The lingering question... Which PF goes?

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelo...9/amir-johnson
amir is pretty inconsistant. all over the place from game to game

same as ed
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelo.../4259/ed-davis

at work so no time to go over whos numbers are varying more often and wildly. i am all for getting rid of amir though

Quote:

---

Kuh wrote:

Those who read stats like thenbageek would note:
Ed Davis: +6 wins in a season
Amir Johnson: +6 wins
Lina's Kleiza: +1 win
Andrea Bargnani: -1 win (it was -6 wins the year before)

Seems like a pretty strong argument to keep both Amir and Ed, and dump Andrea ... who might fetch the most in a trade, as well.


P.S. But of course, stats are for losers like the San Antonio Spurs, and winners like the Raptors know that Andrea is our star.:)

---

yup .. if only we had guys running the team who could blindly follow these stats and make decisions accordingly.. wed be in a much better place ..

I voted Andrea for a couple reasons.

First I don't buy into the 'new' Andrea scenario. It may be true, but I need alot more than 13 out of 350 games to start to believe in the reliablity of such a case.

He is, in theory anyways, the most valuable asset on the team and should net the largest return.

Loosing his contract (assuming a new large contract doesn't come in return) offers the team the most flexibility going forward

Eds cheap and young, Amir is constistent and reliable. PF is probably one of the easiest holes to fill in the NBA right now anyways... I'd rather make sure this team has C, PG and a wing locked down.

Mind you I'm not a playoffs or bust kind of guy if I was the logical choice would probably be Ed.

Quote:

---

Kuh wrote:

Those who read stats like thenbageek would note:
Ed Davis: +6 wins in a season
Amir Johnson: +6 wins
Lina's Kleiza: +1 win
Andrea Bargnani: -1 win (it was -6 wins the year before)

Seems like a pretty strong argument to keep both Amir and Ed, and dump Andrea ... who might fetch the most in a trade, as well.


P.S. But of course, stats are for losers like the San Antonio Spurs, and winners like the Raptors know that Andrea is our star.:)

---

WP is full of crap it doesn't pass the sniff test, our record last year should have improved without Bargs playing based on WP...which it didn't.

Quote:

---

Katman wrote:

WP is full of crap it doesn't pass the sniff test, our record last year should have improved without Bargs playing based on WP...which it didn't.

---

not entirely true. The Raptors record would have (in WP's theory anyways) improved if everything stayed the same. But ofcourse not everything stayed the same. (other injuries, more minutes given to d-league players etc).

Bargnani's value is one variable of many when it comes to the total team record.

Quote:

---

Miekenstien wrote:

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelo...9/amir-johnson
amir is pretty inconsistant. all over the place from game to game

same as ed
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelo.../4259/ed-davis

at work so no time to go over whos numbers are varying more often and wildly. i am all for getting rid of amir though

---

I don't even know how we can bother comparing ED to Amir. ED Has played 1.5 seasons, has never had a training camp and has played for two different coaches in the last 2 years (3 if you include college).

Amir has been in the league for several years, and has had his opportunity to start, come off the bench, etc. We've seen what he can do. There is no possibility that he is going to be able to show up next year and hit a new ceiling that is so far beyond what we are expecting that he will blow us away. That's it..this is him.

ED on the other hand, has been just as good (as shown by your numbers and the weird "Wins" stat that we are looking at), and STILL HAS POTENTIAL.

I look at this debate and just think, what are we crazy? how is this even a conversation?!?!

O yeah, and ED is cheaper....far cheaper

Quote:

---

BallaBalla wrote:

I don't even know how we can bother comparing ED to Amir. ED Has played 1.5 seasons, has never had a training camp and has played for two different coaches in the last 2 years (3 if you include college).

Amir has been in the league for several years, and has had his opportunity to start, come off the bench, etc. We've seen what he can do. There is no possibility that he is going to be able to show up next year and hit a new ceiling that is so far beyond what we are expecting that he will blow us away. That's it..this is him.

ED on the other hand, has been just as good (as shown by your numbers and the weird "Wins" stat that we are looking at), and STILL HAS POTENTIAL.

I look at this debate and just think, what are we crazy? how is this even a conversation?!?!

---

I personally agree, especially when salary is factored into the comparison. However, as I pointed out in my original post in this thread, all these reasons for preferring to keep Davis are very likely the exact reasons why other GMs would place a much greater trade value on Davis (unless they wanted to unload a big and/or bad contract in return for Amir's).

The only way I could see Amir being included is if a team is in win-now mode and wants a proven veteran backup big and either has the cap space to take him on, or have a garbage contract they hope to unload in return. Aside from that, the only way I'd expect Amir to be traded over Davis, is if it's part of a much bigger trade and his contract is required for total salary matching purposes.

For all these reasons, I voted that Davis would be the most likely PF to go (though I would prefer it be Amir to go).

Quote:

---

CalgaryRapsFan wrote:

I personally agree, especially when salary is factored into the comparison. However, as I pointed out in my original post in this thread, all these reasons for preferring to keep Davis are very likely the exact reasons why other GMs would place a much greater trade value on Davis (unless they wanted to unload a big and/or bad contract in return for Amir's).

The only way I could see Amir being included is if a team is in win-now mode and wants a proven veteran backup big and either has the cap space to take him on, or have a garbage contract they hope to unload in return. Aside from that, the only way I'd expect Amir to be traded over Davis, is if it's part of a much bigger trade and his contract is required for total salary matching purposes.

For all these reasons, I voted that Davis would be the most likely PF to go (though I would prefer it be Amir to go).

---

ah...makes sense...to tell you the truth though, one thing does not really have to do with another. Meaning, just because we can't trade amir, it doesn't mean we will trade Davis. He still has a chance to show that he is a good player, and can be part of the rotation.

Quote:

---

BallaBalla wrote:

ah...makes sense...to tell you the truth though, one thing does not really have to do with another. Meaning, just because we can't trade amir, it doesn't mean we will trade Davis. He still has a chance to show that he is a good player, and can be part of the rotation.

---

I understand, but the entire point of the thread is discussing which PF will leave, assuming that not all current PFs (Bargnani, Amir, Davis, Acy and Kleiza) will end the season on the Raptors.

The assumption made by most posters is that the decision will ultimately come down to Amir VS Davis. One will remain as the primary backup PF, while the other is traded away. Bargnani is set as the starter and has a much different skillset than the other PFs. Kleiza will be the primary backup SF (and backup PF in some smaller 2nd unit lineups) and Acy likely won't factor into the discussion much this season.

Therefore, it all comes back to Amir VS Davis, and the assumption that one of them will likely be traded. The rationale is that, barring injury to Bargnani, there simply won't be enough playing time for both of them to play/develop sufficiently (especially with Gray being the primary backup C, Kleiza being capable of playing PF in short bursts and Acy pushing hard to earn playing time).

Quote:

---

BallaBalla wrote:

I don't even know how we can bother comparing ED to Amir. ED Has played 1.5 seasons, has never had a training camp and has played for two different coaches in the last 2 years (3 if you include college).

Amir has been in the league for several years, and has had his opportunity to start, come off the bench, etc. We've seen what he can do. There is no possibility that he is going to be able to show up next year and hit a new ceiling that is so far beyond what we are expecting that he will blow us away. That's it..this is him.

ED on the other hand, has been just as good (as shown by your numbers and the weird "Wins" stat that we are looking at), and STILL HAS POTENTIAL.

I look at this debate and just think, what are we crazy? how is this even a conversation?!?!

---

I am not discounting the possibility you are right but to be fair, it should be noted Amir spent all last off season recovering from ankle surgery.

Amir should be kept. If Ed develops really well, he might become as good as Amir.

Ed is a huge liability on offense. The team scores 9 less points per 100 possessions with him on the floor! This is because he shoots a horrible 33% From midrange. By contrast, Amir shoots 44%. But they each take the same number of midrange shots. Since nobody (rightfully) respects Ed's shot, it clogs up the floor for everyone else. Amir also shoots better from in close and rebounds better.

Amir also plays much better with Andrea. When Amir and Andrea were on the floor together, the Raptors out scored their opponents by a significant margin (5/100 poss.) Amir seems to really benefit from Andrea spacing the floor (which makes sense: the centre should be a main beneficiary of a stretch 4): he shot more than 10% better with Andrea on the floor as opposed to off!

So yeah: Amir all the way.

Also wins produced is an actively misleading stat and should not be used under most circumstances, Kuhn and Craiger.

Amir will be needed at center this season - he cannot be traded until Jonas proves himself to be ready for the NBA.

Quote:

---

Roarque wrote:

Amir will be needed at center this season - he cannot be traded until Jonas proves himself to be ready for the NBA.

---

big man gray can take it all.

Quote:

---

malefax wrote:

Also wins produced is an actively misleading stat and should not be used under most circumstances, Kuhn and Craiger.

---

I wasn't saying it is or isn't, rather that just because WP said Bargnani was a -1 and the Raps won more games with him, doesn't make the statistic wrong. The number of external variables effecting the season were well beyond the scope of just Bargnani.

I'd also say that there is a enourmous debate regarding whether WP is 'misleading' or not. Or more specifically any more or less than all the other stats commonly available. There are some very good things about its calculation, and some very questionable choices aswell.

Quote:

---

malefax wrote:

Amir should be kept. If Ed develops really well, he might become as good as Amir.

Ed is a huge liability on offense. The team scores 9 less points per 100 possessions with him on the floor! This is because he shoots a horrible 33% From midrange. By contrast, Amir shoots 44%. But they each take the same number of midrange shots. Since nobody (rightfully) respects Ed's shot, it clogs up the floor for everyone else. Amir also shoots better from in close and rebounds better.

Amir also plays much better with Andrea. When Amir and Andrea were on the floor together, the Raptors out scored their opponents by a significant margin (5/100 poss.) Amir seems to really benefit from Andrea spacing the floor (which makes sense: the centre should be a main beneficiary of a stretch 4): he shot more than 10% better with Andrea on the floor as opposed to off!

So yeah: Amir all the way.

Also wins produced is an actively misleading stat and should not be used under most circumstances, Kuhn and Craiger.

---

You see, this is precisely what I am talking about. I am not disputing that ED has been bad offensively and that Amir is currently better. I'm not even disputing that Amir is better today. What i am saying is that to use stats based on last year's performance to make a decision about which one is better is just a huge mistake.

For example, you use his shot as an example. To choose Amir based on this and his fG% is making an assumption that ED won't improve his shot. I'm not saying he will or he won't, but I wouldn't bet on an NBA player not improving his 8-10 foot jump shot.

The bottom line, don't compare Amir and Ed from last year, that's over. The year's done. They'll both come back, and hopefully they'll both be better. I'm just saying that there is a better chance, considering how long ED has played in the league, that he will be a much better player.

o yeah, and he's cheaper :)

Quote:

---

BallaBalla wrote:

You see, this is precisely what I am talking about. I am not disputing that ED has been bad offensively and that Amir is currently better. I'm not even disputing that Amir is better today. What i am saying is that to use stats based on last year's performance to make a decision about which one is better is just a huge mistake.

For example, you use his shot as an example. To choose Amir based on this and his fG% is making an assumption that ED won't improve his shot. I'm not saying he will or he won't, but I wouldn't bet on an NBA player not improving his 8-10 foot jump shot.

The bottom line, don't compare Amir and Ed from last year, that's over. The year's done. They'll both come back, and hopefully they'll both be better. I'm just saying that there is a better chance, considering how long ED has played in the league, that he will be a much better player.

---

Cheaper, younger, better potential. Arguably he and Amir are the same players anyways.

My question to Ed though, is his motor.

Quote:

---

RaptorReuben wrote:

Cheaper, younger, better potential. Arguably he and Amir are the same players anyways.

My question to Ed though, is his motor.

---

And his lack of strength in the post.

Amir can at least play 5 in stretches (he's a far better option than Gray, IMO - with the exception of a select few heavyweight match-ups). Can't say the same for Ed.

Quote:

---

Nilanka wrote:

And his lack of strength in the post.

Amir can at least play 5 in stretches (he's a far better option than Gray, IMO - with the exception of a select few heavyweight match-ups). Can't say the same for Ed.

---

Dwane Casey did admit during the season, that Amir was the best post defender on the team. Whether that is high praise or such, that says something... Amir is the better defender and harder worker right now, but Ed has the better potential and financially good.

Being the team is building for the future, financial flexibility and potential would be best suited. Although, Amir is still ONLY 25 years old, coming straight out of high school. A young veteran? Not to mention we've never really mentioned the experience he's had whether sitting on the bench, or playing for a good team in Detroit before the Chauncey/Iverson trade. He's been around some of the greats in the league.

I chose Amir to be traded, but I'm proving myself wrong... :S