Axel wrote:
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As good as Burke was in college, is he a great NBA PG? Think about how strong that position is first. Are you even that confident that Burke is a better player than Lowry in the NBA? I'm not.
Then consider next year's 8th pick....ok, so as strong as the draft is, all the hype is always focused at the top. Even in the STRONGEST drafts, the 8th pick can be complete garbage. Just off the top of my head, 2 of the strongest drafts of all time are 1984 and 2003.....
1-5 of 2003: Bron Bron, Darko, Melo, Bosh, Wade
6-10 of 2003: Chris Kaman, Kirk Hinrich, TJ Ford, Michael Sweetney, Jarvis Hayes
1-5 of 1984: Hakeem, Sam Bowie, Jordan, Sam Perkins, Charles Barkley
6-10 of 1984: Mel Turpin, Alvin Robertson, Lancaster Gordon, Otis Thorpe, Leon Wood.
There is no player in either of those 6-10 ranges who's as good as Gay. Robertson maybe for a few years in his prime. And maybe Thorpe as well. Maybe.
So you could end up trading Gay, draft an average-above average starting NBA PG, and then end up drafting a bust or role player with the 8th pick the next year. You have just turned a borderline all-star who will have very good trade value in his last contract year (when you'll be bringing in that prized #8 pick) into 2 more or less average players who don't significantly improve the fortunes of the team, and who will not be as valuable in swinging deals at that time.
The draft is maybe the best way to add talent, unfortunately it's also a gigantic crapshoot. In any given year, strong or weak, it's pretty lucky if more than 10 guys go on to have solid NBA careers. And usually at least 2 or 3 of those guys are in the top 5 (even if they are relative busts for their draft position and hoped potential....like Okafor for example)
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