View Poll Results: What word best describes your preference moving forward for the Raptors?

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  • Tanker

    12 31.58%
  • Tweaker

    26 68.42%
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Thread: Rebuild or Re-tool? (thread merge in post #358)

  1. #841
    Raptors Republic Starter jimmie's Avatar
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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    I'm not even sure what the sides are. I'm part of the camp who wants to see Ujiri make the right long term moves but not join in on the intentional race to the bottom of the standings; if the Raptors end up there anyway so be it but I don't how that can happen right now unless Ujiri goes against his own words and essentially dumps assets and trading him for expiring contracts and late first rounders is a dump in my opinion... And again, I don't want to see them dump because I think it's tanking.
    For the record, Apollo, I agree 100% on your definition of tanking. If it's not "intentionally losing", it's not tanking, it's "rebuilding".

    I don't know where people started getting the idea that shedding players who don't live up to their contract value or don't fit the longer-term vision of the team or are duplicates of existing skillsets = tanking. It's not tanking, it's attempting to get better using the assets you have on hand. It's what every single team does every single year in every single sport -- or else the GM isn't doing their job. The only difference from team to team is the scope of change on an annual basis, coupled with your window for success, which will dictate how hard and fast you approach the changes to your roster.

    You have to look at it from Ujiri's perspective: if you don't believe that the pieces you have are the pieces you need to eventually win a championship, then it logically follows that you will change some of those pieces. Which could lead to losing more games, or winning more. That's the approach I believe he's taking -- opportunistic, ready to move assets at a moment's notice if the return is in line with the kind of roster he sees eventually winning a championship.

    I don't think he's currently looking to make massive changes, but I don't think he'll turn his nose up at a big move if one comes his way, even if it means less wins in 2013-14.
    Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.

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  3. #842
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Another truth is the team was extremely weak at backup PG last season and Buycks is not a sure fire upgrade considering he has no NBA experience.

    I have a feeling a lot of these topics will be hit many thousands of more times between now and February trade deadline. You can argue with others (or yourself in my case) until you are blue in the face which way MU is looking to go (keep or trade Gay/Lowry/DD). Both sides have solid arguments in my opinion.
    Well I've advertised my love for Walker's game and spirit in the past in here so it is interesting.

    In regards to bold #1, I agree.

    Bold #2, we'll see. I don't think he pulls the trigger unless he does better. The guy has a tendency of not following the crowd so he may see the demand for the 2014 draft as an opportunity to fleece teams with desire to get in on the action for all we know.

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  5. #843
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Bold 1: I think you can make the right long term moves and not join intentional race to bottom. Maybe I'm idealistic or naive or foolish or worse.


    Bold 2: I agree. However, I think any deal with Masai returns more than expiring crap and late first rounders. Charlotte and Cleveland are the teams to watch in my opinion.

    What would you think of the imaginary trade I proposed: Kemba/Biyombo/Gordon (expiring)/Detroit 1st/Portland 1st for Lowry/Gay.
    I'm not a big fan of Kemba, but for argument sake, let's say Lowry-Kemba is a wash. Now we'd be trading Gay for Biyombo (destined to be energy backup forever), scrap-heap Gordon and either a top 8 or top 12 protected pick, neither of which provides a pick in the so-called elite crop of 2014. I'm not sure why we would want to do that, but why would Charlotte want Gay to supplant their #2 overall pick from last year (MKG)?

  6. #844
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    Quote p00ka wrote: View Post
    I'm not a big fan of Kemba, but for argument sake, let's say Lowry-Kemba is a wash. Now we'd be trading Gay for Biyombo (destined to be energy backup forever), scrap-heap Gordon and either a top 8 or top 12 protected pick, neither of which provides a pick in the so-called elite crop of 2014. I'm not sure why we would want to do that, but why would Charlotte want Gay to supplant their #2 overall pick from last year (MKG)?
    I think Kemba/Lowry ends up being a wash because you get multiple years of Kemba for one of Lowry; I think Charlotte does this trade because they can platoon MKG (who needs development time) behind Rudy and they're in win-now mode.

    The Detroit/Portland picks end up most likely being mid-round picks in the 12-18 range and there are some promising players in the 2014 draft who'll most likely go in that range - not franchise level, perhaps, but definitely promising (Andrew Harrison, Dario Saaric, James McAdoo, etc.). They're not bad assets at all.

    And the argument for trading Rudy is simple: his contract either destroys financial flexibility in 2014, or he leaves for a longterm offer next year. Rudy is talented but you have to build your team to handle him (you need perimeter shooting to give him spacing so he works his slashing game ideally, plus you want a pass-first floor general PG to maximize his good touches), his game duplicates DeMar's and DeMar is half the price for most of the ability, and it's arguably not worth the hassle.

  7. #845
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    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    I think Kemba/Lowry ends up being a wash because you get multiple years of Kemba for one of Lowry; I think Charlotte does this trade because they can platoon MKG (who needs development time) behind Rudy and they're in win-now mode.

    The Detroit/Portland picks end up most likely being mid-round picks in the 12-18 range and there are some promising players in the 2014 draft who'll most likely go in that range - not franchise level, perhaps, but definitely promising (Andrew Harrison, Dario Saaric, James McAdoo, etc.). They're not bad assets at all.

    And the argument for trading Rudy is simple: his contract either destroys financial flexibility in 2014, or he leaves for a longterm offer next year. Rudy is talented but you have to build your team to handle him (you need perimeter shooting to give him spacing so he works his slashing game ideally, plus you want a pass-first floor general PG to maximize his good touches), his game duplicates DeMar's and DeMar is half the price for most of the ability, and it's arguably not worth the hassle.
    "Win now mode'? WTF are you talking about? They add No D Al Jefferson to a horrible team, and you say they're in "win now mode"'? Win what now, that they would trade for an overpriced guy that you say we shouldn't want, who would take most of their #2 pick's sophomore minutes away? They're in "win a lower lottery pick mode"? This is an example of just about every suggested move that one sees from fans. They assume the other teams are going to do stupid shit.

    As far as your straw man "DeMar is a duplicate" argument, it has nothing to do with whether a trade of Rudy makes sense for the other team, and gives the Raps a suitable return, and I dare say that getting a pick at the bigger crapshoot end of the draft is hardly a good return for your best player.

  8. #846
    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
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    Quote p00ka wrote: View Post
    A fine example of how raw stats can be used (manipulated) to support just about any argument. You're suggesting the Raptors should pay attention to this reasoning in deciding that tanking is the way to go? This type of "plan" is supported by the Top 20 in these various stat categories? Really? S&^t, I hate raw stats being used for s&^t like this, but you're saying use these stats to support your tank argument in making serious, long term plans for the organization. In turn:

    Use of WS/48

    which puts Splitter (over Duncan even), Lopez, Ibaka, West, George Hill..............
    Over Kobe (whose tied with Verajeo who played 25 games), as well as all of these that follow.
    Even puts Calderon and Ed Davis (tied with Anthony Davis) over Millsap, Horford, Paul George, Noah, Dirk, Z-Bo, Lawson, Pierce, Garnett, Hibbert, etc.

    Use of PER

    Which puts Lopez, Anthony Davis, Verajao (with 25 games), Al Jefferson above: West, Bosh, Millsap, Horford, Dirk, Marc Gasol (below Hickson for fk sake), Dwight, Garnett, Pierce, Noah, Rondo, Z-Bo, Lawson, Josh Smith, Hibbert, Paul George, Lillard, Rubio, etc.

    Use of WP

    Which puts Ibaka, Sefolosha, Conley, AK47, Faried, Marion, Calderon, Amir
    over Duncan, Kobe, Z-Bo, Westbrook, Horford, Tony Parker, Bosh, Rubio, etc.

    AND puts JJ Hickson at same number as Duncan,
    Tristan Thompson over Horford, Parker, Bosh, Rubio, Hibbert, Aldridge, etc.
    Kyle Lowry over Pierce, West, Rondo, Rubio, Hibbert, Aldridge, etc.
    Ed Davis over Rondo, Rubio, Hibbert, Aldridge, etc.

    THESE ARE STATS THAT YOU FEEL SUPPORT A TANK ARGUMENT? WHATEVER.
    I'm not sure how one defines these rather complex equations as 'raw stats', but I guess to each their own.

    Why I used those 'raw stats' was to give me an objective list of players. As you'll note I defined them as "statistical stars". I used 3 very unique, but common, metrics that can tell us very different things. I also used players named to the allstar team (fan and coach consensus stars). I tried to use every 'non Craiger induced' list I could find to eliminate any bias from the samples I used, yet offer simplicity.

    All said and done it gave us approx 45 (an estimate) different players (approx 10% of the league), to work with. Thats a very broad range.

    The stats themselves are doing nothing other than giving us a list of players.

    But if you like I'll make a list of who I feel is the top 20 players in the NBA (not in order).

    Lebron James
    Kevin Durant
    Tony Parker
    Tim Duncan
    Kevin Love
    Marc Gasol
    Chris Paul
    Blake Griffin
    Dwane Wade
    Dwight Howard
    Russel Westbrook
    James Harden
    Brook Lopez
    Serge Ibaka
    Derek Rose
    Deron Williams
    Kobe Bryant
    Rajon Rondo
    Carmelo Anthony
    Dirk Nowitzki

    14 are with the teams that drafted them. Of the 6 remaining, none are in a market that is not NY/LA/Miami/Houston or Dallas

    Problem solved?
    Last edited by Craiger; Mon Jul 15th, 2013 at 05:11 PM.

  9. #847
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    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    I'm not sure how one defines these rather complex equations as 'raw stats', but I guess to each their own.

    Why I used those 'raw stats' was to give me an objective list of players. As you'll note I defined them as "statistical stars". I used 3 very unique, but common, metrics that can tell us very different things. I also used players named to the allstar team (fan and coach consensus stars). I tried to use every 'non Craiger induced' list I could find to eliminate any bias from the samples I used, yet offer simplicity.

    All said and done it gave us approx 45 (an estimate) different players (approx 10% of the league), to work with. Thats a very broad range.

    The stats themselves are doing nothing other than giving us a list of players.

    But if you like I'll make a list of who I feel is the top 20 players in the NBA (not in order).

    Lebron James
    Kevin Durant
    Tony Parker
    Tim Duncan
    Kevin Love
    Marc Gasol
    Chris Paul
    Blake Griffin
    Dwane Wade
    Dwight Howard
    Russel Westbrook
    James Harden
    Brook Lopez
    Serge Ibaka
    Derek Rose
    Deron Williams
    Kobe Bryant
    Rajon Rondo
    Carmelo Anthony
    Dirk Nowitzki

    14 are with the teams that drafted them. Of the 6 remaining, none are in a market that is not NY/LA/Miami/Houston or Dallas

    Problem solved?
    1st bold: I guess the concept of the term "raw stats' escapes you. As I pointed out with numerous examples, you're using stats that rank inferior players ahead of far superior players, sometimes far ahead, by anybody's judgement. "RAW", as in do you think some factors are missing from what raw numbers tell you about a player's value/ability? I think there are many factors that can affect the numbers, other than a player's own skills, but that's hard to tell to number crunchers.

    2nd bold: I don't know what "problem" you're referring to, but so far you're only providing a stat of how many of "your top 20" are with the team that drafted them. So fn what? How about something relevant? Since the whole discussion is about building a team to win championships, how many of these players have won championships with the teams that drafted them, and how many championships are we talking about, outside of LAL and SAS?

  10. #848
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    Quote p00ka wrote: View Post
    "Win now mode'? WTF are you talking about? They add No D Al Jefferson to a horrible team, and you say they're in "win now mode"'?
    Charlotte's been openly chasing pretty much every free agent they thought they had a shot at and every major NBA writer agrees they're doing their best to make a playoff run, for pretty much the same reason Toronto is: they're sick of losing and they don't have the patience (or, given that it's Charlotte, possibly the skill) to do a proper rebuild. Granted, it's surprising that they were considering letting Gerald Henderson go in favour of a try at Monta Ellis, but desperate teams do that. Charlotte wants to make playoffs this year if they can do it; if they're willing to pay fairly (or overpay) for assets, we should oblige them.

    Win what now, that they would trade for an overpriced guy that you say we shouldn't want
    You keep making this point like the Mavericks didn't sign Monta Ellis to an inflated contract (bear with me). I think Ellis isn't worth more than a few million, but Dallas is paying him 8 to 10 large per year. Jefferson wasn't worth his contract either, but it happened. Teams routinely overpay for assets, even moderately questionable ones, especially when they decide they want to win in a given year: Charlotte, Milwaukee, Dallas, you can even make a case for Cleveland (I am still leery of the Bynum signing).

    In Charlotte's case, MKG is a young player with upside but one who isn't quite panning out as hoped so far; there is the argument to platoon him with Rudy for a couple years, maybe MKG goes swingman and plays SG along Rudy if need be (especially if the Bobcats are seriously thinking about giving up on Henderson), or maybe they play him as a sixth man. Rudy simply upgrades the Bobcats' roster.

    And I say we shouldn't want Rudy, but that's not because he's not a good player - he is (as I have consistently maintained). Maybe a bit of a volume shooter, sure, but he's a good player; he's just massively overpaid. But in any trade for Rudy, we're taking salary back from the other team - Charlotte would be Ben Gordon, Dallas Shawn Marion, et cetera - so it's not so bad a hit for them.

  11. #849
    Raptors Republic Veteran LBF's Avatar
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    Adam Morrison, that is all.
    If Your Uncle Jack Helped You Off An Elephant, Would You Help Your Uncle Jack Off An Elephant?

    Sometimes, I like to buy a book on CD and listen to it, while reading music.

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  13. #850
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote p00ka wrote: View Post
    I'm not a big fan of Kemba, but for argument sake, let's say Lowry-Kemba is a wash. Now we'd be trading Gay for Biyombo (destined to be energy backup forever), scrap-heap Gordon and either a top 8 or top 12 protected pick, neither of which provides a pick in the so-called elite crop of 2014. I'm not sure why we would want to do that, but why would Charlotte want Gay to supplant their #2 overall pick from last year (MKG)?
    Lowry-Kemba might be a wash but Kemba is 4 years younger with 2 years remaining on a rookie deal (well, 1 after this season).

    Biyombo as energy backup is exactly what I was thinking - they are valuable. However for all the talk about DD being 24 in August and still his potential, I would think a guy who will turn 21 in August, started playing ball just 4 years ago with his physical attributes and athleticism is just oozing an over abundance of potential. So who knows. Amir is a good example of what happens when you keep working.

    As for picks, if January rolls around and the picks are likely to be in the 9-15 range, that is pretty good. Who is to say they can't combine the two picks to get in to the top 8? Then there is the cap space that could be used after July 1st to take a bad contract and throw in another pick to move up again.

    Also don't forget about the Raptors own pick which could be combined with one of the others.


    Why Raptors do that? Lots of assets and flexibility with two young players that can grow with JV and Ross (the U22 club).

    Why does Charlotte do that? MKG won't be 20 until September and they will have the opportunity to keep him for another 7-8 seasons. #2 pick means little once selection is made - Wolves trying to trade Williams since draft night, Beasley anyone? They have lost for a long time. The franchise has some of the worst attendance in the league. The Hornets used to be a league leader in attendance and they are changing to that name again next season. They don't make money. They just threw $40M at Jefferson. Whether they win now or not is not the question or issue. The issue is they are TRYING to win as much as they can now without a care to ceiling or championships.

    Now with all that said, it was just an example of the type of trade I would consider making and one which I support when I say tanking: financial flexibility (Gordon), proven talent (Kemba), prospect (Biyombo), picks (DET/POR).
    "You donít know the Bruno Caboclo......"
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    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

  14. #851
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Bucks are doing all they can to stay on that treadmill!






    I guess sending out Harris for JJ ensured the 1st round playoff berth and the necessary money to pay Gooden to leave.
    "You donít know the Bruno Caboclo......"
    Bruno Caboclo

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

  15. #852
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Lowry-Kemba might be a wash but Kemba is 4 years younger with 2 years remaining on a rookie deal (well, 1 after this season).

    Biyombo as energy backup is exactly what I was thinking - they are valuable. However for all the talk about DD being 24 in August and still his potential, I would think a guy who will turn 21 in August, started playing ball just 4 years ago with his physical attributes and athleticism is just oozing an over abundance of potential. So who knows. Amir is a good example of what happens when you keep working.
    Here's the thing about Biyombo (which I'm sure you remember)

    According to: Anonymous NBA scouts/GMs, Donald Trump

    Ford's anonymous scouts peg Biyombo at 22, or thereabouts. In the Hoop Summit aftermath, NBA.com's David Aldridge wrote that "an Eastern Conference GM said he heard rumors that Biyombo was anywhere from 23 to 26." SI's Ian Thomsen claimed that "a half-dozen NBA scouts and executives told [him] they believed Biyombo was older than his listed age of 18."
    http://www.sbnation.com/nba-draft/20...nba-draft-2011

    In other words, no one know what Biyombo's upside is, because he might already be there. I pretty much agree with you but I'm not sure Biyombo comparisons to any Raptor is a definitively winning debate with all the doubts around his age.

  16. #853
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Masai is the master.

    So much for everyone knowing the direction by draft night.

    He still has everyone guessing which way they will go.

    The signings this off-season have done nothing to change that.
    "You donít know the Bruno Caboclo......"
    Bruno Caboclo

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

  17. #854
    Raptors Republic All-Star Jclaw's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Masai is the master.

    So much for everyone knowing the direction by draft night.

    He still has everyone guessing which way they will go.

    The signings this off-season have done nothing to change that.
    Hopefully he is the master and things aren't exactly clear but maybe it's just because he hasn't made too many big moves (AB aside). The best you can try to read is from what he hasn't done. He hasn't given away talent for pennies on the dollar. He hasn't signed or traded for players with big/long contracts who may be the piece to push us forward in the playoffs. The only line he has consistently said to anyone who asks is "we are evaluating what we have". First press conference and as recent as the game time interview last night. It looks like he is going to take a look at this team for 20-30 games (arbitrary number....insert yours here). If they defy the naysayers and prove to be the 4th best starting five in the league, then run with it. He's at the casino with a free coin to put in the slot machine. If it comes up 7's...enjoy it. If, the more likely scenario occurs, he can then start unloading assets at a time when other teams on the rise have an idea of what they need. If someone decides to blow him out of the water with a great "picks for talent" package in the meantime, I'm sure he'll listen. This has been mentioned elsewhere but at the end of the day, it's consistent with everything he has said and everything he hasn't done.

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  19. #855
    Raptors Republic Superstar planetmars's Avatar
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    What I'm liking the most about MU's signings is that he's targeting 2015/2016 as the season to make noise. He will have a load of flexibility then as all his big contracts (minus DeMar) will become expirings or will need to be re-upped (JV/Ross).

    Pscyho-T and then Augustine are again 1/2 year signings. He's not breaking the bank for a long term contract. So if he bring in draft picks I could see him doing so for the 2015/2016 drafts and not necessarily the 2014 draft (and based on what I'm seeing the price tag for a 2014 pick is very high).

    This is the opposite to what BC did. BC loved giving out 4 year contracts. Whether it was Jose, Kapono, Bargnani, DeRozan, Kleiza, Jack.. it didn't matter. MU is not doing it, and I love it.

  20. #856
    Raptors Republic Starter phez's Avatar
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    2 roster spots left, about 2 mill MLE left

    who's next?

  21. #857
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    Quote phez wrote: View Post
    2 roster spots left, about 2 mill MLE left

    who's next?
    Well if they're buying out Camby, one would think they might need another big body that can play C.

  22. #858
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    http://www.raptorscage.ca/a-culture-...ronto-raptors/

    Coach Casey mentioned recently that he and former general manager Bryan Colangelo did not agree on style of play, which thus forced Casey to use offensive minded players and try to hide their weaknesses, *cough* Andrea Bargnani *cough*.
    With Ujiri’s arrival, his moves have showed, or at the very least hinted, that he is acquiring players best suit for Casey’s style of play. Ujiri even mentioned in his media scrum when Steve Novak was acquired, that when he was in Denver, his job was to bring in the players that best suit George Karl‘s style of play – athletic, get out and run, offensive minded. Ujiri mentioned that his job was to get tough, gritty, hard mentality type players for Casey. So far, that’s been happening.

    “We tried that, it doesn’t fit,” Casey said of the free-flowing offence. “You have to have a certain personnel to do that and we have to find a pace that fits us.
    “I’m never going to be a guy who wants to walk it up every possession and grind it out that way. But if we do have to get in the halfcourt set we have to be physical.”

  23. #859
    Raptors Republic All-Star wallz's Avatar
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    That's good to hear

  24. #860
    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
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    Just to play a little devil's advocate here (paraphrased):

    "Bargnani is a star" - "come hell or high water" - "we need shooters"

    If there is anything Casey is not, its a fool.

    Its the Captain that goes down with the ship, not the Lieutenant.

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