You give to examples. One is based on a pick coming through on a 2.8% chance to win the lottery. I'll even grant you there is a 10% chance to get into the top three. Are those solid odds for building a team? The next example was not a salary dump..the Nets resigned Wallace (they wanted him). It was also the exceptional circumstance of a basement dwelling team being moved and bought by a gazillionaire. That won't happen too often.
There may be better examples out there, so find them if they are. Otherwise, I can't advocate the plan of trying to succeed by buying your lottery ticket at the corner store that just sold the last winning one.
The Raptors are already going to be a horrible team for the forseeable future. They might as well take on bad contracts and get more picks to increase their odds. 4-18. 2nd worst team in the league. bottom 10 on O. Bottom 5 on D.
One path has no chance. The other path has a small chance. I take small chance over no chance any day. Also, there is generally more than 1 great talent in a draft and that talent is not always selected #1. More draft picks that are likely to be lottery increases opportunities to land a top talent via the draft.
I know the circumstances how Wallace was obtained. The point was the Blazers got a pick and it turned in to Lillard.
The Raptors are already ahead in the game with 4 decent young players on the roster.
The bottom line is that I'd rather have Cleveland's roster than Toronto's. Both have similar records, but Cleveland has stock piled draft picks and cap space. They already have a franchise player in Irving as well.
They haven't done a good job in drafting, in my opinion, but have gone about rebuilding the right way. That's the type of model that I would have liked to seen in Toronto once Bosh left. It's not too late to try again though. It just has to be done with a better GM.
The signs have not been promising, no, but I don't believe 21 games make an entire season; a season that I wasn't even expecting to make the playoffs in anyway.
It's being afraid of drastic change that kept us from trading Bosh and hoping that AB would someday turning into an All Star. Cut your loses and move on, but just don't stand still. You have to respect a GM like Morey whom doesn't rely on hope to get his team ahead. He looks at the situation, evaluates and then does what is necessary to give his team the best chance. The slow death BC is putting us through isn't part of any grand plan that he has to turn this team around. It's based on him not wanting to take chances.
In my opinion the Raptors are already going to be a horrible team for the forseeable future because they have the same management making decisions that has lead to a 5 year playoff drought and are currently in 2nd last place in the entire league with a bottom 10 offense and a bottom 5 defense.
In my opinion, 22 games does in fact make a season when the record is 4-18, the playoffs are out of the question, and there is no sign of change on the horizon.
The season can be salvaged, in my opinion, but it is going to take drastic changes starting with #tradeBargnani and Colangelo's departure.
Colangelo has been fighting the inevitable for years, and has simply wasted time in the process.
Time to tear down and rebuild.
Perfect situation right now would be to get a first round pick for Bargnani (anywhere in the first round), keep Jose and let him expire (can then resign cheap next year or not, doesn't matter.). Don't worry about whether we win or lose games this year, play the young guys (start Jonas and Ross) hope the team is atleast good enough so that the pick is sent to OKC and is out of our hair. See what else can be moved to free up cap space (Demar!) so the team can add bad contracts and high picks.
This is about an awful roster, a team in disarray, a failed plan, and a coaching system that seems to have run its course in 80 games. There are no positive signs.
I argued this all of last year and have reiterated it in a few posts recently, that the only problem with BC's post-Bosh rebuild is that he rushed it. DeRozan, Davis and Valanciunas were all pretty decent picks for where they were picked. The problem is that after drafting Valanciunas, BC rushed from rebuilding into building. Valanciunas was going to stay in Europe for at least one season, a new head coach was hired and it was a lockout-shortened season with no training camp... it was a perfect storm to go into full-tank mode: trade away high priced, veteran, expiring and non-core players for assets (picks and youngsters), while aiming for a top-5 (at least) pick in a loaded draft.
After adding a top-5 pick from the past draft (instead of Ross) and stockpiling other picks and young assets, who knows what subsequent moves BC could have made (ie: Harden??) this past offseason (as opposed to going all-in on a geriatric Nash and the overpaying for Fields in an at least semi-related move). This season should have been the first 'building' season, with playoffs not becoming a realistic goal until next season at the very earliest, which would have gone a long way towards tempering fan expectations.
I do 100% agree that this team's biggest problem is a lack of talent. IMO, this team only has 1 legitimate starter on the roster, and he's an increasingly selfish shoot-first PG who's overrated defensively (Lowry). Valanciunas will no doubt become a legit starter, but he's at least 2 seasons away from becoming that. Bargnani & DeRozan are this team's 2 'go to' players (offensively), but both of them have such inefficient one-dimensional games that they are best suited for backup roles on a legit contending team. Davis/Amir, Fields (if he returns to form after returning to injury) and Ross (2 seasons away) are all solid bench players as well. The rest of this roster (Gray, Acy, Kleiza, Pietrus, Anderson, Calderon, Lucas) are not in the future plans for this team, for various/multiple reasons.
I don't think a blow-it-up full blown rebuild is necessarily required, nor would I be opposed to it (in which case Valanciunas is the only player on the roster I'd worry about keeping). Whether it's a re-tooling type of rebuild or a complete rebuild, I just want it to be properly done without being rushed, with the long-term future in mind and with a goal/model for success to be sustainable.
On a related note, one thing that irks me is that I was in a very small minority last year when I was openly promoting tanking, for the reasons outlined above. This minority of RR posters was chastised for not believing in our great young players and for underestimating the intangible benefit that useless wins provides to team chemistry and building a winning culture. Yet here we are this season, having won all those useless games last season and having stuck with the same primary core, and suddenly an overwhelming majority of RR posters is voting to "Blow it up"... what happened to developing a winning culture and sticking with our young core through the learning experience in the name of team chemistry??? Sometimes there's a method to the madness of the tank commanders...
First bold section: more draft picks equals higher opportunity in the lottery and more chances to find the elusive 'talent'.
The middle section is coulda, shoulda, woulda. Past doesn't matter. We didn't get a top pick.
Second bold section: You were right. So were the others. I, like many, were wrong. The problem with last year is that none of those lessons learned have stuck. This is the 2nd worst team in the league who has lost in a variety of ways to a variety of different talent. The only constants are a horrible offense/defense and losing.
As for the second bold part, that's exactly why I talked about the past, so that we don't repeat the same mistakes (ie: rushing a true rebuilding process).
As frustrated as I am getting with BC (and most posters have been far more frustrated for way longer than I), I wonder whether it was him or ownership that pushed for an accelerated transition from 'rebuilding' to 'building' and then from 'building' to 'targeting playoffs'? I'm certainly not defending BC, I'm honestly just wondering aloud. I worry that the better than expected record last year got fans, management and ownership all too excited, which caused the rebuild to be even further rushed.
I was all for the trade that Cleveland made with the Clippers 2 years ago, which saw them land a top-5 pick for taking on Baron Davis' contract. Even if they didn't amnesty him, I think he only had another year left on it anyway. Had he had 3+ seaons remaining (without amnesty option), suddenly that trade looks much less appealing.
As the current Raps are constructed, there is no flexibility anyways.
The Raps are not going to land any All-Star or near All-STar talent with their current assets even combined with flexibility. They had financial flexibility for the last 2-3 seasons and it brought jack shit. I know this because I was talking about it non-stop and it became nothing.
The Raptors are bad and show no signs of changing that trend. To maximize on that they should, in my opinion, acquire as many assets as possible that reward being bad. In 2-3 years time is the time to be flaunting financial flexibility to sign a star, veteran free agent or make a James Harden-style trade. Taking on a bunch of bad contracts that expire in the next 2-3 seasons would be a good way to start that off - while accumulating draft picks in the process.