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Thread: The fallacy of DeRozan's improving 3 point shooting!

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Default The fallacy of DeRozan's improving 3 point shooting!

    The underlying argument for DeRozan fans is the hope and potential for the future based on a) his work ethic, and b) his improvements from year to year.

    I can't argue the guys work ethic. I could argue his basketball IQ but I won't.

    The real point of the thread is his improvements from year to year - specifically his 3pt shooting.

    Before 3pt shooting, take a look at this:
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...r_minute::none

    I'm not sure there is drastic improvement in many areas. Certainly not enough to make one say, "He has continuously improved every year in the league" from a statistical standpoint.


    Lets look specifically at his 3pt shooting:

    year 1: 25% on 0.2 attempts per game (4/16)
    year 2: 9.6% on 0.6 attempts per game (5/52)
    year 3: 26.1% on 1.5 attempts per game (24/92)
    year 4: 28.3% on 1.5 attempts per game (34/120)

    Alright, looks good. Obvious regression from year 1 to year 2 combined with obvious improvement from year 2 to year 3 and 3 to 4 on more attempts each year. Awesome!



    But what happens if we:

    1) remove DeRozan's first 6 games of year 3 where he shot 10 for 16?
    year 3 becomes: 18.4% on 0.75 attempts per game (14/76) in 57 games

    and

    2) remove DeRozan's final 3 games of year 4 where he shot 9/12?
    year 4: 23.1% on 0.73 attempts per game (24/108) in 79 games



    Essentially if you remove 9 of 145 games (first 6 and last 3) from year 3 and 4, the statistics become much less encouraging for DeRozan's "hope" and "potential" at the 3pt shot over a much larger sample of 136 consecutive games.



    I'd love nothing more than to proven incorrect on DeRozan's potential moving forward - just like I was with the notion of building around Bargnani. But even if he does improve his 3pt shooting SIGNIFICANTLY, he is still below average in rebounding, assists, and defense with little signs of consistent improvement over the last 4 seasons.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
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    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar enlightenment's Avatar
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    I can play this game too!:

    If you remove
    Nov 12: 1/6
    Jan 18: 0/3
    Apr 1st: 0/3

    from last years total, all of a sudden by removing 3 selectively chosen games Derozan now has 33/108 makes!!
    That means in 79 games, Derozan had a 3pt% of 30.5%!!
    The Baltic Beast is unstoppable!

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote enlightenment wrote: View Post
    I can play this game too!:

    If you remove
    Nov 12: 1/6
    Jan 18: 0/3
    Apr 1st: 0/3

    from last years total, all of a sudden by removing 3 selectively chosen games Derozan now has 33/108 makes!!
    That means in 79 games, Derozan had a 3pt% of 30.5%!!
    That is good. I like it.

    I think the difference would be I selected consecutive games where he did most of "improvements".

    My point is everyone gets hot. If you remove his hot streaks to start 2011-12 and end 2012-13, he has 136 consecutive games with little to get excited about.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
    Tim Leiweke

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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    Is there any way to ignore thread titles from members? I can't see any of his posts, which is what I want, but I'd like to avoid the threads all together.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar enlightenment's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    That is good. I like it.

    I think the difference would be I selected consecutive games where he did most of "improvements".

    My point is everyone gets hot. If you remove his hot streaks to start 2011-12 and end 2012-13, he has 136 consecutive games with little to get excited about.
    You are right, everyone does get hot, but everyone also goes cold! The point of the seasons end average is to see the story behind the entire season. I dont see it a far stretch to have Derozan go above .300% next season, and I would point to D-wades 3pt improvement which only happened after his 5th season. In fact, leading up to that season his percentages were very similar to Derozans!

    05-06 -> 17%
    06-07 -> 26%
    07-08 -> 28%
    08-09 -> 32%

    He then sustained his 3pt shooting above .300 for the next 3 seasons. As you can see, it is very possible for a player to steadily improve on his 3pt shooting in constant increments.

    Derozans looks like this:

    9.6%
    26%
    28%
    And to make me happy, my projection for next season is
    30%

    Like I said in the other thread, I dont believe it is TOO much to ask!
    The Baltic Beast is unstoppable!

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    Raptors Republic Superstar enlightenment's Avatar
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    Quote drunkmunky wrote: View Post
    Is there any way to ignore thread titles from members? I can't see any of his posts, which is what I want, but I'd like to avoid the threads all together.
    You've blocked Matt52??
    not nice..
    The Baltic Beast is unstoppable!

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote enlightenment wrote: View Post
    You are right, everyone does get hot, but everyone also goes cold! The point of the seasons end average is to see the story behind the entire season. I dont see it a far stretch to have Derozan go above .300% next season, and I would point to D-wades 3pt improvement which only happened after his 5th season. In fact, leading up to that season his percentages were very similar to Derozans!

    05-06 -> 17%
    06-07 -> 26%
    07-08 -> 28%
    08-09 -> 32%

    He then sustained his 3pt shooting above .300 for the next 3 seasons. As you can see, it is very possible for a player to steadily improve on his 3pt shooting in constant increments.

    Derozans looks like this:

    9.6%
    26%
    28%
    And to make me happy, my projection for next season is
    30%

    Like I said in the other thread, I dont believe it is TOO much to ask!
    Wade has shot over 30% in 4 seasons of his 10 year career: rookie, 6, 7, 8.

    Wade maxed out at 31.7% and then has essentially declined for the last 4 years.

    Even at 30-32% 3pt shooting, that is still bad.

    Comparing Wade to DeRozan also doesn't cut it because DeRozan is not nearly as efficient nor does he rebound, create, defend, or impact the game in any way that Wade does.

    http://www.thenbageek.com/players/co...utf8=%E2%9C%93
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
    Tim Leiweke

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote drunkmunky wrote: View Post
    Is there any way to ignore thread titles from members? I can't see any of his posts, which is what I want, but I'd like to avoid the threads all together.
    So you can't read anything eh?

    No.

    I won't.

    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
    Tim Leiweke

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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    Quote enlightenment wrote: View Post
    You've blocked Matt52??
    not nice..
    It happened.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar enlightenment's Avatar
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    Quote drunkmunky wrote: View Post
    It happened.
    Well since he is one of the most active posters here, you're going to miss out on a lot of content..
    The Baltic Beast is unstoppable!

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    Quote drunkmunky wrote: View Post
    Is there any way to ignore thread titles from members? I can't see any of his posts, which is what I want, but I'd like to avoid the threads all together.
    lol, now that Bargs has one foot out the door, and BC is gone, DeMar is the new whipping boy for some who seem to have too much time on their hands, to say nothing of blatant selective use of stats to support such opinion.

    I don't know how often I read here how Raps fans mostly want players who give a shit and work hard, then we have something to cheer for, and give hope. Now the tune changes toward a player that gives that, and they're all experts on how his development is going to go from here. Those Team USA people must be out to lunch, and don't know NBA basketball at all. They should come to RR for advise.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar enlightenment's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Wade has shot over 30% in 4 seasons of his 10 year career: rookie, 6, 7, 8.

    Wade maxed out at 31.7% and then has essentially declined for the last 4 years.

    Even at 30-32% 3pt shooting, that is still bad.

    Comparing Wade to DeRozan also doesn't cut it because DeRozan is not nearly as efficient nor does he rebound, create, defend, or impact the game in any way that Wade does.

    http://www.thenbageek.com/players/co...utf8=%E2%9C%93
    I was isolating 3pt% in my comparison with Wade. I know that 30% is still a little below average, but its serviceable as a threat and can let us stretch the floor a little more. Our big issue right now is that we lack floor spacing with our backcourt, but if Kyle can hit 34%+, Rudy has potential to hit anywhere between 34-39%, and if Demar sticks a 30%+, it wont be as noticeable of a weakness.
    I still have faith in Rudy and Demar working well together, but it depends on some better outside shooting from both.
    The Baltic Beast is unstoppable!

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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Wade has shot over 30% in 4 seasons of his 10 year career: rookie, 6, 7, 8.

    Wade maxed out at 31.7% and then has essentially declined for the last 4 years.

    Even at 30-32% 3pt shooting, that is still bad.

    Comparing Wade to DeRozan also doesn't cut it because DeRozan is not nearly as efficient nor does he rebound, create, defend, or impact the game in any way that Wade does.

    http://www.thenbageek.com/players/co...utf8=%E2%9C%93
    But your thread is about 3 point shooting, not rebounding, creating, defending, impact.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Mr.Z's Avatar
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    It shows he has potential to make threes though, it proves he's not completely incapable of ever being able to ever become an average 3-point shooter. I don't think in off-seasons past he ever made "improved three-point shooting" his #1 goal.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Mr.Z's Avatar
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    Last off-season he made it his goal to improve his post game which he did, getting stronger and learning to take advantage of mismatches against smaller defenders, and it resulted in a lot more free-throw attempts and makes.

    Lets see what he can do when this improved three point shooting becomes his point of focus going into next season. I have faith.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Mr.Z's Avatar
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    Also, drunkmunky, you're drunk. Blocking Matt means you're eliminating yourself from like 90% of the conversations lol

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    Raptors Republic Starter Dino4life's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post

    But what happens if we:

    1) remove DeRozan's first 6 games of year 3 where he shot 10 for 16?
    year 3 becomes: 18.4% on 0.75 attempts per game (14/76) in 57 games

    and

    2) remove DeRozan's final 3 games of year 4 where he shot 9/12?
    year 4: 23.1% on 0.73 attempts per game (24/108) in 79 games



    Essentially if you remove 9 of 145 games (first 6 and last 3) from year 3 and 4, the statistics become much less encouraging for DeRozan's "hope" and "potential" at the 3pt shot over a much larger sample of 136 consecutive games.
    Actually i think you're over Looking the fact that with your new calculations he shows an even bigger improvement of nearly 5%. So no matter how you look at it, his work in the gym is paying, just not as fast as some of us would have hoped. And probably because we have no one else to point to finger at since the Bargnani Kool-Aid ran dry.

    Derozan, is young, he's not our worst contract, he's one of our best players regardless of where he ranks league wide. Even if he is our best trade asset, why would we get rid of our Ace in the hole right away ? might as well trim the fat first and get a clearer picture before and IF we move him.

    I get that Derozan is not an All-star, and there's a possibility he might never be, But no team in the league has ever won with 5 All-stars, why cant he be our Solid starter or 6th Man ? because BC said he was the truth ? because he got over paid ? I'm not saying he's untradable, all i'm saying is, it makes no sense to trade him first. He's the one constant with Amir, JV is the future, why cant we trade the million other issues we have first before letting go of our best asset ? If Bargs and Darko hadn't been selected before all-stars and HOF, if bargs wasn't making 12 million next year, they wouldn't get push out of the league. Kwame Brown is subject of infinite jokes, but because no one in that draft was an impact player right away and he only make 2-5 mil a year, he's laughing his ass to the bank 13 years later.

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote enlightenment wrote: View Post
    I was isolating 3pt% in my comparison with Wade. I know that 30% is still a little below average, but its serviceable as a threat and can let us stretch the floor a little more. Our big issue right now is that we lack floor spacing with our backcourt, but if Kyle can hit 34%+, Rudy has potential to hit anywhere between 34-39%, and if Demar sticks a 30%+, it wont be as noticeable of a weakness.
    I still have faith in Rudy and Demar working well together, but it depends on some better outside shooting from both.
    You are right.

    I went off topic.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
    Tim Leiweke

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote Mr.Z wrote: View Post
    Also, drunkmunky, you're drunk. Blocking Matt means you're eliminating yourself from like 90% of the conversations lol
    quality over quantity.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
    Tim Leiweke

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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    Raptors Republic Starter KHD's Avatar
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    I don't think DeRozan has improved his 3pt shooting very much to this point, no. However, I am hoping that it has become apparent to him (and Gay, on another note) that it is the most important facet of his (offensive) game to improve right now, and that he'll apply his much-praised work ethic in that area.

    DD's shooting form is not fundamentally broken, so I think that with practice he should be able to improve.

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