Another Gay trade
I can't help it, I keep trying to come up with trades that are fair/decent, should the opportunity arise before/during the season for the Raptors to acquire Rudy Gay from Memphis.
- the trade shown in the ESPN Trade Machine does not include picks that would be included in the trade
- there would be 2 trades happening BEFORE the linked trade, to turn 3 Toronto 2nd round picks (SAC '13, TOR '13, TOR '14) and 1 Denver 2nd round pick (DEN '14) into 2 late 1st round picks (ie: both would be 2 x early 2nd round picks for 1 late 1st round pick)
- ie: SAC's '13 2nd round pick & TOR's '13 2nd round pick (and cash, if necessary) to SA for their '13 1st round pick (or some other team willing to giveup late 1st round pick for 2 x 2nd round picks)
- ie: TOR's '14 2nd round pick & DEN's '14 2nd round pick (and cash, if necessary) to MIA for their '14 1st round pick (or some other team willing to giveup late 1st round pick for 2 x 2nd round picks)
TRADE LINK - Option A: http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=9mzgded
TRADE LINK - Option B: http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=993hafa
* I think Option B would actually be the only viable option, since ESPN's Trade Machine isn't including Gray's contract in the calculation for Toronto's salary cap (I think Option A would be too much incoming salary and not enough outgoing salary for Toronto)
- Ed Davis (Option A) / Amir Johnson (Option B)
- 2014 1st round pick (ie: Miami's '14 1st round pick)
- Jose Calderon
- Josh Selby
- Wilson Chandler
- DeMar DeRozan
- rights to Thomislav Zubcic*
- 2013 1st round pick (ie: San Antonio's '13 1st round pick)
- Rudy Gay
- Roddy Beaubois
- Dahantay Jones
- Vince Carter
* Zubcic could possibly go to Dallas instead of Memphis, if Memphis doesn't want/need him and/or if Dallas needs a little more in return
- acquire a good, young backup PF (currently only have Faried & Randolph on their roster)
- Amir would be roughly equal money to Chandler, while Davis would save Denver roughly $3-4M each of the next 3 years (assuming all team options are picked-up)
- are still set on the wings: Gallinari, Iguodala, Brewer, Q.Miller, Fournier and even Randolph
- add a late 1st round pick in 2014
- acquire a veteran starting PG, bumping Collison to backup duties
- acquire a young, cheap, capable third string PG in Selby (currently have no third PG, unless you count West)
- Dallas saves $2.3M this season, while also freeing up $3.2M more next offseason for their pursuit of free agents ($6.45M next offseason if you were to include Beaubois' QO)
- are still set at SG: Mayo, West, Cunningham
- replace Gay with Chandler at starting SF spot
- DeRozan effectively replaces Mayo as offensive part of SG combo with Allen
- Bayless becomes third SG/PG
- add a late 1st round pick in 2013
- add rights to 2nd round pick - Zubcic (another trade asset, at the very least)
- Memphis saves roughly $8M this season, bringing them well under the luxury tax threshold
- replace DeRozan (starting SF) with Gay
- replace Calderon (backup PG) with Beaubois
- added defensive wing depth with Jones (assume Carter will be bought-out immediately)
- excluding Carter, Toronto adds roughly $5.5M this season (if Davis is traded) or roughly $1.7M this season (if Amir is traded)
TORONTO'S DEPTH CHART
C: Valanciunas, Gray
PF: Bargnani, Amir/Davis, Acy
SF: Gay, Kleiza, Anderson
SG: Fields, Ross, Jones
PG: Lowry, Beaubois, Lucas
I think Denver (Chandler --> Amir/Davis & 1st round pick) and Memphis (Gay & Selby --> Chandler & DeRozan & 1st round pick) get really good returns for their players, while Dalls (Beaubois & Jones & Carter --> Calderon) unloads crap contracts for a veteran pass-first PG for Dirk's last title run.
Obviously it is dependent on being able to complete 2 trades that each turn 2 2nd round picks (and cash) into a 1st round pick, but I don't think it would be too hard. There are several teams each year that look to sell their 1st round pick to save the guaranteed money, and if they could pickup 2 early-mid 2nd round picks as well, I'm sure willing partners could be found.
I would love Gay in Toronto.
However, a few reasons make me doubt it - even if it were ever a real possibility:
1) Ownership sale in Memphis appears to be happening. Pera has signed on with a group of local ownership. Here is a great article on that. Heisley not being in the business of luxury tax may not apply to Pera and the locals..... we'll see.
2) Cleveland and to a lesser extent Houston. Houston has great assets and are constantly looking for upper tier talent. However, Houston is also in the same division as Memphis. If I were Memphis I would not send Gay to Houston especially when sending him to Toronto likely ensures the Rockets do not get a lottery pick for the next couple of seasons. Cleveland is another matter though. They have a need on the wing, cap space, and a surplus of draft picks. The only hope I would have is Cleveland might think Gay is not enough of a talent to push them beyond the first round and worth losing flexibility over as they rebuild. It should be noted that rumours have placed the Cavs on the phone with the Grizz over Gay.
With that said, I still continue to play with the trade machine. If Memphis is looking to save money and Cleveland is looking for a scoring wing, how about this?
Raps get Gay.
Cavs get Calderon (resign with Bird Rights or on exception to back up Irving) and DD (scoring wing).
Grizz get Casspi, ED, save nearly $50M, 2 second round picks from Raps, Miami 1st round pick from CLE.
This is beyond highly unlikely.
I'm losing hope on a Gay trade to Toronto.. but the one team I never thought about until you brought it up was Jose to Cleveland. Cleveland will have the most cap space going into the season (I believe there are only like 4 or 5 teams with cap space, but Cleveland will be the only one that can take Jose without giving an asset back).
Cleveland has four first round picks owed to them as well. Their own, Sacramento's, Miami's and the Lakers' pick.
If Cleveland has any interest in a backup PG for Irving, and are not looking to tank (how many years can one team tank already), then trading Jose for the 30th pick in a weak draft may not be a bad idea for them.
That of course assumes that Cleveland is not interested in Rudy Gay.
But if they do trade for Gay, then they have absolutely no chance in trying to get a top notch free agent in 2013 like Harden, Smith or Bynum.
First of all, excellent job. This is a 4 team trade and a lot of work has been done to ensure that a) the trade works and b) all teams involved get fair value. Again, excellent job.
Denver might prefer Davis over Amir because of the financial relief it gives them. In my opinion Amir's contract may not appeal to them considering they give up an equally(give or take) big contract in Chandler. Davis and a 1st rounder sounds fair to me.
Memphis I agree gets a good return both in terms of talent and financial relief.
It's okay for Dallas too although they're giving up a little more talent in comparison to what they're acquiring. However, the financial benefit(this year and next) makes up for it. Besides if Carter is waived, they can re-sign him.
Toronto obviously is the biggest recipient in terms of talent and the biggest loser financially. Considering it's Davis and not Amir who's traded(5.5mil increase), it'll be nice to keep at-least one of the 2nd rounders. Mainly because, even though they become stronger and better their play-off chances, there is the risk of things not working out. Also, if I'm right, they go over the Cap.
Overall I like the trade idea.
They also have Orlando's 2013 2nd round pick. That might be worth more than LA or Miami's 2013 1st round pick since a 2nd round pick is not guaranteed. I'd actually rather have the Orlando pick than Miami's or LA's for Jose.
Cleveland has a lot of options available to them. Their future could be bright assuming they draft well and/or use their cap space wisely.
The Lakers pick is the right to swap. So the Cavs have 3 picks (Kings is protected) and right to swap lowest (likely to be MIA) with LA (who might be higher than MIA anyways).
Personally, I'd rather see a Gay trade versus attempting to land a top free agent. Free agency is dicey at the best of times and with the Raps current notoriety and lack of winning, I wouldn't want to risk the farm on it. But no doubt free agency remains an option should the trade route fail.
Also the Cavs are only 2 years in to the post-LBJ rebuild. Even OKC was a 5 year plan and a lot of things fell in to place (read: luck.... or things beyond the Sonics/Thunder control) for that to happen.
I would much rather acquire Dinilo Gallinari as our SF of the future. The only reason we can get him right now is because Denver has an intense SF logjam.
I wouldn't deny to Gallinari, although, defensively, we are at another controversy with another italian. :P