Grange Advocating Tanking/Raptors not rushing rebuild

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Tue Nov 29th, 2011, 02:33 PM
GarbageTime

Quote:

Matt52 wrote:

Maybe a different way of looking at things that sums up the Raptors current state of affairs:

The front office can tank with an eye to the future and doing what is necessary to build a contender.

The coaches and players should never tank and never give less than 100% to win every single game possible.

yep thats a much simplier explanation.
Tue Nov 29th, 2011, 02:41 PM
Hugmenot

Quote:

Tim W. wrote:

You're apparently happy with mediocrity. I'm not. I'd like to see a Raptor team actually contend for once. If I had a GM who said he just wanted to put a competitive team on the floor and that's it, he'd be gone quicker than you can say Rob Babcock.

I have spent over $25,000 over the years attending Leafs games and I would have spent a lot more if I had lived in Toronto. I am happy with the level of entertainment value I received in exchange for my dollars.

I spent just a few hundreds of dollars attending Raptors games the past two years. Again, I am satisfied with the level of entertainment I received in exchange for my dollars.

Sports is entertainment. I am willing to pay for a good game just as much like I am willing to pay to go to a lesser opera house or a non-major theater production.

Quote:

Tim W. wrote:

Because I want the Raptors to win it all, I'm willing to sacrifice a little to do that.

What exactly is the sacrifice you are willing to make? Are you sure you are not simply asking a corporation to make a (financial) sacrifice so it can have a teeny weeny litlle extra chance, if the gods are willing, to win the championship in a few years?

Although I would like to think the Raptors will go for it if they are ever in position to win it all, I don't want them to adopt a let's suck strategy to get their savior.
Tue Nov 29th, 2011, 02:43 PM
TheGloveinRapsUniform

Quote:

Lark Benson wrote:

If the Raps had any shot in hell at landing a legitimate franchise-changing player then I'd say maybe. But it ain't gonna happen.

Rose isn't going to leave a contender in his hometown for Toronto. Makes zero sense.

Howard has already stated he'd prefer to go to LA. Whether the Clips or Lakers, that's gonna happen.

Chris Paul is one of the league's ultimate competitors and wants to win immediately. He won't be coming to Toronto.

Eric Gordon is likely going to be bait in whoever the Clips go after, but regardless why would he leave LA where he plays alongside Blake Griffin on an up-and-coming team?

Etc, etc, etc.

It's not that Toronto isn't a good free agent destination in terms of the city itself, I don't really believe that. It's just that NBA superstars have a lot of choice when deciding to change teams, and factors like a team's potential and existing players seem to be the biggest considerations right now. Then comes market, weather, all that other stuff (assuming teams are offering roughly the same amount of money).

Everything changes if the Raps land a Barnes or a Davis in this year's draft, but even then it'll take a couple of years for the team to establish itself and really begin to make the kind of impact that will make FAs consider the team as a destination. Until then, there's no more reason to choose Toronto as there is Charlotte or Minnesota or Sacramento or Cleveland.

To me the best chance they have to land a top-notch FA is going to be trying to sign away a restricted FA like Westbrook, whose team might not be able to match a max offer. Obviously there's no guarantee he'll even sign an offer sheet, but that might be the only hope in the short-term.

And as an aside, assuming the Raps do manage to land a franchise guy in the draft this year, I'd be just as happy to see BC use the cap space to sign vets and established players to short term deals. That'd give you some stability on the roster, vets for the young guys to learn from and practice with, and retain long-term flexibility for extending the players you want to keep.

What if BC pulled a Pat Riley/Donnie Walsh tactic and convinced 2, not just one superstar to sign with the Raptors?? Do you guys think he'll be successful? I think it would be easier to convince 2 superstars to come here at the same time, rather than just one, and if you have the cap space to sign both at the max, then that would make things easier.
Tue Nov 29th, 2011, 02:44 PM
Brandon

Quote:

Hugmenot wrote:

So in other words, the Raptors have yet to start the rebuilding process as they don't have anyone on their roster who is a top 10 or 15 guy in the league.

How long can you sell this strategy to paying consumers and sponsors? Corporate sponsors play with the cards they are dealt and accept you do not have to wait until all the stars are in perfect alignment before you can deliver a good product.

I am so certain many, many corporate sponsors would love the "We'll suck until we are in position to draft a franchise player from the Raptors" sales pitch. That's just the kind of product they want to associate their brand with.

I agree that the Raps franchise earns less than it should for MLSE at large. This is an extremely rich media market starved for successful teams. The Raps could be earning a lot more local money if the ball club was any good. But, I don't think the team does any worse than break-even with all of the many, many bad teams it has fielded over the years. So it can continue.
Tue Nov 29th, 2011, 02:47 PM
Lark Benson

Quote:

Hugmenot wrote:

I have spent over $25,000 over the years attending Leafs games and I would have spent a lot more if I had lived in Toronto. I am happy with the level of entertainment value I received in exchange for my dollars.

I spent just a few hundreds of dollars attending Raptors games the past two years. Again, I am satisfied with the level of entertainment I received in exchange for my dollars.

Sports is entertainment. I am willing to pay for a good game just as much like I am willing to pay to go to a lesser opera house or a non-major theater production.

Congratulations, you have significantly more money than most of us. If you're willing to shell out money to watch bad teams then more power to you.

Keep in mind you're posting in a forum that's frequented mostly by die-hard fans to whom 'entertainment' is the team competing at a high level, not just putting on a show. We're sick to death of teams that can score but can't defend and don't win.
Tue Nov 29th, 2011, 02:48 PM
Lark Benson

Quote:

tbihis wrote:

What if BC pulled a Pat Riley/Donnie Walsh tactic and convinced 2, not just one superstar to sign with the Raptors?? Do you guys think he'll be successful? I think it would be easier to convince 2 superstars to come here at the same time, rather than just one, and if you have the cap space to sign both at the max, then that would make things easier.

Miami and New York >>>>>>>>> Toronto.

Hate to say it, but it's true.

Hell, I don't think Miami would have even had a shot vs New York if Wade wasn't already playing there.
Tue Nov 29th, 2011, 03:18 PM
slaw

The other point that should be made is that when you build a .500 team, all it takes is one injury or happenstance for you to be back at .333 because your margin for error is so small. The additional downside is that you are then stuck with a lot of overpaid veterans and mediocre players you can't do much with. In other words, you suck as bad as a team that's trying to lose but you have the added benefit of no hope and a longer rebuild phase.

What's funny to me is that Raptors fans just lived through this. We got 2 years of playoff ball, 2 first round exits, and were left with a roster with limited salary cap room, few if any tradable assets, no hope for long term success and desperation just to try and make the playoffs. Then, Bosh leaves and it's back to 20 wins. Let me ask people like Hugmonet this: were those 11 playoff games worth 5-6 years out of the playoffs? Cause that's just a part of the price that was paid for that middling, short-term benefit.

I still contend that if Colangelo had been patient in 2006, this organization would have been far better off in the long run. Instead, he sacrificed long term planning at the altar of quick-fix, one-hour gratification. Look where that got them.
Tue Nov 29th, 2011, 03:23 PM
TheGloveinRapsUniform

Quote:

Lark Benson wrote:

Miami and New York >>>>>>>>> Toronto.

Hate to say it, but it's true.

Hell, I don't think Miami would have even had a shot vs New York if Wade wasn't already playing there.

True, but i actually think its beyond location.

Amare wouldnt have signed with NYK just because its in new york. I bet you the guy was promised that the knicks will do everything in its power to get another and another legit superstar to play alongside him. and im pretty sure he's had conversations with melo, paul that they are willing to play for the knicks its just a matter of when. plus the cap space didnt hurt either.

wade wouldnt have resigned with miami if he didnt have at least a 30-40% assurance that lbj and bosh were willing to sign with him. he wouldnt stay in miami just because it was miami.

i think the only way you can get superstars to Toronto is by the pair or threes, give them enough control of the decisions but not too much, and sign them to max contracts.
Tue Nov 29th, 2011, 03:58 PM
Tim W.

Quote:

Hugmenot wrote:

Some are suggestings trading players for future draft picks to increase our chance of losing this year.

I'd be willing to do that, definitely. A move like that focuses on the future, but also has the added benefit of probably getting a better draft pick.
Tue Nov 29th, 2011, 03:59 PM
Hugmenot

Quote:

slaw wrote:

Let me ask people like Hugmonet this: were those 11 playoff games worth 5-6 years out of the playoffs? Cause that's just a part of the price that was paid for that middling, short-term benefit.

I cannot answer as I did not attend or watch any basketball games from the early 2000s up to 2 1/2 years ago. I have no emotional attachment and very little knowledge of the events you referred to.
Tue Nov 29th, 2011, 04:02 PM
Tim W.

Quote:

Hugmenot wrote:

In my opinion, the odds of the Raptors landing a franchise player in 2012 via the draft or free agency are too slim to be worth including in any sort of meaningful plan.

I"m curious why you say that. Personally, I would say there could be as many as 3 or 4 potential franchise players in the 2012 draft and the chance the Raptors, as currently constructed, of getting a top 3 pick are pretty damn good. Far, FAR better than the chance of being able to become a contender without getting one, anyway.
Tue Nov 29th, 2011, 04:36 PM
Tim W.

Quote:

Hugmenot wrote:

I have spent over $25,000 over the years attending Leafs games and I would have spent a lot more if I had lived in Toronto. I am happy with the level of entertainment value I received in exchange for my dollars.

I spent just a few hundreds of dollars attending Raptors games the past two years. Again, I am satisfied with the level of entertainment I received in exchange for my dollars.

Sports is entertainment. I am willing to pay for a good game just as much like I am willing to pay to go to a lesser opera house or a non-major theater production.

Again, that's great for you. I don't look at it that way and I know a lot of others don't, as well. When I play, I like to win, and that goes the same for teams I follow. I don't watch any other sport. Basketball is my passion. The only other sport I followed at all was baseball in the few years preceding and when they won their World Series. I even got to watch one game live. I stopped watching not long after that, in part, because I never felt they actually wanted to really win. But when they were one of the best teams it was a fantastic experience. I'd love for that to happen for the Raptors.

Quote:

Hugmenot wrote:

What exactly is the sacrifice you are willing to make? Are you sure you are not simply asking a corporation to make a (financial) sacrifice so it can have a teeny weeny litlle extra chance, if the gods are willing, to win the championship in a few years?

Although I would like to think the Raptors will go for it if they are ever in position to win it all, I don't want them to adopt a let's suck strategy to get their savior.

It's not as if what I'm suggesting is uncommon in sports, especially basketball. My personal sacrifice is to be willing to watch a sub-par product if it increases the chances of winning a Championship. As for corporations, this wouldn't really be that difficult a sell. Advertising always is a gamble, spending money for the chance at making more of it. As long as they see the plan, the idea that they could be spending their money on an actual contender would be VERY appealing. Companies ultimately want to be associated with a winner, and that's something the Raptors have rarely been over the course of their history.

As for a "let's suck strategy", I don't know if you've noticed but they HAVE sucked for a great deal of the time in the last 15 years. The difference here is the "strategy" part. After putting such bad teams on the floor over the years, I'd love to see some plan that I can actually get behind.
Tue Nov 29th, 2011, 04:37 PM
Tim W.

Quote:

Lark Benson wrote:

Hell, I don't think Miami would have even had a shot vs New York if Wade wasn't already playing there.

I don't know about that. They have three things going for them outside of Wade: South Beach, no state taxes and Pat Riley.
Tue Nov 29th, 2011, 04:40 PM
Lark Benson

Quote:

tbihis wrote:

i think the only way you can get superstars to Toronto is by the pair or threes, give them enough control of the decisions but not too much, and sign them to max contracts.

I don't mean to be rude, but you're kind of contradicting yourself. You said earlier you don't like the idea of tanking, but that's exactly what both Miami and NY did in order to free up the space and/or acquire the assets necessary to make a run at that free agent class. We're not talking 'just letting the kids play and let the chips fall where they may', we're talking flat out tanking and dumping contracts, sacrificing entire seasons.
Tue Nov 29th, 2011, 04:44 PM
Lark Benson

Quote:

Tim W. wrote:

I don't know about that. They have three things going for them outside of Wade: South Beach, no state taxes and Pat Riley.

If Wade had have signed with Chicago for example, I very seriously doubt LeBron or Bosh would have signed in Miami. It's not that Miami doesn't have advantages so much as that without Wade there, they would have had a pathetic roster, worse even than the ones LeBron and Bosh would have been leaving. Maybe they end up landing a Boozer or some other 2nd tier FA, but probably not anyone in the first tier.
Tue Nov 29th, 2011, 04:45 PM
Brandon

Quote:

Hugmenot wrote:

I have spent over $25,000 over the years attending Leafs games and I would have spent a lot more if I had lived in Toronto. I am happy with the level of entertainment value I received in exchange for my dollars.

I spent just a few hundreds of dollars attending Raptors games the past two years. Again, I am satisfied with the level of entertainment I received in exchange for my dollars.

Sports is entertainment. I am willing to pay for a good game just as much like I am willing to pay to go to a lesser opera house or a non-major theater production.

You are Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment's dream customer. They could fire almost everybody they pay to manage their teams if everybody had this attitude.
Tue Nov 29th, 2011, 04:46 PM
Tim W.

Quote:

Hugmenot wrote:

I cannot answer as I did not attend or watch any basketball games from the early 2000s up to 2 1/2 years ago. I have no emotional attachment and very little knowledge of the events you referred to.

That's where you and most of the rest of us differ. You're pretty new to following the Raptors. I've been following them since their inception. I can't tell you how thrilled I was when I heard Toronto was getting an NBA team (and then moved to Vancouver, only to discover they were getting one, too, only for it to be...well, you get the idea). As a teenager, I fantasized about playing in the NBA (I had neither the skill nor athletic ability to come even close) and that was LONG before the NBA came to Canada. My dream job would probably be to become the GM of an NBA team. I'm not a casual fan. And it sounds like you pretty much are.
Tue Nov 29th, 2011, 04:49 PM
Tim W.

Quote:

Lark Benson wrote:

If Wade had have signed with Chicago for example, I very seriously doubt LeBron or Bosh would have signed in Miami. It's not that Miami doesn't have advantages so much as that without Wade there, they would have had a pathetic roster, worse even than the ones LeBron and Bosh would have been leaving. Maybe they end up landing a Boozer or some other 2nd tier FA, but probably not anyone in the first tier.

Yes, I agree with that. Wade was probably the main attraction because they wanted to team up together more than anything. But if Wade had left, then they would have a very good chance at getting a guy like Dwight Howard, Deron Williams or Chris Paul later. I'd say they are pretty even with New York in terms of attractiveness, mostly because Miami is also a warm weather city.
Tue Nov 29th, 2011, 05:06 PM
Hugmenot

Quote:

Tim W. wrote:

I"m curious why you say that. Personally, I would say there could be as many as 3 or 4 potential franchise players in the 2012 draft and the chance the Raptors, as currently constructed, of getting a top 3 pick are pretty damn good. Far, FAR better than the chance of being able to become a contender without getting one, anyway.

Fair enough.

Let's assume there are 3 potential franchise players in the draft. The odds of a 7th worst team to win one of the first 3 picks are less than 15% percent. There is a non-trivial risk the player selected will never realize his perceived franchise-player potential due to many factors, including incorrect evaluation and injuries. So let's pcik an arbitratry reducing-factor and say the odds of a 7th worst team picking a future (as opposed to potential) franchise player in a 3 potential franchise player draft is 10%.

I don't think the team is nearly as bad as many seem to think and at this time, without knowing the effects of trades and free-agency, I expect the Raptors will win 34 to 37% of their games. A 34% win percentage would typically mean a 7th worst team.

I hope whomever they pick turns out to be a great player but I would never create a strategy revolving around a 10% probability.

Now your turn. Where do you see the Raptors finishing at this time? You do say the chances of getting a top 3 pick are pretty damn good so I assume you must have an idea what percentage of their games the Raptors, as presently constructed, would win.
Tue Nov 29th, 2011, 05:30 PM
Tim W.

Quote:

Hugmenot wrote:

Fair enough.

Let's assume there are 3 potential franchise players in the draft. The odds of a 7th worst team to win one of the first 3 picks are less than 15% percent. There is a non-trivial risk the player selected will never realize his perceived franchise-player potential due to many factors, including incorrect evaluation and injuries. So let's pcik an arbitratry reducing-factor and say the odds of a 7th worst team picking a future (as opposed to potential) franchise player in a 3 potential franchise player draft is 10%.

I don't think the team is nearly as bad as many seem to think and at this time, without knowing the effects of trades and free-agency, I expect the Raptors will win 34 to 37% of their games. A 34% win percentage would typically mean a 7th worst team.

I hope whomever they pick turns out to be a great player but I would never create a strategy revolving around a 10% probability.

Now your turn. Where do you see the Raptors finishing at this time? You do say the chances of getting a top 3 pick are pretty damn good so I assume you must have an idea what percentage of their games the Raptors, as presently constructed, would win.

I think they'd have to pick up a player or two to become the 7th worst team. I'm going to concur with the recent RealGM power ranking and say they'll be third worst. I like the potential of the team, but they are simply too young and without enough high level talent to beat even a lot of the lottery teams, in my opinion.

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