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Thread: Andrea Bargnani draft bust

  1. #1
    Raptors Republic Veteran rocwell's Avatar
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    Default Andrea Bargnani draft bust

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...-years/page/40

    Where he should have been picked: No. 10

    by the way in this article we have another BC drafted kid...

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Rapstor4Life's Avatar
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    YOU ARE RUBBING SALT IN THE OPEN WOUNDS!!!! Rockwell.

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote rocwell wrote: View Post
    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...-years/page/40

    Where he should have been picked: No. 10

    by the way in this article we have another BC drafted kid...
    Blasphemy.

    Guys who should have been drafted ahead of Bargnani:

    Aldridge
    Gay
    Lowry
    Rondo
    Millsap

    Arguably:
    Redick
    Foye
    Roy

    He is 6th best case and 9th absolute worst.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
    Tim Leiweke

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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  5. #4
    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Blasphemy.

    Guys who should have been drafted ahead of Bargnani:

    Aldridge
    Gay
    Lowry
    Rondo
    Millsap

    Arguably:
    Redick
    Foye
    Roy

    He is 6th best case and 9th absolute worst.
    Another strike for BleacherReport being crap. Lol

    Since they're including injuries as being reason for being a 'bust', I'd say BRoy would fall behind Bargs at this point, as Andrea still has a chance to at least contribute. Roy is set for the pastures.

    Redick I'd say is a tie with Bargs. But in the case of the tie, it goes to the 7 footer who should have been good.

    So I'm with you on 6th being a more accurate spot for him. Generous, perhaps, but probably about right.


    But I'd also agree with BleacherReport (gasp!) in saying he's not a top-10 bust of all time.
    I still believe in him .. just not on this team. Lol
    In Masai we Trust.

  6. #5
    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
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    Quote rocwell wrote: View Post
    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...-years/page/40

    Where he should have been picked: No. 10

    by the way in this article we have another BC drafted kid...
    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Blasphemy.

    Guys who should have been drafted ahead of Bargnani:

    Aldridge
    Gay
    Lowry
    Rondo
    Millsap

    Arguably:
    Redick
    Foye
    Roy

    He is 6th best case and 9th absolute worst.
    I think it's a little unfair to review past drafts with hindsight. At the very least, draft picks should only be compared to other players who were legitimately being considered at that draft slot. Also, too often in hindsight, the situations from back then are not fully accounted for.

    I really don't think the Bargnani pick was that bad. I remember agreeing with most of the experts that there were essentially 6 key guys in play for the top pick: 1 C (Bargnani), 2 PF (Aldridge & Thomas) and 3 SF/SG (Gay, Roy, Foye). Considering the Raptors had an up-and-coming star in Bosh at PF, I really think Toronto's decision came down to Bargnani or a wing. With Roy being retired and Foye being a role player, that means that the 'best' legitimate pick for Toronto was either Bargnani or Gay, meaning Bargnani was the 2nd best option (at worst).

    Personally, I was hoping for either Roy or Gay, since the league was becoming so guard/wing dominated. I thought either of them would be a great compliment to Bosh. With all the comparisons to Dirk floating around, I wasn't overly upset/surprised with the Bargnani pick, though I did think he had more risk associated with him at #1 than Roy or Gay. Even of all 6 players, I still think that Bargnani ranks no worse than #3, which isn't actually too bad at all.

    The biggest knock against Bargnani was that he was heralded by Toronto management/coaching/fans as a Dirk-lite savior, of sorts. Combined with the stigma of being a #1 overall pick, the expectations lumped on him were way too high from the start. Had he been drafted even in the 4-10 range and considered nothing more than a piece of the puzzle, I don't think there would be nearly the same level of hate towards him that we see today. Ironically, as good as Aldridge is, I'm not sure he would be living up to expectations either had he been drafted 1st overall, since he hasn't proven capable of leading/carrying a team by himself as the #1 option.
    Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Thu Jun 20th, 2013 at 04:59 PM.

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    Big men considered "bust" drafted #1 overall (recent history)....rank them.

    1. Oden
    2. Andrea
    3. Kwame Brown
    4. Olowakandi
    5. Pervis Ellison
    6. Joe Barry Carroll

  8. #7
    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    I think it's a little unfair to review past drafts with hindsight.
    I'd like to point out that if you can't review past drafts with hindsight, you can't really review past drafts at all. Every player who was drafted where they were was a result of a decision maker deeming they made the most sense, for one reason or another vs everyone else available at that time. In that sense they were all the right pick at the time. Heck we could (don't want to, but just saying we could....) even justify Hoffa by the teams need for a tough minded C


    Definetely there is a fair argument for debating why a player was drafted (eg. need, or reputation, or height etc), but at the end of the day, what you do vs where you were drafted vs who was drafted after you will always be the deciding factor of 'draft bust or draft boom'.

    The biggest knock against Bargnani was that he was heralded by Toronto management/coaching/fans as a Dirk-lite savior, of sorts. Combined with the stigma of being a #1 overall pick, the expectations lumped on him were way too high from the start
    To be honest I don't think that matters. You can't draft at #1 and then say "yeah I know we didn't get the best guy in this draft, we could have gotten him lower so don't expect alot" Maybe in the teens+ you could get away with that, but not #1. If you don't take one of the best players from the draft at #1 (or even top few), you drafted a bust.

    I imagine every #1 through #3 or so has had similar expectation to Bargnani put on them.

    (I also have to wonder how many opportunities he was given because he was drafted #1. Had Colangelo drafted him at 10, would he have been force fed minutes and a 'franchise player' role? Would the accountability treatment have left him sitting at or coming off the end of the bench somehwere?)

    Not Bargnani's fault he was drafted #1, but that doesn't change he was drafted #1.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Puffer's Avatar
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    Not sure how many of you read the article explaining the methodology, but Adam plotted win shares for the first four years (time the rookies were potentially under the drafting teams control) of every player drafted from 1982 - 2009. He then plotted them on a graph showing drat position and win shares. This created a curve that gave you average win shares for the 1st through 60th draft pick. He then selected the 50 players that were the furthest off the line for their position in the draft.

    So you can't say about any position "that's not accurate." Well, actually you can, but then you are simply contrasting your opinion with the actual results of the exercise. Like plotting cars picked by auto columnists for reliability, in the year they come out, and then disagreeing with the reported years on the road after 25 years of tracking. The results are what the results are.

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote Puffer wrote: View Post
    Not sure how many of you read the article explaining the methodology, but Adam plotted win shares for the first four years (time the rookies were potentially under the drafting teams control) of every player drafted from 1982 - 2009. He then plotted them on a graph showing drat position and win shares. This created a curve that gave you average win shares for the 1st through 60th draft pick. He then selected the 50 players that were the furthest off the line for their position in the draft.

    So you can't say about any position "that's not accurate." Well, actually you can, but then you are simply contrasting your opinion with the actual results of the exercise. Like plotting cars picked by auto columnists for reliability, in the year they come out, and then disagreeing with the reported years on the road after 25 years of tracking. The results are what the results are.
    Thanks, Puffer.

    I did not read the methodology as it was B/R so in my ignorance I thought there was none

    I would think Bargnani's results are skewed drastically by this last season. I mean, he was never great to begin with - especially with regards to advanced stats. When looking at his draft year, I just don't think he is the 10th worst player. Obviously there is a great bit of subjectivity in my opinion and I think, for me, this is a good example when mixing the eye test with actual stats.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
    Tim Leiweke

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

  12. #10
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Guys, this could have went down far worse. Some "experts" were comparing Adam Morrison to Larry Bird. Just be thankful Michael Jordan wasn't calling the shots.

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    Raptors Republic Rookie JalenRose5's Avatar
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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    Guys, this could have went down far worse. Some "experts" were comparing Adam Morrison to Larry Bird. Just be thankful Michael Jordan wasn't calling the shots.
    +1 This actually makes me feel better.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Miekenstien's Avatar
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    better than olowakandi
    that one has to be the worst pick ever

    i feel bad for morrison. really wanted hiim to succeed, but guy is so slow.

    i think bargs and kwame weren't "busts" per se. both are going to have long careers, two serviceable players who happened to be picked first overall. on the shot callers more than the players as far as busts go.

    30 out of 30 teams would have taken oden first overall that year, even knowing he had knee surgery coming up before his first season.

    ps- i guess we have to make two lists one on the players "busts" and one on the gm "bad picks".

    the bargnani draft i wanted aldridge and i don't much follow european ball so had no idea who andrea was, or jv for that matter(wanted kemba and was pretty vocal about it), but the day bc starting touting andrea and i did my due dilligence, andrea was a very viable first overall selection. very good scorer with size, speed and ball handling who had been playing against men for a couple years. now we are where we are and since darko, poor pistons, and bargs i don't know how much to trust "played against men" anymore. come on jv, make me believe
    Last edited by Miekenstien; Fri Jun 21st, 2013 at 01:57 AM.
    For The Win

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    Bargnani has nothing on Hoffa! and they rated Hoffa as 15th worst bust. When you look at who the Raptors could have picked instead of Hoffa (A.I, Josh Smith) you realize what a huge bust move it was.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    Guys, this could have went down far worse. Some "experts" were comparing Adam Morrison to Larry Bird. Just be thankful Michael Jordan wasn't calling the shots.
    But then we would have been even worse the next year and could have contended for the Oden-Durant draft pick. Sadly, we would have picked Oden.

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    Quote Hotshot wrote: View Post
    Bargnani has nothing on Hoffa! and they rated Hoffa as 15th worst bust. When you look at who the Raptors could have picked instead of Hoffa (A.I, Josh Smith) you realize what a huge bust move it was.
    This is true! Same as the argument about comparing past drafts. There's no way you can look back now and say Millsap would have been a better pick. Yes, now it looks that way, but you think the GM that picked him 1st overall would still have a job? Sure, years later he'd look like a genious, but then eveyone would say "sure he's good, but you could have picked....." Unless you pick THE OBVIOUS best player out of the players available, you will always be second guessed. Even if the player you didn't pick sat on the bench for five years and suddenly developed a game. Bargs pick could have been worse. Hoffa, probably not.

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