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Thread: So what happens if Rudy Gay opts out?

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    Raptors Republic Rookie AngryRapsFan's Avatar
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    Default So what happens if Rudy Gay opts out?

    I saw a similar thread at the RealGM forums and thought it would make for good discussion here at RR.

    What if Rudy doesn't pick up his player option next year and become a FA? Do the Raptors even want him? Or can we even land a bigger FA than Gay? I'm interested in hearing what y'all think.
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    Raptors Republic Starter Dino4life's Avatar
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    let him walk, hope he chooses a team with no cap space, collect future draft picks.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Hopefully we would know his plan prior to the trade deadline. I wouldn't want him to walk for nothing.

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    Administrator Dr. James Naismith's Avatar
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    Rudy won't walk away from his player option considering he'll be making just under a cool $20 million.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    I don't think Rudy's been sheltered from the fact that he's overpaid. Opting out would be the result of some piss poor advice.
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    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
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    First, I doubt he'll walk away from $19M.

    Second, given the contracts handed out to comparable wing players (talent/age/past contracts, etc...) this year, I think $12-13M per season would be fair value for Gay. I'd also be quite happy to keep him on the Raptors for that type of contract - at $12M per season (same as Iguodala), he'd suddenly be making DeRozan's $9.5M per season look very overpaid.

    Of course, if he could be traded for a good young player/prospect and a 2014 1st round pick, I wouldn't be upset with MU going that route either.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran LBF's Avatar
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    If he does...thatwould be shitty. I really can not predict what would happen.
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    Super Moderator thead's Avatar
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    I would think if Masai couldn't firm up a 3 yr extension by the trade deadline you move him while you still hold the power

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    Raptors Republic Starter Dino4life's Avatar
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    Quote thead wrote: View Post
    I would think if Masai couldn't firm up a 3 yr extension by the trade deadline you move him while you still hold the power
    Masai Ujiri was there for the Chris Bosh contract year right ? either way i think he knows better than to have a repeat of that 4 years later. Plus the fact that he didn't rule out trading Gay when detroit called means he's already bracing himself for that possibility and he's just gonna let teams outbid each other until the trade deadline when he gets offered a great package.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar planetmars's Avatar
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    There is probably a 70%-80% chance he keeps his option, but MU needs to gauge that situation sooner then later. If the Raptors want to get a tangible asset for Gay then it would make sense to trade him now or else get into that Bosh situation all over again (although it worked out well for MU and Carmelo).

    Let's look at each scenario:

    1) Gay declines his option, and then resigns with the Raptors for much less but for a long term deal (like 4 years / $13M).

    This would probably my most preferable scenario, but probably very unlikely.


    2) Gay declines his option, and signs elsewhere for a long term deal.

    The Raptors lose Ed Davis (and a 2nd rounder) for nothing. They could do a S&T, but I don't see it happening (Denver did not do a S&T with AI for example)... but they become serious free agent players in 2014.


    3) Gay keeps his option. He becomes a UFA in 2015 and resigns with the Raptors.

    This is probably the most likely outcome, assuming the Raptors are interested. They will have his Bird rights so can resign him to any value even if they are above the cap.


    4) Gay keeps his option. He becomes a UFA in 2015 and resigns with another team.

    The Raptors could lose him for nothing (like scenario 1), or they could do a S&T but then they could be stuck with crappy assets.


    5) The Raptors extend him now.. this is the least desirable option as his starting salary would be about $19M a year.


    I'm in the anti-tanking crowd, so I'd prefer to keep Gay and hope he opts out so that he can resign for a cheaper/longer term deal. But if he does leave for nothing, well $20M of cap space is not so bad either. Not really that bad of a worst case scenario.

    Gay seems to be a guy that will go where the money is, and having to overpay him again just to keep him doesn't jive with me. It will definitely be a good conversation to have a year from now assuming he's still with the team.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Soft Euro's Avatar
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    Quote Dr. James Naismith wrote: View Post
    Rudy won't walk away from his player option considering he'll be making just under a cool $20 million.
    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    I don't think Rudy's been sheltered from the fact that he's overpaid. Opting out would be the result of some piss poor advice.
    In 2010 Jefferson opted out of a 15+ million year. He signed a new deal for something like 40/4 afterwards. Apparently they had negotiated this deal before he opted out. It's possible to do the same with Rudy. He opts out and gets a new contract for something like 52/4 (or 60/4 - more likely).
    Last edited by Soft Euro; Mon Jul 8th, 2013 at 01:11 PM.

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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    I don't think Rudy's been sheltered from the fact that he's overpaid. Opting out would be the result of some piss poor advice.
    I'm not sure about that. Another thing he's not been sheltered from is that a career can end in an instant with an injury. It's not such an easy decision to hold on to that $19M, when it could be your last, while staring down let's say $52M guaranteed for 4 years. Iggy walked away from $16M to sign for $12M/yr for 4 years.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar isaacthompson's Avatar
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    I'm 50/50 on this. A lot of players are opting out these days in favour of long-term deals, and rightfully so. Kirilenko just did it with the T'Wolves. If we're a contender by then, then I say it's a sure thing. Anything else is up in the air.
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    Raptors Republic All-Star Fully's Avatar
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    4 years/ $44 million.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar iblastoff's Avatar
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    Quote planetmars wrote: View Post
    I'm in the anti-tanking crowd, so I'd prefer to keep Gay and hope he opts out so that he can resign for a cheaper/longer term deal. But if he does leave for nothing, well $20M of cap space is not so bad either. Not really that bad of a worst case scenario.
    not a bad scenario? its a horrible scenario! sure we gain some cap space, but now we'd be severely limited in trading ability, which is probably the only way we would get equal/better talent/value.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar planetmars's Avatar
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    Quote iblastoff wrote: View Post
    not a bad scenario? its a horrible scenario! sure we gain some cap space, but now we'd be severely limited in trading ability, which is probably the only way we would get equal/better talent/value.
    There would be free agent players.. could sign someone else and have more (or even better) assets that they could move in different deals. So I don't really see how they would be limited in trading ability.. if anything it would open up more flexibility for lop sided trades since they would have so much cap space.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar iblastoff's Avatar
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    Quote planetmars wrote: View Post
    There would be free agent players.. could sign someone else and have more (or even better) assets that they could move in different deals. So I don't really see how they would be limited in trading ability.. if anything it would open up more flexibility for lop sided trades since they would have so much cap space.
    whens the last time we signed anyone worthwhile via FA?

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    Raptors Republic Superstar planetmars's Avatar
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    Quote iblastoff wrote: View Post
    whens the last time we signed anyone worthwhile via FA?
    New regime.. could bring in different players. Detroit for example was able to get Josh Smith. He's not a superstar, but a talented player that could easily be flipped in a year or two for other capable players.

    The Raptors could open their wallets for a similar player.

    Also 2014 is the Wiggins draft year.. plus it's the year that Lebron/Wade/Bosh can all become free agents (if they chose too). Now let's say a team is willing to dump assets so that they can chase Lebron or Wade in free agency. And let's say they need a team with cap space so that they can dump some of those assets with draft picks (for example). Wouldn't having $20M in cap space be a good thing (for example)?

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    Raptors Republic Superstar iblastoff's Avatar
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    Quote planetmars wrote: View Post
    New regime.. could bring in different players. Detroit for example was able to get Josh Smith. He's not a superstar, but a talented player that could easily be flipped in a year or two for other capable players.

    The Raptors could open their wallets for a similar player.

    Also 2014 is the Wiggins draft year.. plus it's the year that Lebron/Wade/Bosh can all become free agents (if they chose too). Now let's say a team is willing to dump assets so that they can chase Lebron or Wade in free agency. And let's say they need a team with cap space so that they can dump some of those assets with draft picks (for example). Wouldn't having $20M in cap space be a good thing (for example)?
    realistically, its pretty obvious lebron/wade/bosh are all sticking together for another year. so thats a pretty far-fetched scenario.

    don't forget the stipulation for being able to afford a higher priced player via FA is because of rudy gay *choosing* to leave. i doubt that puts us in a favourable light for other players to want to sign here when arguably our best player chooses to walk.

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    Super Moderator thead's Avatar
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    something else to consider. He is coming back a lot stronger with fixed vision. He plays elite level bball this season 25pts 8rebounds 4assists a block and a steal a game. He does so well that he opts out so that he doesn't HAVE to compete with the huge 2015 FA crowd. Being the marquee 2014 FA get would likely land him in a better position.

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