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Thread: Stats: Why does no one look at variance?

  1. #21
    Super Moderator thead's Avatar
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    Variance would likely correlate highly with win shares

  2. #22
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    You need to make sure to weight for minutes somehow, since minutes are one of the biggest factors in per-game stats. Basketball Reference provides per 36 numbers, which would be a simple way to control for that, or you could just work out the average minutes played for each player and then scale their per-game stats to that value. That way you account for outlier games where the guy who normally plays 15-20 mpg ends up playing 40 minutes, but only scores 20% more points than his ppg average.

  3. #23
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    I have incorporated year-to-year variance as a predictor of the future norm of a player. See posts 85 and 92 of the link below to see why I argued Nicolas Batum was a better target than Wilson Chandler in my opinion.

    http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/forum...ighlight=Batum

    I am sure many teams are looking at variance in much more details and have much more sophisticated predictive models. It's not something I expect to see published until teams acknowledge their base model no longer gives them an advantage over the competition.

  4. #24
    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    I dislike any analysis based on averages alone, I find median (the middle number) and mode (the number that most often) to give you a far superior understanding of the data, as it gives you some insight into outliers.

    For instance player A averages 22 pts /game but has a median of 10 points per game and a mode of 28 points per game
    player B also averages 22pts/game but has a median of 20 points/game and a mode of 21 pts per game.

    It's easy to see that player B is more consistent.

    Any argument that averages work out over times also works out when including median and mode. I would love to see all stats broken down into average/median/mode for every category, and would tell you more about a player than just average alone.
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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