Draft Prospect Similarity Scores
This is Ian from Hickory-High. Forgive me if you've already come across this somwhere else, but I wanted share a new tool I've built. It's a system for making statistical comparisons between draft prospects and players drafted from other seasons. The system produces similarity scores, something Basketball-Reference and others have used in the past. The players are compared across a number of categories and a score is generated on a scale of 0-1000, 1000 being a perfect match. For example, Kemba Walker's closest comparables were Troy Bell-892, Eric Maynor-884, and Devin Harris-882.
It's similar to systems that Kevin Pelton and John Hollinger use, although mine is obviously a lot less refined. I believe Hollinger's system is a straight projection of NBA performance. Pelton's system compares college players to NBA players to try and predict a career arc. Mine is simply a snapshot of a moment in time: Player A's college production most closely resembles Player B's. It doesn't account for things like potential, personality, athleticism, etc.; other than how they manifest in a player's statistical production. For that reason it's limited in projecting how successful a player may be. I also haven't figured out how to convert Euroleague stats, so at this time it just covers college players.
I have a table of contents page set-up with an explanation of the whole system. All the results are finished and can be accessed in a spreadsheet from that page. I've also built individual pages for all of the 40 prospects I included this season. Each page has links to a few profiles and then a table showing the 10 closest comparisons. Again, the whole thing has some limitations, but I think the positives still outweigh the negatives. Hopefully it can be a useful tool, or at the very least an interesting read.