The fallacy of DeRozan's improving 3 point shooting!
The underlying argument for DeRozan fans is the hope and potential for the future based on a) his work ethic, and b) his improvements from year to year.
I can't argue the guys work ethic. I could argue his basketball IQ but I won't.
The real point of the thread is his improvements from year to year - specifically his 3pt shooting.
Before 3pt shooting, take a look at this:
I'm not sure there is drastic improvement in many areas. Certainly not enough to make one say, "He has continuously improved every year in the league" from a statistical standpoint.
Lets look specifically at his 3pt shooting:
year 1: 25% on 0.2 attempts per game (4/16)
year 2: 9.6% on 0.6 attempts per game (5/52)
year 3: 26.1% on 1.5 attempts per game (24/92)
year 4: 28.3% on 1.5 attempts per game (34/120)
Alright, looks good. Obvious regression from year 1 to year 2 combined with obvious improvement from year 2 to year 3 and 3 to 4 on more attempts each year. Awesome!
But what happens if we:
1) remove DeRozan's first 6 games of year 3 where he shot 10 for 16?
year 3 becomes: 18.4% on 0.75 attempts per game (14/76) in 57 games
2) remove DeRozan's final 3 games of year 4 where he shot 9/12?
year 4: 23.1% on 0.73 attempts per game (24/108) in 79 games
Essentially if you remove 9 of 145 games (first 6 and last 3) from year 3 and 4, the statistics become much less encouraging for DeRozan's "hope" and "potential" at the 3pt shot over a much larger sample of 136 consecutive games.
I'd love nothing more than to proven incorrect on DeRozan's potential moving forward - just like I was with the notion of building around Bargnani. But even if he does improve his 3pt shooting SIGNIFICANTLY, he is still below average in rebounding, assists, and defense with little signs of consistent improvement over the last 4 seasons.