With The Current Club, What Are We Missing?

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white men can't jump wrote:

I did say that OKC and Miami are successful using other players in the post. And I also said that is what Casey should do. Both Demar and Gay do well in the post on their one on one matchups (neither are great penetrating from the 3 pt line), but too often the D can just clog the paint because we lack consistent outside shooters. Signing a low-post player to a costly long-term deal seems unrealistic, financially unwise, and potentially harmful to JV's development(not to mention what it might cost since the Raps can only acquire FAs via sign-and-trade). The only low-post oriented players, who cannot stretch out to long range, and who are realistic, or possibly so, are Boozer and Gasol. Committing any more than 1 or 2 years just seems like a bad idea to me. Again, Millsap could work no matter what as he scores pretty well from different areas, but that seems extremely unrealistic as the Raps don't have the best assets to trade (without potentially gutting a team with little flexibility)...I think other than what Bargs returns in a trade, other assets need to be kept in case something else needs to be addressed, such as if Lowry's not the answer at PG, so trying to turn him(in a package) into a better PG.

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Only way it harms JV's development is if the low post is a centre. Having the ability to let JV play off of the low post guy, can give better offensive rebounding, and allows him to learn/play with a guy who attracts inside attention. If anything, this should help JV's development.

Money wise, we are almost done in terms of creating a core for the future/contending. Using guys like Bargnani/Ross + picks to acquire these players, and using MLE to bring in those specialists/veterans is important. At some point, you're going to need to use the flexibility, there's a reason why you keep cap room, and that's to improve for the future. Contracts eventually come off the books, and eventually the team will be back on the side of trying to get as much cap space as possible. This is the time we start to use the flexibility (or any of it left), and start thinking about winning. Look at Houston, team that had A LOT of cap space, and took the opportunity to trade for Harden, and signed him to a max deal.

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Arsenalist wrote:

I thought Andrea might have been able to be that bench player but I seem to have been wrong. Not sure if he can get out of his funk in Toronto, or whether the damage here is too deep. It's unfortunate, because even if he had moderately progressed as a player given his rookie season, he'd be a fine bench asset.

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I still think that Andrea can make a very good bench player. Hopefully in Toronto but most probably somewhere else. The main thing is that he needs to accept it wholeheartedly. One must not forget that he is going through a TERRIBLE time right now. Can there be a bigger understatement? From beginning the season with people predicting that he not only would be 'the' player for Toronto but some even suggesting that he would be the years most improved player possibly making the all-star team, he has gone to coming off the bench(not even option one) and being booed. If this cannot affect a persons self confidence, what can?

Knowing his potential, I think he'll make a very good bench player who can play 4 positions.

New Coach: Stan Van Gundy, Avery Johnson or Nate McMillan
Starting PF: Al Jeff, Millsap or Josh Smith
Backup SF: Anyone but Fields
Backup Veteran C: Anyone but Gray
Backup PG: Anyone but Lucas III or Telfair

If we can address these five glaring holes, we could make a push for the playoff next year. This year, I don't see the Raps making it.

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tenforthewin wrote:

New Coach: Stan Van Gundy, Avery Johnson or Nate McMillan
Starting PF: Al Jeff, Millsap or Josh Smith
Backup SF: Anyone but Fields
Backup Veteran C: Anyone but Gray
Backup PG: Anyone but Lucas III or Telfair

If we can address these five glaring holes, we could make a push for the playoff next year. This year, I don't see the Raps making it.

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Wow. Good post, for the first time, TenForTheWin.

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RaptorReuben wrote:

Only way it harms JV's development is if the low post is a centre. Having the ability to let JV play off of the low post guy, can give better offensive rebounding, and allows him to learn/play with a guy who attracts inside attention. If anything, this should help JV's development.

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Other than Boozer....who isn't a C and is a low-post threat? Millsap plays a lot of face up basketball. Josh Smith is more of an all over the floor uber-utility player (a bigger Shawn Marion with a less awkward shot). He's not a go-to post scorer (they primarily use Horford in that role), and can be prone to falling in love with his jumper. I would take Millsap, because he can post up a bit and face up, so it gives a lot of versatility...but I just don't see him somehow being acquired. Jefferson plays mostly at C....I don't know...honestly, I'm just asking, what options are there? Even Gasol, seems like playing him too much at PF wouldn't be the best idea, but for only a year, would be totally ok with that acquisition. The cost of he or Millsap, given Utah probably won't want Bargs (if they do, then great), could be very high. I, for one, am not willing to flip Demar for Millsap...Demar is still improving at a very weak position in the NBA. Millsap is probably the player he will be and has never made an all-star appearance, and plays maybe the strongest position in the NBA. And giving up Demar for a one-year rental like Gasol is a non-starter IMO. Same thing for Ross...he could end up being the 6th man this team needs, and he's on a rookie contract, obviously other teams will be after him, and trying to get him thrown in if there are Bargs talks involved. If a team is willing to take Bargs just to get Ross, this should be a signal that Ross is way too valuable to be let go.

-Seriously, I'm not trying to sound aggressive, I just can't think of realistic PF options who are actually what you'd call a guy you can just dump the ball into regularly. I keep coming back to Boozer. I don't see the Raps having a shot at any of the FAs available this year. As consolation prizes, maybe they could get a Carl Landry or Elton Brand (though I think he'll stay in Dallas if they'll have him).

-So in order of preference and at least some amount of realism, I'd go Boozer, then switch to a stretch PF like Ilyasova (maybe if we take back Gooden's contract the Bucks might consider Bargs? Please? God?), and then focus on value FAs like Landry and Brand, maybe Earl Clark, and some other 4th big options like B. Wright, Turiaf, etc... The Raptors really will not have many options to upgrade talent at the big positions without significantly weakening other spots. I think the only hope that they might have at guys like Gasol or Millsap will depend on the market this offseason...there are several big name PFs and Cs, so LA and Utah may not get trade (or s&t) offers they like.

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white men can't jump wrote:

Other than Boozer....who isn't a C and is a low-post threat? Millsap plays a lot of face up basketball. Josh Smith is more of an all over the floor uber-utility player (a bigger Shawn Marion with a less awkward shot). He's not a go-to post scorer (they primarily use Horford in that role), and can be prone to falling in love with his jumper. I would take Millsap, because he can post up a bit and face up, so it gives a lot of versatility...but I just don't see him somehow being acquired. Jefferson plays mostly at C....I don't know...honestly, I'm just asking, what options are there? Even Gasol, seems like playing him too much at PF wouldn't be the best idea, but for only a year, would be totally ok with that acquisition. The cost of he or Millsap, given Utah probably won't want Bargs (if they do, then great), could be very high. I, for one, am not willing to flip Demar for Millsap...Demar is still improving at a very weak position in the NBA. Millsap is probably the player he will be and has never made an all-star appearance, and plays maybe the strongest position in the NBA. And giving up Demar for a one-year rental like Gasol is a non-starter IMO. Same thing for Ross...he could end up being the 6th man this team needs, and he's on a rookie contract, obviously other teams will be after him, and trying to get him thrown in if there are Bargs talks involved. If a team is willing to take Bargs just to get Ross, this should be a signal that Ross is way too valuable to be let go.

-Seriously, I'm not trying to sound aggressive, I just can't think of realistic PF options who are actually what you'd call a guy you can just dump the ball into regularly. I keep coming back to Boozer. I don't see the Raps having a shot at any of the FAs available this year. As consolation prizes, maybe they could get a Carl Landry or Elton Brand (though I think he'll stay in Dallas if they'll have him).

-So in order of preference and at least some amount of realism, I'd go Boozer, then switch to a stretch PF like Ilyasova (maybe if we take back Gooden's contract the Bucks might consider Bargs? Please? God?), and then focus on value FAs like Landry and Brand, maybe Earl Clark, and some other 4th big options like B. Wright, Turiaf, etc... The Raptors really will not have many options to upgrade talent at the big positions without significantly weakening other spots. I think the only hope that they might have at guys like Gasol or Millsap will depend on the market this offseason...there are several big name PFs and Cs, so LA and Utah may not get trade (or s&t) offers they like.

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That's why Colangelo makes the decisions, and not us. Still, regardless of what type of game they play - Versatile, face-up - these guys are still an inside presence. They spend a lot of their time within the paint. Regardless if they have their back to the basket or facing up and driving from a couple feet out.

I think Toronto needs more of a inside presence than a post-presence, but both would be very welcomed. Problem is, how much are they worth, and will they stay? Ross is getting buried, if playing time becomes an issue, using him as a trade-able asset would definitely be great, because like I said, potential, cheap contract are very attractive. Package him with a 1st rounder - if Toronto doesn't make the playoffs - and Bargnani/Fields/Anderson etc. for that type of player. Use MLE or whatever of these assets left to acquire the other needs via trade/free-agency.

EDIT: To your point about having Ross be the very sixth man that we need, using the MLE to acquire a player of that stature or using the assets to acquire that guy is also very possible.

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RaptorReuben wrote:

To be successful in the playoffs, you need a BIG or SOMEONE who can attract double teams in the low post. The game slows down in the post-season. You need to space the floor, and that comes with an inside post presence (JV is not there yet) to make defenses adjust to guard the inside, and perimeter shooters so they don't load up on the low block.

You might say "hey, look at OKC, Miami. They were in the finals last year, neither have low post players!"

Wrong. LeBron and Wade play a significant amount in the low post, and believe it or not, Durant and Westbrook spend time in the low block creating from there.

Unless Casey starts drawing up a system/set which allows Derozan and Gay to sit in that low block and create shots for themselves/others from there, we need a big, especially because behind JV and Amir, who comes in and provides what goes off? Bargnani? Pft, yeah right. Rebounding, low post scoring, and a shot-blocker/help/post defender is what we really need right now. Perimeter shooters follow, a back-up point guard would be nice - please not Calderon, he clearly sees himself as a starter - and some type of bench scorer.

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We can't even GET to the playoffs. Have to address needs where they're most needed. Low-post presence does nothing to help us get there. Again, I ask, who is this amazing PF/C that attracts doubles on the block we're getting? There aren't many left that play that style of game. I'm fine with Gay playing in the post IF we made the playoffs. I actually like his game down-low way better than his iso face-up game. Rebounding we need. Low-post threat, I'm not so sure.

Also, people have to stop considering Anderson a trade asset. His contract expires. He's officially completely useless toward the future of this club and is getting playing time....

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RobertArchibald wrote:

We can't even GET to the playoffs. Have to address needs where they're most needed. Low-post presence does nothing to help us get there. Again, I ask, who is this amazing PF/C that attracts doubles on the block we're getting? There aren't many left that play that style of game. I'm fine with Gay playing in the post IF we made the playoffs. I actually like his game down-low way better than his iso face-up game. Rebounding we need. Low-post threat, I'm not so sure.

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Maybe not so much a low-post threat, more so an inside presence. Whether he's facing up, or back-to-the-basket.

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white men can't jump wrote:

Also, people have to stop considering Anderson a trade asset. His contract expires. He's officially completely useless toward the future of this club and is getting playing time....

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I believe he has a player option.

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RaptorReuben wrote:

I believe he has a player option.

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No, he doesn't. Kleiza and Gray do. Lucas has a team option. Lowry's is non-guaranteed..I believe a partial guarantee.

http://www.hoopsworld.com/toronto-raptors-team-salary
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/toronto.htm

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white men can't jump wrote:

No, he doesn't. Kleiza and Gray do. Lucas has a team option. Lowry's is non-guaranteed..I believe a partial guarantee.

http://www.hoopsworld.com/toronto-raptors-team-salary
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/toronto.htm

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Okay, I knew I was wrong lol. I think it's likely Toronto might re-sign Anderson, because he's likely to be cheap, and not many players out there willing to take that money that are similar to him.

crazy idea, but what about Kenyon Martin or Ben Wallace. Unlikely, but these guys are veterans, they know how to play (K-Mart had a pretty solid campaign with the clippers last season, Wallace was a 4 time defensive player of the year and two-time rebounding champion) what do you think of either one as an EXTREMELY last resort

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white men can't jump wrote:

I still think that low-post threat is being given way too much attention. JV is going to be scoring on the inside more and more as he improves. Amir also does most of his damage rolling to the basket and with little drop shots and hooks. I think if any PF is going to be a long-term acquisition...say a 3-4 year deal, then it's way more important that such a PF actually can hit jumpers consistently, as a pick-n-pop threat. I would be fine with Millsap, who's an all-around threat to score, or Ilyasova as kind of the stretch 4 version of Amir....My fallback player to go after with the MLE is Carl Landry.

I think signing a guy like Jefferson will just lead to having to trade him within a couple of years as he's too slow to play a lot of PF (mostly plays C for Utah), not long or very good defensively, and will make it harder to find JV post touches as he grows. I am somewhat ok with Gasol because it would only be a one year rental. I am also somewhat ok with Boozer as at least there is no positional overlap with JV, so at least he won't take his minutes even if he takes some touches.

The other thing we are missing is Landry Fields' jump shot....every time I see AA out there monopolizing the offense like he's Michael Jordan, I can't help but think how badly we need an actual glue guy out on the floor. I'd also hope that any new backup PG is a better glue guy than Lucas. I think with Casey this year he's shown that he really overvalues shooting...that's why guys like Andrea, AA and Lucas see so much time. He seems more worried that other guys will miss looks those guys make (as if those guys don't go ice cold for long stretches), rather than realizing how a guy like Fields will look for higher % plays, be it for him or another player. *not suggesting Fields should necessarily be getting big minutes, but rather if his jumper wasn't so broken, I can't imagine why AA would ever see the floor over him

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I agree if Casey trust Fields to guard melo why can't he play defense on the second unit. He's not going to hurt you by taking bad shots. He keeps the ball moving, brings energy into the game and has shown he can rebound. Other than his 3pt % he not shooting badly. He doesn't take a lot of shots maybe up to 4 a game since the trade and make more than he misses. We have enough shooters. He's more of a movement guy and doesn't thrive in slow down iso possessions. He makes good decesions on the fly and has shown he can lead the break. He can also finish on the break as he showed last year with all the lobs he got with Lin in New York. We haven't thrown any to him this year and his best offensive games unfortunately have come when Jose was running the offense. I'm not saying he's the cure-all but he hasn't played badly when given the minutes whether it's been guarding multiple positions, rebounding, ect and since the trade games in which he's played 8 minutes or less we've lost. in our last two wins he's gotten minutes and played a part in not with his scoring but his floor game.

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hateslosing wrote:

A low post threat is the most pressing concern offensively. JV may get there but it will be a year or three before he's good enough to get there consistently. I don't think the offense is our problem though, we are actually ranked reasonably high in offensive efficiency.

I think our biggest weakness are that:

a. We suck at rebounding, which is arguably the biggest sign of a winning team. We are currently bottom ten in every rebounding % metric and 29th in rbs per game. Our best rebounder, Amir, is 47th in rbs per game and we have no one in the top 50 for rebounds per 36.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2013.html

b. We are an awful defensive team. I don't know what happened to last years defensive tenacity but this year we've been terrible. This is mainly a coaching issue, our hedges are not as hard as they used to be and we aren't recovering fast enough. Giving up offensive rebounds and turnovers kills us. The fact we are always undersized doesn't help either.

Basically we need to upgrade at both big spots and get our focus back defensively. Amir is very much improved this season and if we were very strong at center would be a very good hustle guy in with our starters. Maybe Val will get there and be the elite rebounder and post player that we need (think Noah or this years Varejao), but until he does we are going to have a lot of trouble with defense and rebounding.

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Seriously. WTF did happen?

Last year 3rd in defensive rebound percentage (75.4%), this year 23rd (72.6%).

Last year 9th (94.0) in OppPPG, this year 17th (98.5).

Last year 14th (104.5) in DefRtg, this year 24th (107.7).



And it isn't pace; last year 6th slowest (89.3), this year 6th slowest (89.9).

we turn the ball over a shitload, and that leads to easy buckets. Don't know why the rebounding is so bad, maybe casey isn't stressing enough how important it is.

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Matt52 wrote:

Seriously. WTF did happen?

Last year 3rd in defensive rebound percentage (75.4%), this year 23rd (72.6%).

Last year 9th (94.0) in OppPPG, this year 17th (98.5).

Last year 14th (104.5) in DefRtg, this year 24th (107.7).



And it isn't pace; last year 6th slowest (89.3), this year 6th slowest (89.9).

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I can't believe the defense is bad as it is.. however if I had to take a guess, the problems are probably because of the following:

1) JV - a rookie center getting big minutes is not going to help defensively
2) Lowry - gambles too much, is pretty bad at PnR defense, IMO
3) Bargnani disappeared; Davis was not very good defensively either.
4) Casey preached offensive improvements in camp which caused their defense to regress.
5) This year was not a shortened season and so teams could easily scout the Raptors and plan better.

I do think the defense will improve naturally next season. I don't think the team needs an influx of talent to improve the defense. However a PF that rebounds would definitely help.

We absolutely need rebounding, because Amir is our best rebounder and unless everyone besides the PG gets 7.1 rebounds a game. We need a bench, and I don't want to sound too certain, but another summer of T-Ross getting stronger, hell even Q, we could most definitely have a more productive wing rotation. I honestly think that with some more bulk he could be a really good bench Reggie Evans type player.

We need to add 2 big guys. The first one should be a starting caliber big man (solid all around PF) and the second is a role player who's tough, brings energy, basketball IQ (I'm thinking a Nick Collison type). Quincy Acy can develop into that role but I'm not sure about his IQ.

We need a back up point guard to be the leader of the bench unit.

We need Fields to develop some resemblance of a 3 point shot because I do agree with other posters that he is smart enough to take good shots, cuts hard, defends well. The only thing really missing is his ability to hit the 3. I would even gamble and try him out as a point forward role because he has that kind of IQ & overall, his ball skills are pretty good.

We need DeMar, Rudy and Kyle (especially) to hit the weight room. Like Jack said in that 48 minute rant, "skill work, strength and fitness."

Last, but not the least, change in tempo is needed. We have to be a faster team. Teams that grind it out have punishing big men. They kind of have to play slow to take advantage of their strength.

Our offense is suited for a point guard who can make reads. Once that breaks down, we go isolation. For everyone who says the Raptors don't have shooters, Rudy and Demar overlap each other, what about Denver? They lead the league in points in the paint yet they don't have a low post threat. They play to their strengths and what their team is suited for. I think the Raptors should do the same.

Maybe that means a change in coaching staff or simply Casey realizing his pound the rock philosophy makes it harder for the team.

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akashsingh wrote:

we turn the ball over a shitload, and that leads to easy buckets. Don't know why the rebounding is so bad, maybe casey isn't stressing enough how important it is.

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That might be a major reason our defensive ratings have gone down. Transition defense is pretty bad too, which leads to easier baskets, not to mention Casey has stressed more of an offensive mind in the players compared to last season, because he assumed the defense would stay the same.