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Thread: Liston at Sportnet.ca spreading the OPTIMISM!

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Default Liston at Sportnet.ca spreading the OPTIMISM!

    We screened for the best lineups (minimum 250 minutes played together) and were surprised at one of the results. When we sorted by net points per minute, most of the usual suspects rose to the top: Miami (two line-ups), Oklahoma City, New York, San Antonio, Memphis, the Los Angeles Clippers, Indiana and… the Raptors.

    Toronto’s starting lineup in the last part of the year of Lowry/DeRozan/Gay/ Johnson/Valanciunas was the fifth, yes fifth, best lineup in the league. You can find the complete list here at basketball-reference.com.


    This Raptors’ lineup played 343 minutes together, a reasonable sample size. It was not adjusted for strength of opponent. So while their performance may regress somewhat, this is surely and encouraging sign if they are kept together for an entire season.

    One of the thesis for acquiring Gay was to free up DeRozan from double teams (or vice versa). So we reviewed NBAwowy.com and there appears to be some evidence of truth to this: DeRozan had a 44.3 effective field goal percentage (50.1 per cent True Shooting percentage, 1.04 points per possession) when he was not playing with Gay and a 49.6 effective field goal percentage (56.5 per cent TS%, 1.12 points per possession) when playing with Gay. This is a significant difference.
    And then there is Jesus... er, I mean Jonas:



    Valanciunas is similar or better than the average of these all-stars, despite being towards the younger end of the group. While he only played about two thirds of the average minutes as players in this sample, it’s still a fine comparison.


    Valanciunas is at the top of the list for true shooting percentage, effective field goal percentage, offensive rating and win share per 48 minutes. He’s also near the top in block percentage. Given the quality of this list, it bodes well for his future.
    http://www.sportsnet.ca/basketball/n...immer-of-hope/



    Like the Grinch, I think my heart has swelled three sizes today.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
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    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
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    If JV was a religion, I'd convert...

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    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Like the Grinch, I think my heart has swelled three sizes today.
    Hah If you had read this before the "How Optimistic Are You?" thread, would it have improved your score?

    Quote white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    If JV was a religion, I'd convert...
    Jonas Christ? For sure.
    In Masai we Trust.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
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    Quote joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
    Jonas Christ? For sure.
    No, I'd take the chance to resurrect a more polytheistic/pagan style of religion. With JV as the head/father god of a new pantheon, with some of his teammates, who live up to what's needed to help bring the team to the promised land, given the positions of gods alongside him.

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
    Hah If you had read this before the "How Optimistic Are You?" thread, would it have improved your score?



    Jonas Christ? For sure.
    Sadly, no.

    I have no faith in BC. I use to think he had a plan but now he just reminds me of a collared chicken running around with its head cut off.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
    Tim Leiweke

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Axel's Avatar
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    As much as we wont BC gone, these stats show that the Gay trade was definitely an improvement (what, no Jose line-up combo?) for the team and that JV was a great value pick at #5 last year.

    If we can have a starting line-up in the top 10, let alone top 5, and the natural progression of JV along the lines of those players; then we are significantly better than we were 2 years ago. Do we still have issues? Absolutely. We have a flawed roster for max money, but this at least shows that perhaps not all of BC's moves were completely bone-headed.

    Optimism +1
    F*ck Brooklyn

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Mediumcore's Avatar
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    "Toronto’s starting lineup in the last part of the year of Lowry/DeRozan/Gay/ Johnson/Valanciunas was the fifth, yes fifth, best lineup in the league. You can find the complete list here at basketball-reference.com."

    I was excited until I read the bolded part of that statement. If this was a stat pulled during a part of the season which mattered then it would mean something, but the end of the season was garbage minutes....Gay and DeRozan bombing 3's like there's no tomorrow....nobody was playing defense.

    I'm still optimistic about next season though. Other wise there would be no point in following the team.

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    Quote Mediumcore wrote: View Post
    "Toronto’s starting lineup in the last part of the year of Lowry/DeRozan/Gay/ Johnson/Valanciunas was the fifth, yes fifth, best lineup in the league. You can find the complete list here at basketball-reference.com."

    I was excited until I read the bolded part of that statement. If this was a stat pulled during a part of the season which mattered then it would mean something, but the end of the season was garbage minutes....Gay and DeRozan bombing 3's like there's no tomorrow....nobody was playing defense.

    I'm still optimistic about next season though. Other wise there would be no point in following the team.
    Actually, I don't think that the Stats were just of the last part of the year. I think that the writer meant that this was the Raptors starting line-up during the last part of the year (i.e. after acquiring Gay and when JV returned to the starting line-up). The stats are taken over a fairly large sample.

    Sadly, no.

    I have no faith in BC. I use to think he had a plan but now he just reminds me of a collared chicken running around with its head cut off.
    I see. So BC has deliberately put together a starting 5 that is fifth in the NBA in net points/min but you "have no faith" in him. Putting together an effective starting lineup is obviously his first task. So he drafted DD and JV, and traded for Amir, Gay and Lowry. Objectively, that starting 5 has performed well.

    The Raptors need more depth, with a better back-up PG, another effective big, and reliable scoring. I'll bet that BC and Casey are secretly hoping that Bargnani will somehow convert into an effective bench player for instant offense. I have my doubts about that, but if they are only offered crap for Bargnani I think we might see him as the Raptors' 6th man at the beginning of next season.

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote Mediumcore wrote: View Post
    "Toronto’s starting lineup in the last part of the year of Lowry/DeRozan/Gay/ Johnson/Valanciunas was the fifth, yes fifth, best lineup in the league. You can find the complete list here at basketball-reference.com."

    I was excited until I read the bolded part of that statement. If this was a stat pulled during a part of the season which mattered then it would mean something, but the end of the season was garbage minutes....Gay and DeRozan bombing 3's like there's no tomorrow....nobody was playing defense.

    I'm still optimistic about next season though. Other wise there would be no point in following the team.
    I clicked on Liston's link in the article to play with the criteria. I used 42nd-82nd games of season. This lineup played together in 25 games. I don't think the number of games is the issue, it is the minutes (343) or 13.7mpg. Some interesting stuff came up.

    There were 18 lineups that met criteria.

    In terms of minutes played together, Raptors were 12th.

    Net points (per 100 possessions) Raptors were 1st at +14.2. 5th with just 22 more minutes played together was LBJ-Wade-Haslem-Bosh-Chalmers at +10.9.

    Per 48 minutes net point differential the lineup came 3rd at +11.9.

    In straight up net points they were 4th at +85.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
    Tim Leiweke

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Mediumcore's Avatar
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    Well then, that does make things more interesting doesn't it?

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote Mediumcore wrote: View Post
    Well then, that does make things more interesting doesn't it?
    It does.

    If anything Casey should be criticized for not playing them together enough.

    The OKC/IND/MEM lineups played 37/32/31 games together for an average of 17.9/20.2/18.0 minutes per game.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
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    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star slaw's Avatar
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    Quote Mediumcore wrote: View Post
    Well then, that does make things more interesting doesn't it?
    Maybe. I have a bad feeling that next year is going to play out like the 2002-2004 seasons where the whole was not as good as some of the parts and the team got mired in 30s-win seasons.

    I'm a huge fan of the 5-man unit stats but these results seem illusory to me. Hope I'm wrong.

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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    It does.

    If anything Casey should be criticized for not playing them together enough.

    The OKC/IND/MEM lineups played 37/32/31 games together for an average of 17.9/20.2/18.0 minutes per game.

    I think Casey definitely had a strategy of keeping at least one of DeRozan and Gay on the court at any time, which limited the amount of time they actually play together. And there's some logic to that on paper, as either of those guys should be the focal point on offense when the other one isn't on the floor, and so it should be possible to get them matchups against the opposing team's bench players. The big problem is that with a couple shot-happy guys on our bench, our starters wouldn't be that focal point when on the floor alongside backups, and there isn't enough ball movement to get them favorable matchups.

    Perhaps it's the better strategy to join DeRozan and Gay at the hip, and let the second unit wing players try to weather their minutes without those guys. But Fields and Ross don't really have complementary games for playing long stretches together, especially when the offense is as stagnant as our second unit. Put in a pass-first PG in the second unit and it might be a different matter.

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    Quote octothorp wrote: View Post
    I think Casey definitely had a strategy of keeping at least one of DeRozan and Gay on the court at any time, which limited the amount of time they actually play together. And there's some logic to that on paper, as either of those guys should be the focal point on offense when the other one isn't on the floor, and so it should be possible to get them matchups against the opposing team's bench players. The big problem is that with a couple shot-happy guys on our bench, our starters wouldn't be that focal point when on the floor alongside backups, and there isn't enough ball movement to get them favorable matchups.

    Perhaps it's the better strategy to join DeRozan and Gay at the hip, and let the second unit wing players try to weather their minutes without those guys. But Fields and Ross don't really have complementary games for playing long stretches together, especially when the offense is as stagnant as our second unit. Put in a pass-first PG in the second unit and it might be a different matter.
    Barring injury or foul trouble, first 8 mins to start game, first 8 mins to start 2nd half, last 6 mins of the game gives you 20 mins together and is easy enough to do.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
    Tim Leiweke

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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