Standing 6'4 with long arms and a strong frame, Paul's combination of speed and explosiveness remain a big part of his NBA potential, just as they did early in his career. He may be slightly undersized for a shooting guard, but he certainly has all the other physical tools common amongst two guards at the NBA level.
With Meyers Leonard entering the 2012 NBA Draft, the Illini had to rely heavily on their guards this season, and that led to a significant change in what Paul was asked to do on the offensive end. He remained the focal point of the team's offensive attack, but was relied upon heavily to showcase his athleticism and create his own shot compared to his junior season, when spot-ups and off-screen opportunities accounted for a much more significant portion of his possessions.
The key to Paul's productivity over the past two seasons, and one of his more intriguing qualities as an NBA prospect, is his ability to create his own shot. Possessing a quick first step, an explosive burst when attacking off the dribble, and a strong frame to exploit smaller guards, Paul can shake defenders one-on-one and turn the corner operating off ball screens. He's a capable ball-handler, even running the point for stretches this season, but has room to improve on not over-dribbling and become more adept at playing at different speeds to help prepare for the quickness of NBA defenders.
Once Paul finds open space, he's explosive enough to play above the rim and possesses sound shooting mechanics. When he was playing with patience and his shot was falling, he was a handful for opposing defenses to contain at the college level, posting a memorable 43-point outing against Ohio State in 2012 and a 35-point performance against Gonzaga this year. The issue for the talented guard has always been his decision-making and the consistency with which he is able to make plays because of it.
For someone who shoots as many 3-pointers as he does (nearly seven per game, representing over half of his overall field goal attempts), NBA scouts surely would have liked to see Paul hit more than 32% from beyond the arc. Ranking in the bottom 20 of our top-100 in true shooting percentage, Paul's shot selection is his biggest weakness and the main culprit of his mediocre scoring efficiency. Nearly 70% of his shots are jumpers, with more than half of those attempts coming off the dribble. Knocking down right around 34% of both jumpers off the dribble and off the catch, Paul limits his shooting percentages by forcing looks from beyond the arc, attempting a large proportion of his spot-up shots with a hand in his face and sometimes passing up a good shot for a more difficult one off the dribble. Part of this has to do with the large amount of offensive responsibility he was forced to shoulder on a team without great individual talent, but this has been a concern with him throughout his career.
When Paul attacks the rim, he similarly settles for difficult shots just outside the paint on occasion, sometimes looking out of control or unable able to get all the way to the rim when he puts the ball on the floor. Converting just 47% of his finishing attempts and 39% of his runners according to Synergy Sports Technology, Paul's inconsistency in the paint was a major factor in his relatively mediocre 48% 2-point percentage, which nevertheless represented the highest mark of his career.
Despite his shot selection, Paul still managed to rank among the most efficient volume isolation scorers in the NCAA this season, scoring 46% of his one-on-one attempts and finishing quite effectively when he was able to make one move and go. He got to the line at a very strong rate, and also excelled in transition, consistently doing his best work when he was able to use his speed to beat the defense to the spot on the offensive end and wasn't putting himself in a position where he'd need to make a decision as to how to score over or maneuver through help.
From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz2XG0tjWOb