Chisholm sums up reality of any Rudy Gay deal

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Chr1s1anL wrote:

Scouting report
+ Smooth, long wing with high-arcing jump shot. Can shoot over the top of a defense.
+ Outstanding transition finisher. Shies from contact and doesn't draw fouls.
+ Doesn't see the floor once he starts dribbling. Underachieves defensively.

Analysis
Gay has All-Star talent, but his jump shot let him down last season and he hasn't picked up his game in other areas. For starters, there's the jumper. Gay's stroke looks wonderful, but it doesn't go in as often as you think. Last season he made only 33.8 percent of his long 2s, and his 31.2 percent mark on 3s dropped his career mark to just 34.7 percent. He can get his shot off against anyone, and there's value in that, but there's not a lot of evidence that he's an above-average shooter.

What does have value is when he takes shots near the basket. Gay shot 64 percent at the rim and had a high foul rate for a jump shooter; in particular, if he gets a step going right, he can throw down some vicious dunks. He also ranked in the top quarter of small forwards in both rebounds and blocks. In a related story, he played a lot of small-ball 4 and at 6-foot-9 may continue doing so going forward.

However, he regressed in other areas. Gay is guilty of dribble blindness, and while he's improved from a few years ago, he still ranked among the bottom 10 small forwards in pure point rating. Defensively, he's had a hard time converting elite athleticism into decent results. His length nets him a lot of blocks and steals, but the Grizzlies gave up 6.0 more points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor.

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I think what Hollinger forgot to mention in his analysis is that Gay has to play alongside 2 big men who clog the paint most of the time. Add a PG in Conley who makes a living off the dribble penetration and the pick and pop and Allen who has zero perimeter shooting. Gay's only way to make points is to take perimeter shots, and the chances of making those are obviously less than when operating closer to the basket.

With the Raptors, Gay will have more shots available to him, in a wider range. From what i've seen, he handles the ball real well, almost 3asts per game is pretty good for a forward. Even if he has the ball, you know he will look to pass to the open man and not always throw up a shot.

Defensively, i think he's pretty good. 99 DRting is up there. Lebron is 103.

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TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote:

I think what Hollinger forgot to mention in his analysis is that Gay has to play alongside 2 big men who clog the paint most of the time. Add a PG in Conley who makes a living off the dribble penetration and the pick and pop and Allen who has zero perimeter shooting. Gay's only way to make points is to take perimeter shots, and the chances of making those are obviously less than when operating closer to the basket.

With the Raptors, Gay will have more shots available to him, in a wider range. From what i've seen, he handles the ball real well, almost 3asts per game is pretty good for a forward. Even if he has the ball, you know he will look to pass to the open man and not always throw up a shot.

Defensively, i think he's pretty good. 99 DRting is up there. Lebron is 103.

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+1

We can't simply look at his stats in a vacuum and say, "he's not much better than what we've got". We have to look at his skill set, and the circumstances surrounding his career to see Gay's value in Toronto.

Gay's game is so extremely well-rounded. He may not excel in any one category, but there are very few holes in his game. He can shoot, he can pass, he can drive, he can defend, he can rebound, etc. A player of his talent-level doesn't come by often.

I still think that staying with our wings and somehow turning Bargs into a Derrick Williams is a good thing for this franchise moving forward. That and I don't want to change my avatar and signature.

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Nilanka wrote:

I think we can all agree that Gay isn't worth his contract. But I'm still of the belief that he's a big upgrade over any wing on our roster.

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That's the whole point right there. Just because a (debatably) better guy is available than the crap you have now, and you happen to have the financial means to get him, doesn't mean that you just go ahead and overpay to do it. That's been BCo's m.o. the entire time he's been here. This is how franchises get stuck on the hamster wheel between the lottery and mediocrity for years. 7 and counting for BCo...

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golden wrote:

That's the whole point right there. Just because a (debatably) better guy is available than the crap you have now, and you happen to have the financial means to get him, doesn't mean that you just go ahead and overpay to do it. That's been BCo's m.o. the entire time he's been here. This is how franchises get stuck on the hamster wheel between the lottery and mediocrity for years. 7 and counting for BCo...

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Holding onto cap space is a good strategy in theory. But when have we ever used it wisely before? On Kapono, Turkoglu, or Fields?

I don't think Gay is worth $17 million, but I do think he's worth somewhere in the $12-15 range (not that far off). Get rid of some of our existing ugly contracts (like Bargnani, Kleiza, Calderon, and to a lesser extent, Fields and Amir), and Gay's contract is more than manageable for 2 years. By year 3 (in a worst-case scenario), if things don't work out, he's a $19 million expiring contract. Not franchise-crippling by any means.

As for the hamster wheel, we're already there. Not crappy enough for a top-3 pick, and not good enough for the playoffs. The only way out of this hole is to commit another 2-3 years of "tanking", or acquire talent via trade. The latter seems like the more likely option at this point.

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Nilanka wrote:

I think we can all agree that Gay isn't worth his contract. But I'm still of the belief that he's a big upgrade over any wing on our roster.

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Nilanka - I dont think the nay-sayers think that he isnt an upgrade..... we just dont think he's that much of an upgrade (moreso we dont think his price tag is worth it). We're actually pretty troubled by his shooting (if you can't make jumpers with Randolph, Gasol, Conley on your team - why do you think he'll be able to shoot better being the clear #1 option on the Raptors???)

Upgrade? Sure.....BIG upgrade?? Stats and other analysis says NOPE

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Balls of Steel wrote:

I still think that staying with our wings and somehow turning Bargs into a Derrick Williams is a good thing for this franchise moving forward. That and I don't want to change my avatar and signature.

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I think our wing rotation is fine. DeMar, Fields, Ross and AA are all fine (nothing spectacular but decent). I can't stand Kleiza and we all know about Bargnani.. Acy is a garbage time player and so that leaves us with Davis and Amir (who is actually playing center).

Unless if you like Fields/Kleiza as a 4, I think we need to upgrade the 4 spot.

I would love a Bargs for Millsap deal. I'd rather have Millsap over Williams who is probably more a 3 than a 4.

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golden wrote:

That's the whole point right there. Just because a (debatably) better guy is available than the crap you have now, and you happen to have the financial means to get him, doesn't mean that you just go ahead and overpay to do it. That's been BCo's m.o. the entire time he's been here. This is how franchises get stuck on the hamster wheel between the lottery and mediocrity for years. 7 and counting for BCo...

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But isnt that the M.O. of every GM in the league? Find ways to improve the team and one of the ways of doing it is to get players better than the crap (according to you) that you currently have? To me, cap space is like a office spending voucher. Initially, you think, wow, i have all this money to spend for the whole year, so i better save it. You find something worthy of buying, you say to yourself, hhhmm, maybe i can get something better, or cheaper, so you wait. And wait. And wait. Till the time comes when the voucher is about to expire and youre stuck and forced to spend it on things that you dont really need. IMO, if you have the money, spend it on the first best thing that comes along. If you think the Raptors have other more surefire prospects than Gay, let me know.

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special1 wrote:

Nilanka - I dont think the nay-sayers think that he isnt an upgrade..... we just dont think he's that much of an upgrade (moreso we dont think his price tag is worth it). We're actually pretty troubled by his shooting (if you can't make jumpers with Randolph, Gasol, Conley on your team - why do you think he'll be able to shoot better being the clear #1 option on the Raptors???)

Upgrade? Sure.....BIG upgrade?? Stats and other analysis says NOPE

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I think Gay is definitely a BIG upgrade over Fields, AA, Ross (at the moment) and Kleiza. Skill and statistics wise. Stats-wise he is currently at par with Demar, but considering Demar is currently the #1 option on his team and Gay's rank with Memphis fluctuates on a nightly basis, i dont see a comparison there, also, Gay and Demar have different positions so i dont see their game overlapping each other's.

The guy has taken 393 jumpshots this season. 393!! Because the memphis bigs are playing in the paint. You cant possibly expect the guy to increase his percentage if he keeps shooting far from the basket.

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TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote:

But isnt that the M.O. of every GM in the league? Find ways to improve the team and one of the ways of doing it is to get players better than the crap (according to you) that you currently have? To me, cap space is like a office spending voucher. Initially, you think, wow, i have all this money to spend for the whole year, so i better save it. You find something worthy of buying, you say to yourself, hhhmm, maybe i can get something better, or cheaper, so you wait. And wait. And wait. Till the time comes when the voucher is about to expire and youre stuck and forced to spend it on things that you dont really need. IMO, if you have the money, spend it on the first best thing that comes along. If you think the Raptors have other more surefire prospects than Gay, let me know.

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+1

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The Minnesota Timberwolves turned down a trade with the Memphis Grizzlies for Rudy Gay, according to a report.

Speculation suggests the Grizzlies offered a deal that would have sent Gay to the Timberwolves in return for Kevin Love and/or Nikola Pekovic.

REALGM

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I'm in favour of acquiring Gay but we shouldn't necessarily be the aggressors in the trade. If Memphis really wants to unload that contract we would have the upper hand. Especially if other teams are rejecting the Grizz offers.

Despite the contract size and Gay's mediocre defense we need him. He would be a piece that helps us win a unit a la Bulls, nuggets, jazz or Grizz. Someone who can handle the ball in the last 10 seconds. Hopefully we move Bargs (and his contract) if Gay came north.

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TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote:

I think Gay is definitely a BIG upgrade over Fields, AA, Ross (at the moment) and Kleiza. Skill and statistics wise. Stats-wise he is currently at par with Demar, but considering Demar is currently the #1 option on his team and Gay's rank with Memphis fluctuates on a nightly basis, i dont see a comparison there, also, Gay and Demar have different positions so i dont see their game overlapping each other's.

The guy has taken 393 jumpshots this season. 393!! Because the memphis bigs are playing in the paint. You cant possibly expect the guy to increase his percentage if he keeps shooting far from the basket.

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Plus, shot-selection is entirely coachable.

I'm not sure if the doubters have watched Gay enough. He's a clear upgrade.

I'm not sure if anyone has even considered it yet but doesn't Gay kind of remind you of Jermaine O'Neal?

JO was 30 at the time where as Gay is 26 so there is a difference but both had big salaries. JO was a perennial all-star but then got injured and was never the same. Gay has a track record of being on the shelf and has been considered a perennial all-star (it's much tougher to make it on the all-star team in the West). He has also regressed from previous years. JO was brought in to please Bosh. You could say Gay could be doing the same for Lowry. The guy that was just drafted (Bargnani) plays the same position as JO. Gay plays a similar position to DeMar who just came off his rookie contract.

To get JO, the Raptors had to give away a first rounder (who ended up becoming Hibbert). To get Gay the Raptors may need to give up a previously drafted first rounder (Davis/Ross, who may end up becoming all-stars).

If Bryan wasn't our GM I would be all over a Gay trade - but because he is I am scared sh!tless.

Gay is having a rough year if you watch him play hes bread and butter most nights guy can ball and put Memphis on his back. All year hes been struggling with his mother on her death bed and she just recently passed, she was at all of his games at home. Gay is a momma's boy its pretty sweet.

I want the deal to happen but just dont move DeRozan, JV or Ross and i'll be happy with it.

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planetmars wrote:

I'm not sure if anyone has even considered it yet but doesn't Gay kind of remind you of Jermaine O'Neal?

JO was 30 at the time where as Gay is 26 so there is a difference but both had big salaries. JO was a perennial all-star but then got injured and was never the same. Gay has a track record of being on the shelf and has been considered a perennial all-star (it's much tougher to make it on the all-star team in the West). He has also regressed from previous years. JO was brought in to please Bosh. You could say Gay could be doing the same for Lowry. The guy that was just drafted (Bargnani) plays the same position as JO. Gay plays a similar position to DeMar who just came off his rookie contract.

To get JO, the Raptors had to give away a first rounder (who ended up becoming Hibbert). To get Gay the Raptors may need to give up a previously drafted first rounder (Davis/Ross, who may end up becoming all-stars).

If Bryan wasn't our GM I would be all over a Gay trade - but because he is I am scared sh!tless.

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hahaha sorry man but i think you're stretching this quite a bit. Its like your wife asking you to buy beans and you come home with broccoli, and youre trying to justify it...um, theyre both green, both vegetables, both start with a B. hehehe

JO already had 12 years under his belt and major, major surgery when he came to the Raps. He was acquired as a piece, not THE piece. He was thought to be a good compliment to Bosh, which i think he was, but injury just took its toll again. Gay is not injury prone. His only injury year was 2010-11 and he came back last year averaging virtually the exact same numbers as he did before he got injured.

I think one notion that we have to get rid of is that Gay and Demar will overlap. Given the non-positional theme of the current NBA, players are still categorized most of the time. In short, Demar is a guard and Gay is a forward. Loud and clear.

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TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote:

I think Gay is definitely a BIG upgrade over Fields, AA, Ross (at the moment) and Kleiza. Skill and statistics wise. Stats-wise he is currently at par with Demar, but considering Demar is currently the #1 option on his team and Gay's rank with Memphis fluctuates on a nightly basis, i dont see a comparison there, also, Gay and Demar have different positions so i dont see their game overlapping each other's.

The guy has taken 393 jumpshots this season. 393!! Because the memphis bigs are playing in the paint. You cant possibly expect the guy to increase his percentage if he keeps shooting far from the basket.

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If we can keep Demar and get rid of Fields, AA, Kleiza, Andrea I would to take Rudy. I just dont want to give up Demar or Ross for him. I think he's overated and overpaid to a certain degree. YES - he would likely be our best player talent wise (I admit that).

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TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote:

hahaha sorry man but i think you're stretching this quite a bit. Its like your wife asking you to buy beans and you come home with broccoli, and youre trying to justify it...um, theyre both green, both vegetables, both start with a B. hehehe

JO already had 12 years under his belt and major, major surgery when he came to the Raps. He was acquired as a piece, not THE piece. He was thought to be a good compliment to Bosh, which i think he was, but injury just took its toll again. Gay is not injury prone. His only injury year was 2010-11 and he came back last year averaging virtually the exact same numbers as he did before he got injured.

I think one notion that we have to get rid of is that Gay and Demar will overlap. Given the non-positional theme of the current NBA, players are still categorized most of the time. In short, Demar is a guard and Gay is a forward. Loud and clear.

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+1 again. You're on a roll today, Glove ;)

The only thing I might disagree with is the overlapping part. Neither DeRozan or Gay are legitimate 3-point threats. In my ideal wing rotation, one of my starters is a bomber. From this perspective, I think Ross is a better compliment to Gay than DeRozan.

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special1 wrote:

If we can keep Demar and get rid of Fields, AA, Kleiza, Andrea I would to take Rudy. I just dont want to give up Demar or Ross for him. I think he's overated and overpaid to a certain degree. YES - he would likely be our best player talent wise (I admit that).

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We are in partial agreement, hehe

In this situation, unfortunately, it seems like in order to get talent, you have to surrender talent. If BC can pull of a Kupchak and acquire Gay like how Kupchak acquired Gasol for scrubs, then by all means! Unfortunately, I dont think (i may be wrong, maybe Gay loves the snow) Toronto is a top-of-the-list destination for Gay like LA was for Gasol, meaning the Lakers had leverage that time and Toronto, at current, does not. So if it means giving up Demar to get Gay, i would have to say yes, only because there is still a fallback with Ross taking over Demar's spot. Ross is already showing that he can play the way Demar is playing, plus a 3 point stroke and much more hustle and effort. If the Raps did not have Ross, i would think twice about giving up Demar for Gay because of the financial implications, but because they have Ross, i wouldnt think twice.

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Nilanka wrote:

+1 again. You're on a roll today, Glove ;)

The only thing I might disagree with is the overlapping part. Neither DeRozan or Gay are legitimate 3-point threats. In my ideal wing rotation, one of my starters is a bomber. From this perspective, I think Ross is a better compliment to Gay than DeRozan.

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hahahaha RR poster of the day!!

I guess you'll +1 my post before this one then coz i just said i'd take Ross over Demar! hahaha

I just mentioned the Demar-Gay tandem because if the Raps do pull-off the Claderon+Davis+pick for Gay trade then most likely DD and Gay will be playing heavy minutes together. But pure one on one comparison, both of them are not threats, but id rather leave Demar on the 3pt line than Gay.

If we play both DD And Gay, who is going to play defense?