Joe Johnson at 32 years and $20M,
K Mart at 30 years and $13M,
Crawford at 33 years and $5.2M,
or DeRozan at 23 and $9.5 (note, we haven't seen what he brings to the table yet at that price),
I take DD all day, every day.
Regarding K-Mart and Crawford, disagree.
I'm going to assume DD stays what he is. I have asked anyone and everyone on the forums to find an example of a 23/24 year old with 4 years experience having played 35-37mpg over previous 3 seasons missing just 3 games who suddenly takes a huge leap forward. I've yet had anyone offer such player. I'm not sure one exists.
FG% - JJ 43%, DD 44.5%
3P% - JJ 30.5%, DD 28.3%
FT% - JJ 75%, DD 83%
Not much to choose between those numbers. JJ played 40+ minutes that year, with Nash feeding him cherries. Comparing rebounds and assists per 36 minutes, JJ had a mere 0.4 rebounds more, and 1.5 assists more. 3 years later, JJ began his 5 year run of All-Star games.
I was looking through BBR.. there are only 40 players ever that have had 15ppg, averaged 30mpg and started in 290 games for their first 4 seasons:
Of the 40 couldn't find a single guy that made a huge leap from year 4 to year 5. Because of DeMar's work ethic I would assume he will plateau for a few years before he gets worse, but I don't see him getting exponentially better either.. the probability would be very very low.
Lockout year would make it 3.81 years for DD compared to 3 for JJ.
You chose year 3. In year 2 JJ shot 36.6% from 3pt. In year 4 he averaged 47.8% from 3pt. Plus he was always a good rebounder and creator for others.
Besides '01-'02 and '03-'04, JJ has never shot less than 35.6% from 3pt.
JJ in his 4th year with PHX averaged 4.7 rebs per game and 3.2 ast per36.
DD averaged 3.8 rebs and 2.4 ast per36.
JJ averaged 24% more rebounds and 33% more assists after year 4. That is not insignificant and that only highlights the difference in talent between the two players. JJ>>>>DD
Also, JJ made a jump to the next level after year 4 in ATLANTA because he became the franchise player and go to guy. That was not happening in PHX with Nash, Stoudemire, and Marion (in his prime).
DeRozan has already been option 1a or 1b for 3 seasons.
"Lockout year would make it 3.81 years for DD compared to 3 for JJ." I guess you choose to ignore other factors in the lockout season, than your selective number of games played. I prefer to look at bigger picture and see 5 months of off season with zero ability to even talk to coaching staff, never mind actually work with them, virtually no training camp with a new head coach, and a cruelly compressed season composed of virtually zero development time,,,,, as big factors in saying that wasn't even worth 1/2 a season of normal development,,,,,,,,,, but stick to those non-selective number of games played if it serves your purpose.
The rest is yet more attempts to define finite criteria for comparison, but have fun. I tried to point out that 23 year olds can make big progress when they work hard on their game, but you're way too determined to prove your opinion as fact for my time. Hell, I see above that you say that it's "possible" that DD can make big strides, out of one side of your mouth, then immediately follow it up with comparing it to the possibility of the sun not coming up, an impossibility. Hyperbole anyway?
You are right. It is likely closer to 3.5 than 3.81 based on a lot of the factors you gave.
You tried to point out 23 year olds can make big progress - and you did! The problem is the big progress came with a bigger opportunity. How much more of an opportunity to show what a player is capable of over the last 3 seasons does DeRozan get? He has been essentially the first option for most of that time due to Bargnani's injuries. As an aside when you say player x had just 1 rebound more per game than player y per36 minutes and we are only talking 3/4/5 rebounds, 1 rebound is a dramatic increase - that was my point.
There are 40 players by the way according to planetmars search of players:
mpg > 30
ppg > 15
games started > 290
Lets try another search... I'll do my own since I'm the one asking for someone to find me a player and I will loosen criteria that planetmars used:
mpg > 30
games played > 280 (avg 70 games per season)
field goal attempts per game > 11
194 players come up for all positions over nearly 70 years.
Much like planetmars, I've yet to find a player who made a huge leap from year 4 to year 5 and I agree with his results. There were players who saw dramatic increases in shooting percentages from year 4 to year 5 but if you look at year 1/2/3 usually there is a history or prior shown ability to make the shot.
With the amount of opportunity that DeRozan has been given, you know what you are getting.
A big issue people seem to be forgetting, neglecting, or are in denial over is this: work ethic does not replace natural talent.
Look through the careers of the type of players everyone is hoping DeRozan will become - they showed potential for greatness early in their career.
As for my hyberbole, that was exactly the point. 70 years of NBA history and we can't find a single player who made a significant jump from year 4 to year 5 after being given 3 years of unlimited minutes and opportunities. For DeRozan to earn that contract, a significant jump in 3 point shooting, defense, rebounding, and assists is needed.
The four years after that he improved. His FG% was .504, 3pt% of .432 and averaged 10.6 assists a game.
Just did this for laughs. DD is not Steve Nash. Having said that, Nash took his game very seriously and is famous for how hard he worked in the off-season. I don't know if he picked up his intensity after 5 or 6 years in the league, because after his first 4 years he kind of plateaued, for three years, then his numbers took off, as I have indicated. I don't believe he suddenly changed genetically. If he didn't start juicing, then the change had to be mental, in terms of attitude, and also in terms of effort during the off-season.
Last edited by Puffer; Sat Jun 29th, 2013 at 05:32 PM.
- I want to see the Bledsoe/DeRozan trade happen.
- Build the team around JV and Gay
- I want to see them acquire or sign an all-star caliber PF like an Al Jefferson.
- I want Lowry and Bargnani gone
- Seth Curry!!
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