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Thread: What would the Raptors record be without Rudy Gay this season?

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    Raptors Republic Superstar TRex's Avatar
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    Default What would the Raptors record be without Rudy Gay this season?

    The Raptors are just 2.5 win percentage points ahead of last season's team. And i said this on the other thread, this team even without Gay is more talented than last year's team.

    If the Raptors didn't trade for Rudy the way this Raps team is playing right now they probably would battle Charlotte and Orlando for the Ben McLemore sweepstakes.

    I mean, this team has regressed big time from last year. I'm thinking that last year might be nothing more than an illusion. I mean, defensively they're AWFUL and offensively they're a mess. I don't think Casey has an idea what they're doing offensively.
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    Super Moderator ReubenJRD's Avatar
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    Quote TRex wrote: View Post
    The Raptors are just 2.5 win percentage points ahead of last season's team. And i said this on the other thread, this team even without Gay is more talented than last year's team.

    If the Raptors didn't trade for Rudy the way this Raps team is playing right now they probably would battle Charlotte and Orlando for the Ben McLemore sweepstakes.

    I mean, this team has regressed big time from last year. I'm thinking that last year might be nothing more than an illusion. I mean, defensively they're AWFUL and offensively they're a mess. I don't think Casey has an idea what they're doing offensively.
    You already answered it. Just his presence alone has been able to grab us some big wins.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
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    If the Raptors didn't trade for Gay they'd be in nearly similar situation. Maybe a couple losses more, but not in anyway shape or form battling for the very bottom.

    If they'd traded for Gay at the start of the year, they'd still be crossing their fingers hoping someone else loses so they could make the playoffs.

    Now if they'd traded Bargnani for Gay at the start of the year (not that that was necessarily even possible) - and therefore added a better player, while also adding by subtraction, without given up some of this teams better player - well thats a different story.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Rapstor4Life's Avatar
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    If they traded for Gay at the beginning of the season this would have been a playoff team with Telfair running back up not Lucas.

    They would be hovering between 7 and 8 sneaking in. Also Lowry would havent of had the pressure to change his game to appease people, he also wouldnt think its up to him all the time with his 2 homies Gay and DeRozan to lean on beside him. Lowry at the start of the season thought it was all on him..

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Soft Euro's Avatar
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    Quote Rapstor4Life wrote: View Post
    If they traded for Gay at the beginning of the season this would have been a playoff team with Telfair running back up not Lucas.

    They would be hovering between 7 and 8 sneaking in. Also Lowry would havent of had the pressure to change his game to appease people, he also wouldnt think its up to him all the time with his 2 homies Gay and DeRozan to lean on beside him. Lowry at the start of the season thought it was all on him..
    We're playing about the ugliest basketball of the league. Yes, we won some games, but if you play that bad winning isn't really sustainable. No way in hell we would have been in play-off contention playing like this. It's unbearable to watch, we suck big time.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star slaw's Avatar
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    Are people going to buy into the Colangelo fantasyland spin that Gay would have made everything different? Really?

    I always wonder who Devlin and Leo think they are fooling with their nonsense but it appears to work on a bunch of people.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
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    Quote slaw wrote: View Post
    Are people going to buy into the Colangelo fantasyland spin that Gay would have made everything different? Really?

    I always wonder who Devlin and Leo think they are fooling with their nonsense but it appears to work on a bunch of people.
    Seriously, this team has had plenty of problems since the trade. Also, on major problem has persisted from the very first game of the year, and that is the tendency to play selfish isolation basketball. This hasn't disappeared with Gay. It's gotten worse and is one of the biggest problems this team has on a nightly basis. The other major problem is a lack of defensive focus and energy, which also are not significantly better since Gay got here. Am I blaming Gay? No, I'm just saying that this team has not worked out any of the issues that has plagued it all year, regardless of the roster.

    Gay upgraded talent at one position....but this team has arguably not been any better since the trade.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
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    Quote RaptorReuben wrote: View Post
    You already answered it. Just his presence alone has been able to grab us some big wins.
    I will give him this though, that he is a better "closer" than any guys we have...but also in the most limited possibly way: as in, if you need someone to hit 1 shot at the end of a game, he can get one for you. Toronto desperately lacked that.

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    Default Our record would be around 34-36 instead of 26-44

    This is actually any easy question to answer. Our record without the trade would be around: 34-36.

    We have lost around 8 wins so far because of the Rudy Gay trade (3 lost from Jose, 4 lost from Ed - assuming he had earned a place ahead of Andrea, and 1 lost in 'gaining' Rudy)


    Using the stats on thenbageek.com, we can see that:
    - Jose Calderon is at +0.235 wins/48 mins ... vs. Kyle Lowry +0.201 and John Lucas +0.023
    - Ed Davis is at +.203 wins/48 mins ... vs. Alan Anderson +.022 or Andrea Bargnani -.148
    - Rudy Gay is at -0.002 wins/48 mins ... vs. Landry Fields +.144

    1. Losing Calderon: -3 wins to date
    Kyle's added minutes for Jose is a small step down: 0.035 wins/48 ... maybe -0.5 wins.
    The fact that John Lucas is playing instead of Jose/Kyle: let's say 600 of his 711 mins due to trade = -2.5 wins.

    2. 'Gaining' Rudy Gay: -1 win to date
    Playing Rudy Gay instead of Landry Fields costs 0.146/48 ... let's assume half Rudy's mins from Landry = -1 win
    Rudy vs. Alan Anderson is a wash: if Rudy's minutes from Alan, then it's a wash.

    3. Losing Ed Davis: -4 wins to date
    We're seeing what seems like a lot more 'small ball' after losing Eddie Davis/Andrea.
    It sounded like Andrea was going to be on the bench more, and Davis had earned right to play.
    I'm going to guess around 700 more minutes for Ed vs. Andrea/AA: that's 0.263/48 = 3.8 call it 4 wins

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