1) Take away DD's #AprilFoolsGold performance and how is his 3pt shooting? You clearly glossed over the nerve injury with Fields. He didn't lose the skills he lost the physical ability. When the physical ability returns I expect the skill to as well. From a confidence perspective this has to be really important - there is a legit reason why he was unable to hit shots.
2) Ross and Fields are better defenders. There is more than one skill needed in basketball. Putting the ball in the hoops is a great skill but the Raptors have others who can do it.
3) Stats are from theNBAGeek.com
4) Ross and Fields are better fits because they can contribute and be threats without the basketball, DeRozan cannot or has not shown the ability. The Raptors already have 2 ball dominant players in Gay and Lowry. They also play much better defense. All your argument is based on offense. There are two sides to the ball.
5) I think you should watch games and look at game logs when given consistent minutes. Go to stats.NBA.com and look at the break down of shooting percentages of Fields and DD. DD clearly has many more attempts but it is interesting nonetheless and look at prior seasons.
6) If DD took the ball strong like Ross (i.e. had his athletic ability as well) and shot like Ross, DD would be an All-Star. Not sure how that fits in.
Check Millsap compared to DD. Amir produces off bench or starting. Amir can play both PF and C with either Millsap or JV. Look at Millsap's PER.
Amir's stat splits at C disagree with your statements.
Hopefully Fields blows my socks off and I get egg on my face, but then DD blows up too, so you get egg on your face, but we won't care because the Raps will be a solid playoff team with a bright future.
I have serious doubts about Fields. For one thing, I hate his contract. And second, when I hear someone saying "If he starts playing like he did back in..." I usually tune them out immediately.
Let me explain what I meant by adequately --
I never said we wouldn't miss a beat if we replaced DeRozan with these two guys. And I don't mean addition by subtraction either. By adequately, I mean good enough. With DeRozan's ceiling, I would predict that a combination of Fields/Ross going forward should equal what we need from that position in 2 years. I don't see the point in spending $27M on two guys who do the exact same things. It's the same reason why Indiana should consider moving forward without Danny Granger with the emergence of Paul George. It doesn't mean that the Pacers have no use for Granger, they absolutely could use his help and the his added depth. But it's more that you have an opportunity to re-allocate the money to areas that will strengthen your team overall. I don't follow the Pacers closely enough to tell you what those areas are, but we have plenty of holes to fill.
The team consisting of: JV, Amir, Gay, DeRozan and Lowry will win you about 38-40 games.
A team consisting of JV, Starting PF on a good team, Gay, Fields/Ross and Lowry has the potential of winning a lot more.