I have stated that I understand the allure and potential benefits of tanking, so I just expect the pro-tankers to openly admit the extreme amount of risk and luck involved with an all-out tanking strategy. The way some pro-tankers talk on RR (not necessarily you specifically), all Toronto needs to do is decide to tank and, voila, Wiggins will be automatically be a Raptor and is absolutely guaranteed to fulfill the once-in-a-generation, franchise-altering hype that surrounds him. I'm sorry, but it's not that simple.
CONS TO TANKING
- many teams doing it, plus some teams will just suck naturally
- even if Toronto was the only team tanking, having a bottom-3 record is not a sure thing
- even if Toronto finishes with a bottom-3 record, getting a top-3 pick is not a sure thing (lottery luck)
- even if Toronto wins the lottery, there's no guarantee that the draft pick will fulfill potential
- lots of talent/potential will be dumped in favor of draft picks, with no guarantee that drafted players will ever be better than players traded away
- another season of [deliberate] losing will turn off more fans
- another season of [deliberate] losing will turn off some agents/free agents (and Toronto is already not a highly desirable landing spot)
- another season of [deliberate] losing, followed by anything short of the draft pick(s) becoming a superstar/all-star caliber player, will be met with lots of blowback from fans/media/players/agents/free agents
- with all the teams tanking this upcoming season, quite a few of them are going to come away from the 2014 draft sorely disappointed, with relatively nothing of significance to show for their year of tanking
- failed tanking results in the team having far fewer tradeable assets at their disposal for rebuilding (having traded them all away for expiring contracts and draft picks), which is only magnified for teams that aren't top free agent destinations (ie: Toronto)
I just can't see TL/MU adopting tanking as their strategy, given all of the above, when you consider that they were brought in to turnaround the culture/indentity/perception of a perpetually losing franchise. It just doesn't make any logical sense to me, because tanking is far from a guaranteed success, especially this upcoming season. I think it makes more sense for MU to be an opportunistic vulture, to grab young/talented players that other teams are casting off as they go all-in with tanking.
The difference between Rudy potentially having a career year next year and Bargnani doing it is Rudy doesn't have the entire arena of Raptor fans booing him every time he takes the court.
I'm personally not in favour of tanking next season, but to add fuel to the fire for tankers let's assume the Raptors tanked and missed out on a stud (due to injury; got a bad pick; or just screwed up the draft).... well the Grizzlies tanked for Lebron, and because of their stupid protection their pick went to Detroit.
Memphis had a 28-46 record in 2002-2003.
Memphis had a 50-32 record in 2003-2004.
There was not much significant roster movement, but turned things around based on organic growth alone.
So even if the Raptors do tank, and miss out on a stud, they could still theoretically rebound and become a playoff team the next season.
Comment From Kyle
Who are the Cavaliers actually interested in trading for? Chris Grant has been all talk but no action these past couple of years.
Sam Amico: I don't think the Cavs are ready to give up on LaMarcus Aldridge -- especially after the rumors that he wants out of Portland. But I really think the Cavs need to make a splash this summer. Or at least a ripple. And I can tell you, Grant is trying, man. He's trying. But he sure isn't gonna tell me what he's doing, and I can't say I blame him.
Cavs aren't tanking
Comment From Kevin
So im guessing you think the Raptors tank, like many other teams?
Sam Amico: Wait, back to Kevin's Raptors question. Yes, I think they're all in for 2014-15.
i don't think anyone here is saying tanking is a 100% guarantee for anything nor is anyone here saying its 'simple' or as stupid as 'tank for wiggins!'
but i'd still take 'deliberate losing' and potentially gaining picks rather than 'just losing cause we're mediocre and not gaining anything'. obviously if MU can pull off some magical trading opportunities that'd be even better.
The only way "tanking" makes sense is if Masai can arrange to have about $20 million cap space in 2015/2016 or the season after, and gets a couple of lottery picks and two additional picks in next years draft, and/or lottery picks in consecutive years. But I would say it has to be three picks next year and two in the lottery. Then you have trade chips for 2015/2016 plus cap space and you can remake the team in one off-season.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Kyle Korver is staying with Atlanta on four-year deal worth estimated $24 million, sources tell ESPN</p>— Marc Stein (@ESPNSteinLine) <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNSteinLine/statuses/352591403194400769">July 4, 2013</a></blockquote>
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It would appear Atlanta is not tanking unless they are locking up an asset to trade before the deadline.
I'm very surprised by this.
what do you do with gay in 2 offseasons by the way if he puts up same numbers and he’s the best player on our team and we just spent two seasons finishing 6-8 and getting creamed in the first round? he’s not taking a 5 mil per paycut down to what he’s actually worth. not after he just led us to false relevancy. this scenario scares the crap out of me.
would also take a season ending injury to a franchise player of a far superior team, just like it did for philly.
chris, so if you've given away all your legit player assets, except JV, for expirings and draft picks, what do you have to "trade" to get anything of value if JV performs like that? You have no tradeable players apparently, they'd all be FAs. Trade all the draft picks ya got back to teams that will give you worse than you gave, or tell Jonas not to worry, trust us, we'll have a real team with a few more drafts and 6 more years of developing the high schoolers we have our eyes on?
If we keep Gay, I honestly think we're just drifting right back to mediocrity. This franchise simply does not know how to properly rebuild a team, mainly thanks to Mr. Colangelo. He never did a full rebuild, what he did was retooling. The problem is, when you're not a play-off team, you can't exactly retool that team. Gay and DeRozan just don't fit together very well, they make each other redundant because they have the same style of play: inefficient slashers. One of them needs to go, and it could probably be Gay because of his huge contract. We need to aim for picks in return though, preferably in next year's draft. If we can those picks from a team that is possibly interested in Gay (eg. Pistons, Timberwolves, Kings), then I say take them. We could use those picks to trade up further in the draft, depending on our position.
Also, depending on what other moves the Raps make, I believe this team could still sneak into the play-offs, even if Gay or DeRozan are traded. A line-up of Lowry, Ross, DeRozan, (or Ross and Gay), Johnson, and Valanciunas, with (just some possibilities) Dragic, Fields, Novak, Robin Lopez, Derrick Williams, or whatever we get back from those trades, coming off the bench, we could sneak into the play-offs as the 8th seed, and still get an okay pick in the draft. We'll have to trust Masai on this, there are many different ways this organization could head into, we'll just have to wait and see.
we should have quite a fuckin haul from those of us delusional enough to think rudy gay is worth the number one overall pick plus tristan thompson.
that's just for white men can't jump's hypothetical where JV turns into one of the best players in the league.
the other possibility is that he's not quite at that level and we are pretty bad and actually use the draft picks we acquire and build through the draft for a couple of years. like cleveland or washington.
and of course the possibility exists that that just doesn't work out for us. i can live with that. i'd rather give it a shot then stick to the treadmill. and i do think that if you're patient enough you'll end up with talent even if you suck at evaluating it, like minnesota.
But even if we don't count Curry as "elite", are the Warriors contenders? Or are they just another Atlanta Hawks (i.e. 2nd round fodder at best), who we're desperately trying to avoid becoming?