Rebuild or Re-tool? (thread merge in post #358)

[mcHAPPY]

I know you said not to get caught up in the details but there's no way Golden State is giving up their two big expiring contracts (Biedrins & RJ) AND a first rounder just to take Bargnani's corpse off of the Raptors hands. Marion would be a decent tool for them but I don't think they're giving up their financial freedom next summer just to land him. With Bogut/Biedrins/Jefferson expiring in 2014 they will be in a position to sign a max level player outright to add to the Curry/Thompson/Barnes/Lee core.

As far as the concept in general, I don't like the idea of hedging between rebuilding and winning now. That's a recipe for a treadmill team. I think you are underestimating what the Raptors would have to give up to walk away with 4 first rounders (including 3 potential lottery picks) over the next two drafts, and a ton of cap space too. It would definitely cost more than just DeRozan and Bargnani, which would weaken the potential to compete now, which would put us back in that no man's land where we're not drafting in the top 5 but not really a playoff contender either. Sounds like a BC plan.

I'm also unclear about you listing guys like Lowry, Gay and Amir as expiring contracts that will give the team cap space over the next two years. If you plan on using the cap space rather than re-signing them then a) that's a huge glut of talent leaving the roster all at once = rebuild time and b) I don't know why you wouldn't just trade them now, get even more picks/prospects back and start a true rebuild process now and in a proper fashion. And if you do plan on re-signing them, then they really do not represent cap space at all. In fact, a couple of those players will likely be due for raises.

I've said it before and I will say it again: if we "stay the course" with the current core, we are staring down a rebuild in two years time anyway. Do it properly now and you don't waste two years of a cheap JV entering his prime, plus you get to take advantage of an awesome draft in 2014.

GSW won't be able to sign a max free agent next year with Bogut's cap hold... unless they renounce him. Bogut was the big reason for their turnaround.

As for the hedging, if you have other 1st round picks I'm not seeing the problem. The Raps have the makings for a playoff team (Lowry, Gay, JV, Amir, Fields, Ross) assuming some of the players grow and return to previous form (big assumptions) and they add a couple of value pieces with MLE or mininum contracts. You very well could be right on what DD and Bargnani return but don't forget there are some pretty bad contracts coming back to Toronto in exchange for those assets.

If you exclude Lowry, Gay, and Amir, you are still looking at $11M next season and $23M the following season in expiring contracts. The point is flexibility and, when talking about Lowry and Amir, players who are actually worth their contracts. As for huge glut of talent leaving, who is to say they have not been replaced? What happens if Schroeder is as good as advertised or any other draft pick (assumption Raptors draft him)? You've got a starter on a cheap rookie deal freeing up cap space elsewhere.

Your last paragraph is looking at things from black and white. I'm fine with going a total rebuild (as a Rap fan when the Raptors suck I also have the NCAA to keep me occupied) or tinkering with what is here. But if rebuild is done it would really suck to end up with an Oden-like player (injuries), Williams-like player (over valued), or Morrison (bust). Also if you can find a team that thinks they are better than they are going to be or is tired of adding youth in the draft getting nowhere, you just might get their picks. It is a big if but isn't everything?

The Raps have enough guys under contract who can contribute that they could hypothetically use 4-5 roster spots to take on crap in exchange for an asset while still competing - because the crap (like Bargnani or Kleiza) is never going to see the floor anyways.

[Apollo]

The Viscous Cycle

Forget the details and focus on the concept.

Regarding DD, yes, they can if they are willing to take back salary. For the sake of the concept I laid out, the goal was to shed salary/gain TPE to get more picks.

Maybe my idea of payroll is novel but I see nothing wrong with them spending to luxury tax, in fact I look at it as a benefit because they have use of funds other teams cannot under the CBA. I think with a cap number close to tax they can be "buyers" of teams looking to shed cap by trading off their expiring contracts. Not all cap dumps are for players of little value and on top of this sometimes teams toss in incentives, like picks, to get people to take their cap "burdens" so that they can pursue the D12's and CP3's of the league in FA.

I think clearing cap space is overrated. This is what I'm getting at. It's overrated because no one is going to come to Toronto unless Toronto is the highest bidder and so you're getting to a scenario of dumping cap to then turn around and overpay other players to come here who then you will soon be talking about in cap dumping scenarios.

[mcHAPPY]

Maybe my idea of payroll is novel but I see nothing wrong with them spending to luxury tax, in fact I look at it as a benefit because they have use of funds other teams cannot under the CBA. I think with a cap number close to tax they can be "buyers" of teams looking to shed cap by trading off their expiring contracts. Not all cap dumps are for players of little value and on top of this sometimes teams toss in incentives, like picks, to get people to take their cap "burdens" so that they can pursue the D12's and CP3's of the league in FA.

I think clearing cap space is overrated. This is what I'm getting at. It's overrated because no one is going to come to Toronto unless Toronto is the highest bidder and so you're getting to a scenario of dumping cap to then turn around and overpay other players to come here who then you will soon be talking about in cap dumping scenarios.

I agree with this.

But in this particular DeRozan scenario I laid out a situation to get a TPE to take on other bad salaries to get more picks. The move is not to free cap space to go in to free agency but to create a mechanism to take back salary when the Raptors are already over the cap.

[Apollo]

I guess my stumbling point is trading DeMar for essentially the #14(a wildcard) and the right to spend hole in the payroll left by clearing DeMar off the books. I think we differ in opinions on what he's worth or what we're happy with receiving for him or both.

[Fully]

GSW won't be able to sign a max free agent next year with Bogut's cap hold... unless they renounce him. Bogut was the big reason for their turnaround.

As for the hedging, if you have other 1st round picks I'm not seeing the problem. The Raps have the makings for a playoff team (Lowry, Gay, JV, Amir, Fields, Ross) assuming some of the players grow and return to previous form (big assumptions) and they add a couple of value pieces with MLE or mininum contracts. You very well could be right on what DD and Bargnani return but don't forget there are some pretty bad contracts coming back to Toronto in exchange for those assets.

Well of course you can have the best of both worlds if you're just coming up with completely unrealistic trade scenarios involving the Raptors - ones where the team gets to keep virtually all of their good players and yet still end up with 5 first rounders over the next two seasons and a ton of cap space next summer.

That Golden State trade is insane. The Raptors give up Bargnani and get... Two first rounders (1 lottery) and two big contracts that expire before Bargnani's does? I seriously doubt the Warriors would give up Biedrins or Jefferson alone for AB.

And as an aside, no the Warriors may not completely get rid of Bogut next summer but they won't be paying him $15 million dollars a season either. I wouldn't call him the reason for their turnaround considering he's played 44 games combined over the last two years. Even if Bogut's salary gets cut in half, that's over $20 million in expiring money between Biedrins, Jefferson and Bogut's pay slash.

If you exclude Lowry, Gay, and Amir, you are still looking at $11M next season and $23M the following season in expiring contracts. The point is flexibility and, when talking about Lowry and Amir, players who are actually worth their contracts. As for huge glut of talent leaving, who is to say they have not been replaced? What happens if Schroeder is as good as advertised or any other draft pick (assumption Raptors draft him)? You've got a starter on a cheap rookie deal freeing up cap space elsewhere.

Well your cap relief numbers are largely based on those same ridiculous trades. So no, it's flatly not that simple.

Furthermore, if your plan is to draft players to make Gay, Lowry, Amir expendable in free agency then why wouldn't you just trade them now and get even more prospects and picks back? Why shoot for the 7th or 8th seed over the next two years with a core that you don't plan on sticking with? You want to turn it over to the kids in two years time anyway so why not turn it over now and give yourself a chance to get one of the real difference makers at the top of the 2014 draft?

Your last paragraph is looking at things from black and white. I'm fine with going a total rebuild (as a Rap fan when the Raptors suck I also have the NCAA to keep me occupied) or tinkering with what is here. But if rebuild is done it would really suck to end up with an Oden-like player (injuries), Williams-like player (over valued), or Morrison (bust). Also if you can find a team that thinks they are better than they are going to be or is tired of adding youth in the draft getting nowhere, you just might get their picks. It is a big if but isn't everything?

The Raps have enough guys under contract who can contribute that they could hypothetically use 4-5 roster spots to take on crap in exchange for an asset while still competing - because the crap (like Bargnani or Kleiza) is never going to see the floor anyways.

Well of course it would suck if we bottomed out for a couple years and ended up with duds. It would also suck if we did your plan and the guys we picked in the teens never panned out, forcing us to re-up with the Lowry/Gay core and ride out another few years of mediocrity. It would also suck if we lose Gay/Amir/Lowry to free agency and can't find adequate replacements. Nothing is guaranteed in the NBA! I'm tired of the anti-tank crowd acting like the top end of the lottery is the only thing in the league that requires good fortune.

[Eric Akshinthala]

I was totally in favour of BC finishing the re-building job that he started. It didn't make sense to me (still doesn't) to abruptly disturb it and go in a different direction (not that I don't like Ujiri). In other words I was in favour of competing and making the play offs next year.

Now that the leadership direction has changed, I'd like to see them tank. We've got some assets that, other than help create flexibility, can also help accumulate some draft picks. Deep Talent filled drafts like the 2014 one don't come often. Let's take advantage of it and tank. I don't see it taking more than one year if the plan simply is "outright tanking".

[Apollo]

There was a structure change above Colangelo. Views/philosophies changed. That probably played a factor. His lack of performance also must have played a huge factor. I'm glad he's out. He had ample opportunity. It's not like they didn't give him a chance. It's not like they didn't give him complete control.

[Eric Akshinthala]

There was a structure change above Colangelo. Views/philosophies changed. That probably played a factor. His lack of performance also must have played a huge factor. I'm glad he's out. He had ample opportunity. It's not like they didn't give him a chance. It's not like they didn't give him complete control.

Now that it's done, good time to tank. Let Ujiri build HIS team from scratch.

[mcHAPPY]

I guess my stumbling point is trading DeMar for essentially the #14(a wildcard) and the right to spend hole in the payroll left by clearing DeMar off the books. I think we differ in opinions on what he's worth or what we're happy with receiving for him or both.

I think DD is worth more than #14 and a TPE as well.

However, if you are able to flip the TPE as I've been advocating, then you just turned DD in to two picks and an expiring contract. You don't do #14 and TPE without knowing you can do the next trade.

So I think we are both in agreement that #14 and a TPE is not enough for him. There has to be another move waiting in the wings.

[Apollo]

Now that it's done, good time to tank. Let Ujiri build HIS team from scratch.

Why build from scratch? Sounds like a couple wasted years of dismantling to me.

I think DD is worth more than #14 and a TPE as well.

However, if you are able to flip the TPE as I've been advocating, then you just turned DD in to two picks and an expiring contract. You don't do #14 and TPE without knowing you can do the next trade.

So I think we are both in agreement that #14 and a TPE is not enough for him. There has to be another move waiting in the wings.

Based on what we saw out of Colangelo, a guy known for wheeling and dealing, those TPE usually serve as nothing more than a way out for ownership while selling it as a trade asset to the fans--- until it expires. When it expires it's not talked about because there is no value in that to the fans.

Doing what you're saying is risky. You saying trade him for less in the hopes that the second domino is of great value. There are too many ifs, ands and buts for my liking personally but that's just me...

[thead]

@Fully you are getting caught up in details. TL mentioned "3 roads". I think people were curious what the middle road would look like. All details aside...I guess you could even go the player A, player B route if you like. We send out a good player

In this example Player A, Henceforth known as Pasta McCalfsore makes roughly 12 million dollars, Player B, aka Kenneth Von Staredown is an expiring 4 million dollar injury case. Golden State has 20 million dollars in expiring contracts and picks, in order to get them we are forced to give up Player C aka Amir Johnson.

We win because we shed not one but two useless players. GSW wins because two of the three players they pick up can contribute where the two expiring deals they had before do not. We win again because more than likely by the trade deadline, as happens every year, some team goes...ah fuck we built this wrong time to blow it up. (which ironically enough might be us this year)

[thead]

If anyone has a way to build a championship team that doesn't involve some risk or luck...please say so now, so that 30 GMs can pay you for your wisdom

[mcHAPPY]

Well of course you can have the best of both worlds if you're just coming up with completely unrealistic trade scenarios involving the Raptors - ones where the team gets to keep virtually all of their good players and yet still end up with 5 first rounders over the next two seasons and a ton of cap space next summer.

That Golden State trade is insane. The Raptors give up Bargnani and get... Two first rounders (1 lottery) and two big contracts that expire before Bargnani's does? I seriously doubt the Warriors would give up Biedrins or Jefferson alone for AB.

And as an aside, no the Warriors may not completely get rid of Bogut next summer but they won't be paying him $15 million dollars a season either. I wouldn't call him the reason for their turnaround considering he's played 44 games combined over the last two years. Even if Bogut's salary gets cut in half, that's over $20 million in expiring money between Biedrins, Jefferson and Bogut's pay slash.

The trade scenarios were not the important part. At least I know super moderator thead got the message.

Yes, when you state the trade as you have then it is insane. But the Raptors gave up DeRozan to get the opportunity to take on Biedrins and another pick. The Warriors also received Marion. Who would you rather give $20M to: Jefferson/Biedrins or Bargnani/Marion - especially when you have Carl Landry opting out and Jarrett Jack to resign?

Bogut will be a highly productive 29 year old C next summer looking for one final pay day. When you see the contracts McGee and Jordan got, he is going to be making closer to $15 than $9M - there goes that max salary you were talking about.

Well your cap relief numbers are largely based on those same ridiculous trades. So no, it's flatly not that simple.

Furthermore, if your plan is to draft players to make Gay, Lowry, Amir expendable in free agency then why wouldn't you just trade them now and get even more prospects and picks back? Why shoot for the 7th or 8th seed over the next two years with a core that you don't plan on sticking with? You want to turn it over to the kids in two years time anyway so why not turn it over now and give yourself a chance to get one of the real difference makers at the top of the 2014 draft?



Well of course it would suck if we bottomed out for a couple years and ended up with duds. It would also suck if we did your plan and the guys we picked in the teens never panned out, forcing us to re-up with the Lowry/Gay core and ride out another few years of mediocrity. It would also suck if we lose Gay/Amir/Lowry to free agency and can't find adequate replacements. Nothing is guaranteed in the NBA! I'm tired of the anti-tank crowd acting like the top end of the lottery is the only thing in the league that requires good fortune.

Again, the ridiculous trades were not the important. If you don't think something with the same or similar end results cannot be done, then that is fine. I personally think it can be done if you find one of those 7/11 teams who think they are better than they actually are or going to be OR if you find a team looking to unload bad contracts and are already extremely young.

Players might become expendable, they might not. They might become sign and trade possibilities, or they might not. They might draft players that make them expendable, they might not. My whole point is flexibility and keeping options open while maximizing return on assets. The Raptors are not near a contending team and there is a strong possibility they might not even be a playoff team.

Why shoot for the 7th/8th seed over the next 2 years with a core you don't plan on sticking with? Because situations don't exist in a vacuum. It is becoming cliche to go back to Indiana, but lets do it anyways. Where were they 3 years ago? 32 wins in the draft where they took George at #10. Where were they 2 years ago? 37 wins in the playoffs at the 8th seed losing 4-1 to Chicago with a starting lineup of Collison, Rush/Dunleavy/George, Grangers, McRoberts/Hansbrough, Hibbert. Where were they 1 year ago? 42 wins in the playoffs where they lost in the 2nd round to Orlando 4-1 with a starting lineup of Collison, George, Granger, West, Hibbert. Where were they this year? 49 wins and in the playoffs where they lost in the 3rd round/Conference Finals in game 7 with a starting lineup of Hill, Stephenson, George, West, Hibbert. If you have a plan and continue to bring in pieces that fit that plan (i.e. you continue to evolve and grow) you can still compete while building a contender.

Do you know what I'm tired of? The inability to think abstractly. Everything is not black and white. And I'm not sure if you label me as the anti-tank crowd or not but I'm happy to blow it up but in blowing it up, is Lowry, Gay, Amir, DeRozan going to return you nearly guaranteed lottery draft picks? And if they don't are you willing to accept pennies on the dollar to ensure your own draft pick might turn in to a winner?

[mcHAPPY]

Why build from scratch? Sounds like a couple wasted years of dismantling to me.



Based on what we saw out of Colangelo, a guy known for wheeling and dealing, those TPE usually serve as nothing more than a way out for ownership while selling it as a trade asset to the fans--- until it expires. When it expires it's not talked about because there is no value in that to the fans.

Doing what you're saying is risky. You saying trade him for less in the hopes that the second domino is of great value. There are too many ifs, ands and buts for my liking personally but that's just me...

That is understandable.

Like I said, it is already lined up or you bring another team in to make it a 3 or 4 team deal.

[Apollo]

it is already lined up or you bring another team in to make it a 3 or 4 team deal.

Oh, I must of missed that part when I was browsing the thread. My mistake.