I think we can all agree that the NBA draft is more important in terms of teams fortunes than in MLB NFL or NHL. Here's how I would do it...
LY DR= Last Year's Draft Ranking
3Y DR= Draft Ranking based on average of last 3 seasons
MW DR= My Weighted 3 year average Draft Ranking (65% last season, 20% 2009-2010, 15% 2008-2009)
Team LY DR 3Y DR MW DR
Minnesota 1 1 1
Washington 4 3 2
Sacramento 5 2 3
New Jersey 6 4 4
Toronto 3 7 5
LA Clipper 8 5 6
Detroit 7 8 7
G.State 11 6 8
Cleveland 2 22 9
Indiana 12 10 10
Charlotte 9 13 11
Milwaukee 10 14 12
New York 16 9 13
Philadelphia 15 11 14
Memphis 19 12 15
Utah 13 19 16
Phoenix 14 18 17
NO 20 16 18
Houston 17 17 19
Atlanta 18 20 20
OkC 24 15 21
Portland 21 24 22
Denver 22 25 23
Miami 28 23 24
Orlando 23 29 25
Chicago 30 21 26
Dallas 26 26 27
Boston 25 28 28
San An 29 27 29
LA Lakers 27 30 30
I think a weighted 3 year average makes sense. How you did last year should be more important than how you did 3 seasons ago, but still allows some historical influence.
I would still do a lottery for the bottom 14 teams using the same method the NBA currently uses. Teams like Toronto and Cleveland don't get as screwed as they would under a straight 3 year average, and teams on the rise like Chicago and Miami pick in the mid-late 20's.
I thought about creating a new post just to give Matt an aneurism, (and then have it moved after a few days) simply because I have said it over and over and over...
Draft age likely to increase
It is entirely likely(probable) that regardless of how the $ and cap negotiations play out, the age of draftees in the coming CBA will be increased to 20yrs old and 2yrs in college (2yrs removed from HS).
This ELIMINATES at least 9 top prospects from next years 'stellar' draft class. Those names include many often repeated desireable players to Toronto by fans on RR (+others):
Anthony Davis (PF) (projected #1 - not that I think he would actually end up there anyway)
Quincy Miller (SF)
James Mcadoo (SF)
Michael Gilchrest (SF)
Bradley Beal (SG)
Austin Rivers (SG/PG)
Adonis Thomas (SF)
Myck Kabongo (PG)
Marquis Teague (PG)
Lebryan Nash (SF)
Evan Fournier (SG/SF)
The Raptors would either need a top 3 pick, if not the top pick to ensure a Harrison Barnes pick since any players that push him down the board possibly won't be in the draft; or for the lockout to extend the entire season so the one and done players can still enter the draft thereby allowing the truly talented draft so many expect.
That "top prospect" board is going to change dozens of times before the next draft takes place. The NCAA season and March Madness always has a huge impact on how the actual draft plays out. There are guys not being mentioned as top dogs right now who may be by June of next year so even if the age limit goes up that does not mean the draft will be weak.
By the way, right now Draftexpress.com shows this in their 2012 mock draft:
- Davis (18 yrs)
- Barnes (19yrs)
- Sullinger (19 yrs)
- Jones (19 yrs)
- Miller (18 yrs)
- McAdoo (18 yrs)
- Gilchrist (17 yrs)
- J. V. Hater ;) (17 yrs)
- Rivers (18 yrs)
- Henson (20 yrs)
Like I said, this will probably look entirely different by next June even if they don't raise the age cap.
If the lockout goes beyond next year's draft, then the age limit would (presumably) remain the same. Of course it would probably mean the Raptors would have less of a chance at the top pick, making more depth better for them. I think the worst option would be if the season is cancelled, but the lockout ends before the draft and the age limit is raised.
The age limit will give me an aneurism before a new thread.
It is definitely an issue though and one that I really hope does not come to pass. Imagine missing out on Durant only to miss out on some of these players next year.
Silver lining, without a major stud drafted in 2012 you can almost guarantee a top 5 pick again the following year.
not a silver lining at all... 3 years in a row reaching for lottery success? who are we the clippers?
you have to reach down in the lottery a lot more than that to be the Clippers. And you'd have to strike out a lot there, too. The Raptors have, it seems, done VERY well in the lottery the last few years. Besides, if ran the Raptors, wouldn't you switch rosters with them right now?
Just hoping for a draft 2 YEARS from now is reaching down pretty low, I think the raptors should stop going lottery bound after next years draft. I think we could too with both our lithuanian and whichever superstar we get next year. I hate the idea (im sure our young core does to) of sticking around the basement of the league for another 3 years.
I was using historical measure, otherwise I wouldve said the kings, or wolves. Clips are looking real bright these days infact.
Not that OKC is the be all and end all in terms of rebuild but to just give perspective:
After 2 years out of the playoffs they had nothing to show from the draft.
2007 - Durant
2008 - Westbrook
2009 - Harden/Ibaka
2010 - playoffs as 8th seed
My point? Patience is easier said than done.
Can we do that the year after this year? I kind of wanted us to send a little orphaned blind Chinese girl with leprosy and tourette syndrome for the lottery this year.
Plus the NFL system can't be rigged by a spiteful commissioner, what fun is that?
I don't disagree. I just hope the Raptors get a potential superstar next year.
ahahahahaha. we wouldve won it for sure.
I'm not so sure such a smart business man would intentionally look to alienate a 35 million people market. Especially seeing how his most recent quest has been globalization of the NBA brand. Then there's the little tid bit about him not being a dictator/owner of the NBA and can be fired by the owners at any time.
The spite is the collective weapon of the 29 other franchises versus an unsuspecting sacrificial lamb. STERN is the personification of a union of owners. He represents their interest and their interest only.
The fact I don't like him and would love to refract a stream of urine off his face while never really needing to point up is just a demonstration of my personal frustration with the corporate element in this game.
Maybe its even my anger at my own stupidity for getting hooked on this opiate while avoiding real opiates. (and thinking I was being a good boy)
Of course he does. That's his job.
2009 - DeRozan
2010 - Davis
2011 - Valanciunas
2012 - lottery pick
2013 - 7th seed
This is my prediction
Early, i know but after following the fiba jam i know 2 things, big val is going to be a fantastic center for years to come and jeremy lamb is going to be a allstar for years to come. to the point im kind of rethinking drafting a 3 is our #1 priority. if we get lamb at the 2 we can slide derozen to the 3. yes i agree with the general sentiment that hes not well suited for it but realistically how much worse is his defense going to really be at the 3? lamb on the other hand is a elite defender with a 7'1 wingspan which is absolutely unheard of and a fantastic scorer. extremely clutch, too.
if im BC im doing everything i possibly can to get another top 10-14 draft pick so i can get my hands on lamb and one of the pg's.
They drafted a top-5 player in the NBA. Raptors got DD and Davis.
If you're preaching patience it's gonna take a lot longer than that.
But if the Raptors end up getting their franchise player in the 2012 draft, then they'll be WAY ahead of the THunder when they drafted Durant. Obviously it hinges on one draft, but that's unfortunately how the NBA works.
Seriously? Who knows what Toronto is going to draft in the next 2 seasons or what DD's, Davis', or JV's ceiling will be.
The point was, and still is, the season or two before getting a top 5 pick SEA/OKC had nothing to show (Sene). Toronto has DeRozan and Davis.
2005: Petro at #26 (playoffs)
2006: Sene at #10
2007: Durant/Green at #2/#5
2008: Westbrook at #4
2009: Harden/Ibaka at #3/#24
2010: Aldrich and Playoffs
2008: pick traded (playoffs)
2009: DeRozan #9
2010: Davis #13
2011: JV #5
2013: ?? (Playoffs?)
Hopefully that spells out what I mean by patience. The Raptors got what the Thunder desperately needed despite their high draft picks - a true C. While the Raps don't have a Durant I think JV has more upside than Perkins. Our Durant and Westbrook might be coming in 2012 or 2013. Or maybe Bayless finally 'gets' it Chauncey-style. Or DD evolves similar to Joe Johnson (but he could always shoot) or DD adds range later in his career (Jordan-style - please note I am not saying DD could be MJ) or ED becomes a legit PF or James Johnson becomes like Diaw (sitting on the bench in ATL and picked up in a trade).
This is further explanation of what I mean by patience. Enjoy watching the individual players and team grow. Hopefully they will turn in to a contender but that will be based on the draft/trades/development. None of the above may pan out or maybe things turn out better or worse - who knows?
All I know is the Raptors are in a much better place than they were a season ago and even 2 seasons ago (given the benefit of hindsight). This last season, while only producing 22 wins, was as a whole season the most enjoyable season of Raptor basketball I have watched since 2007.
I'm sure Thunder fans and analysts were pretty bummed in 2009 with all the talent and only 23 wins - and that was after #2, #5, #4 draft picks and just picking up #3 and #24.