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Thread: Arthur: Raps reach another fork in the road

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    Raptors Republic All-Star slaw's Avatar
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    Default Arthur: Raps reach another fork in the road

    http://sports.nationalpost.com/2013/...ng-mediocrity/

    Arthur lays out what is at stake for the organization this offseason. A snippet:

    Or — and this currently seems like the most likely scenario, though different people are anticipating different things — Colangelo’s one-year option is picked up, and he does not fire Casey, and the whole can is kicked just a little further down what has become an obscure and lonely stretch of road. It would essentially be an admission that nobody had a better idea, the hell of half-measures. It is probably the worst available option, or very near the top.

    And that’s the question here, really. Why wouldn’t you change? Why wouldn’t you hand the keys to somebody else? Colangelo’s moves have felt increasingly squirrelly, from letting his heretofore secret advanced stats guy show the goods to Grantland.com to the Gay extension talk; he is doubling down, projecting confidence, engaging in PR.

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    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
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    The only reason I could see BC's option being picked-up this offseason is because DC's option has already been picked-up. It wouldn't be a horrible strategy to tie the two together, with making the playoffs the only acceptable outcome; failure means they both go at the end of next season and a proper house-cleaning can be done in Raptorland.

    Waiting a year to hand over the keys to a new GM wouldn't necessarily be a horrible idea. I assume Kleiza will be amnestied and Bargnani will be traded this offseason, at the very least. Fast-forward to next offseason and suddenly a new GM would be in a very favourable position to overhaul the coaching staff and roster, to create a completely fresh start for this franchise:

    - Lowry, Gray and Lucas will be expired contracts (free agents)
    - Johnson, Valanciunas, Ross and Acy (3 on rookie-scale) will be expired contracts with team-options
    - Gay, Fields and Johnson (if team-option is picked-up) will be expiring contracts in the 2014-2015 season
    - only DeRozan and the 3 rookies (team-options) are under contract beyond the 2014-2015 season
    - assuming 2013 1st round pick goes to OKC, new GM will have a 1st round pick & a 2nd round pick in the 2014 draft


    Although I still lean towards replacing both BC & DC now, there is some rationale to giving them one last year together with the current/remade roster. If things don't work out next season, then management, coaching staff and roster can all be blown-up together and a new GM can rebuild this franchise from scratch.

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    This ties in with the original post:

    But nerves are particularly raw at this time of year: Colangelo has an option year remaining on his contract as GM and no commitment as of yet has been made for his return. Casey has one more year on his contract as coach but according to Tom Anselmi, president and chief operating officer of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment, the board of MLSE will decide on Colangelo’s future shortly and the general manager, be it Colangelo or his replacement, will then decide on Casey’s future.

    http://www.torontosun.com/2013/04/17...asey-colangelo
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
    Tim Leiweke

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star ebrian's Avatar
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    Okay. So let's say they're both extended a year, and we play the season and struggle as expected, but by some miracle we eke out the 8th spot despite winning just 36 games, and get swept in the first round. Now what? Give BC and Casey another 1 year extension and promise another playoff appearance with 1 playoff win? And if we achieve that, then what? Another extension and 2 playoff wins?

    At what point do you sit down and evaluate the payroll and ask -- why is this happening? Who's fault is it and why haven't we fired him? Do we have to lose 82 games in a row to be convinced?
    your pal,
    ebrian

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    Raptors Republic Rookie TSN3's Avatar
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    With next year being a do or die season, I think it makes sense to keep Colangelo and Casey around for one more year. The team and fan base are at a point now where anything less than the playoffs next year would be unacceptable, so having two guys who are under the gun could really create the kind of pressure to succeed that this team needs.

    If you were to bring in a new GM and/or coach right now, it just becomes too easy to make excuses for a lack of success next season. I say let's go with the guys who are out of second (and third) chances, and if it doesn't work out, then that's the time to hit the reset button.
    Last edited by TSN3; Thu Apr 18th, 2013 at 05:31 PM.

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    Raptors Republic Starter Dino4life's Avatar
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    I'm probably one of the biggest supporters of the "FIRE BC movement" but its gonna be hard to replace him with someone who wont try to blow up the roster.

    The way i see it, our "attractive assets are limited to Derozan, Valanciunas, Ross, Jonhson, MAYBE lowry, so that's 4 starters and a rookie, that's 5 players under 25 with potential who are suppose to be the core of the team, and a new GM wont have picks to play with this year, so the 2014 pick AKA the pick no lottery team in their right mind will trade, becomes his only bargaining chip to upgrade any position.

    Any move we make involving anyone of them is a gamble or a step back. So now we got to package Ross with Bargs for a SURE thing or no move will be worth making. They may not be all-stars but they all are proven starter material with potential still to improve, so why should we expect to get an all-star in return 1 for 1, we wont, meaning we'll have to downgrade 2 positions to improve 1, kinda like we did for Rudy Gay we lost a solid PG and solid PF to get a more Solid SF = we end up in the same damn place as we were going anyways. People forget after the horrible start, the team started to right the ship on their own, we would have ended in 9 or 10 seed anyways and i'm of the opinion that the last week shouldn't count for too much in assesing progress when the team is playing .500 who are not even trying because they secured their future while we were sucking it up.

    So why can't we fire BC, because we have to be fair, i was against the rudy gay trade and still think it was a bad move, but i could be wrong, and the fact that gay, derozan, and lowry want to play togheter and like Toronto, i think they deserve a chance to prove me wrong with a summer of training for their new situation (ie now derozan and gay cant wait for the promised shooter they need alongside them, one of them is gonna have to become him (ideally both) if they want to keep playing togheter.) A full training camp as a team. The Team at least has earned that much.to show if last week is a fluke or a sign of things to come. a New GM has to break up the core to justify his hiring.

    My solution ? IMO, BC should be extended one year, but with restrictions. NOT EVEN ALLOWED TO DISCUSS MOVING FUTURE DRAFT CONSIDERATIONS. Why ? well if Fire BC is such a hot debate its because things might still go wrong next year. and if they do its hard to do something without picks even if just used as trade bait. The new GM should have picks at his disposition to use. Dwayne Casey has to at least get an offensive coordinator. He tries hard, works hard, but he has flaws and the whole world can see it. lets stop pretending its just part of a process and get someone who can come up with something better than give the ball to my favorite guy come hell or high water in an ISO play so he can jack up a shot contested by 2 maybe 3 players. MLSE already gave him permission to brake the bank, and he chose Rudy Gay, lets not get a 3rd franchise player(4 if you count Derozan in between Bargs and Gay) in 3 years who will be impossible to move, 2 years max on contracts over X (TBD by MLSE)

    1 year no excuse, no forgiveness, no apologies and state it from the begining of the season: This is a contract year for everyone from the president to Quincy Acy. Only the people who have proven something THIS year will be retained.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star slaw's Avatar
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    Quote TSN3 wrote: View Post
    With next year being a do or die season, I think it makes sense to keep Colangelo and Casey around for one more year. The team and fan base are at a point now where anything less than the playoffs next year would be unacceptable, so having two guys who are under the gun could really create the kind of pressure to succeed that this team needs.

    If you were to bring in a new GM and/or coach right now, it just becomes too easy to make excuses for a lack of success next season. I say let's go with the guys who are out of second (and third) chances, and if it doesn't work out, then that's the time to hit the reset button.
    Unless Colangelo signs Rudy Gay to 4-year extension at $19 million a year and gives Lowry $9 or $10 million for 4 years. Then there is no reset button to hit..... That's the risk. As I've said before, it's not just about next year, it's about the 3-4 years they will waste trying to fix next year's mistakes.

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    Raptors Republic Rookie TSN3's Avatar
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    Quote slaw wrote: View Post
    Unless Colangelo signs Rudy Gay to 4-year extension at $19 million a year and gives Lowry $9 or $10 million for 4 years. Then there is no reset button to hit..... That's the risk. As I've said before, it's not just about next year, it's about the 3-4 years they will waste trying to fix next year's mistakes.
    No you're right, it's not just about next year, but at the same time next year is a pivotal one for this team, and now just doesn't seem like the time to be adding the distractions of a new GM or coach trying to put their fingerprints on a partially completed product. I think when you've come this far in the process, you might as well finish the job and see what you have rather than second guessing yourself before it's finished.

    There's always going to be risk involved with contracts that don't end up working out, no matter who the GM is, and BC has no doubt had his share of gambles that haven't paid off, but at the end of the day he's assembled a core of pretty good young players. That being said, if this group regresses next year and doesn't look like a playoff team primed for multiple years of success, then you have every reason to fire Colangelo and go in a different direction with the team.

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    Quote TSN3 wrote: View Post
    No you're right, it's not just about next year, but at the same time next year is a pivotal one for this team, and now just doesn't seem like the time to be adding the distractions of a new GM or coach trying to put their fingerprints on a partially completed product. I think when you've come this far in the process, you might as well finish the job and see what you have rather than second guessing yourself before it's finished.

    There's always going to be risk involved with contracts that don't end up working out, no matter who the GM is, and BC has no doubt had his share of gambles that haven't paid off, but at the end of the day he's assembled a core of pretty good young players. That being said, if this group regresses next year and doesn't look like a playoff team primed for multiple years of success, then you have every reason to fire Colangelo and go in a different direction with the team.
    The problem with waiting is a new GM might come in and tear down the roster now, in a year where having a high draft pick could possibly turn your franchise around and I'm not just talking about AW. If you wait and Raps end up the same place they did this year it might mean the difference between acquiring a good player vs an elite player in next years draft.

    Tear it down. They have had opportunities to build a roster and BC continues to play fantasy GM making moves without a solid plan. You don't go from building and establishing the offence around Andrea Bargnani, to trying to sign Nash, to offering Fields an inflated contract to prevent another team from signing Nash (and don't for a second think that Colangelo didn't let people know that was his thinking, like it was some master plan.lol) To trading for Lowry with your draft pick to drafting Ross then resigning Derozan to an extension, to trading for Rudy Gay mid season!

    These decisions have the awful stench of a man making cowboy decisions with no real plan to support them.

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    I'm in favour of waiting until part-way through next year to make a decision on Colangelo. The Gay trade (and the Lowry one, which didn't really unfold the way it should have until Calderon was traded) came too late in the year, and the sample-size is too small. Two hot streaks and one cold streak. No sense in blowing this team up right now; and no sense in doubling down and extending anyone's contract, be they player, coach, or management. These are the moves that Colangelo should be fired or extended on; he doesn't get to hit the reset button again, either now or midway through next season. If I was ownership, I'd tell BC that he should work on a Bargnani trade, but they need to sign off on that or any other significant trade. Other than that, he can fill out the roster with minor trades and free agent signings, but his next contract is going to hinge on how well this core, as currently assembled, performs out of the gate next year.

    I'd also place the bar for success pretty high. It's not just a 'oh, 5-13 start? well, that's an improvement'. It's not even being in playoff contention midway through the year. It's showing actual, indisputable signs that the core, as assembled, is jumping into the second tier of eastern-conference teams. The NYK, Indiana, Brooklyn, Chicago tier. If they're anywhere from #9 or lower, languishing behind teams like Milwaukee, Boston, Atlanta and Philly by Christmas next year, Colangelo shouldn't make it to new years (teams listed here are just for example, actually 2nd and 3rd tier teams may change with offseason moves). At that point, hand the reins over to Stefanski, direct him to clear cap space, acquire draft picks and prospects, try out guys from the d-league, and make on-court performance his lowest priority until the end of the season (not advocating tanking, just adjusting priorities).

    If, on the other hand, the team is firmly in the playoffs at that point, Colangelo can operate a little more freely through the second half of next year, but with no guarantee of a new contract until after the season is done.

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    Super Moderator ReubenJRD's Avatar
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    Quote ebrian wrote: View Post
    Okay. So let's say they're both extended a year, and we play the season and struggle as expected, but by some miracle we eke out the 8th spot despite winning just 36 games, and get swept in the first round. Now what? Give BC and Casey another 1 year extension and promise another playoff appearance with 1 playoff win? And if we achieve that, then what? Another extension and 2 playoff wins?

    At what point do you sit down and evaluate the payroll and ask -- why is this happening? Who's fault is it and why haven't we fired him? Do we have to lose 82 games in a row to be convinced?
    Looking at the payroll, significant salary will be shed come 2014-2015 season (all assuming guys aren't re-signed and allowed them to walk/traded for expiring contracts and or picks). Meaning, cap space to work with, and the players under contract by that time (Derozan, Ross, Valanciunas) are the main core. Team will rebuild again - and rebuild PROPERLY - and likely once the organization undergoes a rebuild, both Colangelo and Casey are long gone.

    At some point, the organization will have no choice to let go of both, and undergo a proper rebuild. Not re-tooling, and no accelerated rebuild

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    Super Moderator ReubenJRD's Avatar
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    Quote sleepz wrote: View Post
    The problem with waiting is a new GM might come in and tear down the roster now, in a year where having a high draft pick could possibly turn your franchise around and I'm not just talking about AW. If you wait and Raps end up the same place they did this year it might mean the difference between acquiring a good player vs an elite player in next years draft.

    Tear it down. They have had opportunities to build a roster and BC continues to play fantasy GM making moves without a solid plan. You don't go from building and establishing the offence around Andrea Bargnani, to trying to sign Nash, to offering Fields an inflated contract to prevent another team from signing Nash (and don't for a second think that Colangelo didn't let people know that was his thinking, like it was some master plan.lol) To trading for Lowry with your draft pick to drafting Ross then resigning Derozan to an extension, to trading for Rudy Gay mid season!

    These decisions have the awful stench of a man making cowboy decisions with no real plan to support them.
    With the current roster, the potential with the internal growth in Derozan, Acy, Valanciunas, and Ross, plus an elite small wing player in Gay, and elite point guard - when used to maximum potential - Lowry, this team isn't that far off from a playoff appearance. This team lacks any sort of talent, stability, and or consistency in the second unit. Ross is a rookie, Fields has been injured basically all season, Anderson and Lucas have been negatives, and Amir has obviously fluctuated from bench, to start, bench, and back.

    At some point, this team needs to carry a plan. It's quite obvious re-tooling, and constant changes in roster and players is not working, regardless if the Raptors are re-tooling, or rebuilding, it'll be nice to know there will be a core intact for next year (possibly the first time we know we will have AT LEAST more than 8-9 players staying - Lowry, Derozan, Gay, Johnson, Valanciunas, Acy, Ross, Fields, Gray), meaning continuity, which the Raptors have had none of this season.

    This team just needs to fill their significant holes, and those are a back-up point guard, - one preferably that's controlled and is a pass-first i.e Ridnour - a power forward that can spot time at the 5, and give some sort of inside presence both offensively, and defensively, and a wing player that can both/either shoot the ball, or guard. It'd be nice if one, or all are veteran players.

    Bolded: BC may not have had a "plan" per say, but a vision? I mean, he's arguably locked in a player at every position. Lowry = PG. Derozan = SG. Gay = SF. Johnson = PF. Valanciunas = C. Not to mention adding Gay seriously solidifies that small forward position, a position the Raptors have been so hard pressed to find, and same situation goes for the centre position, where Jonas has the potential to be a top 5, top 3 centre.
    Last edited by ReubenJRD; Fri Apr 19th, 2013 at 03:15 AM.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star JawsGT's Avatar
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    Quote slaw wrote: View Post
    Unless Colangelo signs Rudy Gay to 4-year extension at $19 million a year and gives Lowry $9 or $10 million for 4 years. Then there is no reset button to hit..... That's the risk. As I've said before, it's not just about next year, it's about the 3-4 years they will waste trying to fix next year's mistakes.
    Oh, please tell me, someone...anyone, that the board has to approve any potential offer BC can make? If not, then it should be included in any extension given to him, with "restrictions" as Dino4life suggested above. Has to be some way to prevent him from from destroying the future of the team if it fails next year and its clear he's gonna get axed.

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    Look, all i know is that we need a really good backup PG. It just doesn't seem right that we're not arguing about who should start at PG for this team.
    Last edited by Employee; Fri Apr 19th, 2013 at 04:17 PM.
    Eh follow my TWITTER!

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    Raptors Republic All-Star slaw's Avatar
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    Quote JawsGT wrote: View Post
    Oh, please tell me, someone...anyone, that the board has to approve any potential offer BC can make? If not, then it should be included in any extension given to him, with "restrictions" as Dino4life suggested above. Has to be some way to prevent him from from destroying the future of the team if it fails next year and its clear he's gonna get axed.
    Which raises the question: if you don't trust your GM to make good moves, why is he your GM at all?

    Also, do you have any confidence that either Anselmi or the board at MLSE know enough about basketball to stop BC from making ridiculous moves? As much as I blame Colangelo for the current mess, the old ownership group that knew nothing about running about a NBA team deserves an enormous amount of blame. If the current ownership group is anything like the old one, you can't rely on it to save Colangelo from himself....

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Rapstor4Life's Avatar
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    Andrea Bargnani ‏@AndreaBargnani 1h

    it's been a long season, we went trough a lot, but we finished strong. Wanna thank everybody for their support. #raptors #toronto
    .......big foot sighting. Bargs never uses Twitter lol goodbye message?? hopefully.

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    I am probably the only person left on the BC bandwagon... First if we were to fire i would be ok but please tell me who would be a better gm out there?

    We have a very promising future i think anyone is stupid who doesnt see it. The age of this team the chemistry will come some minor pieces will come.

    My only question is, do you see someway with the majority of this roster that we win a championship because if thats not the goal well then i should stop watching sports...

    I see alot of potential but i think we should have been prepared for a rebuild ( like we could be prepared for one after next season.) should have been a year earlier with this promising draft. And yes Gm know years in advance when a good draft will come.

    I have mixed feelings to see if we can make this team go somewhere or if we should blow it up now keep some core pieces for the future but wont help us win game this year to get a good pick. Thats the easy way but never for sure. We're obviously going to ride it out and see where it takes us.. This can be a 50 win team... but i dont see it going into championship contender without alot of luck.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Fully's Avatar
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    If you want MLSE to neuter Colangelo and handcuff him on major decisions then why not just get rid of him altogether? Especially with a price tag of $4 million or whatever exorbitant amount of money that BC continues to collect from them.

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