- managment changes over time. Cleveland has gone through 3 (maybe 4?) GMs since Lebron was drafted.
- ownership changes, and as such expectations on managers change over time. Golden State sold in 2010, since then how the team has operated changed greatly (may have been a management change aswell although I'm not sure on that)
- good managers taking good risks can still lose. Even Warren Buffet has plenty of losers in his portfolio.
- and what the heck was the criteria here? Winning a lottery/drafting a stud and then winning a championship or building a contender is the only thing that defines 'good management'? Reading Matt52's posts doesn't seem to indicate to me that was his criteria - seems that he has a much broader view of 'good management'.
Poor management may not disprove the stated 'fact'. There may be other reasons to. But I'd point out the 'fact' is not a 'fact' at all. Its at best a very weak correlation that avoids all causation.
LBF's argument was, even if he didn't mean it as such, making a great pick = losing that player. Which simply avoids the 1000s of different events that take place between those two points. Matt52 (and others) were pointing out a very obvious cause of the result.
Drafting a stud (in this case Wiggins) doesn't mean he'll leave because Lebron did. Drafting a stud and then doing a crappy job building around/with him will likely greatly increase the chance he'll leave though. But even that argument is universal to all players and all forms of team building. There is no shortage players (studs or not) who will leave their team if their team is doing a crappy job, or even if their team isn't doing a crappy job. No matter if they are drafted, traded for or signed as a free agent.
What if you draft a stud and building around him doesn't work out? What if you trade for a stud and building around him doesn't work out? What if you sign a stud and building around him doesn't work out? What if you try and build a Detroit like well rounded roster without a stud and it doesn't work?
I really don't know - what do you do if something doesn't work out? Keep trying or fold up into the fetal position and give up I guess......
I have no idea why tanking threads need to be become such a bastion of logical fallacies.