sure theres no guarantee in drafting a star, but whats the guarantee in grabbing young players from other teams then, especially if you have to give up your own assets/players/picks to do so? or are you expecting other teams to just magically give up young talented players for next to nothing?
secondly, why would any team actually give up young, talented players when clearly thats what every team is after? on top of having to get rid of current assets? bargnani was the best trade chip we had in terms of losing a low priority asset and gaining back picks. now who else can we afford to lose? DD? gay?
I've never said that there wasn't risk/luck involved in other team building strategies, including retooling. However, I don't buy into the unknown future players automatically being better and/or more tradeable than the current players on the roster. I believe that there are some good pieces already on the roster, which could be contributors on a successful team. There are lots of players that need to be upgraded, but there are also lots of players that I believe have real trade value around the league. My preference is to use the current roster as the starting point for building an improved roster designed to compete (not just treadmill for 1st round exits) in a sustainable fashion, rather than completely blow-up the team and hope that draft picks will result in a starting point that is any better than the current roster.Quote:
I have stated that I understand the allure and potential benefits of tanking, so I just expect the pro-tankers to openly admit the extreme amount of risk and luck involved with an all-out tanking strategy. The way some pro-tankers talk on RR (not necessarily you specifically), all Toronto needs to do is decide to tank and, voila, Wiggins will be automatically be a Raptor and is absolutely guaranteed to fulfill the once-in-a-generation, franchise-altering hype that surrounds him. I'm sorry, but it's not that simple.
Atlanta is really interesting right now.
They are clearly not tanking having signed Korver and Millsap to big deals.
The signing of Millsap would strongly suggest Smith is not back.
Do they sign and trade Smith?
What happens with Horford? Horford always said he wanted to play PF but with Millsap, no question he is the C. Is Horford available?
I have a feeling that Atlanta is doing what Milwaukee is doing.. ie, doing what they can to make the playoffs. Horford therefore is probably not tradeable, which sucks.
On my watch these are the teams that are legitimately tanking next season:
Boston, Philly, Utah, Sacramento and Orlando.
These are the teams that will probably be in the lottery:
Charlotte, Cleveland, Phoenix, LAL, Dallas, and Portland
These are the teams probably on the bubble:
Milwaukee, Detroit, Atlanta, Denver, NOLA, Minnesota, Toronto
For those in favour of tanking.. I think it's going to be really difficult to out lose some of these teams.
the worst part is that when we go on an unexpected run this year and find ourselves in the 7th seed we're going to be excited and think we're so great rather than the truth which is everyone else is so bad
But lets see what happens with Josh Smith first.
If Asik ends up in Atlanta, I would not be surprised to see Horford moved given the Millsap signing.
I can't see ATL paying Millsap $9.5M to be 3rd big in rotation nor can I see Millsap accepting such a short term contract (2 years) to be a backup.
It's so hard to figure out trade scenarios as trade machine is in limbo....but it doesn't seem that crazy to me.
Something where the basis for a 3-team deal is....
Toronto gets: Horford
Houston gets: Smith
Atlanta gets: Asik and DeMar
Obviously Atlanta would probably get a pick or two (I'm thinking a 1st and 2nd, and one from each of Houston and Toronto), a young player like maybe Jones (which in that case I think Toronto would have to give up a 1st...hopefully that newly gained 2016 pick)....
It would give a team in Atlanta of....
Teague (assuming re-signed)
6th man: Williams
Now, that isn't spectacular, but it's a fairly exciting lineup, which also provides a rudimentary core even if they suck and end up in the high lottery. I mean, even if you threw Jabari Parker, and not Wiggins, into the SF spot, and moved Korver to the bench, that could be a pretty strong team pretty fast, with pieces that could be flipped to make improvements. And that's pretty idealistic, but given that no piece is one you ahve to be attached to, it makes it easy to make changes. Draft Randle and you have a solid big rotation, or you trade Millsap for a SF (or whatever...something like that). Draft Harrison/Smart and you can deal Teague. No piece is useless or worthless. *And that's not even counting any extra draft picks they get in dealing Smith and Horford.
I don't entirely agree with your analysis. Let me break it down as follows:
First, let's define the terms, because people here use "tank" to mean different things and "retool" and "rebuild" are all ambiguous. So, for the purpose of this post:
Tank means "purposefully lose in order to get a better draft pick."
Retool means "trade assets for assets of approximately equivalent value in order to better compete in this year's playoffs."
Rebuild means "trade assets for assets of approximately equivalent value in order to better compete in future years."
So one can tank as part of a rebuild. And so:
DEFINITELY TANKING: Boston, Philly and Utah, who are all tanking in the proper sense of purposefully sacrificing one year in order to attempt a proper rebuild (e.g. taking on other teams unwanted contracts and giving away their own best assets in exchange for draft picks, young prospects and cap space).
Phoenix is also very likely tanking - their only major move was trading away Jared Dudley for Eric Bledsoe and they can still move Goran Dragic - but their rebuild is much less impressive than Bos/Phi/Utah because they have next to no assets that other teams value.
Orlando isn't exactly tanking. They'll be a lottery team, definitely, and they're not trying to make playoffs this year, but they're essentially finished the worst part of their rebuild; they've got a good young core (Affalo, Harris, Harkless, Oladipo, Doron Lamb, Andrew Nicholson) and they'll only have $21 million in salary commitments next year. They might trade Big Baby for some assets, because he's not really crucial to their longterm plan and somebody will want him, but for the most part they're going to use this year as a development year, and development years aren't quite the same thing as tanking.
TRYING TO MAKE PLAYOFFS:
As a general rule, if a team signs a relatively marquee free agent, they're aiming to compete. With that in mind...
The most interesting team here is Charlotte, who are clearly trying to make moves to get them into the playoffs (signing Al Jefferson, amnestying Tyrus Thomas). It's weird with 2014 being such a packed draft year, you'd think Charlotte would say "oh, what's one more year" but they have been so abysmally terrible for so long that it looks like management has gone all-in on win-now, or at least trying to win now. And here's the thing: they have a bunch of good young players (Kemba Walker, MKG, potentially Cody Zeller) and a few good vets (Jefferson, Ramon Sessions). They COULD make a run. It's not likely and they should really tank instead, but they're not going to do that, it looks like.
Cleveland has an excellent young core and a lot of assets they can move - they can trade any of Thompson, Varajao, Zeller or even Bennett if they think it gives them a significant upgrade, plus they still have a wealth of future picks from other teams and their own picks as well. Cleveland wants to make playoffs, they've been talking about it extensively.
Washington is clearly competing (and should make playoffs): they resigned Martell Webster, signed Eric Maynor and Garrett Temple to bolster their bench. They're solid.
Portland has quietly been having an excellent offseason, landing Thomas Robinson and Robin Lopez for basically next to nothing and signing Dorell Wright to a bargain contract. Portland collapsed last year because their bench was terrible and they've been addressing that. They might not make playoffs, but they're going to make a serious run.
Dallas signed Gal Mekel and Jose, so they have point guard locked down. Cuban has money to commit and he's apparently planning to roll the dice on Andrew Bynum. They're competing.
Atlanta is planning to compete: they re-signed Kyle Korver and signed Paul Millsap, and those aren't deals you cut if you're tanking. They're probably not going to bother re-signing Josh Smith and are resigned to a sign-and-trade, but if they get a good asset from Houston (Omer Asik, say) then they're not going to bother worrying, and the market for point guards has dried up in the last couple of days as most teams that were looking have covered their needs, so they should resign Jeff Teague.
Minnesota clearly figures they will be healthy this year, and they signed Kevin Martin and Chase Budlinger to that end (and still have room). They're competing.
Detroit is all-in on competing because you don't try to get Rudy Gay, even with a lowball offer, if you aren't trying to compete, and they were courting Josh Smith and Iguodala for the same reason. They've been bad for a while and want to make playoffs, they have lots of good young players (Monroe, Drummond, Knight, KCP).
Denver will almost certainly make playoffs so they're not even "trying to compete," they're just competing. NOLA is in the same boat.
ON THE BUBBLE:
The Lakers are here. They could make a run: after all, we're still talking about the Lakers here, and Pau is apparently healthy again. You can never count Kobe out, and Kobe doesn't want to tank because he's Kobe. If Kobe is healthy this year, they'll probably do their best to compete. If Kobe isn't... well, maybe they say "wait one year, Kobe, get better, and 2014-15 is going to be when we return to the throne. We'll sign LeBron, just watch."
Sacramento has been trying to make big moves in this offseason and hasn't been able to pull them off, and there's still some decent free agents to sign, plus they snagged Greivis Vasquez in the sign-and-trade and that was a decent return for Tyreke leaving. They haven't started tanking yet, but they could.
Milwaukee is just doing whatever the fuck, I don't know. OJ Mayo is a good player but do they think he helps them make playoffs? When they throw too much money at Brandon Jennings, is that their plan? Milwaukee isn't tanking; they're just sucking, but in the sort of way that's counterproductive and of which Toronto has far too much experience.
And, of course, there's us.
So, if Toronto decides on a serious tank/rebuild, who do we target? The answer is always "people who are willing to overpay you because they desperately want to make playoffs," and those teams come in two tiers: the truly desperate (Charlotte, Cleveland, Detroit, Dallas) and the less desperate but still willing (Portland, maybe LA, maybe Washington, maybe Sacramento). As a general rule, you aim for the first group.
Charlotte and Cleveland should be our primary targets: they both want to make playoffs, they both have a wealth of picks (Charlotte's are probably better), they can both afford to give us a good young prospect for the sake of a major upgrade (and maybe Aaron Gray - don't underrate the value of a solid defensive backup center on an expiring deal), and they both have expiring contracts they can deal to us (Charlotte has the best one in Ben Gordon's $12m deal). Also, Charlotte has a terrible front office, and that is good for us.
Detroit has expiring contracts and good young players, but is not pick-wealthy; they're an acceptable second option. Dallas can give us picks (not great ones, but 2014 at least) and expiring deals, and maybe even a promising (and cheap) young player like Ricky Ledo or Jae Crowder; they're a good target too.
EDIT: Detroit just signed Josh Smith, so we should strike them as a trade partner now.
So magoon,,,, you've listed a bunch of teams that you feel the Raps could target, to unload assets and ensure a tank. Since you're so sold on the Raps following this course of cheating the game, the players, the coaches, the fans in the seats,,,, what suggestions do you have with these teams, of who the Raps should trade, and for what? Rather than generalized pie-in-the-skying, it would be interesting to discuss real scenarios that you would recommend.
1. Rudy Gay to Cleveland. Cleveland has the clearest need of a quality SF right now: unlike all their other positions, their SF rotation right now is relatively weak. Sergey Karasev might end up being really solid, but he's a rookie; Alonzo Gee is your prototypical NBA space-filler. We package Rudy along with Marcus Camby (a quality backup defensive center, which is a minor need for the Cavs right now) and the rights to Tomislav Zubcic, and take back Gee, one of Tristan Thompson or Anthony Bennett (probably Thompson), and picks: Cleveland's own 2014 first-rounder has to be one of them, and then either some second-rounders or maybe that protected Sacramento first-round pick that probably won't ever pan out for Cleveland anyway (since it's top-10 protected until 2017 and, well, Sacramento).
Cleveland does this because it nails down the weakest element in their rotation (plus shores them up at center) and turns them from a 7-8 seed contender into maybe a 5-6 contender, an Eastern equivalent of Golden State in many ways. All they give up is depth at one of their stronger positions. We do this because we get good-but-not-great picks (which in 2014 should be better than average), a Canadian-born power forward with a lot of upside (whether it is Thompson or Bennett, either way) which will excite fans when we're having a developmental season, and Alonzo Gee's expiring contract.
1a. Rudy Gay to Charlotte. Charlotte is going to make a bit of a run and they need talent to do it. They're reasonably well-stocked for bigs (Al Jefferson, Josh McRoberts, Bismack Biyombo), shooting guards (Gerald Henderson) and point guards (Kemba Walker and Ramon Sessions), but they need a small forward - Michael Kidd-Gilchrist may well become a great player, he's got all the tools to become a great player, but he sure as hell isn't there yet. Trading MKG for Rudy, from Charlotte's perspective, is skipping five years of development to get the end product right away. This trade works out much in the same way that the Cleveland trade does: we send them Rudy, Steve Novak (instantly providing Charlotte with a SF platoon) and the rights to Zubcic (to sweeten it a bit), we take away MKG and Ben Gordon (who hates playing for Charlotte, so removing him is actually doing Charlotte a favour, even though he is an expiring contract) and we want 2014 picks. Charlotte has three: their own, Detroit's (protected 1-8) and Portland's (protected 1-12). We want Charlotte's own pick and one of the other two - probably the Portland pick, since it's the more likely to fall into protection and therefore less problematic for Charlotte to trade because with the Detroit pick Charlotte still gets a first-rounder in 2014.
For us, we've turned 22m of salary into 15m, 12 of which goes away next year, and now we have the opportunity to have Terrence Ross and MKG battle it out at shooting guard to see who our starting SG of the future is, maybe run some dual-SG smallball lineups - and we can trade whichever one we don't need later in the season if we like.
2. DeMar DeRozan to Dallas. Dallas needs players, period. They have their PG rotation locked up (Jose and Gal Mekel, plus Shane Larkin as a third), they've got Dirk at PF, they're probably going to sign Bynum at center, they've got Shawn Marion at SF and Vince as a sixth man, but they don't have a starting SG (Ricky Ledo is a promising rookie but he's not starter-ready) and all of the quality free agent SGs have already signed with other teams. DeMar can fill that role. Jose knows how to work with him already (and they work well together), and DeMar becomes a solid second scoring option behind Dirk.
This is a simple, straightforward purchase. We send DeMar for Dallas' 2014 first-rounder and one of either Jae Crowder or Ricky Ledo if we can manage to get them as well (probably we can't, but it's worth trying). The pick should be a middle-first-rounder: Dallas either sneaks into the bottom of the Western Conference playoffs, or they get stuck at the bottom of the lottery like this past year. Either way it's just the sort of pick Dallas hates having and always ends up trading until they're forced to draft: see this year, where they traded the #13 to Boston for the #16 and then traded THAT to Atlanta for the #18 and then drafted Shane Larkin because nobody was interested in the #18 in time for them to avoid drafting.
This trade works because we trade DeMar, who has great spirit and team ethic but simply doesn't justify his salary based on his level of play, to a team that spends money like nuts, with someone who knows how he plays and can make best use of him. We have Ross as an SG starting option already and he needs burn. If we get Jae Crowder, we get a decent young swing 3/4 who's like Quincy Acy except he's basically better at everything Acy does. If we get Ledo, we have another "fight for starting SG battle" season as in the Charlotte trade.
3. Kyle Lowry to Detroit. Detroit doesn't have a good pure point guard; Brandon Knight is a combo guard. Detroit also doesn't have anybody who can truly provide floor spacing for their impressive bigs: KCP is unproven and he's their best hope. Lowry helps address both of these problems.
(It should be noted that at this point Lowry is easily the hardest player of the three tradeable assets we have to trade; most of the teams seriously aiming for the playoffs have point guards locked up already, and Lowry has a bit of a primadonna reputation now.)
Send Lowry and Steve Novak to Detroit; get back Charlie Villaneuva, Rodney Stuckey and KCP. Detroit now has two proven shooters, rather than one unproven one. We get more expiring salary and a promising rookie who, again, can battle Ross for starting SG and again we can flip one if need be.
If we execute all three of these trades (sending Rudy to Cleveland), we would have a rotation of
PG: Stuckey/Stone/somebody else (Kabongo?)
Fill it out with some veterans, and that's a solid developmental team that won't make playoffs but will get better over a season. And also, we have:
1. Salary commitments of only $27 million at the end of 2013, so plenty of room to chase free agents
2. Our first-round draft pick in 2014 (should end up being top 8), plus the first-rounders of Cleveland and Dallas (should both be 13-17), plus maybe the Sacramento pick if Sacramento makes a serious run
It's your choice to disregard what you call moralizing, but just to make clear: I can guarantee that the Raptors organization feels the need to honour the competiveness of the players and coaches, and the money of the fans in the seats, long before they worry about what you, and a bunch of internet kids, would "much rather watch". And if you're not happy about that, or can't live with it, I'd suggest you might serve your needs better by finding another team, or hobby. When i speak of such considerations, I'm speaking to real world issues that NBA management teams and owners have to address.
Now, you might think these "trades" are the best potential for the Raptors, but I might rank all but the Lowry one among the least possible, which is not difficult to explain.
First I have to address "Cleveland has the clearest need of a quality SF right now". "Clearest need" out of who? 1/2 the league is in need of a quality SF right now, and way more than 1/2 the league for one capable of reasonable defense of the likes of Lebron, KD, and Paul George. You know, pro-tank people keep shouting about wanting to compete for championships. Newsflash: If you're going to compete, you need to get through those guys and Rudy is one of the few with the size, length and athleticism to deal with these guys, and even make them work on D. Do you forget how long we've been without a quality SF? Quality wings are at a premium these days, and combined with our history since VC, it's why wings were targetted in recent drafts. First DD, then Ross, a couple of developing kids, top 9 draft picks we already have. It's a bummer we lost the coin flip and lost Barnes, but at the beginning of last year, SF was our glaring need still, like many other teams. Just saying. MANY teams need a quality SF, and we've needed one for a long time. We have one now, but you want to trade him away
before we have a chance to see what he can do on this team,,,,,,,,, for futures (a.k.a. future fantasies of a gaggle of high school kids being NBA superstars). Personally, I disagree that this is even remotely wise, but thanks for responding with your suggestions. Let's have a look at them.
"1. Rudy Gay to Cleveland............."
First off, both Bennett and the Cavs have spoken of utilizing Bennett at SF (he's rather short for PF, which is part of why everybody was surprised that he was picked #1). They just further added to that position by signing 25 year old Earl Clark
for 2 years. They're actually now looking deep at the position. Doesn't look to me that they have the least sights on Rudy, but you think they'd want to take Rudy, for possibly only 1 year (do you actually think they think they're going to challenge Miami, even Chicago, Indy, Brooklyn this year??) of Rudy and give us one of 2 current very high draft picks, that they thought so highly of that that took both way out of their expected turn, plus their 1st pick in the highly touted 2014 draft, plus more draft picks, possibly another 1st in 2014???? Ya gotta be kidding!!!! And on what basis do you say the Cavs are currently a 7-8 seed (hahahahahahaha) and would give up all those 1st rounders for possibly 1 year of Rudy and a 5-6 seed (hahahaha)??? Their draft pick is going to be higher than that, and they damn well know it too. Just what fantasy and/or video games have you been killing it in, and how dumb are your opponents? You're being very unreralistic, lad. You provided some elaborate "reasoning", and I use that word lightly here, but to borrow your phrase, it's bullshit, fantasy games bullshit. Hey, keep up the vivid imagination, but don't take it too seriously. The NBA is operating in a real world of professionals running big business NBA teams, not fantasy games.
"1a. Rudy Gay to Charlotte............."
Here we go again. Charlotte going on a bit of a run"????? What the hell are you talking about? A new head coach, who has yet to work with this really bad team, and the addition of Al Jefferson and you think a 21 win team is going to go on a run???? WTF??? Sorry, but hahahahahaha. Yeah, they need talent all right. A lot more than an SF to replace the #2 pick they made last year, who probably has the most upside on their entire team right now. But you think they're so hyped about the "run" they can make that they're going to trade their #2 pick sophomore, plus 2 1st round picks in 2014. *shaking my head*. More fantasy bullshit not even bordering on a semblance of reality.
At this point, I'd say both your reasoning, as well as your fantasy hopes of returns for Rudy, are so far out to lunch, it's mind boggling.
"2. DeMar DeRozan to Dallas.............."
So you think Demar is a quality SG that would interest Dallas to be "a solid second scoring option", but feel that we don't have room for such a solid scoring option that is only 23, "who has great spirit and team ethic", because you feel his 2013/14 play, that you don't know about, doesn't justify his salary. Wake me up from this nightmare of yours when you start to make some sense, to say nothing of your assessment of Ross. I'm optimistic of what Ross can turn into, but what basis do you have to say he is a "starting option already"??? Nothing that happened last season lends the least bit of credence to that, so do tell how you say this is a factor in your desire to move DeMar for a not so great draft pick. A silly (downright stupid actually) proposition for the Raps to begin with, but why would currently low spending Dallas commit to overspending (according to you, but not reality) on DeMar for a 4 year committment, which could hamper their direction to signing big FAs??? Note: you seem to have a distorted view of "big spending" Dallas. In case you haven't noticed, they've been trying hard to go the low spending route over the past couple of years, so they have the cap room to sign big name FAs. They've trimmed themselves so much
that prior to some recent low cost signings, the only player they had on the books for 2014/15 was Dirk. They're still going low cost as in Harris (their SG) for $3M/yr, Mekel at minimum, and even Jose at $7M/yr, which is low for a starting PG.
I'm not even going to get into your expert opinion of Dallas's approach to draft picks, because at this point, none of your logic/reasoning makes sense for either Dallas or the Raps, so fail on DeMar too.
"3. Kyle Lowry to Detroit.............."
So you want to send out our only proven PG, and one of the best value contracts in the league, for much higher priced garbage and an unproven 8th pick in a very weak draft, to compete with our 8th pick in a stronger draft, that hasn't proven a damn thing either. Mind boggling stupidity, despite being the only one of your trades that seems even remotely possible.
At the end of the day, what you call a solid development team is mind boggling, but here's another thing: if you go with your alternative option for Gay (which I also see as pie-in-the-sky unreality), according to your moves, we have Fields for our SF, and Ross/MKG/KCP fighting it out for SG, and another undersized SG (Stuckey) playing PG. What the hell opportunity for develop (with nothing but garbage and unproven kids around him) do you think JV sees in this set up???? The kid can't develop surrounded by garbage!!! What, you're going to promise him that the high school kids you have your eye on will be available when you draft, and ready for NBA super-stardom in 4-5 years? I'd bet you'd have one very pissed 21 year on your hands, wanting out of this stupidity ASAP.
I thank you again for giving these examples for a "plan". It demonstrates just how out of touch with reality some of you tank-and-pray proponents are.
PS. As a final note:
If someone had said mid way through this past season, that in a few months, BC would be gone, AB would be gone, and we'd have a quality SF on board for the first time since VC, who wouldn't have been ecstatic? Yet it has all happened, and you tank-and-pray kids can't enjoy it for long enough to give the new GM a chance to take a breath and start working on a plan based on reality. Fucking mind boggling. Whiney, self-entitled children, sheeeesh.
Whatever happened to people discussing ideas without being total assholes?
There are lots of places to post ideas littered with insults.
Too bad this is turning into one of those places.