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Thread: Potential, PER and the Raptors

  1. #1
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    Default Potential, PER and the Raptors

    I found this interesting analysis published after the 2011 season. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/7...n-2011/page/27

    The analyst ranked the top NBA players for the 2011 in terms of PER, who were under the age of 25. The premise was that building a team around the best young players (based on PER) was a good way to develop a franchise.

    For Raptors fans, the results would be encouraging, and puzzling. The current roster has no less than 5 of the top 35 under 25 during 2011:

    34. DeMar DeRozan (age 21): PER 14.52
    30. Andrea Bargnani (age 25): PER 16.50
    28. Kyle Lowry (age 25): PER 16.51
    24. Amir Johnson (age 24): PER 17.67
    22. Rudy Gay (age 24): PER 17.88

    So, what are we to make of this? Is the PER a somewhat unreliable predictor of individual success? Probably.

    Did some of these players fail to develop further? It would seem so.

    Have the Raptors had too young a team to really succeed? I think so.

    Have the Raptors suffered from problems with chemistry? Definitely.

    Do the Raptors have some young talent that might grow "organically" with effective and consistent coaching? We shall see.

  2. #2
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    Quote Bouncepass wrote: View Post
    So, what are we to make of this?
    They were wrong.

    Is the PER a somewhat unreliable predictor of individual success?
    I would argue that it is in no way a predictor of individual success. It measures the now.

    Did some of these players fail to develop further?
    Um, yes.

    Have the Raptors had too young a team to really succeed?
    Lack of talent hurts too.

    Have the Raptors suffered from problems with chemistry?
    See above.

    Do the Raptors have some young talent that might grow "organically" with effective and consistent coaching?
    I hope so because if not, we're screwed.

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