Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
It was very thought-provoking. I think somebody earlier mentioned that it all comes down to points per possession.

10 possessions, 1 shot each:

3 pt shots (30%) = 10 x 0.3 x 3 = 9 points

2 pt shots (40%) = 10 x 0.4 x 2 = 8 points


Obviously there's much more to a game than simply choosing between 2 equally open shots, but it's interesting to think about. It's also no suprise, given the success the Raptors have had in games when their 3pt shots have been falling.
Really that's not even analytics...it's common sense and basic math.

Kyle Lowry shoots 40% from three (actually 39% but 40% work nicer) which is the equivalent of someone shooting 60% from the field. (calc: 3*0.4=1.2 1.2/2=0.6)

Conclusion: Kyle Lowry shooting threes is our better than anyone on our team shooting two's.

Bigger conclusion: John Lucas III shoots 42% from three. He should take all the shots ever.

Obviously this is an oversimplification, JLIII doesn't get open for threes is Gay, DD, and Amir arent drawing the defense in. This does make me re-evaluate the value of a guy like Terrance Ross though, who likes to jack threes. Maybe he's actually making good decisions: he shoots 33% from 3, which is equivalent to almost 50% from the floor.