A lot of top five picks paid off for their teams. But the Raps have had two #4 picks that paid off for a while then left the franchise in worse shape then before. So much for knowable risk. But if I am working with a guy every day, and that guy is putting in the work, I know that guy is going to get better. And if he is unwilling to work, I'm trading his ass and finding someone who is willing to buy in and commit.