CBA Question - Can we expect salary dumps soon?

With the new tax regulations kicking in next year or the year after (not sure) can we expect salary dumps for certain teams around the league?

I mean Al Jefferson for a pick type of dump. Or when Camby was traded for a second rounder (also a big deal at the time). Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams were both unloaded this year but that was more blowing up the team than avoiding financial liabilities - still we could capitalize on something like that.

So, do you think this is a possibility? When? and who may the potential players be?

Bargs for a pick.

There will likely be some teams dumping salaries, but there are a few factors to consider:

- the actual cap is likely to increase because of projected increasing revenue
- teams have already made allotments for it
- the large impact comes from consistently being an above the cap team (ie. being over the cap for 3 of the last 4 years - not sure if this applies to previous years or from when the agreement happened or from when the restrictions kick in though)

My guess - there will be some. There are usually a few teams every year doing it. But I don't think there will be a drastic amount of salary dumps.

I just realized this.

The old luxury tax is still in effect for 2012-13.

The new (and much more punitive) tax goes in to effect for the 2013-14 season.

I think the salary dumps can be expected at next season trade deadline and draft night.

Quote:

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Craiger wrote:

There will likely be some teams dumping salaries, but there are a few factors to consider:

- the actual cap is likely to increase because of projected increasing revenue
- teams have already made allotments for it
- the large impact comes from consistently being an above the cap team (ie. being over the cap for 3 of the last 4 years - not sure if this applies to previous years or from when the agreement happened or from when the restrictions kick in though)

My guess - there will be some. There are usually a few teams every year doing it. But I don't think there will be a drastic amount of salary dumps.

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Just regarding your last point: The repeater tax rate doesn't apply until 2014-15, and for that season, it only hits teams that have overpaid each of the last three seasons. In 2015-16, it switches to the three-of-the-last-four-years method.

But I think you're exactly right. I have a hard time finding a team that's going to be forced to scramble and drop salary in the next year or two, and even then, it's unlikely they'll be really big contracts. The only teams that are tied in to long-term high payrolls are Brooklyn, Miami, and New York, all of which are probably planning to just pay the repeater tax rates for a shot at a championship.