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Thread: Is anyone else worried we're going to get "lucky" and get a top 4 pick this year?

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    Raptors Republic Veteran ceez's Avatar
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    Default Is anyone else worried we're going to get "lucky" and get a top 4 pick this year?

    After watching the past few days of march madness and how terrible all the potential lotto pick players are if we somehow end up with a top 4 pick and lose out on one of the next few couple future drafts will be sooooooooooooooo awful oh my god i get the shivers just thinking about it all

    what a awful year this has been
    @jerboat

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    Raptors Republic Starter OzRapFan's Avatar
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    Quote ceez wrote: View Post
    After watching the past few days of march madness and how terrible all the potential lotto pick players are if we somehow end up with a top 4 pick and lose out on one of the next few couple future drafts will be sooooooooooooooo awful oh my god i get the shivers just thinking about it all

    what a awful year this has been
    If it can go wrong it will, we will get a top 4 that will be a bust and Oklahoma will get next years number 5 that will turn out to be the second coming of Lebron

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    Raptors Republic All-Star TRex's Avatar
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    This is definitely looking like the worst draft class since the 2000 draft. But i don't think it's going to be that bad though. There's some talent in this class. Noel, Zeller, Oladipo, Muhammad, Bennett, Porter, McLemore and Smart. These are the guys that i like the are projected to go in the lottery. Not franchise players but good players.

    Then there are guys that are projected to go mid/late 1st round like Robinson III, Len, Burke, McAdoo, Kabongo, Carter-Williams, McDermott, Saric, and Hardaway Jr. All very intriguing prospects.
    Last edited by TRex; Mon Mar 25th, 2013 at 02:19 AM.
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    The way they're playing, it's possible they'll end up with a pick. If they do, it may not be as bad as it seems. Raps. go into the off-season with a few needs to address. One of them can be addressed in the draft. Who knows? Maybe the player they pick(if they do) will become a very good player.
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    Raptors Republic Starter Papa Burgundy's Avatar
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    Can't get top 4, the lottery is only for the top 3 spots - any else would go to the Thunder.

    The main reason I think it would be bad has nothing to do with talent at the top end of the draftboard, but with the fact that we are young enough! We need veteran leadership, as so much of our team is very young.

    That's a reason the Lowry deal made sense ... we needed a starting PG more than continuing to bring in young pieces. I'd be real happy to lose this year's pick, add a PF and PG via Bargnani trade and Exception signings ... and have control of our picks moving forward.
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    Even very weak drafts produce all-stars and near all-stars. Look at the list of players drafted the same year as Bargs. Alderidge, Rondo, Thomas, Gay. Any of those guys on a rookie contract would look pretty good.

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    Quote OzRapFan wrote: View Post
    If it can go wrong it will, we will get a top 4 that will be a bust and Oklahoma will get next years number 5 that will turn out to be the second coming of Lebron
    It can only be top 3 for the Raptors. I agree that this is the year to let the draft pick go, but I'm not sure it would be that much difference between a top-3 this year and an 9-14 next year (if that's where the Raptors finish). Even if they don't like this year's crop, if they draft a top-3 player they could then trade that player for a good asset (at least a first-rounder for next year). There will be some teams sold on one of the top-3 picks from this year.

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    Raptors Republic Starter mountio's Avatar
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    Quote ceez wrote: View Post
    After watching the past few days of march madness and how terrible all the potential lotto pick players are if we somehow end up with a top 4 pick and lose out on one of the next few couple future drafts will be sooooooooooooooo awful oh my god i get the shivers just thinking about it all

    what a awful year this has been
    If we do get a top 3 pick this year (and thus keep it), I dont think thats a bad thing. Realistically, with the roster as constituted and the money we have locked up, we are well past tanking for next year. As a result, we are probably looking at a year where we scrape and claw for the playoffs. So, Ill take a top 3 pick in a weak draft over a 15ish pick in a strong draft (especially since we will have that player for an extra year)

    I think thats what people lose sight of. Of course, Id rather have a top 5 pick next year vs a top five pick this year. But, I dont think thats the realistic comparison that we should be making (unless we are willing / able to gut our team now, which I dont think is happening).

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Mediumcore's Avatar
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    Quote mountio wrote: View Post
    If we do get a top 3 pick this year (and thus keep it), I dont think thats a bad thing. Realistically, with the roster as constituted and the money we have locked up, we are well past tanking for next year. As a result, we are probably looking at a year where we scrape and claw for the playoffs. So, Ill take a top 3 pick in a weak draft over a 15ish pick in a strong draft (especially since we will have that player for an extra year)

    I think thats what people lose sight of. Of course, Id rather have a top 5 pick next year vs a top five pick this year. But, I dont think thats the realistic comparison that we should be making (unless we are willing / able to gut our team now, which I dont think is happening).
    +1

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer Matt52's Avatar
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    Quote mountio wrote: View Post
    If we do get a top 3 pick this year (and thus keep it), I dont think thats a bad thing. Realistically, with the roster as constituted and the money we have locked up, we are well past tanking for next year. As a result, we are probably looking at a year where we scrape and claw for the playoffs. So, Ill take a top 3 pick in a weak draft over a 15ish pick in a strong draft (especially since we will have that player for an extra year)

    I think thats what people lose sight of. Of course, Id rather have a top 5 pick next year vs a top five pick this year. But, I dont think thats the realistic comparison that we should be making (unless we are willing / able to gut our team now, which I dont think is happening).
    My fear is that the belief of this team making the playoffs as an 8th seed next season is as ridiculous as it was to think Bargnani was capable of staying motivated and/or healthy over a span larger than 20 games.

    This team is not that far ahead of where it was 2 years ago. Just to reach Hollinger's mocked 33 game prediction (of which I mocked myself, not that 38/39 wins was a great achievement) the Raps need to go 7-5. My fingers actually hurt typing that.
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    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
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    Quote mountio wrote: View Post
    If we do get a top 3 pick this year (and thus keep it), I dont think thats a bad thing. Realistically, with the roster as constituted and the money we have locked up, we are well past tanking for next year. As a result, we are probably looking at a year where we scrape and claw for the playoffs. So, Ill take a top 3 pick in a weak draft over a 15ish pick in a strong draft (especially since we will have that player for an extra year)

    I think thats what people lose sight of. Of course, Id rather have a top 5 pick next year vs a top five pick this year. But, I dont think thats the realistic comparison that we should be making (unless we are willing / able to gut our team now, which I dont think is happening).
    Not only that, but if the combination of an already improved roster (compared to the start of the season), potential offseason moves (ie: trade Bargnani, amnesty Kleiza, who knows what else) and adding a top-3 draft pick result in this team taking a big leap forward (a huge IF), there's a chance that the Raps never have to giveup a lottery pick to OKC. If the Raps are a playoff team through the 2017-2018 season, then the team's 2018 1st round pick goes to OKC regardless where it falls - ideally out of the lottery!

    The only down-side of that approach is that the team is unable to use future 1st round picks as a trade asset. However, that could very easily be viewed as a good or bad thing. If the team becomes a perennial playoff team for the next five seasons, I don't think that will be as big of an issue as it seems at the moment, when we're dreaming up all sorts of scenarios of how 1st round picks could be traded to help [re]build this non-playoff team.

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    Raptors Republic Rookie RaptorFanatic01's Avatar
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    We only keep the pick if its top 3, if its 4 it goes to okc

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    Raptors Republic Starter mountio's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    My fear is that the belief of this team making the playoffs as an 8th seed next season is as ridiculous as it was to think Bargnani was capable of staying motivated and/or healthy over a span larger than 20 games.

    This team is not that far ahead of where it was 2 years ago. Just to reach Hollinger's mocked 33 game prediction (of which I mocked myself, not that 38/39 wins was a great achievement) the Raps need to go 7-5. My fingers actually hurt typing that.
    I hear ya .. but there will clearly be teams in full on tank mode next year. We will not be one of them (its essentially impossible given the guys we have / money we have committed).

    As bad as this team has looked the last few games .. I think there will be a lot more "free" wins next year than this year given tanking that will be going on. Charlotte, Orlando, Phoenix, Sacremento to name a few will be going all out. I also wouldnt be surprised if a team like Minny trades Love in an attempt to start over (they are in a much better position to do this than we are)

    So, add that to what admittedly is probably some false optimism that with a full year of Gay and Lowry together and a year of development from JV and TR and this team should be a little bit better than the 10th place that we currently are in the east.

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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    This team is not that far ahead of where it was 2 years ago.
    Not in terms of record but it is in terms of talent. Keep in mind that BC is using the season to rebuild, therefore some holes. The holes should be plugged in the off-season.
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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer Matt52's Avatar
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    Quote Eric Akshinthala wrote: View Post
    Not in terms of record but it is in terms of talent. Keep in mind that BC is using the season to rebuild, therefore some holes. The holes should be plugged in the off-season.
    That is fair enough - no doubt the talent has been upped.

    However, with likely no draft pick and no cap space I don't feel confident right now.

    All that could change pretty quick, of course, but it would likely mean AB and one of DD or TR are the pieces moved to plug holes (assumptions on my part).

    It also doesn't help me that I personally have lost all faith in GM and coach. I hope to be proven incorrect..... like so many who capitulate at the very worst time.
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    I don't like any of the guys at the top of the draft in part because all of them have bust potential, and because none of them fit a need for the Raptors, or are even upgrades over starters we already have. And with the Raptors as bad as we are, it says a lot about this draft that a first overall draft pick wouldn't immediately upgrade any position on the roster. Do we bring in Noel or Zeller to play behind Valanciunas? McLemore or Muhammad, and then sort out the overloaded SG position with a trade later? Is Smart deserving of a top 3 pick when he probably plays behind Lowry, at least for now? Do you reach on an undersized PF in Bennett (although one with an exceptional physique for his age)? I don't really like any of those options. I think at that point you really need to phone around and see if anyone is really high on one of those guys and willing to overpay for them. These guys are probably starters for certain teams in the league, particularly those who have holes at SG or C.

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    Quote mountio wrote: View Post
    If we do get a top 3 pick this year (and thus keep it), I dont think thats a bad thing. Realistically, with the roster as constituted and the money we have locked up, we are well past tanking for next year.
    Depends what happens next year. Just thinking of the scenario, where Lowry and Gay turn out to not be people to build the team around (I hope that doesn't happen). Then certainly Lowry can get traded at the trade deadline with his expiring contract, and get as many draft picks as possible, and go into full tank mode. We do need to win enough games this year to have a draft pick next year, though.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar isaacthompson's Avatar
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    Quote RapRepRip wrote: View Post
    Depends what happens next year. Just thinking of the scenario, where Lowry and Gay turn out to not be people to build the team around (I hope that doesn't happen). Then certainly Lowry can get traded at the trade deadline with his expiring contract, and get as many draft picks as possible, and go into full tank mode. We do need to win enough games this year to have a draft pick next year, though.
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    Raptors Republic Starter JordanMariam14's Avatar
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    why tho? why don't you tank the season and get a top 3 pick, make the playoffs next year.
    i have high hopes for next year and whats the point of keeping the pick if we're going to get a worser pick, not like we're getting wiggns or parker. this year in the top 3 we can hope to get a plyer like noel, or zeller to pair up with valanciunas.

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    Raptors Republic Starter mountio's Avatar
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    Quote RapRepRip wrote: View Post
    Depends what happens next year. Just thinking of the scenario, where Lowry and Gay turn out to not be people to build the team around (I hope that doesn't happen). Then certainly Lowry can get traded at the trade deadline with his expiring contract, and get as many draft picks as possible, and go into full tank mode. We do need to win enough games this year to have a draft pick next year, though.
    Not sure that really works. A) the draft is expected to be super strong .. cant imagine that people will be trading them away very readily, certainly for a rental of Lowry (especially if he isnt playing well, which would suggest his value is MUCH lower than the pick we traded for him .. even if he still had the same two years left on his contract .. which obviously he wont)

    On top of that, look at how much $ we have committed in 2015 (let alone 2014). Gay $19 mm, AB $12, AJ $7, LF $8,5m, DD 9.5 mm. Its gonna be VERY hard to blow that up and get people to take on those contracts.

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