View Poll Results: What word best describes your preference moving forward for the Raptors?

Voters
38. You may not vote on this poll
  • Tanker

    12 31.58%
  • Tweaker

    26 68.42%
Page 1 of 42 1 2 3 11 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 932

Thread: Rebuild or Re-tool? (thread merge in post #358)

Hybrid View

  1. #1
    Raptors Republic Starter
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    258
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default Rebuild or Re-tool? (thread merge in post #358)

    (Disclaimer: This is not an Andrew Wiggans thread)

    What do you say we become the worst team in the NBA? BCs desperation has left us in NBA no-mans land.:

    • Not good enough to win a playoff series
    • Unlikely to even make the playoffs
    • Still too good to not get an impactful draft pick
    • Too tied up in terms of cap space to sign a star player
    • Not enough players with trade via to improve the team via trade

    We are headed for AT LEAST 3 more years of irrelevancy as currently constructed under this strategy. This thread is about limiting our continued irrelevancy to only 3 years by aggressively tanking and trading away all current assets for terrible players/contracts and draft picks.

    Move 1:
    Trade Rudy and Landry to the Nets for Gerald Wallace, Chris Humphries and a 1st round pick in 2014
    http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ct86vho

    Given that money is no object for the Nets, perhaps they could even pony up some cash for a potential Wallace buy out in 2015. Rudy and Landry are both overpaid, but the Nets do this to get out of the Wallace deal and to add another “star”. Derron/JJ/Rudy/Evans/Brook. That’s a quasi-contender that King can sell to the Russian as a real contender.

    Move 2
    Trade Amir to Phoenix for Beasley and a (protected) first round pick
    http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=chxpgj6

    Not sure we can land their top 5 pick this year for taking Beez off their hands and giving them Amir. But if we protect it like: Top 10 (2013), Top 5 (2014), Top 5 (2015), Top 3 (2016), unprotected (2017), they might bite on the chance to ditch Beez and we’d still get a lottery pick out of it.

    Move 3
    Trade Lowry and Demar to Detroit for Jerebko, Stuckey and their (top 5 protected) 2013 first rounder
    (Note: This trade fails straight-up in the trade machine, but after the first 2 moves, it works)
    http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=btjas5p

    Detroit gives up a mid-lotto pick to get out of 2 bad contracts, get a good one back (Kyle) and add a pretty good young piece on the wing (Demar). Kyle and Demar are probably both better than what they’d get at 7 this draft, and it accelerates their rebuild.

    Then we bring back Grey, Anderson and Lucas. Your 2013-2014 Toronto Raptors (!!!!):

    1) Stuckey, Lucas
    2) Ross, Anderson
    3) Wallace, Beasley, Jerebko
    4) Bargnani, Humphies, Acy
    5) Valanciunas, Grey

    Plus a top 10 pick in 2013 from the Pistons (say, MCW). We could provide heavy minutes to a young lineup of MCW/Ross/Jerebko/Acy/Val. Is that bad enough to virtually guarantee a top 3 pick in 2014? I say yes. We might even get a top 3 pick in 2015 with this core. Plus, we get a team with 2 guys named Jonas!

    Then Stuckey and Hump are off the books, and Beez/Wallace/Bargs can be bought out or paid to stay home. That leaves us going into 2016 with:

    • Ross
    • Val
    • Acy
    • Detroit’s 2013 (#7)
    • Brooklyn’s late 2014 first rounder
    • Phoenix’s 2014, 2015 2016 pick (likely #6-10)
    • Our top 3 2014 pick
    • Our top 3 2015 pick
    • 2 high second round picks of our own

    We’d have cap space to fill out the roster with veteran leaders as needed, plus potentially get a star to fill whichever remaining hole is biggest.

    We would need a care taker coach for the next few years before bringing in somebody to guide the team forward – similar to the Carlisimo/Brooks handoff in Seattle/OKC (although they may have misfired with Brooks a little). PJ is available.

    Now that I’ve gone through all this, my questions for y’all are:
    1. Would you be on board with another 3-5 year rebuild if we really, truly committed to bottoming out?
    2. Do you think a massive rebuild like this is even necessary, or do you want to roll with the core as constructed?
    3. What do you think the likelihood of any/all of these moves from the other team’s perspective? Could this actually be pulled off?
    4. Do you have your own ideas of how to tank & rebuild?
    5. Do you think we could embark on a strategy like this without mortally wounding the development of any young guys (Ross/Val/etc)?
    Last edited by NoBan; Mon May 13th, 2013 at 03:24 PM.

  2. #2
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    20,639
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Blowing it up does not necessarily mean the Raps become the worst team in the league. ATL and DEN are two teams who traded their best players and did not miss a beat.

    The Raptors need pieces that fit together and fit the direction the franchise has.

    At this point in time the pieces don't fit because all the pieces assembled were assembled to fit Bargnani and the franchise has no direction due to Colangelo's undiagnosed ADD (joke on my part but seriously to say he has been all over the place the last 5 years is no exaggeration).

    If the Raptors can send out pieces that don't fit for pieces that do while acquiring assets (prospects and picks) who is to say they drop off? I mean the reality is they won 34 games. The worst is as close as average.
    Last edited by mcHAPPY; Mon May 13th, 2013 at 03:49 PM.
    "You don’t know the Bruno Caboclo......"
    Bruno Caboclo

  3. #3
    Raptors Republic Starter
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    258
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    ATL and DEN are two teams who traded their best players and did not miss a beat.
    Not sure our best players are likely to bring back a haul Carmelo did. We don't have the Smiff/Horford all star combo to fall back on.

    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    At this point in time the pieces don't fit because all the pieces assembled were assembled to fit Bargnani
    Agree, but I don't see how we fix this without nuking everything. Ideas?

    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    If the Raptors can send out pieces that don't fit for pieces that do while acquiring assets (prospects and picks) who is to say they drop off? I mean the reality is they won 34 games. The worst is as close as average.
    Not that it's a sure thing, but the Hollinger calculation on the overall haul is -18 wins. Thats good for the basement. Especially if we tank further by resting guys that are performing well and a tad banged up.

    Edit: I misinterpreted the last point I quoted there. But still, is "average" the goal?
    Last edited by NoBan; Mon May 13th, 2013 at 03:58 PM.

  4. #4
    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Toronto
    Posts
    8,592
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    So this is a TANK thread? Pass.
    "I just dunked. Got a little dunk. That’s nice." Terrence Ross

  5. #5
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    20,639
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    The issue to blow it up is not straightforward.

    Blowing it up would be an option before the trade deadline if things go really bad but at that point you might not be getting anything near fair value on your assets and you are likely in the position you are because said assets are not performing up to potential.

    In thinking about the current state of the Raptors today, I've been all over the map in my head. I'd love to blow it up on one hand and move forward with JV as the major building block. On the other hand a little tinkering, better coaching, and luck might yield a pretty competitive team. Staying status quo is not an option in my opinion - playing for MAYBE the 8th seed is a loser mentality which has infiltrated and permeated all aspects of the Raptor fan base but more importantly MLSE offices. When we get promotional videos on Raptors.com talking about just making the playoffs as success, my, how far we have fallen. I know you have to start somewhere but do you honestly see this team doing anything more than a first round exit without a lot of highly unlikely things happening? (I'll get to that below).



    In terms of tinkering, here is the current starting lineup:

    PG: Lowry
    SG:
    SF: Gay
    PF:
    C: JV

    That is how I feel about the starting lineup. If you can add a stretch 4 (you know, like what Bargnani is theoretically suppose to be) put DeRozan in the starting 2 guard (Christ it isn't hard to tell this team is built around #tradeBargnani). Unfortunately that does not look likely so you need a shooter/floor spacer at the 2 guard. I know many feel the blanks above should be Amir and DD but neither have shown an ability to shoot the 3 with any measure of consistency.

    Off the bench the Raptors are looking good assuming Amir is not your starting PF. The wings are Fields and Ross. Your primary back up big is Amir who can play both PF/C and plays with energy/hustle. Your secondary bigs are situational with Gray and Acy. PG is an issue but then you have an exception to address it.

    The problem really is the starting SG and PF, in my opinion. It needs to be addressed but how do you address it when your trade chips are one of DeRozan/Ross and Bargnani?


    Coaching is a major issue. The fact the Raptors are looking to bring in a young assistant coach to 'relate' to players is a concern - a big concern. Casey should coach to his strengths and hand the offensive reigns over to someone else. 22ft jump shot after jump shot is bush league. I've seen a lot of references to square pegs and round holes in the media of late - not hard to tell they hang out around here, eh? - and it is true. It appears to me that Casey has been inflexible in working with the talent in Toronto. It is on him to maximize his talent. ISO and 22ft jump shots are not cutting it nor is bottom third defense.


    The luck the Raptors need to be anything more than an 8th seed is guys overachieving, a major coup in a trade, and finding absolute bargains on minimum contracts (Jimmy Butler/productive young players on rookie deals, Danny Green type contracts, Chandler Parsons type contracts - imagine a healthy Fields with a 3 point shot making $2M - that is what I refer to). With so much money tied up in inefficient players (Gay, DeRozan, Bargnani), the Raptors need a real homerun or two from the bargain bin.




    As I said in another post/thread, the Raptors remain where they have been for years: hoping guys become what they are not (credit to the person who posted Bautista comments earlier). This is what Raptor fans who are hoping for success with the current core are banking on or hoping for:

    - DD and Gay co-exist with both developing a consistent 3 point shot,
    - Fields regains his 3pt stroke,
    - Lowry returns to Houston form,
    - JV is on the track to all star status,
    - Bargnani finally puts it all together as he showed possible for about 18 games in 2011-12,
    - Acy becomes a solid rotational player,
    - veteran backup PG obtained,
    - Ross becomes the 3 and D 6th man of the year candidate,
    - Casey is able to return to his defensive, grind it out ways while implementing an offensive that does not rely predominantly on set shots.



    To break it down in its simplest terms, not blowing it up involves:

    - Turn one of DeRozan/Ross and Bargnani in to a starting PF
    - Use MLE to get a backup PG
    - Find a bargain on a minimum contract who can contribute
    - Fields getting his shot back
    - Casey getting back to what he does best (defense) and changing the offense to incorporate more ball/player movement.
    "You don’t know the Bruno Caboclo......"
    Bruno Caboclo

  6. #6
    Raptors Republic Superstar ReubenJRD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Vancouver, BC.
    Posts
    4,071
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    The issue to blow it up is not straightforward.

    Blowing it up would be an option before the trade deadline if things go really bad but at that point you might not be getting anything near fair value on your assets and you are likely in the position you are because said assets are not performing up to potential.

    In thinking about the current state of the Raptors today, I've been all over the map in my head. I'd love to blow it up on one hand and move forward with JV as the major building block. On the other hand a little tinkering, better coaching, and luck might yield a pretty competitive team. Staying status quo is not an option in my opinion - playing for MAYBE the 8th seed is a loser mentality which has infiltrated and permeated all aspects of the Raptor fan base but more importantly MLSE offices. When we get promotional videos on Raptors.com talking about just making the playoffs as success, my, how far we have fallen. I know you have to start somewhere but do you honestly see this team doing anything more than a first round exit without a lot of highly unlikely things happening? (I'll get to that below).



    In terms of tinkering, here is the current starting lineup:

    PG: Lowry
    SG:
    SF: Gay
    PF:
    C: JV

    That is how I feel about the starting lineup. If you can add a stretch 4 (you know, like what Bargnani is theoretically suppose to be) put DeRozan in the starting 2 guard (Christ it isn't hard to tell this team is built around #tradeBargnani). Unfortunately that does not look likely so you need a shooter/floor spacer at the 2 guard. I know many feel the blanks above should be Amir and DD but neither have shown an ability to shoot the 3 with any measure of consistency.

    Off the bench the Raptors are looking good assuming Amir is not your starting PF. The wings are Fields and Ross. Your primary back up big is Amir who can play both PF/C and plays with energy/hustle. Your secondary bigs are situational with Gray and Acy. PG is an issue but then you have an exception to address it.

    The problem really is the starting SG and PF, in my opinion. It needs to be addressed but how do you address it when your trade chips are one of DeRozan/Ross and Bargnani?


    Coaching is a major issue. The fact the Raptors are looking to bring in a young assistant coach to 'relate' to players is a concern - a big concern. Casey should coach to his strengths and hand the offensive reigns over to someone else. 22ft jump shot after jump shot is bush league. I've seen a lot of references to square pegs and round holes in the media of late - not hard to tell they hang out around here, eh? - and it is true. It appears to me that Casey has been inflexible in working with the talent in Toronto. It is on him to maximize his talent. ISO and 22ft jump shots are not cutting it nor is bottom third defense.


    The luck the Raptors need to be anything more than an 8th seed is guys overachieving, a major coup in a trade, and finding absolute bargains on minimum contracts (Jimmy Butler/productive young players on rookie deals, Danny Green type contracts, Chandler Parsons type contracts - imagine a healthy Fields with a 3 point shot making $2M - that is what I refer to). With so much money tied up in inefficient players (Gay, DeRozan, Bargnani), the Raptors need a real homerun or two from the bargain bin.




    As I said in another post/thread, the Raptors remain where they have been for years: hoping guys become what they are not (credit to the person who posted Bautista comments earlier). This is what Raptor fans who are hoping for success with the current core are banking on or hoping for:

    - DD and Gay co-exist with both developing a consistent 3 point shot,
    - Fields regains his 3pt stroke,
    - Lowry returns to Houston form,
    - JV is on the track to all star status,
    - Bargnani finally puts it all together as he showed possible for about 18 games in 2011-12,
    - Acy becomes a solid rotational player,
    - veteran backup PG obtained,
    - Ross becomes the 3 and D 6th man of the year candidate,
    - Casey is able to return to his defensive, grind it out ways while implementing an offensive that does not rely predominantly on set shots.



    To break it down in its simplest terms, not blowing it up involves:

    - Turn one of DeRozan/Ross and Bargnani in to a starting PF
    - Use MLE to get a backup PG
    - Find a bargain on a minimum contract who can contribute
    - Fields getting his shot back
    - Casey getting back to what he does best (defense) and changing the offense to incorporate more ball/player movement.
    Now, THIS, is what I would like to see.

    EDIT: As long as Amir, Lowry, Gay, Fields, JV, and Acy stay.

  7. #7
    Raptors Republic Superstar Rapstor4Life's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    3,063
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote ReubenJRD wrote: View Post
    Now, THIS, is what I would like to see.

    EDIT: As long as Amir, Lowry, Gay, Fields, JV, and Acy stay.
    Fields?

  8. #8
    Raptors Republic Veteran NoPropsneeded's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    5,864
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Rapstor4Life wrote: View Post
    Fields?
    He's going to be a key part in the rotation next season. Like it or not

  9. #9
    Raptors Republic Starter
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    258
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Allow me to play devil’s advocate...

    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Blowing it up would be an option before the trade deadline if things go really bad but at that point you might not be getting anything near fair value on your assets and you are likely in the position you are because said assets are not performing up to potential.
    Waiting until the deadline is a mistake if we are really going to do pursue a “blow it up” strategy. We’re not going to win a title (like it says in your sig) with this group. Waiting for months and letting this draft go buy only delays the inevitable.


    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    It needs to be addressed but how do you address it when your trade chips are one of DeRozan/Ross and Bargnani?
    I don’t think you can address it with those assets. We’re dancing around the obvious here: We don’t have what it take to dig out of the “no mans land” that BC mired us in.

    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Casey should coach to his strengths and hand the offensive reigns over to someone else.
    The HC needs the final say. The lead assistant you’re referring to needs to be in place from day 1 or else it will destroy the credibility of the HC within the room. If we’re handing the offense completely over to somebody else, we need to fire the coach. Another restart at HC lends itself more to a “blow it up” strategy than a “tinkering” strategy.

    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    22ft jump shot after jump shot is bush league.... It appears to me that Casey has been inflexible in working with the talent in Toronto. It is on him to maximize his talent. ISO and 22ft jump shots are not cutting it nor is bottom third defence.
    Those jumpers are the result of him being flexible to the strengths of the team. Long jumpers are a major part of both Demar and Rudy’s game. That was the problem with the acquisition. I actually think that Demar’s long jumper is encouraging, because its a really nice stroke and he’s got potential to extend that range into 3 pt territory. Getting him confident with the outside shot is a positive, imo. I think Casey’s shown more willingness to adapt than he gets credit for (finally phasing Bargs out, working with Kyle even though he clearly preferred Jose, letting Rudy shoot from distance because the analytics guys say it’s a good strategy even though it doesn’t fit Casey’s approach, letting Val work through his mistakes because he brings more to the table than he was taking off, sitting down the useless Landry Fields even though the front office invested heavily in him, sliding Rudy or AA down to the 4 and going small).

    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    The luck the Raptors need to be anything more than an 8th seed is guys overachieving, a major coup in a trade, and finding absolute bargains on minimum contracts (Jimmy Butler/productive young players on rookie deals, Danny Green type contracts, Chandler Parsons type contracts - imagine a healthy Fields with a 3 point shot making $2M - that is what I refer to). With so much money tied up in inefficient players (Gay, DeRozan, Bargnani), the Raptors need a real homerun or two from the bargain bin.
    That’s not only unrealistic, it’s next to impossible.

    Guys overachieving? We’ve been hoping for that year after year. And even when they do, other guys underachieve and we wind up still stuck in no-mans-land.

    Major coup in a trade? I’m sure every single team is hoping for this. Is there anything to suggest this is the slightest bit lucky? NBA teams aren’t going to hand assets to us. Even teams with poor decision making processes (Kings, Nets) aren’t going to hand us something useful just because. Not to get too far off topic, but we all know how this strategy worked out for the Jays. “Major coup in a trade” is off the table.

    Bargains on minimum contracts? The way to make this happen is to nail a second round pick (or very late first). Not only has that never happened for this organization, we don’t even have a second round pick to use. This option is off the table as well.

    Somebody else mentioned that we need to find a “diamond in the rough.” Well, thats kinda what AA was if you look at his paycheque vs contribution. Finding another AA, AP or Garbo is not the ticket to a contender (again, like it says in your sig).

    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    - DD and Gay co-exist with both developing a consistent 3 point shot,
    - Fields regains his 3pt stroke,
    - Lowry returns to Houston form,
    - JV is on the track to all star status,
    - Bargnani finally puts it all together as he showed possible for about 18 games in 2011-12,
    - Acy becomes a solid rotational player,
    - veteran backup PG obtained,
    - Ross becomes the 3 and D 6th man of the year candidate,
    - Casey is able to return to his defensive, grind it out ways while implementing an offensive that does not rely predominantly on set shots.
    This sounds GREAT. But every team in every sport can do this with their roster. History and logic tell us that our team is not going to be it’s best case scenario. To borrow a quote from the immortal Denny Green, we are who we thought we were.

    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    - Turn one of DeRozan/Ross and Bargnani in to a starting PF
    We could use one of these assets to ditch Bargs’ contract, but to expect a valuable piece back too? That’s unrealistic. We could trade DD or Ross straight up for a nice piece. Throwing Bargs in eliminates the potential to land a real contributor.

    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    - Use MLE to get a backup PG
    Definitely plausible; not getting us beyond the 7-8 range, best case scenario.

    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    - Find a bargain on a minimum contract who can contribute
    Not happening without a second rounder

    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    - Fields getting his shot back
    - Casey getting back to what he does best (defense) and changing the offense to incorporate more ball/player movement.
    Not impossible and would be very nice to see. But these kinda fall into the “we are who we thought we were” category.

    Similar to everyone else, I too liked your post. But I don’t think you can legitimately believe that we’re likely to make a contender out of the current core. If you, me, Lieweke, whomever are truly focused on brining the Raps to the finals, the blow it up option is the most realistic path to get there.

  10. #10
    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    4,608
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote NoBan wrote: View Post
    Similar to everyone else, I too liked your post. But I don’t think you can legitimately believe that we’re likely to make a contender out of the current core. If you, me, Lieweke, whomever are truly focused on brining the Raps to the finals, the blow it up option is the most realistic path to get there.
    I would argue that history is against your claim. If you look back at the NBA finals over the past 13 years (2000-2012), building through the draft has only been successful when the team lucked into an absolute superstar, when reaching the finals is the goal.

    2012 - Miami (superteam) VS OKC (Durant + 2 other top-4 picks)
    2011 - Dallas (Dirk & vets) VS Miami (superteam)
    2010 - Lakers (superteam) VS Boston (superteam)
    2009 - Lakers (superteam) VS Orlando (Howard)
    2008 - Boston (superteam) VS Lakers (superteam)
    2007 - Spurs (Duncan & 2 great picks) VS Cleveland (LBJ)
    2006 - Miami (superteam) VS Dallas (Dirk)
    2005 - Spurs (Duncan & 2 great picks) VS Detroit (solid team, not all via draft)
    2004 - Detroit (solid team, not all via draft) VS Lakers (superteam)
    2003 - Spurs (Duncan & 2 great picks) VS Nets (solid team, not all via draft)
    2002 - Lakers (superteam) VS Nets (solid team, not all via draft)
    2001 - Lakers (superteam) VS Philly (Iverson)
    2000 - Lakers (superteam) VS Indi (Miller)

    Unless you luck into a superstar, building through the draft alone is hardly a proven recipe for sustainable, championship-caliber success. If you look at the 65 top-5 picks over the past 13 years, I would be willing to bet that there are far more "busts" than there are superstars, which is why I don't fully understand the desire to put all your faith/hope in a few draft picks.

    First, there's no guarantee the Raptors will even wind up with top-5 picks. Second, there's no guarantee that the Raptors' picks (even if in top-5) will wind up being great players, let alone superstars to build a contending team around. Third, there's not even a guarantee that the new core that's built through the next few drafts will be any better than the current core that has been built through multiple draft lotteries (Bargnani-06, DeRozan-09, Gay via Davis-10, Valanciunas-11, Ross-12).
    Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Tue May 14th, 2013 at 12:28 PM.

  11. #11
    Raptors Republic Starter
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    258
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    I would argue that history is against your claim. If you look back at the NBA finals over the past 13 years (2000-2012), building through the draft has only been successful when the team lucked into an absolute superstar, when reaching the finals is the goal.

    2012 - Miami (superteam) VS OKC (Durant + 2 other top-4 picks)
    2011 - Dallas (Dirk & vets) VS Miami (superteam)
    2010 - Lakers (superteam) VS Boston (superteam)
    2009 - Lakers (superteam) VS Orlando (Howard)
    2008 - Boston (superteam) VS Lakers (superteam)
    2007 - Spurs (Duncan & 2 great picks) VS Cleveland (LBJ)
    2006 - Miami (superteam) VS Dallas (Dirk)
    2005 - Spurs (Duncan & 2 great picks) VS Detroit (solid team, not all via draft)
    2004 - Detroit (solid team, not all via draft) VS Lakers (superteam)
    2003 - Spurs (Duncan & 2 great picks) VS Nets (solid team, not all via draft)
    2002 - Lakers (superteam) VS Nets (solid team, not all via draft)
    2001 - Lakers (superteam) VS Philly (Iverson)
    2000 - Lakers (superteam) VS Indi (Miller)
    OKC, Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, Dallas, and even San Antonio got the key pieces to their championship contenders by being terrible prior to their runs. Once they landed their stars (Durant, Lebron, Garnett, Howard, Dirk, Duncan), they were able to assemble contenders. Only Dirk in Dallas was not acquired with a top 5 pick, 4 of those guys were 1st overall picks. It seems like you've made my point for me here.

    The superteam option is not on the table for us. We're not signing Shaq or LBJ away from a rival.

    The Nets/Pistons model is not totally off the table. But we don't have the pieces to mirror either team's strategy. We have zero all stars, they had 3 or 4. We are A LOT closer to getting a great lotto pick than making the finals with the "solid team, not all via draft" model.

    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    Unless you luck into a superstar, building through the draft alone is hardly a proven recipe for sustainable, championship-caliber success. If you look at the 65 top-5 picks over the past 13 years, I would be willing to bet that there are far more "busts" than there are superstars, which is why I don't fully understand the desire to put all your faith/hope in a few draft picks.
    The desire to rebuild through a bottoming out/drafting strategy is to avoid a repeat of the last 5 seasons. Nobody in Cleveland or Orlando's management team wanted to be a bottom feeder, but they knew they had to do it to get back to relevancy. Now the Cavs have Kyrie and the Magic are going to get a stud, too. That should be us. Instead we're paying Rudy Gay 350% of the GDP of Prince Edward Island.

    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    First, there's no guarantee the Raptors will even wind up with top-5 picks. Second, there's no guarantee that the Rators' picks (even if in top-5) will wind up being great players, let alone superstars to build a contending team around
    But what is guaranteed is continued futility with the current core & strategy. Why not choose the option more likely to deliver something close to one of the superstars that appears on your list on contenders?

  12. #12
    Raptors Republic Starter
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    351
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    Unless you luck into a superstar, building through the draft alone is hardly a proven recipe for sustainable, championship-caliber success. If you look at the 65 top-5 picks over the past 13 years, I would be willing to bet that there are far more "busts" than there are superstars, which is why I don't fully understand the desire to put all your faith/hope in a few draft picks.

    First, there's no guarantee the Raptors will even wind up with top-5 picks. Second, there's no guarantee that the Raptors' picks (even if in top-5) will wind up being great players, let alone superstars to build a contending team around. Third, there's not even a guarantee that the new core that's built through the next few drafts will be any better than the current core that has been built through multiple draft lotteries (Bargnani-06, DeRozan-09, Gay via Davis-10, Valanciunas-11, Ross-12).
    I agree. Don't forget that there are plenty of other teams that are tanking, or will be tanking for the next few years. How can we be sure that the Raptors tanking would yield better results than CLE, ORL, NO, DET, etc, etc.

    I think a better approach is to have a great coach with a good and consistent system, and build a team around that.

  13. #13
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    20,639
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote NoBan wrote: View Post
    Allow me to play devil’s advocate...

    Waiting until the deadline is a mistake if we are really going to do pursue a “blow it up” strategy. We’re not going to win a title (like it says in your sig) with this group. Waiting for months and letting this draft go buy only delays the inevitable.



    I don’t think you can address it with those assets. We’re dancing around the obvious here: We don’t have what it take to dig out of the “no mans land” that BC mired us in.


    The HC needs the final say. The lead assistant you’re referring to needs to be in place from day 1 or else it will destroy the credibility of the HC within the room. If we’re handing the offense completely over to somebody else, we need to fire the coach. Another restart at HC lends itself more to a “blow it up” strategy than a “tinkering” strategy.


    Those jumpers are the result of him being flexible to the strengths of the team. Long jumpers are a major part of both Demar and Rudy’s game. That was the problem with the acquisition. I actually think that Demar’s long jumper is encouraging, because its a really nice stroke and he’s got potential to extend that range into 3 pt territory. Getting him confident with the outside shot is a positive, imo. I think Casey’s shown more willingness to adapt than he gets credit for (finally phasing Bargs out, working with Kyle even though he clearly preferred Jose, letting Rudy shoot from distance because the analytics guys say it’s a good strategy even though it doesn’t fit Casey’s approach, letting Val work through his mistakes because he brings more to the table than he was taking off, sitting down the useless Landry Fields even though the front office invested heavily in him, sliding Rudy or AA down to the 4 and going small).


    That’s not only unrealistic, it’s next to impossible.

    Guys overachieving? We’ve been hoping for that year after year. And even when they do, other guys underachieve and we wind up still stuck in no-mans-land.

    Major coup in a trade? I’m sure every single team is hoping for this. Is there anything to suggest this is the slightest bit lucky? NBA teams aren’t going to hand assets to us. Even teams with poor decision making processes (Kings, Nets) aren’t going to hand us something useful just because. Not to get too far off topic, but we all know how this strategy worked out for the Jays. “Major coup in a trade” is off the table.

    Bargains on minimum contracts? The way to make this happen is to nail a second round pick (or very late first). Not only has that never happened for this organization, we don’t even have a second round pick to use. This option is off the table as well.

    Somebody else mentioned that we need to find a “diamond in the rough.” Well, thats kinda what AA was if you look at his paycheque vs contribution. Finding another AA, AP or Garbo is not the ticket to a contender (again, like it says in your sig).


    This sounds GREAT. But every team in every sport can do this with their roster. History and logic tell us that our team is not going to be it’s best case scenario. To borrow a quote from the immortal Denny Green, we are who we thought we were.


    We could use one of these assets to ditch Bargs’ contract, but to expect a valuable piece back too? That’s unrealistic. We could trade DD or Ross straight up for a nice piece. Throwing Bargs in eliminates the potential to land a real contributor.


    Definitely plausible; not getting us beyond the 7-8 range, best case scenario.


    Not happening without a second rounder


    Not impossible and would be very nice to see. But these kinda fall into the “we are who we thought we were” category.

    Similar to everyone else, I too liked your post. But I don’t think you can legitimately believe that we’re likely to make a contender out of the current core. If you, me, Lieweke, whomever are truly focused on brining the Raps to the finals, the blow it up option is the most realistic path to get there.
    You have cherry picked my post with the selective quotations. The context of my quotes are lost and you've taken a discussion and turned it in to an argument. Perfect example is the list of what would have to go perfectly for the Raptors to compete - which I made clear.

    I don't think this is as black and white as you make it out to be. With new leadership I would not be opposed to tearing it down but there is more than one option. However, once you get in the playoffs with a good team (not an 8th seed), anything can happen. I think the Raptors can be a good team with a little tinkering - not the current core.
    "You don’t know the Bruno Caboclo......"
    Bruno Caboclo

  14. #14
    Raptors Republic All-Star Fully's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    1,219
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    . However, once you get in the playoffs with a good team (not an 8th seed), anything can happen. I think the Raptors can be a good team with a little tinkering - not the current core.
    Is this actually true? It's accurate in the other three major sports but how many championships or (even finals appearances) have been captured in the last 25 years by teams coming from the bottom half of the playoff seedings?

    I haven't looked at it closely but I bet you can count on one hand the number of times a seed higher than 4 made it to the Finals in the last 25 years, from either Conference.

    Edit: I just looked it up. In the past 25 years of playoff basketball in the NBA, only two teams have made the Finals with a seed higher than 4. The Rockets won it as a sixth seed in 1995 and the Knicks made it to the Finals during the lockout shortened season as an 8th seed. Even if you widen the criteria to include #4 seeds who make it all the way to the finals, the list only grows by a couple more teams.
    Last edited by Fully; Tue May 14th, 2013 at 01:28 PM.

  15. #15
    Raptors Republic Starter
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    258
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    You have cherry picked my post with the selective quotations. The context of my quotes are lost and you've taken a discussion and turned it in to an argument. Perfect example is the list of what would have to go perfectly for the Raptors to compete - which I made clear.

    I don't think this is as black and white as you make it out to be. With new leadership I would not be opposed to tearing it down but there is more than one option. However, once you get in the playoffs with a good team (not an 8th seed), anything can happen. I think the Raptors can be a good team with a little tinkering - not the current core.
    Whoa, big fella. I didnt want to copy paste everything. The context of your stuff exists only a single mouse scroll above.

    I understand you realized how unlikely your best case scenario was. I felt it necessary to reiterate it as nearly impossible and virtually irrelevant to our discussion of the future of the franchise.

    My points about Casey & the unlikihood of a Demar/Andrea combo fetching a contributor stand. As does my point about there being no benefit in waitng til the deadline to enact a true rebuilding strategy. As does my point that we are extremely unlikely to hit a homerun with a bargain contract without a second round pick. None of those points are invalidated by any "cherrypicking".

    There's been plenty of black/white/grey talk here. My question is, why do you want to live in the grey? The grey is where we've been under Colangelo and Babcock before him. The grey got us into our current situation, which you've correctly identified as unacceptable.

  16. #16
    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    4,608
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote NoBan wrote: View Post
    There's been plenty of black/white/grey talk here. My question is, why do you want to live in the grey? The grey is where we've been under Colangelo and Babcock before him. The grey got us into our current situation, which you've correctly identified as unacceptable.
    I don't see many people choosing to continue 'as is', without at least some retooling. You're the one who seems to keep arguing that the only options are to 'blow it up' or 'stay as is'. If you look at my post (#20), I'm hardly arguing to keep the status quo, I just don't think there's reason to go to the extreme to 'blow it up' this offseason.

  17. #17
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    20,639
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote NoBan wrote: View Post
    Whoa, big fella. I didnt want to copy paste everything. The context of your stuff exists only a single mouse scroll above.

    I understand you realized how unlikely your best case scenario was. I felt it necessary to reiterate it as nearly impossible and virtually irrelevant to our discussion of the future of the franchise.

    My points about Casey & the unlikihood of a Demar/Andrea combo fetching a contributor stand. As does my point about there being no benefit in waitng til the deadline to enact a true rebuilding strategy. As does my point that we are extremely unlikely to hit a homerun with a bargain contract without a second round pick. None of those points are invalidated by any "cherrypicking".

    There's been plenty of black/white/grey talk here. My question is, why do you want to live in the grey? The grey is where we've been under Colangelo and Babcock before him. The grey got us into our current situation, which you've correctly identified as unacceptable.
    Firing Colangelo, trading one of DD/Ross and Bargnani, amnestying Kleiza is not living in the grey.

    That is a full on shift and change.

    You continue to write from the perspective the only two options are to blow it up or keep the current team - at least that is my interpretation of your stance.

    I disagree with that. This team has been constructed around Bargnani. So first things first is to remove Bargnani which in and of itself is huge. But just because it is constructed around Bargnani doesn't mean there are not some good pieces there.

    If the Raptors can obtain a traditional PF then insert Ross as the 5th option at SG (or anyone who can shoot the three - sidenote: Ross actually shot pretty well from my recollection on catch and shoot. His running and curling off screens for 3 point shots was inconsistent but that again comes back to Casey's offense, I digress).

    If the Raptors are able to obtain another stretch 4 (you know who can actually make the 3 and not just look pretty doing it) then insert Fields as the utility/glue guy he showed he can be this season; if his 3pt stroke returns that is a bonus.

    We will see how it all plays out but my point is blowing it up and staying the course are not the only two options.
    "You don’t know the Bruno Caboclo......"
    Bruno Caboclo

  18. #18
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    20,639
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    There was one thing in your cherry picked reply that I would like to address with a cherry pick of my own

    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    The luck the Raptors need to be anything more than an 8th seed is guys overachieving, a major coup in a trade, and finding absolute bargains on minimum contracts (Jimmy Butler/productive young players on rookie deals, Danny Green type contracts, Chandler Parsons type contracts - imagine a healthy Fields with a 3 point shot making $2M - that is what I refer to). With so much money tied up in inefficient players (Gay, DeRozan, Bargnani), the Raptors need a real homerun or two from the bargain bin.
    I meant to refer to anything more than an 8th seed in the context of staying the course with few changes to what is currently on the roster. Not sure if that message came through or not. However your reply, which is below, is not something I agree with.

    Quote NoBan wrote: View Post
    That’s not only unrealistic, it’s next to impossible.

    Guys overachieving? We’ve been hoping for that year after year. And even when they do, other guys underachieve and we wind up still stuck in no-mans-land.

    Major coup in a trade? I’m sure every single team is hoping for this. Is there anything to suggest this is the slightest bit lucky? NBA teams aren’t going to hand assets to us. Even teams with poor decision making processes (Kings, Nets) aren’t going to hand us something useful just because. Not to get too far off topic, but we all know how this strategy worked out for the Jays. “Major coup in a trade” is off the table.

    Bargains on minimum contracts? The way to make this happen is to nail a second round pick (or very late first). Not only has that never happened for this organization, we don’t even have a second round pick to use. This option is off the table as well.

    Somebody else mentioned that we need to find a “diamond in the rough.” Well, thats kinda what AA was if you look at his paycheque vs contribution. Finding another AA, AP or Garbo is not the ticket to a contender (again, like it says in your sig).
    First part on guys overachieving. I agree we've been hoping for that year after year - in fact 7 years for a certain player. However it doesn't mean it is not impossible and I would also include under this guys developing. I don't think anyone would say JV is a finished product nor Ross. I don't think anyone would agree Fields showed what he is capable of this season unless they believe his forearm injury/nerve damage is permanent. Amir Johnson is a guy who has steadily improved.

    Second part on major trade coup. Well, yes, that is what every team hopes for in every trade. However sometimes those trades do work out in another team's favour. Do you think Hammond/Bucks are not looking at Tobias Harris in Orlando and saying, "WTF?" Colangelo has managed to find those diamond in the rough in Joe Johnson from the Celtics; Colangelo has also managed to find pieces of shit in the flower bed too. I'm not saying this is likely but I'm not ruling out the possibility of it either. The Blue Jays is a bad example because MLB does not have a CBA limiting salaries in trades. I'm not talking about major contracts getting passed from one team to another, I'm talking prospects or guys with talent who have not been in an ideal situation to show it.

    Third part on bargains on minimum contracts. More than 2nd round picks can be signed to minimum contracts. Nate Robinson is an example this season. I don't include AA because I don't think he is a bargain (or a diamond in the rough). I think he is what he is: a third string SG who was given more of a role this season than he should have been. Of the 65 games he played this season he only had 13 where he shot more than .500 but 27 games where he shot .333 or less (leaving of course 25 games where he shot between 33.4-49%, 14 of which were less than .400).

    I'm not seeing any real reason to see why the Raptors could not "luck" in to a good young player in a bad situation buried on another team's bench, a "cheap" free agent, or a bargain minimum contract. The only reason I see in your post why none of that could happen is because your opinion states it is an impossibility.
    Last edited by mcHAPPY; Tue May 14th, 2013 at 07:53 PM.
    "You don’t know the Bruno Caboclo......"
    Bruno Caboclo

  19. #19
    Raptors Republic All-Star ebrian's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Markham
    Posts
    1,546
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Third part on bargains on minimum contracts. More than 2nd round picks can be signed to minimum contracts. Nate Robinson is an example this season. I don't include AA because I don't think he is a bargain (or a diamond in the rough). I think he is what he is: a third string SG who was given more of a role this season than he should have been. Of the 65 games he played this season he only had 13 where he shot more than .500 but 27 games where he shot .333 or less (leaving of course 25 games where he shot between 33.4-49%, 14 of which were less than .400).

    I'm not seeing any real reason to see why the Raptors could not "luck" in to a good young player in a bad situation buried on another team's bench, a "cheap" free agent, or a bargain minimum contract. The only reason I see in your post why none of that could happen is because your opinion states it is an impossibility.
    We could luck out in a good young player like Robinson, but the likelihood of him playing the way he has as a Bull is probably very low. You're looking at a rejuvenated Nate Robinson in a really great system, but you take that guy on our team and he probably just plays the same way he's always played -- which is between average and below-average. I posted these stats in another forum a week ago, forgive me if they're a few games outdated.

    Nate Robinson Career Averages
    field goal: 42.5%
    3-pointers: 35.4%
    Win Shares: 2.8
    ORtg: 108
    DRtg: 111
    PER: 15.6

    Last 3 seasons
    field goal: 42.1%
    3-pointers: 36.1%
    Win Shares: 2.0
    ORtg: 105
    DRtg: 108
    PER: 15.0

    As a Bull
    field goal: 43.3%
    3-pointers: 40.5%
    Win Shares: 5.9
    ORtg: 108
    DRtg: 105
    PER: 17.4

    Playoff comparisons are even more pronounced (irrelevant if he'd been a Raptor):

    Career playoff averages
    field goal: 36.6%
    3-pointers: 33.3%
    Win Shares: 0.4
    ORtg: 106
    DRtg: 104
    PER: 17.1

    Current playoff run
    field goal: 50.4%
    3-pointers: 36.6%
    Win Shares: 0.8
    ORtg: 114
    DRtg: 110
    PER: 20.7

    As much as I hate saying it, Alan Anderson on the Bulls is likely an entirely different guy. We'd probably be hearing a whole lot about Thibs' use of him and how awesome of a bargain they got on him. On the Raptors, whole different animal.
    your pal,
    ebrian

  20. #20
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    20,639
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote ebrian wrote: View Post
    We could luck out in a good young player like Robinson, but the likelihood of him playing the way he has as a Bull is probably very low. You're looking at a rejuvenated Nate Robinson in a really great system, but you take that guy on our team and he probably just plays the same way he's always played -- which is between average and below-average. I posted these stats in another forum a week ago, forgive me if they're a few games outdated.

    Nate Robinson Career Averages
    field goal: 42.5%
    3-pointers: 35.4%
    Win Shares: 2.8
    ORtg: 108
    DRtg: 111
    PER: 15.6

    Last 3 seasons
    field goal: 42.1%
    3-pointers: 36.1%
    Win Shares: 2.0
    ORtg: 105
    DRtg: 108
    PER: 15.0

    As a Bull
    field goal: 43.3%
    3-pointers: 40.5%
    Win Shares: 5.9
    ORtg: 108
    DRtg: 105
    PER: 17.4

    Playoff comparisons are even more pronounced (irrelevant if he'd been a Raptor):

    Career playoff averages
    field goal: 36.6%
    3-pointers: 33.3%
    Win Shares: 0.4
    ORtg: 106
    DRtg: 104
    PER: 17.1

    Current playoff run
    field goal: 50.4%
    3-pointers: 36.6%
    Win Shares: 0.8
    ORtg: 114
    DRtg: 110
    PER: 20.7

    As much as I hate saying it, Alan Anderson on the Bulls is likely an entirely different guy. We'd probably be hearing a whole lot about Thibs' use of him and how awesome of a bargain they got on him. On the Raptors, whole different animal.
    Good post.

    Could there be a guy out there who would fit perfectly in to what Casey is trying to do? All guys in the NBA are talented. The superstars are what they are regardless. The rest typically are influenced by their situation/surroundings.

    I don't see why the Raptors can't 'luck' in to a bargain minimum contract or get a surprise player in a trade or sign a bargain free agent. Is it likely? Time will tell. But bringing this back to the context of the discussion, I don't see the reason to blow it up or stay status quo to be the only options. There is talent on this team, more so than in the last five years. Finding a couple of pieces and a change in coaching strategy could have this team competing for the division (big statement I know but I am not sold on BKN, NY, BOS, or PHI moving forward).
    "You don’t know the Bruno Caboclo......"
    Bruno Caboclo

Page 1 of 42 1 2 3 11 ... LastLast

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •