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The NBA season is approaching what would be the halfway point in a non-lockout schedule. Many rookies have started to earn consistent minutes and we’re at the point where we can start to make early evaluations of how teams faired in the 2011 draft. This seasons is interesting in that the two most intriguing draftees, outside of Kyrie Irving, may still play in Europe.
Jonas Valančiūnas, 19, has emerged as a wonder beast and closet sorcerer for Lietuvos rytas over the past couple of months. The young Lithuanian, who slipped to Toronto at the 5th pick, has athleticism and length (7’0″, 7’4″ wingspan, 9′ 3″ standing reach) that are comparable to that of Demarus Cousins (6’10.75”, 7’5.75″, 9′ 5″.)
Now’s the part in a blog post where people usually toss around phrases like “help defense,” “finishing ability” and “nose for the ball” that fail to conjure up any depiction of what a player actually looks like. I’ll lean toward a story instead. It’s relatively common for players at the start of European basketball games to aim a couple of strong cheap shots at opposing stars to see if they can knock them out of their rhythm. A player is alloted more fouls per minute in European ball and the refs usually don’t call off-the-ball contact as closely so it’s usually sound strategy.
Well Valančiūnas hits back, and he hits back hard. Hard enough, so that you see opposing players curl up, go limp and lose their aggressiveness. Valančiūnas looks every bit like a franchise NBA center and if there was redraft of the 2011 draft knowing what we know now, I anticipate that he would be the consensus selection for the 2nd pick. There may even be a couple of GMs who would make arguments about selecting him in front of Irving.
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How did these two Euros, who may have deserved to be selected as the 2nd and 3rd pick in the draft, slip like they did? Are GMs and owners so impatient that they couldn’t wait a season (or perhaps three in the case of Mirotic) for a substantially better pick than the player they selected?
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So, at the time of the 2011 Draft, the selection of Rubio was viewed as both a sign of how a shiny prospect can stall or even regress in their development, and the immense pressure waiting for a high draft pick can put on a roster, front office and fan base. Rubio was the cautionary tale for why a franchise like the Cleveland Cavaliers would select Tristan Thompson over Valančiūnas, and a good portion of the league would pass on Mirotic.
It’s worth mentioning that neither Mirotic nor Valančiūnas were the prospects at the time of the 2011 draft that they are now. Valančiūnas hadn’t shown that he could be the focal point of an offense, and Mirotic looked like a preps-to-pros prospect trying to find ways to be a consistent contributor. The talent was there, but not the regular production.
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Fans in Toronto and Chicago, regardless, should be happy about their team’s maneuverings in the 2011 draft. Toronto may have landed a franchise center, the white rhinos of NBA prospects, and Chicago may have found a way to provide a substantial infusion of talent to its roster via a low first round selection.
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Comfort for the weary Raptor fans among us.